Roma v Genoa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 29 December 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 10
On target
8 – 2
Shots in box
14 – 8
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.29
Goals − xG
+0.95 – +0.49
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Roma win
56.3%
Draw
29.2%
Genoa win
14.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Roma are finishing below their chances — 2.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWWWDDWD last 10
scored 23
from 25.5 xG
conceded 6
from 12.3 xG
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DLLLLLDLWL last 10
scored 6
from 9.7 xG
conceded 16
from 14.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.53–0.67 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.81–1.03 | 1-1 11% | 54% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Roma 2.05 xGGenoa 0.51 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Roma attacking right
Genoa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Genoa |
Brooke Norton-Cuffy | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' |
 Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 16' |
Roma |
Evan Ferguson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gianluca Mancini |
| 18' |
Roma |
Kouadio Kone | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Evan Ferguson |
| 21' |
Genoa |
Aarón Martín | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' |
Roma |
Evan Ferguson | 0.53 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 30' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 36' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Wesley |
| 37' |
Roma |
Kouadio Kone | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 40' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Morten Frendrup |
| 44' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Wesley |
| 46' |
Genoa |
Leo Østigard | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Vitinha |
| 46' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 50' |
Roma |
Evan Ferguson | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mehmet Zeki Çelik |
| 55' |
Roma |
Mehmet Zeki Çelik | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Evan Ferguson |
| 61' |
Genoa |
Johan Vásquez | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Genoa |
Sebastian Otoa | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 64' |
Roma |
Mario Hermoso | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 64' |
Roma |
Stephan El Shaarawy | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Hermoso |
| 71' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Evan Ferguson |
| 72' |
Roma |
Stephan El Shaarawy | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' |
Roma |
Stephan El Shaarawy | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mehmet Zeki Çelik |
| 82' |
Genoa |
Brooke Norton-Cuffy | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Seydou Fini |
| 85' |
Genoa |
Jeff Ekhator | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 86' |
Genoa |
Jeff Ekhator | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 89' |
Roma |
Mehmet Zeki Çelik | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Niccolò Pisilli |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johan Vásquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Brooke Norton-Cuffy DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Aarón Martín DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| Sebastian Otoa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniele Sommariva GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikael Ellertsson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Morten Frendrup MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Vitinha FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| Leo Østigard DC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Caleb Ekuban FW | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ruslan Malinovskiy MC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Lorenzo Colombo Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Seydou Fini Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Jeff Ekhator Sub | 17 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Patrizio Masini Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kouadio Kone MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Paulo Dybala AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.56 |
| Mehmet Zeki Çelik DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.40 |
| Mario Hermoso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.24 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Jan Ziólkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Evan Ferguson FW | 86 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.64 | 0.24 | 0.93 |
| Wesley DML | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.27 |
| Bryan Cristante MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.29 |
| Matìas Soulè Malvano AMC | 58 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.68 | 0.00 | 0.97 |
| Stephan El Shaarawy Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Daniele Ghilardi Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Niccolò Pisilli Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Devyne Rensch Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Artem Dovbyk Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |