Roma v Fiorentina — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 4 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 4
On target
7 – 1
Shots in box
11 – 3
xG per shot
0.20 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.69 – 0.06
Goals − xG
+1.16 – -0.13
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Roma win
51.9%
Draw
24.0%
Fiorentina win
24.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Roma are finishing below their chances — 2.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWWWDDWD last 10
scored 23
from 25.5 xG
conceded 6
from 12.3 xG
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 2.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWDLLLWDLL last 10
scored 11
from 13.6 xG
conceded 18
from 17.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.58–0.98 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.74–1.08 | 1-1 11% | 54% | 55% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Roma 2.84 xGFiorentina 0.13 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Roma attacking right
Fiorentina attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11' |
 Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Wesley |
| 12' |
Roma |
Gianluca Mancini | 0.48 | From Corner | — | Goal | Niccolò Pisilli |
| 16' |
Roma |
Wesley | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mario Hermoso |
| 26' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Wesley |
| 33' |
Roma |
Mario Hermoso | 0.93 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kouadio Kone |
| 35' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 43' |
 Fiorentina |
Nicolo Fagioli | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Roma |
Mario Hermoso | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 46' |
Fiorentina |
Manor Solomon | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 46' |
Fiorentina |
Riccardo Braschi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Manor Solomon |
| 51' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Wesley |
| 51' |
Roma |
Evan Ndicka | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Niccolò Pisilli |
| 52' |
Roma |
Niccolò Pisilli | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 57' |
Roma |
Niccolò Pisilli | 0.54 | Open Play | — | Goal | Donyell Malen |
| 67' |
Roma |
Stephan El Shaarawy | 0.13 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Roma |
Mehmet Zeki Çelik | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Stephan El Shaarawy |
| 89' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Stephan El Shaarawy |
| 91' |
Fiorentina |
Fabiano Parisi | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Giovanni Fabbian |
Players
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manor Solomon FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Luca Ranieri DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cher Ndour MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dodô DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Robin Gosens DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Nicolo Fagioli MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Marco Brescianini MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marin Pongracic DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Albert Gudmundsson FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jack Harrison FWR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Riccardo Braschi Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Fabiano Parisi Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pietro Comuzzo Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacopo Fazzini Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giovanni Fabbian Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niccolò Pisilli MC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.56 | 0.55 | 0.83 |
| Wesley DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.37 | 0.51 |
| Evan Ndicka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Mehmet Zeki Çelik DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 1.11 |
| Bryan Cristante AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Mario Hermoso DC | 84 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.94 | 0.11 | 1.17 |
| Donyell Malen FW | 84 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.54 | 1.94 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 73 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 1.05 |
| Matìas Soulè Malvano AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1.28 |
| Kouadio Kone MC | 65 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.93 | 1.05 |
| Stephan El Shaarawy Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Paulo Dybala Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Daniele Ghilardi Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jan Ziólkowski Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Robinio Vaz Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |