Roma v Como — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 15 December 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 13
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
12 – 8
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.40 – 0.21
Goals − xG
-0.66 – -0.64
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Roma win
45.4%
Draw
34.0%
Como win
20.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Roma are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 27.0 xG
conceded 4
from 6.6 xG
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.22–0.74 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.46–1.18 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 53% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Roma 1.66 xGComo 0.64 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Roma attacking right
Como attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Como |
Maxence Caqueret | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jayden Addai |
| 13' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Assane Diao |
| 21' |
 Roma |
Wesley | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Evan Ferguson |
| 24' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Hermoso |
| 24' |
Roma |
Wesley | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 28' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kouadio Kone |
| 29' |
Roma |
Evan Ndicka | 0.09 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lorenzo Pellegrini |
| 29' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Cristante |
| 30' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 40' |
Roma |
Evan Ferguson | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kouadio Kone |
| 41' |
Roma |
Evan Ferguson | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Wesley |
| 42' |
Como |
Jayden Addai | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Wesley |
| 48' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Roma |
Evan Ferguson | 0.25 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gianluca Mancini |
| 52' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nico Paz |
| 52' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tasos Douvikas |
| 53' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tasos Douvikas |
| 53' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Como |
Maxence Caqueret | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 59' |
Roma |
Wesley | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 63' |
Roma |
Evan Ferguson | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mario Hermoso |
| 74' |
Como |
Stefan Posch | 0.10 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marc-Oliver Kempf |
| 83' |
Como |
Stefan Posch | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jesús Rodriguez |
| 91' |
Como |
Stefan Posch | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ignace Van der Brempt |
| 92' |
Roma |
Leon Bailey | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Stephan El Shaarawy |
Players
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Ferguson FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.73 | 0.07 | 0.48 |
| Wesley DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.38 | 0.81 |
| Evan Ndicka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Mario Hermoso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.55 |
| Bryan Cristante MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.66 |
| Devyne Rensch DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.47 |
| Kouadio Kone MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.69 |
| Matìas Soulè Malvano AMC | 85 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.38 | 1.10 |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.33 |
| Stephan El Shaarawy Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Leon Bailey Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Paz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| Lucas Da Cunha DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Jacobo Ramón DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Álex Valle DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Martin Baturina FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ivan Smolcic DR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Maxence Caqueret DMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jayden Addai AMR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Tasos Douvikas Sub | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| Assane Diao AML | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Stefan Posch Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jesús Rodriguez Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Nicolas Kühn Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ignace Van der Brempt Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |