Roma v Cagliari — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 28 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Roma

14:00 UTC

Cagliari

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 22 Oct, 10:58 · 147h before kick-off

Roma win

66.8%

model 65.0%

Draw

22.4%

model 21.0%

Cagliari win

10.7%

model 14.0%

672211

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (176 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 13.0%
2-0 12.6%
1-1 9.9%
2-1 9.6%
3-0 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	50.7%	Under 2.5	49.3%
BTTS yes	45.7%	BTTS no	54.3%
Roma 1+	85.6%	Roma 2+	57.7%
Cagliari 1+	53.4%	Cagliari 2+	17.8%

Expected goals 1.94 – 0.76. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

100/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

100%

★ Best pick

Roma (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 40%

68.7% fair odds 1.46

strong signal · 1169 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Cagliari (0:3)

Handicap 0:3 · usually 92%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 296 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Roma carry the stronger rating, 1755 Elo against 1528.
Roma have created 2.66 xG a match over their last five while Cagliari have allowed 1.84.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.
At home Roma average 2.47 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Roma have an estimated 66.8% win probability, against 22.4% for the draw and 10.7% for Cagliari. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.94 for Roma and 0.76 for Cagliari.

Why Roma

Roma carry the stronger rating, 1755 Elo against 1528. Roma have created 2.66 xG a match over their last five while Cagliari have allowed 1.84. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five. At home Roma average 2.47 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.4%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Cagliari can win

Cagliari have created 1.58 xG a match over their last five while Roma have allowed 0.99. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Cagliari average 1.88 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Roma were missing 1.99 expected goal involvements a match against 0.67.

Key players

Roma's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Donyell Malen (0.81), Paulo Dybala (0.60), Artem Dovbyk (0.30). Cagliari's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Daniel Maldini (0.35), Sebastiano Esposito (0.33), Paul Mendy (0.30).

Availability

2 of Roma's top three contributors did not start their last match. 64% of Roma's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Cagliari's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Cagliari's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Roma: 53% possession, 19.0 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.22 xG a match from set pieces. Cagliari: 40% possession, 10.0 shots a match, 18.8 faced, 0.36 xG a match from set pieces. Roma's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Roma are the model's most likely outcome at 66.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 13.0%. Confidence 100/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

333 sports channels, playing now →

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Roma are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWWWWWWDDW last 10 scored 23 from 26.6 xG conceded 5 from 9.9 xG

Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWWLWWWDL last 10 scored 10 from 15.8 xG conceded 11 from 18.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	652114	1.94–0.76	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	652114	1.94–0.77	1-0 13%	51%	46%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to win	70.6%	73.6%	40.0%	1.84×	1.36
Draw	17.3%	19.4%	26.4%	0.73×	5.16
Cagliari to win	12.1%	13.5%	33.7%	0.40×	7.43

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma & not both score	38.0%	33.3%	22.6%	1.47×	3.00
Roma & both teams score	32.6%	29.6%	17.5%	1.69×	3.38
Draw & both teams score	13.4%	13.3%	18.6%	0.71×	7.53
Cagliari & both teams score	6.6%	8.3%	13.2%	0.63×	12.02
Cagliari & not both score	5.5%	8.3%	20.6%	0.40×	12.02
Draw & not both score	4.0%	4.9%	7.9%	0.61×	20.58

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma & over 1.5	61.2%	54.6%	29.9%	1.83×	1.83
Roma & over 2.5	50.1%	48.8%	23.3%	2.09×	2.05
Roma & under 3.5	38.7%	34.9%	29.6%	1.18×	2.87
Roma & over 3.5	31.9%	30.8%	10.6%	2.91×	3.25
Roma & under 2.5	20.4%	21.6%	16.8%	1.28×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	13.4%	12.8%	18.6%	0.69×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	12.1%	12.8%	19.7%	0.65×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	12.1%	12.8%	19.7%	0.65×	7.79
Roma & under 1.5	9.4%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Cagliari & over 1.5	8.7%	7.9%	24.6%	0.32×	12.63
Cagliari & under 3.5	8.9%	7.9%	26.3%	0.30×	12.63
Cagliari & over 2.5	7.2%	7.9%	18.1%	0.44×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.2%	7.9%	6.9%	1.16×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.2%	7.9%	6.9%	1.16×	12.63
Cagliari & under 2.5	4.9%	4.8%	15.6%	0.31×	20.81
Draw & under 1.5	4.0%	4.8%	7.9%	0.61×	20.81
Cagliari & under 1.5	3.4%	4.8%	9.1%	0.53×	20.82
Cagliari & over 3.5	3.2%	4.8%	7.5%	0.64×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (1UP)	80.6%	87.2%	55.3%	1.58×	1.15
Cagliari (1UP)	29.7%	27.4%	50.5%	0.54×	3.65

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (2UP)	70.6%	80.6%	41.8%	1.93×	1.24
Cagliari (2UP)	12.1%	14.0%	36.2%	0.39×	7.15

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to win 2nd half	53.4%	51.6%	35.0%	1.48×	1.94
2nd half drawn	29.6%	25.8%	35.0%	0.74×	3.87
Cagliari to win 2nd half	17.1%	18.0%	30.2%	0.60×	5.54

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 1.5 in 2nd half	88.3%	86.8%	85.1%	1.02×	1.15
Cagliari under 0.5 in 2nd half	55.7%	54.5%	50.0%	1.09×	1.84
Cagliari over 0.5 in 2nd half	44.3%	45.5%	50.0%	0.91×	2.20
Cagliari over 1.5 in 2nd half	11.7%	13.2%	14.9%	0.88×	7.60

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma over 0.5 in 2nd half	72.0%	73.9%	53.7%	1.38×	1.35
Roma under 1.5 in 2nd half	63.6%	63.3%	81.5%	0.78×	1.58
Roma over 1.5 in 2nd half	36.4%	36.7%	18.5%	1.98×	2.72
Roma under 0.5 in 2nd half	28.0%	26.1%	46.3%	0.56×	3.84

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (+0.5)	87.9%	88.5%	66.3%	1.33×	1.13
Cagliari (+2.5)	73.1%	73.7%	92.3%	0.80×	1.36
Roma (-0.5)	70.6%	73.6%	40.0%	1.84×	1.36
Cagliari (+1.5)	52.3%	52.4%	82.5%	0.64×	1.91
Roma (-1.5)	47.7%	47.6%	17.5%	2.71×	2.10
Cagliari (+0.5)	29.4%	26.4%	60.0%	0.44×	3.79
Roma (-2.5)	26.9%	26.3%	7.7%	3.42×	3.80
Cagliari (-0.5)	12.1%	11.5%	33.7%	0.34×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to concede	90.5%	91.8%	71.6%	1.28×	1.09
Cagliari clean sheet	9.5%	8.2%	28.4%	0.29×	12.15

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to concede in 1st half	66.2%	70.3%	42.1%	1.67×	1.42
Cagliari clean sheet in 1st half	33.8%	29.7%	57.9%	0.51×	3.37

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to concede in 2nd half	72.0%	70.8%	53.7%	1.32×	1.41
Cagliari clean sheet in 2nd half	28.0%	29.2%	46.3%	0.63×	3.43

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 6.5 corners	93.8%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Cagliari under 5.5 corners	88.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Cagliari under 4.5 corners	78.8%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Cagliari under 3.5 corners	64.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Cagliari over 2.5 corners	54.1%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Cagliari under 2.5 corners	45.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Cagliari over 3.5 corners	35.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Cagliari over 4.5 corners	21.2%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Cagliari over 5.5 corners	11.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.78
Cagliari over 6.5 corners	6.2%	10.1%	—	—	9.92

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 3.5 goals	98.8%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Cagliari under 2.5 goals	94.2%	92.4%	88.1%	1.05×	1.08
Cagliari under 1.5 goals	78.4%	76.3%	65.0%	1.17×	1.31
Cagliari over 0.5 goals	58.0%	59.4%	69.6%	0.85×	1.68
Cagliari under 0.5 goals	42.0%	40.6%	30.4%	1.33×	2.46
Cagliari over 1.5 goals	21.6%	23.7%	35.0%	0.68×	4.21
Cagliari over 2.5 goals	5.8%	7.7%	11.9%	0.64×	13.07
Cagliari over 3.5 goals	1.2%	2.5%	2.9%	0.87×	39.97

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 1.5 in 1st half	96.7%	96.1%	89.9%	1.07×	1.04
Cagliari under 0.5 in 1st half	75.3%	75.3%	58.8%	1.28×	1.33
Cagliari over 0.5 in 1st half	24.7%	24.7%	41.2%	0.60×	4.05
Cagliari over 1.5 in 1st half	3.3%	3.9%	10.1%	0.38×	25.76

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari scores equally in both	49.2%	48.3%	43.4%	1.11×	2.07
Cagliari scores more in 2nd half	35.9%	37.3%	32.8%	1.14×	2.68
Cagliari scores more in 1st half	14.9%	12.9%	23.9%	0.54×	7.73

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (away no bet)	80.3%	82.5%	60.2%	1.37×	1.21
Draw (away no bet)	19.7%	17.5%	39.8%	0.44×	5.71

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari even goals	58.8%	57.0%	55.5%	1.03×	1.76
Cagliari odd goals	41.2%	43.0%	44.5%	0.97×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	78.0%	81.4%	87.3%	0.93×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	22.0%	18.6%	12.7%	1.46×	5.36

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	73.1%	67.4%	60.2%	1.12×	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	26.9%	32.6%	39.8%	0.82×	3.07

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	68.8%	62.5%	53.4%	1.17×	1.60
Roma to score 2+ in a row	61.4%	60.1%	31.7%	1.89×	1.67
Either team to score 3+ in a row	34.6%	29.3%	17.9%	1.63×	3.42
Roma to score 3+ in a row	32.5%	29.2%	10.1%	2.89×	3.43
Cagliari to score 2+ in a row	13.4%	12.1%	27.8%	0.43×	8.29
Cagliari to score 3+ in a row	2.4%	2.5%	7.9%	0.32×	39.27

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma corners (+3.5)	96.7%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Roma corners (+2.5)	94.0%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Roma corners (+1.5)	89.8%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Roma corners (-1.5)	65.8%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Cagliari corners (+3.5)	55.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Roma corners (-2.5)	55.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Cagliari corners (+2.5)	44.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Roma corners (-3.5)	44.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Cagliari corners (+1.5)	34.2%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Cagliari corners (-1.5)	10.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Cagliari corners (-2.5)	6.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Cagliari corners (-3.5)	3.3%	4.3%	—	—	23.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	46.3%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	27.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	26.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	80.3%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	73.7%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 10.5 corners	65.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	64.1%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	56.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	53.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	46.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	43.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	35.9%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	34.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	26.3%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	19.7%	19.3%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-0	11.0%	11.5%	6.7%	1.70×	8.72
1-0	9.4%	7.4%	10.2%	0.72×	13.50
2-1	9.6%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.50
3-0	8.7%	7.4%	3.6%	2.05×	13.50
Any other score	9.2%	7.4%	2.8%	2.68×	13.50
1-1	8.1%	7.4%	11.9%	0.62×	13.50
3-1	7.5%	7.4%	3.1%	2.37×	13.50
4-0	5.1%	7.4%	1.7%	4.40×	13.51
0-0	4.0%	1.7%	7.9%	0.22×	58.30
0-1	3.4%	1.7%	9.1%	0.19×	58.30
0-2	1.5%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.31
0-3	0.4%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.32
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.0%	1.78×	58.32
1-2	3.5%	1.7%	7.5%	0.23×	58.30
1-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.31
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.38×	58.32
2-2	4.2%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	58.30
2-3	1.2%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.31
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
3-2	3.3%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.31
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-1	4.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.29
4-2	1.9%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.31
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (2nd half DNB)	75.8%	79.2%	53.7%	1.47×	1.26
Cagliari (2nd half DNB)	24.2%	20.8%	46.3%	0.45×	4.80

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma leading at HT (DNB)	85.4%	87.2%	51.1%	1.71×	1.15
Cagliari leading at HT (DNB)	14.6%	12.8%	48.9%	0.26×	7.83

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma or draw (1X)	87.9%	86.5%	66.3%	1.30×	1.16
Roma or Cagliari (12)	82.7%	80.6%	73.6%	1.10×	1.24
Cagliari or draw (X2)	29.4%	26.4%	60.0%	0.44×	3.79

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma or draw at HT	90.4%	90.8%	72.8%	1.25×	1.10
Roma or Cagliari at HT	66.1%	66.6%	55.4%	1.20×	1.50
Cagliari or draw at HT	43.6%	42.5%	71.6%	0.59×	2.35

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma or draw (1UP)	87.9%	92.0%	71.6%	1.28×	1.09
Cagliari or draw (1UP)	29.7%	32.1%	65.5%	0.49×	3.11

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma or draw in 2nd half	82.9%	82.0%	69.8%	1.17×	1.22
Roma or Cagliari in 2nd half	70.4%	74.2%	65.0%	1.14×	1.35
Cagliari or draw in 2nd half	46.6%	48.4%	65.0%	0.74×	2.07

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	53.5%	50.1%	63.5%	0.79×	2.00
Neither half drawn	46.5%	49.9%	36.5%	1.37×	2.00

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (DNB)	85.4%	87.0%	54.3%	1.60×	1.15
Cagliari (DNB)	14.6%	13.0%	45.7%	0.29×	7.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to score first	70.2%	74.9%	48.6%	1.54×	1.34
Cagliari to score first	25.8%	27.7%	43.6%	0.63×	3.61
No goal scored	4.0%	4.3%	7.9%	0.54×	23.30

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.5%	51.3%	49.2%	1.04×	1.95
Not both teams to score	47.5%	48.7%	50.8%	0.96×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.4%	41.6%	37.4%	1.11×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	29.3%	33.4%	40.1%	0.83×	3.00
Not both score & over 2.5	18.1%	21.6%	10.8%	1.99×	4.64
Both score & under 2.5	8.1%	8.3%	11.9%	0.70×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.3%	85.6%	86.5%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.7%	14.4%	13.5%	1.07×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	68.1%	67.4%	74.9%	0.90×	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	31.9%	32.6%	25.1%	1.30×	3.06

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	57.0%	60.0%	62.7%	0.96×	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	26.7%	27.4%	20.3%	1.35×	3.65
Both score 1st half only	11.1%	10.7%	12.3%	0.87×	9.38
Both score in both halves	5.2%	6.8%	4.9%	1.37×	14.81

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.7%	83.3%	82.9%	1.00×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	16.3%	16.7%	17.1%	0.98×	5.98

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	62.9%	59.8%	52.8%	1.13×	1.67
A half without a goal	37.1%	40.2%	47.2%	0.85×	2.49

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	42.9%	42.1%	48.4%	0.87×	2.37
4-6 goals	35.7%	35.1%	23.8%	1.48×	2.85
0-1 goals	16.8%	20.2%	27.0%	0.75×	4.94
7+ goals	4.6%	1.9%	1.0%	1.92×	54.04

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to score exactly 0	42.0%	37.3%	30.4%	1.23×	2.68
Cagliari to score exactly 1	36.4%	35.9%	34.7%	1.03×	2.78
Cagliari to score exactly 2	15.8%	19.6%	23.2%	0.84×	5.11
Cagliari to score 3+	5.8%	8.5%	11.9%	0.72×	11.72

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to score 3+	41.9%	35.3%	15.0%	2.35×	2.84
Roma to score exactly 2	26.3%	26.5%	24.8%	1.07×	3.77
Roma to score exactly 1	22.3%	23.3%	32.1%	0.73×	4.29
Roma to score exactly 0	9.5%	10.3%	28.4%	0.36×	9.69

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma leading at HT	56.4%	57.5%	28.4%	2.03×	1.74
Draw at HT	33.9%	33.4%	44.6%	0.75×	3.00
Cagliari leading at HT	9.6%	9.2%	27.2%	0.34×	10.86

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma -1: 1	47.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Roma -1: 2	29.4%	26.6%	—	—	3.77
Roma -1: X	22.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (0:1)	47.7%	46.2%	17.5%	2.63×	2.17
Cagliari (0:1)	29.4%	27.1%	60.0%	0.45×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	22.8%	24.2%	22.6%	1.07×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (0:2)	52.3%	58.0%	82.5%	0.70×	1.72
Roma (0:2)	26.9%	24.0%	7.7%	3.13×	4.16
Draw (0:2)	20.8%	20.3%	10.0%	2.03×	4.93

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (0:3)	73.1%	77.7%	92.3%	0.84×	1.29
Draw (0:3)	14.1%	10.0%	4.7%	2.13×	10.02
Roma (0:3)	12.8%	10.0%	3.1%	3.19×	10.04

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (0:4)	87.2%	91.9%	96.9%	0.95×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	7.6%	4.6%	2.3%	2.03×	21.60
Roma (0:4)	5.2%	4.6%	1.0%	4.77×	21.82

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (1:0)	87.9%	86.1%	66.3%	1.30×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	8.4%	6.9%	19.4%	0.36×	14.48
Cagliari (1:0)	3.7%	3.3%	14.4%	0.23×	30.53

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (2:0)	96.3%	96.8%	85.6%	1.13×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	2.8%	2.3%	8.7%	0.26×	43.65
Cagliari (2:0)	0.9%	2.3%	5.9%	0.39×	43.78

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.0%	48.8%	46.2%	1.06×	2.05
1st half highest scoring	28.4%	26.2%	27.0%	0.97×	3.81
Halves equal	22.6%	24.3%	26.9%	0.90×	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to concede	58.0%	60.7%	69.6%	0.87×	1.65
Roma clean sheet	42.0%	39.3%	30.4%	1.29×	2.54

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma clean sheet in 1st half	75.3%	77.3%	58.8%	1.31×	1.29
Roma to concede in 1st half	24.7%	22.7%	41.2%	0.55×	4.40

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma clean sheet in 2nd half	55.7%	54.8%	50.0%	1.10×	1.83
Roma to concede in 2nd half	44.3%	45.2%	50.0%	0.90×	2.21

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma over 2.5 corners	88.2%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Roma over 3.5 corners	78.1%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Roma over 4.5 corners	66.1%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Roma under 6.5 corners	58.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Roma over 5.5 corners	53.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Roma under 5.5 corners	46.3%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Roma over 6.5 corners	41.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Roma under 4.5 corners	33.9%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Roma under 3.5 corners	21.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Roma under 2.5 corners	11.8%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma over 0.5 goals	90.5%	92.2%	71.6%	1.29×	1.08
Roma under 3.5 goals	78.8%	77.7%	95.3%	0.82×	1.29
Roma over 1.5 goals	68.2%	68.0%	39.7%	1.71×	1.47
Roma under 2.5 goals	58.1%	58.6%	85.0%	0.69×	1.71
Roma over 2.5 goals	41.9%	41.4%	15.0%	2.76×	2.42
Roma under 1.5 goals	31.8%	32.0%	60.3%	0.53×	3.12
Roma over 3.5 goals	21.2%	22.3%	4.7%	4.75×	4.49
Roma under 0.5 goals	9.5%	7.8%	28.4%	0.27×	12.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma under 1.5 in 1st half	70.5%	78.8%	89.3%	0.88×	1.27
Roma over 0.5 in 1st half	66.2%	68.7%	42.1%	1.63×	1.46
Roma under 0.5 in 1st half	33.8%	31.3%	57.9%	0.54×	3.19
Roma over 1.5 in 1st half	29.5%	21.2%	10.7%	1.98×	4.72

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma scores more in 2nd half	40.7%	42.0%	36.2%	1.16×	2.38
Roma scores more in 1st half	31.5%	32.9%	22.2%	1.48×	3.04
Roma scores equally in both	27.8%	27.8%	41.7%	0.67×	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	58.9%	56.5%	44.0%	1.28×	1.77
Cagliari (home no bet)	41.1%	43.5%	56.0%	0.78×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma even goals	50.4%	50.7%	56.3%	0.90×	1.97
Roma odd goals	49.6%	49.3%	43.8%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	27.6%	28.0%	18.4%	1.52×	3.57
HT 0-0	25.5%	27.9%	33.8%	0.83×	3.58
HT 2-0	15.0%	11.0%	5.8%	1.92×	9.05
Any other HT score	9.9%	6.9%	3.4%	2.06×	14.45
HT 1-1	7.8%	6.9%	10.3%	0.67×	14.48
HT 0-1	7.2%	6.9%	18.1%	0.38×	14.49
HT 2-1	4.2%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	42.00
HT 0-2	1.0%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	42.21
HT 1-2	1.1%	2.4%	2.6%	0.90×	42.21
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.4%	0.7%	3.28×	42.24

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma at HT / Roma at FT	50.2%	52.7%	22.0%	2.39×	1.90
Draw at HT / Roma at FT	18.1%	16.7%	15.9%	1.05×	5.98
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	10.0%	12.6%	16.1%	0.78×	7.92
Draw at HT / Cagliari at FT	5.8%	6.0%	12.9%	0.47×	16.66
Roma at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.5%	4.7%	0.75×	28.59
Cagliari at HT / Cagliari at FT	4.9%	3.5%	19.1%	0.18×	28.59
Cagliari at HT / Draw at FT	2.6%	3.5%	5.9%	0.59×	28.67
Cagliari at HT / Roma at FT	2.2%	3.5%	2.4%	1.45×	28.68
Roma at HT / Cagliari at FT	1.4%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.71

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to score last	70.2%	72.5%	48.2%	1.50×	1.38
Cagliari to score last	25.8%	27.4%	44.0%	0.62×	3.65
No goal scored	4.0%	4.3%	7.9%	0.54×	23.30

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.0%	95.6%	92.1%	1.04×	1.05
Roma to lead by 1 at any time	80.6%	87.3%	55.3%	1.58×	1.15
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	61.2%	61.3%	43.6%	1.41×	1.63
Roma to lead by 2 at any time	54.1%	50.9%	23.9%	2.13×	1.96
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	31.7%	29.8%	15.1%	1.97×	3.35
Roma to lead by 3 at any time	30.2%	29.8%	8.8%	3.39×	3.36
Cagliari to lead by 1 at any time	29.7%	25.6%	50.5%	0.51×	3.91
Cagliari to lead by 2 at any time	7.3%	6.7%	20.2%	0.33×	14.91
Cagliari to lead by 3 at any time	1.5%	1.6%	6.5%	0.24×	63.20

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma most corners	75.5%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Cagliari most corners	16.4%	19.2%	—	—	5.21
Corners level	8.1%	8.4%	—	—	11.97

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.2%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.6%	78.7%	72.1%	1.09×	1.27
1-4 goals	73.7%	72.4%	80.8%	0.90×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.4%	72.4%	70.1%	1.03×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.8%	63.3%	61.7%	1.03×	1.58
3-6 goals	58.0%	59.1%	47.2%	1.25×	1.69
1-3 goals	55.7%	59.1%	67.5%	0.87×	1.69
3-5 goals	51.7%	53.2%	45.2%	1.18×	1.88
2-3 goals	42.9%	43.6%	48.4%	0.90×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.2%	43.6%	36.8%	1.18×	2.30
4-6 goals	35.7%	39.2%	23.8%	1.65×	2.55
1-2 goals	33.5%	35.2%	44.1%	0.80×	2.84
4-5 goals	29.5%	30.2%	21.8%	1.39×	3.31
5-6 goals	17.8%	18.8%	10.6%	1.78×	5.31
7+ goals	4.6%	2.6%	1.0%	2.67×	39.02

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma never behind	66.4%	69.1%	49.5%	1.39×	1.45
Cagliari never behind	15.4%	18.1%	44.7%	0.41×	5.52

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.2%	51.6%	56.6%	0.91×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.8%	48.4%	43.4%	1.11×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.2%	51.9%	50.6%	1.03×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.8%	48.1%	49.4%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.0%	95.4%	92.1%	1.04×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	89.2%	87.6%	97.0%	0.90×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	83.2%	82.3%	73.0%	1.13×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	77.6%	77.3%	88.6%	0.87×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	62.5%	61.7%	48.1%	1.28×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	59.7%	58.6%	75.4%	0.78×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	40.3%	41.4%	24.6%	1.68×	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	37.5%	38.3%	51.9%	0.74×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	22.4%	22.7%	11.4%	1.99×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	16.8%	17.7%	27.0%	0.65×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	10.8%	12.4%	3.0%	4.13×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	4.0%	4.6%	7.9%	0.58×	21.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.1%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	87.8%	86.7%	96.7%	0.90×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	78.8%	75.9%	64.0%	1.19×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	72.7%	72.4%	86.8%	0.83×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	51.8%	51.9%	32.2%	1.61×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	48.2%	48.1%	67.8%	0.71×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	27.3%	27.6%	13.2%	2.10×	3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	21.2%	24.1%	36.0%	0.67×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	12.2%	13.3%	3.3%	4.05×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.9%	2.8%	1.0%	2.87×	35.52

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	84.1%	85.9%	91.2%	0.94×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	74.5%	71.9%	66.2%	1.09×	1.39
Under 1.5 in 1st half	60.3%	63.1%	70.1%	0.90×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	39.7%	36.9%	29.9%	1.23×	2.71
Under 0.5 in 1st half	25.5%	28.1%	33.8%	0.83×	3.56
Over 2.5 in 1st half	15.9%	14.1%	8.8%	1.61×	7.08

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	84.4%	83.2%	78.6%	1.06×	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	71.5%	77.3%	82.5%	0.94×	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	55.4%	54.8%	43.0%	1.27×	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	44.6%	45.2%	57.0%	0.79×	2.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	28.5%	22.7%	17.5%	1.29×	4.41
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	15.6%	16.8%	21.4%	0.78×	5.97

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari not to score in both halves	89.1%	85.5%	78.4%	1.09×	1.17
Roma not to score in both halves	52.3%	55.3%	75.8%	0.73×	1.81
Roma to score in both halves	47.7%	44.7%	24.2%	1.85×	2.24
Cagliari to score in both halves	10.9%	14.5%	21.6%	0.67×	6.89

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.5%	53.9%	49.2%	1.10×	1.86
Only Roma scores	38.0%	39.9%	22.6%	1.77×	2.51
Only Cagliari scores	5.5%	7.1%	20.6%	0.35×	14.06
Neither team scores	4.0%	4.6%	7.9%	0.58×	21.68

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	22.6%	23.6%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	20.7%	22.6%	25.0%	0.90×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.9%	17.5%	13.3%	1.31×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	12.8%	12.1%	19.2%	0.63×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	11.6%	12.1%	8.5%	1.42×	8.25
6 or more goals	10.8%	12.1%	3.0%	4.04×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	4.0%	4.5%	7.9%	0.56×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.8%	35.9%	36.4%	0.99×	2.79
No goals in 1st half	25.5%	28.2%	33.8%	0.83×	3.55
2 goals in 1st half	23.8%	21.5%	21.3%	1.01×	4.64
3+ goals in 1st half	15.9%	15.6%	8.8%	1.78×	6.41

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	55.4%	54.0%	43.0%	1.25×	1.85
1 goal in 2nd half	29.0%	29.3%	35.7%	0.82×	3.41
No goals in 2nd half	15.6%	16.4%	21.4%	0.77×	6.10

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari not to win both halves	98.4%	97.2%	91.1%	1.07×	1.03
Roma not to win both halves	69.9%	70.3%	89.9%	0.78×	1.42
Roma to win both halves	30.1%	29.7%	10.1%	2.94×	3.36
Cagliari to win both halves	1.6%	2.8%	8.9%	0.31×	36.09

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to win either half	79.7%	80.1%	53.2%	1.50×	1.25
Cagliari to win neither half	74.9%	73.2%	51.6%	1.42×	1.37
Cagliari to win either half	25.1%	26.8%	48.4%	0.55×	3.73
Roma to win neither half	20.3%	19.9%	46.8%	0.43×	5.02

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari not to win to nil	94.5%	92.1%	79.4%	1.16×	1.09
Roma not to win to nil	62.0%	66.6%	77.4%	0.86×	1.50
Roma to win to nil	38.0%	33.4%	22.6%	1.48×	2.99
Cagliari to win to nil	5.5%	7.9%	20.6%	0.38×	12.70

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma by 3+	26.9%	27.9%	7.7%	3.63×	3.59
Roma by 1	22.8%	24.1%	22.6%	1.07×	4.15
Roma by 2	20.8%	24.1%	10.0%	2.42×	4.15
Draw	17.3%	17.0%	26.4%	0.64×	5.87
Cagliari by 1	8.4%	7.2%	19.4%	0.37×	13.90
Cagliari by 2	2.8%	2.7%	8.7%	0.31×	36.82
Cagliari by 3+	0.9%	2.7%	5.9%	0.46×	36.88