Roma v Bologna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 23 August 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 10
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
7 – 6
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.16
Goals − xG
-0.48 – -0.44
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Roma win
47.7%
Draw
27.9%
Bologna win
24.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Roma are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 27.0 xG
conceded 4
from 6.6 xG
Bologna are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLDWWDLLD last 10
scored 11
from 14.7 xG
conceded 13
from 10.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.56–1.05 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.38–1.17 | 1-1 13% | 47% | 52% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Roma 1.48 xGBologna 0.44 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Roma attacking right
Bologna attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Roma |
Evan Ferguson | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 10' |
Roma |
Evan Ferguson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 12' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Roma |
Evan Ferguson | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Angelino |
| 22' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Shot On Post | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 22' |
Roma |
Stephan El Shaarawy | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Evan Ferguson |
| 27' |
 Bologna |
Jens Odgaard | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lorenzo De Silvestri |
| 37' |
Roma |
Wesley | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 43' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolò Cambiaghi |
| 46' |
Roma |
Wesley | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 47' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Nicolò Cambiaghi |
| 52' |
Roma |
Wesley | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 55' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lorenzo De Silvestri |
| 56' |
Roma |
Stephan El Shaarawy | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Roma |
Kouadio Kone | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Evan Ferguson |
| 63' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lorenzo De Silvestri |
| 65' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kouadio Kone |
| 67' |
Bologna |
Tommaso Pobega | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Wesley |
| 79' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Riccardo Orsolini |
| 80' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Federico Bernardeschi |
| 81' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Bernardeschi |
| 90' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.13 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Charalampos Lykogiannis |
| 91' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Neil El Aynaoui |
Players
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riccardo Orsolini AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Tommaso Pobega DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Charalampos Lykogiannis DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Lukasz Skorupski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jhon Lucumí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Remo Freuler DMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jens Odgaard AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Lorenzo De Silvestri DR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Santiago Castro Sub | 61 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Nicolò Casale DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martin Vitík Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ciro Immobile FW | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nadir Zortea Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Giovanni Fabbian Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Bernardeschi Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kouadio Kone MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.07 | 0.63 |
| Wesley DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.08 | 1.08 |
| Bryan Cristante MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mario Hermoso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Evan Ndicka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Angelino DML | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| Evan Ferguson FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.52 | 0.69 |
| Matìas Soulè Malvano AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.08 | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| Stephan El Shaarawy AMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Neil El Aynaoui Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| Paulo Dybala Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Artem Dovbyk Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Devyne Rensch Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |