Roma v Genoa — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Roma

2–0

1.41 – 0.51 xG

Genoa

Shots

15 – 9

On target

5 – 1

Shots in box

12 – 7

xG per shot

0.10 – 0.06

Set-piece xG

0.27 – 0.07

Goals − xG

+0.53 – -0.52

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 17 Oct, 10:59 · 8h before kick-off

Roma win

69.7%

model 67.6%

Draw

19.3%

model 19.2%

Genoa win

11.0%

model 13.2%

701911

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (176 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 11.9%
1-0 11.1%
2-1 9.7%
1-1 9.1%
3-0 8.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	56.6%	Under 2.5	43.4%
BTTS yes	49.3%	BTTS no	50.7%
Roma 1+	88.1%	Roma 2+	62.9%
Genoa 1+	56.0%	Genoa 2+	19.8%

Expected goals 2.13 – 0.82. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

95/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

Roma to score 2+ in a row

Consecutive goals · usually 32%

59.3% fair odds 1.69

strong signal · 721 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Roma under 3.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 96%

82.7% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1431 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Roma carry the stronger rating, 1750 Elo against 1452.
Roma have created 2.80 xG a match over their last five while Genoa have allowed 1.48.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.
At home Roma average 2.76 xG a match.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Genoa were missing 1.00 expected goal involvements a match against 0.60.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Roma have an estimated 69.7% win probability, against 19.3% for the draw and 11.0% for Genoa. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.13 for Roma and 0.82 for Genoa.

Why Roma

Roma carry the stronger rating, 1750 Elo against 1452. Roma have created 2.80 xG a match over their last five while Genoa have allowed 1.48. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five. At home Roma average 2.76 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Genoa were missing 1.00 expected goal involvements a match against 0.60.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 19.3%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Genoa can win

Genoa have created 0.96 xG a match over their last five while Roma have allowed 0.95. Away from home Genoa average 0.67 xG a match.

Key players

Roma's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Donyell Malen (0.82), Paulo Dybala (0.60), Artem Dovbyk (0.30). Genoa's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Milutin Osmajic (0.35), Lorenzo Colombo (0.33), Ruslan Malinovskiy (0.21).

Availability

1 of Roma's top three contributors did not start their last match. Roma had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.85 expected goal involvements a match. Roma changed goalkeeper for their last match. 27% of Roma's last eleven are new to the club this window. Reported unavailable for Roma: Donyell Malen (suspended). 2 of Genoa's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Genoa's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Roma: 52% possession, 19.0 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.22 xG a match from set pieces. Genoa: 46% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.14 xG a match from set pieces. Roma's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-17 14:51 · team_stats 2026-10-17 06:03 · availability 2026-10-17 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Roma are the model's most likely outcome at 69.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 11.9%. Confidence 95/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Roma are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWWWWWWDDW last 10 scored 23 from 26.6 xG conceded 5 from 9.9 xG

Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

DLLLLLDLWL last 10 scored 6 from 9.7 xG conceded 16 from 14.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	681913	2.13–0.82	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-xg	622117	2.03–0.95	2-0 10%	57%	53%	Home ✓
dc-xg-oos	632116	2.04–0.94	2-0 11%	57%	53%	Home ✓
deep	622117	2.03–0.95	2-0 10%	57%	53%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to win	62.3%	58.1%	40.0%	1.45×	1.72
Draw	20.8%	24.4%	26.7%	0.91×	4.09
Genoa to win	16.9%	19.4%	33.4%	0.58×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma & not both score	33.5%	29.6%	22.5%	1.32×	3.38
Roma & both teams score	28.8%	25.2%	17.6%	1.43×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	15.7%	18.0%	18.8%	0.95×	5.56
Genoa & both teams score	8.8%	8.3%	13.1%	0.64×	12.00
Genoa & not both score	8.1%	8.3%	20.4%	0.41×	12.00
Draw & not both score	5.1%	8.3%	8.0%	1.04×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma & over 1.5	52.0%	48.8%	29.9%	1.63×	2.05
Roma & over 2.5	41.5%	40.2%	23.3%	1.73×	2.49
Roma & under 3.5	37.8%	34.9%	29.6%	1.18×	2.87
Roma & over 3.5	24.5%	21.6%	10.5%	2.07×	4.63
Roma & under 2.5	20.8%	21.6%	16.8%	1.29×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	15.7%	18.0%	18.8%	0.96×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	14.9%	12.8%	19.9%	0.64×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	14.9%	12.8%	19.9%	0.64×	7.79
Genoa & under 3.5	12.5%	12.8%	26.2%	0.49×	7.79
Genoa & over 1.5	12.1%	12.8%	24.3%	0.53×	7.79
Roma & under 1.5	10.3%	12.8%	10.2%	1.26×	7.79
Genoa & over 2.5	9.8%	7.9%	17.7%	0.45×	12.62
Genoa & under 2.5	7.1%	7.9%	15.8%	0.50×	12.62
Draw & under 1.5	5.1%	7.9%	8.0%	0.99×	12.62
Draw & over 2.5	5.9%	7.9%	6.9%	1.14×	12.62
Draw & over 3.5	5.9%	7.9%	6.9%	1.14×	12.62
Genoa & under 1.5	4.8%	4.8%	9.2%	0.52×	20.85
Genoa & over 3.5	4.4%	4.8%	7.3%	0.66×	20.85

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (1UP)	74.3%	75.9%	55.3%	1.37×	1.32
Genoa (1UP)	34.9%	33.5%	50.4%	0.67×	2.98

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (2UP)	62.3%	68.2%	41.8%	1.63×	1.47
Genoa (2UP)	16.9%	17.2%	36.0%	0.48×	5.83

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to win 2nd half	52.2%	51.3%	35.0%	1.47×	1.95
2nd half drawn	31.2%	34.1%	35.4%	0.96×	2.94
Genoa to win 2nd half	16.7%	18.2%	29.8%	0.61×	5.50

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa under 1.5 in 2nd half	89.9%	87.2%	85.3%	1.02×	1.15
Genoa under 0.5 in 2nd half	58.6%	54.9%	50.2%	1.09×	1.82
Genoa over 0.5 in 2nd half	41.4%	45.1%	49.8%	0.90×	2.22
Genoa over 1.5 in 2nd half	10.1%	12.8%	14.7%	0.87×	7.78

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma over 0.5 in 2nd half	69.5%	71.2%	53.8%	1.32×	1.41
Roma under 1.5 in 2nd half	66.7%	71.0%	81.5%	0.87×	1.41
Roma over 1.5 in 2nd half	33.3%	29.0%	18.5%	1.57×	3.45
Roma under 0.5 in 2nd half	30.5%	28.8%	46.2%	0.62×	3.47

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (+0.5)	83.1%	82.5%	66.6%	1.24×	1.21
Genoa (+2.5)	80.8%	82.5%	92.3%	0.89×	1.21
Roma (-0.5)	62.3%	62.9%	40.0%	1.57×	1.59
Genoa (+1.5)	61.7%	62.9%	82.5%	0.76×	1.59
Roma (-1.5)	38.3%	37.1%	17.5%	2.12×	2.70
Genoa (+0.5)	37.7%	37.1%	60.0%	0.62×	2.70
Roma (-2.5)	19.2%	17.5%	7.7%	2.28×	5.72
Genoa (-0.5)	16.9%	17.5%	33.4%	0.52×	5.73

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa to concede	86.8%	86.3%	71.7%	1.20×	1.16
Genoa clean sheet	13.2%	13.7%	28.3%	0.48×	7.31

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa to concede in 1st half	56.8%	57.6%	42.0%	1.37×	1.74
Genoa clean sheet in 1st half	43.2%	42.4%	58.0%	0.73×	2.36

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa to concede in 2nd half	69.5%	66.5%	53.8%	1.24×	1.50
Genoa clean sheet in 2nd half	30.5%	33.5%	46.2%	0.72×	2.99

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa under 6.5 corners	93.8%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Genoa under 5.5 corners	88.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Genoa under 4.5 corners	78.8%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Genoa under 3.5 corners	64.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Genoa over 2.5 corners	54.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Genoa under 2.5 corners	45.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Genoa over 3.5 corners	35.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Genoa over 4.5 corners	21.2%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Genoa over 5.5 corners	11.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.77
Genoa over 6.5 corners	6.2%	10.0%	—	—	9.95

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa under 3.5 goals	98.4%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Genoa under 2.5 goals	92.8%	92.3%	88.6%	1.04×	1.08
Genoa under 1.5 goals	75.4%	76.2%	65.4%	1.17×	1.31
Genoa over 0.5 goals	61.4%	63.2%	69.6%	0.91×	1.58
Genoa under 0.5 goals	38.6%	36.8%	30.4%	1.21×	2.72
Genoa over 1.5 goals	24.6%	23.8%	34.6%	0.69×	4.21
Genoa over 2.5 goals	7.2%	7.7%	11.4%	0.67×	13.04
Genoa over 3.5 goals	1.6%	2.5%	2.9%	0.86×	40.03

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa under 1.5 in 1st half	93.4%	94.2%	90.2%	1.04×	1.06
Genoa under 0.5 in 1st half	65.9%	69.4%	58.9%	1.18×	1.44
Genoa over 0.5 in 1st half	34.1%	30.6%	41.1%	0.74×	3.27
Genoa over 1.5 in 1st half	6.6%	5.8%	9.8%	0.59×	17.12

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa scores equally in both	47.7%	48.0%	43.5%	1.10×	2.08
Genoa scores more in 2nd half	30.1%	33.5%	32.8%	1.02×	2.99
Genoa scores more in 1st half	22.2%	21.8%	23.8%	0.92×	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (away no bet)	75.0%	68.4%	59.9%	1.14×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	25.0%	31.6%	40.1%	0.79×	3.17

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa even goals	57.5%	56.9%	55.7%	1.02×	1.76
Genoa odd goals	42.5%	43.1%	44.4%	0.97×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	81.6%	82.6%	87.4%	0.95×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	18.4%	17.4%	12.6%	1.38×	5.74

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	68.8%	68.5%	59.9%	1.14×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	31.3%	31.5%	40.1%	0.78×	3.18

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	62.9%	60.2%	53.0%	1.14×	1.66
Roma to score 2+ in a row	52.6%	50.9%	31.7%	1.61×	1.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	27.5%	25.2%	17.4%	1.45×	3.96
Roma to score 3+ in a row	24.5%	19.8%	10.0%	1.98×	5.06
Genoa to score 2+ in a row	16.4%	16.3%	27.3%	0.60×	6.14
Genoa to score 3+ in a row	3.3%	2.6%	7.5%	0.35×	38.39

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma corners (+3.5)	96.3%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Roma corners (+2.5)	93.3%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Roma corners (+1.5)	88.7%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Roma corners (-1.5)	63.0%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Genoa corners (+3.5)	58.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Roma corners (-2.5)	52.0%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Genoa corners (+2.5)	48.0%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Roma corners (-3.5)	41.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Genoa corners (+1.5)	37.0%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Genoa corners (-1.5)	11.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Genoa corners (-2.5)	6.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Genoa corners (-3.5)	3.7%	4.2%	—	—	23.55

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	49.5%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
9-11 corners	27.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	23.5%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	82.8%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	76.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	68.8%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	61.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	59.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	50.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	49.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	40.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	38.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	31.2%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	23.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	17.2%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	10.3%	11.5%	10.2%	1.12×	8.73
2-0	10.5%	11.5%	6.7%	1.71×	8.73
1-1	9.8%	7.4%	12.0%	0.62×	13.50
2-1	9.9%	7.4%	9.5%	0.78×	13.50
3-0	7.1%	7.4%	3.6%	2.03×	13.50
3-1	6.7%	7.4%	3.2%	2.34×	13.50
0-0	5.1%	7.4%	8.0%	0.92×	13.51
Any other score	5.8%	7.4%	2.8%	2.65×	13.50
0-1	4.8%	1.7%	9.2%	0.19×	58.29
2-2	4.7%	1.7%	6.1%	0.28×	58.29
0-2	2.3%	1.7%	6.7%	0.26×	58.31
0-3	0.7%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.32
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.0%	1.76×	58.32
1-2	4.7%	1.7%	7.5%	0.23×	58.29
1-3	1.5%	1.7%	1.8%	0.94×	58.31
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.35×	58.32
2-3	1.5%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.31
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	7.06×	58.32
3-2	3.2%	1.7%	3.0%	0.56×	58.30
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.31
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.06×	58.32
4-0	3.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.09×	58.30
4-1	3.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.57×	58.30
4-2	1.6%	1.7%	0.2%	7.06×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.2%	7.06×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.06×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (2nd half DNB)	75.8%	79.5%	54.0%	1.47×	1.26
Genoa (2nd half DNB)	24.2%	20.5%	46.0%	0.45×	4.87

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma leading at HT (DNB)	71.5%	72.9%	51.3%	1.42×	1.37
Genoa leading at HT (DNB)	28.5%	27.1%	48.7%	0.56×	3.69

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma or draw (1X)	83.1%	80.6%	66.6%	1.21×	1.24
Roma or Genoa (12)	79.2%	75.6%	73.3%	1.03×	1.32
Genoa or draw (X2)	37.7%	41.9%	60.0%	0.70×	2.39

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma or draw at HT	82.7%	84.0%	73.0%	1.15×	1.19
Roma or Genoa at HT	60.7%	61.4%	55.3%	1.11×	1.63
Genoa or draw at HT	56.6%	57.2%	71.6%	0.80×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma or draw (1UP)	83.1%	88.7%	71.8%	1.24×	1.13
Genoa or draw (1UP)	37.7%	41.3%	65.6%	0.63×	2.42

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma or draw in 2nd half	83.3%	81.8%	70.2%	1.16×	1.22
Roma or Genoa in 2nd half	68.8%	65.9%	64.6%	1.02×	1.52
Genoa or draw in 2nd half	47.8%	48.7%	65.0%	0.75×	2.05

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.2%	58.5%	63.8%	0.92×	1.71
Neither half drawn	41.8%	41.5%	36.2%	1.15×	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (DNB)	78.6%	74.7%	54.5%	1.37×	1.34
Genoa (DNB)	21.4%	25.3%	45.5%	0.56×	3.95

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to score first	64.6%	64.9%	48.5%	1.34×	1.54
Genoa to score first	30.3%	27.1%	43.6%	0.62×	3.69
No goal scored	5.1%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.44

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.3%	51.3%	49.3%	1.04×	1.95
Not both teams to score	46.7%	48.7%	50.7%	0.96×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	43.5%	41.6%	37.4%	1.11×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	33.0%	34.5%	40.3%	0.85×	2.90
Not both score & over 2.5	13.7%	12.4%	10.5%	1.18×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	9.8%	8.3%	12.0%	0.69×	12.04

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.2%	85.6%	86.5%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.8%	14.4%	13.5%	1.07×	6.93

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.3%	74.0%	74.7%	0.99×	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.8%	26.0%	25.3%	1.03×	3.85

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	57.4%	59.9%	62.7%	0.96×	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	23.2%	20.9%	20.4%	1.02×	4.79
Both score 1st half only	13.8%	10.8%	12.2%	0.89×	9.28
Both score in both halves	5.6%	6.8%	5.0%	1.36×	14.78

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.6%	83.1%	83.0%	1.00×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	19.4%	16.9%	17.0%	0.99×	5.93

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	58.8%	57.0%	52.5%	1.09×	1.75
A half without a goal	41.2%	43.0%	47.5%	0.90×	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.0%	42.1%	48.5%	0.87×	2.37
4-6 goals	31.6%	30.8%	23.6%	1.31×	3.25
0-1 goals	20.2%	22.9%	27.2%	0.84×	4.37
7+ goals	3.2%	1.8%	1.0%	1.89×	54.35

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa to score exactly 0	38.6%	35.9%	30.4%	1.18×	2.78
Genoa to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.9%	35.1%	1.02×	2.78
Genoa to score exactly 2	17.5%	19.6%	23.3%	0.84×	5.11
Genoa to score 3+	7.2%	8.6%	11.4%	0.75×	11.69

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to score 3+	33.0%	32.5%	14.9%	2.18×	3.08
Roma to score exactly 2	27.1%	26.6%	24.9%	1.07×	3.76
Roma to score exactly 1	26.7%	26.6%	32.1%	0.83×	3.76
Roma to score exactly 0	13.2%	14.3%	28.3%	0.51×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma leading at HT	43.4%	42.8%	28.4%	1.50×	2.34
Draw at HT	39.3%	38.6%	44.7%	0.86×	2.59
Genoa leading at HT	17.3%	16.0%	27.0%	0.59×	6.24

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma -1: 1	38.3%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Roma -1: 2	37.7%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Roma -1: X	24.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (0:1)	38.3%	37.3%	17.5%	2.13×	2.68
Genoa (0:1)	37.7%	37.3%	60.0%	0.62×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	24.0%	24.2%	22.6%	1.07×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa (0:2)	61.7%	67.1%	82.5%	0.81×	1.49
Roma (0:2)	19.2%	15.3%	7.7%	2.00×	6.54
Draw (0:2)	19.0%	15.3%	10.0%	1.53×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa (0:3)	80.8%	85.3%	92.3%	0.92×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	11.2%	9.9%	4.7%	2.10×	10.06
Roma (0:3)	8.0%	5.8%	3.0%	1.92×	17.16

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa (0:4)	92.0%	94.5%	97.0%	0.97×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.2%	4.6%	2.2%	2.10×	21.78
Roma (0:4)	2.8%	1.2%	1.0%	1.26×	81.92

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (1:0)	83.1%	81.4%	66.6%	1.22×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	11.3%	12.7%	19.6%	0.65×	7.86
Genoa (1:0)	5.7%	6.9%	14.0%	0.49×	14.51

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (2:0)	94.3%	94.0%	86.0%	1.09×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.2%	2.3%	8.5%	0.27×	43.51
Genoa (2:0)	1.5%	2.3%	5.6%	0.41×	43.68

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.3%	48.7%	46.1%	1.06×	2.05
1st half highest scoring	28.0%	26.3%	27.0%	0.98×	3.80
Halves equal	23.7%	24.2%	27.1%	0.89×	4.13

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to concede	61.4%	63.7%	69.6%	0.91×	1.57
Roma clean sheet	38.6%	36.3%	30.4%	1.20×	2.75

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma clean sheet in 1st half	65.9%	69.6%	58.9%	1.18×	1.44
Roma to concede in 1st half	34.1%	30.4%	41.1%	0.74×	3.29

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma clean sheet in 2nd half	58.6%	55.2%	50.2%	1.10×	1.81
Roma to concede in 2nd half	41.4%	44.8%	49.8%	0.90×	2.23

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma over 2.5 corners	86.6%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Roma over 3.5 corners	75.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Roma over 4.5 corners	62.8%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Roma under 6.5 corners	62.0%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Roma under 5.5 corners	50.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Roma over 5.5 corners	49.9%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Roma over 6.5 corners	38.0%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Roma under 4.5 corners	37.2%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Roma under 3.5 corners	24.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Roma under 2.5 corners	13.4%	13.7%	—	—	7.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma over 0.5 goals	86.8%	87.3%	71.7%	1.22×	1.15
Roma under 3.5 goals	85.2%	87.2%	95.4%	0.91×	1.15
Roma under 2.5 goals	67.0%	67.9%	85.1%	0.80×	1.47
Roma over 1.5 goals	60.1%	63.5%	39.7%	1.60×	1.57
Roma under 1.5 goals	39.9%	36.5%	60.3%	0.60×	2.74
Roma over 2.5 goals	33.0%	32.1%	14.9%	2.15×	3.12
Roma over 3.5 goals	14.8%	12.8%	4.6%	2.76×	7.84
Roma under 0.5 goals	13.2%	12.7%	28.3%	0.45×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma under 1.5 in 1st half	79.4%	77.5%	89.3%	0.87×	1.29
Roma over 0.5 in 1st half	56.8%	57.4%	42.0%	1.37×	1.74
Roma under 0.5 in 1st half	43.2%	42.6%	58.0%	0.73×	2.35
Roma over 1.5 in 1st half	20.6%	22.5%	10.7%	2.10×	4.45

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma scores more in 2nd half	44.0%	41.9%	36.2%	1.16×	2.39
Roma scores equally in both	30.0%	27.9%	41.8%	0.67×	3.58
Roma scores more in 1st half	26.0%	27.9%	22.1%	1.26×	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	55.1%	56.3%	44.4%	1.27×	1.78
Genoa (home no bet)	44.9%	43.7%	55.6%	0.79×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma even goals	50.9%	50.7%	56.3%	0.90×	1.97
Roma odd goals	49.1%	49.3%	43.7%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.4%	28.3%	33.9%	0.83×	3.54
HT 1-0	23.9%	24.4%	18.5%	1.32×	4.10
HT 0-1	11.9%	10.9%	18.2%	0.60×	9.21
HT 2-0	10.0%	10.8%	5.7%	1.90×	9.23
HT 1-1	10.0%	7.0%	10.3%	0.68×	14.34
Any other HT score	6.2%	6.9%	3.4%	2.04×	14.40
HT 2-1	4.2%	2.4%	2.4%	0.98×	41.95
HT 0-2	2.5%	2.4%	5.2%	0.46×	42.06
HT 1-2	2.1%	2.4%	2.6%	0.93×	42.09
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.4%	0.7%	3.25×	42.17

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma at HT / Roma at FT	38.2%	41.7%	22.0%	1.90×	2.40
Draw at HT / Roma at FT	20.5%	21.5%	15.8%	1.36×	4.65
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.3%	12.7%	16.3%	0.78×	7.88
Genoa at HT / Genoa at FT	9.3%	6.0%	18.8%	0.32×	16.54
Draw at HT / Genoa at FT	6.6%	6.0%	12.9%	0.47×	16.62
Genoa at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.5%	6.0%	0.58×	28.77
Roma at HT / Draw at FT	4.0%	3.5%	4.7%	0.73×	28.79
Genoa at HT / Roma at FT	3.5%	3.5%	2.4%	1.43×	28.81
Roma at HT / Genoa at FT	1.1%	3.5%	1.9%	1.78×	28.90

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to score last	64.6%	62.5%	48.4%	1.29×	1.60
Genoa to score last	30.3%	32.6%	43.7%	0.74×	3.07
No goal scored	5.1%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.44

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.9%	92.7%	92.0%	1.01×	1.08
Roma to lead by 1 at any time	74.3%	74.5%	55.3%	1.35×	1.34
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	54.6%	50.8%	43.1%	1.18×	1.97
Roma to lead by 2 at any time	44.9%	39.2%	23.8%	1.64×	2.55
Genoa to lead by 1 at any time	34.9%	30.0%	50.4%	0.59×	3.34
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	24.5%	19.8%	14.7%	1.34×	5.06
Roma to lead by 3 at any time	22.2%	19.7%	8.6%	2.28×	5.07
Genoa to lead by 2 at any time	9.9%	6.8%	19.8%	0.34×	14.77
Genoa to lead by 3 at any time	2.3%	1.6%	6.2%	0.26×	61.86

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma most corners	73.2%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Genoa most corners	18.0%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
Corners level	8.7%	8.4%	—	—	11.96

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.8%	87.4%	89.1%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	76.8%	78.7%	80.7%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	76.5%	78.7%	71.9%	1.09×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.6%	72.4%	69.9%	1.04×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.7%	63.3%	61.5%	1.03×	1.58
1-3 goals	60.1%	63.3%	67.7%	0.94×	1.58
3-6 goals	54.0%	53.2%	46.9%	1.13×	1.88
3-5 goals	49.0%	48.5%	44.8%	1.08×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.0%	43.6%	48.5%	0.90×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.1%	39.2%	36.5%	1.08×	2.55
1-2 goals	37.7%	39.2%	44.4%	0.88×	2.55
4-6 goals	31.6%	35.2%	23.6%	1.49×	2.84
4-5 goals	26.6%	30.2%	21.5%	1.41×	3.31
5-6 goals	14.9%	14.8%	10.6%	1.40×	6.74
7+ goals	3.2%	2.6%	1.0%	2.63×	39.14

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma never behind	60.0%	67.7%	49.6%	1.37×	1.48
Genoa never behind	20.6%	24.3%	44.7%	0.54×	4.12

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	51.5%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	48.5%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.0%	51.8%	56.5%	0.92×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	46.0%	48.2%	43.5%	1.11×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.6%	51.9%	50.8%	1.02×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.4%	48.1%	49.2%	0.98×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.9%	92.3%	92.0%	1.00×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	91.8%	92.3%	97.0%	0.95×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	81.9%	82.3%	88.6%	0.93×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	79.8%	77.3%	72.8%	1.06×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	65.2%	66.3%	75.6%	0.88×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	57.2%	58.6%	47.8%	1.23×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	42.8%	41.4%	52.2%	0.79×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	34.8%	33.7%	24.4%	1.38×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	20.2%	22.7%	27.2%	0.83×	4.42
Over 4.5 goals	18.1%	17.7%	11.4%	1.55×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	8.2%	7.7%	3.0%	2.55×	12.92
Under 0.5 goals	5.1%	7.7%	8.0%	0.96×	12.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.6%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.9%	92.4%	96.7%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	78.3%	76.0%	86.9%	0.87×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	73.9%	72.4%	63.7%	1.14×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	55.2%	55.8%	68.1%	0.82×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	44.8%	44.2%	31.9%	1.39×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	26.1%	27.6%	36.3%	0.76×	3.63
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	21.7%	24.0%	13.1%	1.83×	4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.1%	7.6%	3.3%	2.30×	13.13
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.4%	2.8%	1.0%	2.82×	35.66

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.7%	89.0%	91.3%	0.97×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.6%	71.8%	66.1%	1.09×	1.39
Under 1.5 in 1st half	64.2%	63.3%	70.4%	0.90×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	35.8%	36.7%	29.6%	1.24×	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.4%	28.2%	33.9%	0.83×	3.54
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.3%	11.0%	8.7%	1.26×	9.06

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.1%	83.3%	78.4%	1.06×	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.2%	79.4%	82.5%	0.96×	1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	51.3%	52.6%	42.9%	1.23×	1.90
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	48.7%	47.4%	57.1%	0.83×	2.11
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.8%	20.6%	17.5%	1.18×	4.86
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.9%	16.7%	21.6%	0.77×	5.98

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa not to score in both halves	85.9%	85.5%	78.7%	1.09×	1.17
Roma not to score in both halves	60.5%	63.5%	75.8%	0.84×	1.58
Roma to score in both halves	39.5%	36.5%	24.2%	1.51×	2.74
Genoa to score in both halves	14.1%	14.5%	21.3%	0.68×	6.89

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	53.3%	53.8%	49.3%	1.09×	1.86
Only Roma scores	33.5%	33.3%	22.5%	1.48×	3.00
Only Genoa scores	8.1%	7.1%	20.4%	0.35×	14.03
Neither team scores	5.1%	7.1%	8.0%	0.89×	14.06

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.6%	22.6%	25.2%	0.90×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.5%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	16.7%	17.5%	13.1%	1.33×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	15.2%	17.5%	19.3%	0.90×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	9.9%	7.6%	8.5%	0.90×	13.11
6 or more goals	8.2%	7.6%	3.0%	2.51×	13.12
Exactly 0 goals	5.1%	7.6%	8.0%	0.95×	13.13

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.8%	37.3%	36.6%	1.02×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	28.4%	28.5%	33.9%	0.84×	3.51
2 goals in 1st half	22.5%	21.5%	21.0%	1.02×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	13.3%	10.9%	8.7%	1.25×	9.14

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	51.3%	50.9%	42.9%	1.19×	1.96
1 goal in 2nd half	30.8%	33.7%	35.6%	0.95×	2.97
No goals in 2nd half	17.9%	16.6%	21.6%	0.77×	6.02

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa not to win both halves	97.1%	97.2%	91.5%	1.06×	1.03
Roma not to win both halves	77.4%	75.3%	89.9%	0.84×	1.33
Roma to win both halves	22.6%	24.7%	10.1%	2.45×	4.05
Genoa to win both halves	2.9%	2.8%	8.5%	0.33×	35.30

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to win either half	72.9%	73.1%	53.3%	1.37×	1.37
Genoa to win neither half	68.9%	67.9%	51.8%	1.31×	1.47
Genoa to win either half	31.1%	32.1%	48.2%	0.67×	3.12
Roma to win neither half	27.1%	26.9%	46.7%	0.58×	3.72

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa not to win to nil	91.9%	92.1%	79.6%	1.16×	1.09
Roma not to win to nil	66.5%	69.7%	77.5%	0.90×	1.44
Roma to win to nil	33.5%	30.3%	22.5%	1.35×	3.30
Genoa to win to nil	8.1%	7.9%	20.4%	0.39×	12.67

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma by 1	24.0%	24.1%	22.6%	1.07×	4.14
Draw	20.8%	24.1%	26.7%	0.90×	4.15
Roma by 3+	19.2%	17.0%	7.7%	2.23×	5.87
Roma by 2	19.0%	17.0%	10.0%	1.71×	5.87
Genoa by 1	11.3%	11.7%	19.6%	0.60×	8.52
Genoa by 2	4.2%	2.7%	8.5%	0.32×	36.71
Genoa by 3+	1.5%	2.7%	5.6%	0.49×	36.79

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Roma 1.47 xGGenoa 0.52 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Roma attacking right Genoa attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
8'	Genoa	Johan Vásquez	0.04	From Corner	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Alessandro Marcandalli
8'	Genoa	Stephan El Shaarawy	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Milutin Osmajic
9'	Genoa	Milutin Osmajic	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
17'	Roma	Matìas Soulè Malvano	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Devyne Rensch
18'	Roma	Rodrigo Mora	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Santiago Castro
19'	Roma	Konstantinos Koulierakis	0.05	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	—
27'	Roma	Niccolò Pisilli	0.04	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Emanuele Lulli
29'	Roma	Leonardo Balerdi	0.06	From Corner	—	Shot On Post	Niccolò Pisilli
30'	Roma	Rodrigo Mora	0.13	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Matìas Soulè Malvano
32'	Genoa	Milutin Osmajic	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
32'	Genoa	Milutin Osmajic	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
32'	Genoa	Stephan El Shaarawy	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Shot On Post	—
42'	Roma	Rodrigo Mora	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Emanuele Lulli
46'	Roma	Santiago Castro	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
49'	Roma	Santiago Castro	0.08	From Corner	Right Foot	Goal	—
57'	Genoa	Junior Messias	0.11	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Alessandro Marcandalli
67'	Roma	Emanuele Lulli	0.56	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	—
67'	Roma	Matìas Soulè Malvano	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Lorenzo Pellegrini
72'	Genoa	David Puczka	0.03	Direct Freekick	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
79'	Genoa	Milutin Osmajic	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Samuel Wiafe
81'	Roma	Mario Hermoso	0.04	Set Piece	—	Blocked Shot	Lorenzo Pellegrini
86'	Roma	Santiago Castro	0.14	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Matìas Soulè Malvano
89'	Roma	Santiago Castro	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Daniele Ghilardi
93'	Roma	Evan Ndicka	0.04	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Matìas Soulè Malvano

Players

Genoa

Player	Min	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Milutin Osmajic FW	90	4	1	0.25	0.06	0.31
Johan Vásquez DC	90	1	0	0.04	0.00	0.00
David Puczka DML	90	1	0	0.03	0.00	0.00
Alessandro Marcandalli DC	90	0	2	0.00	0.15	0.11
Mikael Ellertsson DMR	90	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Leo Østigard DC	90	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Justin Bijlow GK	90	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Samuel Wiafe MC	90	0	1	0.00	0.04	0.04
Junior Messias AMC	84	1	0	0.11	0.00	0.11
Morten Frendrup MC	84	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Stephan El Shaarawy AMC	66	2	0	0.08	0.00	0.08
Vitinha Sub	24	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Robinho Júnior Sub	6	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Alex Amorim Sub	6	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Roma

Player	Min	G	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Santiago Castro FW	90	1	4	1	0.31	0.03	0.48
Matìas Soulè Malvano AMC	90	0	2	3	0.15	0.30	0.45
Leonardo Balerdi DC	90	0	1	0	0.06	0.00	0.16
Evan Ndicka DC	90	0	1	0	0.04	0.00	0.00
Marten de Roon MC	90	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.46
Pierluigi Gollini GK	90	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.09
Niccolò Pisilli MC	89	0	1	1	0.04	0.06	0.06
Devyne Rensch DML	89	0	0	1	0.00	0.06	0.35
Emanuele Lulli DMR	79	1	1	2	0.56	0.09	0.84
Rodrigo Mora AMC	64	0	3	0	0.21	0.00	0.38
Konstantinos Koulierakis DC	64	0	1	0	0.05	0.00	0.00
Mario Hermoso Sub	26	0	1	0	0.04	0.00	0.23
Lorenzo Pellegrini Sub	26	0	0	2	0.00	0.13	0.23
Wesley Sub	11	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Alessandro Di Nunzio Sub	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Daniele Ghilardi Sub	1	0	0	1	0.00	0.02	0.02

Roma v Genoa — Prediction, Odds & Stats

AI prediction

Top 5 scorelines

Goals

Footing

Positive factors

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The price

Why Roma

Why the draw is live

Why Genoa can win

Key players

Availability

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

What the chances say

What the model said

All markets

Expected goals by minute

Shot map

Every shot

Players

Genoa

Roma

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