Roma v Cremonese — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 22 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
23 – 2
On target
5 – 0
Shots in box
19 – 1
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.93 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.36 – -0.28
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Roma win
62.0%
Draw
24.8%
Cremonese win
13.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Roma are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWWWWDDW last 10
scored 23
from 26.6 xG
conceded 5
from 9.9 xG
Cremonese are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 8.8 xG
conceded 17
from 11.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.64–0.61 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.15–0.82 | 2-0 12% | 57% | 49% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Roma 2.64 xGCremonese 0.28 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Roma attacking right
Cremonese attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mehmet Zeki Çelik |
| 15' |
Roma |
Mehmet Zeki Çelik | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gianluca Mancini |
| 24' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Lorenzo Pellegrini |
| 24' |
Roma |
Kouadio Kone | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 33' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Roma |
Gianluca Mancini | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Bryan Zaragoza |
| 34' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lorenzo Pellegrini |
| 52' |
Roma |
Kouadio Kone | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 57' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 57' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Cristante |
| 58' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Goal | Lorenzo Pellegrini |
| 63' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Venturino |
| 63' |
Roma |
Evan Ndicka | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bryan Cristante |
| 63' |
Roma |
Evan Ndicka | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lorenzo Venturino |
| 72' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lorenzo Venturino |
| 76' |
Roma |
Evan Ndicka | 0.44 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Bryan Cristante |
| 79' |
Roma |
Evan Ndicka | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Neil El Aynaoui |
| 80' |
Roma |
Kouadio Kone | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
 Cremonese |
Morten Thorsby | 0.27 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Filippo Terracciano |
| 85' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kouadio Kone |
| 85' |
Roma |
Niccolò Pisilli | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 88' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Venturino | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kouadio Kone |
| 91' |
Roma |
Niccolò Pisilli | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Wesley |
| 93' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Filippo Terracciano |
Players
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Ndicka DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Donyell Malen FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Bryan Cristante MC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.51 | 0.79 |
| Kouadio Kone MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.41 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.38 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wesley DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.52 |
| Mehmet Zeki Çelik DMR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini AMC | 75 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| Bryan Zaragoza AMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| Daniele Ghilardi DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Neil El Aynaoui Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.36 |
| Lorenzo Venturino Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| Niccolò Pisilli Sub | 15 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.81 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Jan Ziólkowski Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
Cremonese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morten Thorsby MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Federico Bonazzoli FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Filippo Terracciano DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Emil Audero GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Youssef Maleh MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Francesco Folino DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessio Zerbin DMR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giuseppe Pezzella DML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Sanabria FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martín Payero MC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Warren Bondo Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Jamie Vardy Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Milan Djuric Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Mikayil Faye Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |