Roma v Genoa — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Roma

13:00 UTC

Genoa

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 941h before kick-off

Roma win

69.5%

model 66.7%

Draw

19.8%

model 19.3%

Genoa win

10.7%

model 14.0%

692011

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (159 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 11.4%
1-0 10.6%
2-1 9.8%
1-1 9.2%
3-0 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	57.8%	Under 2.5	42.2%
BTTS yes	51.1%	BTTS no	48.9%
Roma 1+	88.2%	Roma 2+	63.1%
Genoa 1+	57.9%	Genoa 2+	21.4%

Expected goals 2.14 – 0.86. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

91/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Roma to score 2+ in a row

Consecutive goals · usually 31%

59.1% fair odds 1.69

strong signal · 720 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Roma leading at HT (DNB)

DNB half time · usually 50%

84.0% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 66 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Roma carry the stronger rating, 1739 Elo against 1441.
Roma have created 2.70 xG a match over their last five while Genoa have allowed 1.50.
Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.
At home Roma average 2.64 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Roma have an estimated 69.5% win probability, against 19.8% for the draw and 10.7% for Genoa. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.14 for Roma and 0.86 for Genoa.

Why Roma

Roma carry the stronger rating, 1739 Elo against 1441. Roma have created 2.70 xG a match over their last five while Genoa have allowed 1.50. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five. At home Roma average 2.64 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 19.8%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Genoa can win

Genoa have created 0.98 xG a match over their last five while Roma have allowed 0.66. Away from home Genoa average 0.94 xG a match.

Key players

Roma's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Donyell Malen (0.84), Paulo Dybala (0.64), Artem Dovbyk (0.31). Genoa's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Milutin Osmajic (0.30), Lorenzo Colombo (0.30), Vitinha (0.22).

Availability

1 of Roma's top three contributors did not start their last match. 1 of Genoa's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Roma: 64% possession, 21.2 shots a match, 7.3 faced, 0.50 xG a match from set pieces. Genoa: 53% possession, 9.8 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.26 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Roma are the model's most likely outcome at 69.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 11.4%. Confidence 91/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Roma are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WDWWWWWWWW last 10 scored 27 from 27.0 xG conceded 4 from 6.6 xG

Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

WWLDDLLLLL last 10 scored 6 from 9.8 xG conceded 14 from 15.0 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	671914	2.14–0.86	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	632116	2.04–0.93	2-0 11%	57%	53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to win	66.7%	67.7%	39.4%	1.72×	1.48
Draw	19.3%	19.3%	26.8%	0.72×	5.19
Genoa to win	14.0%	10.5%	34.0%	0.31×	9.56

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma & not both score	37.2%	37.3%	22.6%	1.65×	2.68
Roma & both teams score	29.5%	26.4%	16.9%	1.56×	3.79
Draw & both teams score	14.4%	12.2%	18.7%	0.65×	8.21
Genoa & both teams score	7.2%	7.3%	13.3%	0.55×	13.68
Genoa & not both score	6.8%	7.3%	20.8%	0.35×	13.69
Draw & not both score	5.0%	3.7%	8.2%	0.45×	26.86

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma & over 1.5	56.1%	56.0%	29.0%	1.93×	1.79
Roma & over 2.5	44.7%	44.0%	22.5%	1.96×	2.27
Roma & under 3.5	39.9%	37.6%	29.4%	1.28×	2.66
Roma & over 3.5	26.8%	25.5%	10.1%	2.52×	3.92
Roma & under 2.5	22.0%	21.5%	17.0%	1.26×	4.65
Draw & over 1.5	14.4%	12.7%	18.7%	0.68×	7.86
Draw & under 3.5	14.1%	12.7%	19.9%	0.64×	7.86
Draw & under 2.5	14.1%	12.7%	19.9%	0.64×	7.86
Genoa & under 3.5	10.6%	12.7%	26.6%	0.48×	7.87
Roma & under 1.5	10.6%	12.7%	10.5%	1.21×	7.87
Genoa & over 1.5	9.7%	7.5%	24.6%	0.30×	13.40
Genoa & over 2.5	7.8%	7.5%	18.1%	0.41×	13.41
Genoa & under 2.5	6.1%	7.5%	16.0%	0.46×	13.42
Draw & over 3.5	5.2%	7.5%	6.9%	1.07×	13.42
Draw & over 2.5	5.2%	7.5%	6.9%	1.07×	13.42
Draw & under 1.5	5.0%	4.6%	8.2%	0.56×	21.89
Genoa & under 1.5	4.3%	4.6%	9.5%	0.48×	21.92
Genoa & over 3.5	3.4%	4.6%	7.4%	0.61×	21.96

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (1UP)	77.4%	79.9%	54.7%	1.46×	1.25
Genoa (1UP)	31.2%	32.4%	51.1%	0.63×	3.08

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (2UP)	66.7%	68.4%	41.0%	1.67×	1.46
Genoa (2UP)	14.0%	14.2%	36.5%	0.39×	7.04

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to win 2nd half	51.2%	48.6%	34.7%	1.40×	2.06
2nd half drawn	30.8%	33.7%	35.9%	0.94×	2.97
Genoa to win 2nd half	17.9%	20.2%	29.5%	0.68×	4.96

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (+0.5)	86.0%	88.9%	66.0%	1.35×	1.12
Genoa (+2.5)	77.5%	78.6%	92.4%	0.85×	1.27
Roma (-0.5)	66.7%	68.9%	39.4%	1.75×	1.45
Genoa (+1.5)	57.3%	57.1%	83.0%	0.69×	1.75
Roma (-1.5)	42.7%	42.9%	17.0%	2.52×	2.33
Genoa (+0.5)	33.3%	31.1%	60.6%	0.51×	3.22
Roma (-2.5)	22.5%	21.4%	7.6%	2.83×	4.67
Genoa (-0.5)	14.0%	11.1%	34.0%	0.33×	9.04

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa to concede	88.2%	89.9%	71.1%	1.26×	1.11
Genoa clean sheet	11.8%	10.1%	28.9%	0.35×	9.92

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa to concede in 1st half	61.0%	60.5%	41.2%	1.47×	1.65
Genoa clean sheet in 1st half	39.0%	39.5%	58.8%	0.67×	2.53

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa under 3.5 goals	98.8%	97.4%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Genoa under 2.5 goals	94.3%	92.7%	88.4%	1.05×	1.08
Genoa under 1.5 goals	78.6%	75.3%	65.4%	1.15×	1.33
Genoa over 0.5 goals	57.8%	57.7%	69.3%	0.83×	1.73
Genoa under 0.5 goals	42.2%	42.3%	30.7%	1.38×	2.36
Genoa over 1.5 goals	21.4%	24.7%	34.6%	0.71×	4.05
Genoa over 2.5 goals	5.7%	7.3%	11.6%	0.63×	13.67
Genoa over 3.5 goals	1.2%	2.6%	2.9%	0.91×	37.82

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa under 1.5 in 1st half	96.7%	96.2%	90.2%	1.07×	1.04
Genoa under 0.5 in 1st half	75.3%	78.8%	59.0%	1.34×	1.27
Genoa over 0.5 in 1st half	24.7%	21.2%	41.0%	0.52×	4.71
Genoa over 1.5 in 1st half	3.3%	3.8%	9.8%	0.39×	26.28

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (away no bet)	77.5%	78.9%	59.5%	1.32×	1.27
Draw (away no bet)	22.5%	21.1%	40.5%	0.52×	4.73

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa even goals	58.9%	58.0%	55.7%	1.04×	1.72
Genoa odd goals	41.1%	42.0%	44.3%	0.95×	2.38

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	81.6%	81.7%	87.2%	0.94×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	18.4%	18.3%	12.8%	1.44×	5.45

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	69.3%	65.3%	59.6%	1.10×	1.53
Both halves under 1.5 goals	30.7%	34.7%	40.4%	0.86×	2.88

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	64.4%	61.5%	52.8%	1.17×	1.63
Roma to score 2+ in a row	56.2%	59.1%	31.1%	1.90×	1.69
Either team to score 3+ in a row	30.0%	25.3%	17.3%	1.46×	3.96
Roma to score 3+ in a row	27.7%	25.2%	9.7%	2.59×	3.97
Genoa to score 2+ in a row	13.8%	12.2%	27.7%	0.44×	8.18
Genoa to score 3+ in a row	2.5%	3.4%	7.7%	0.44×	29.76

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-0	11.4%	11.6%	6.7%	1.73×	8.64
1-0	10.6%	11.6%	10.5%	1.10×	8.64
2-1	9.8%	7.3%	9.2%	0.79×	13.74
1-1	9.2%	7.3%	11.9%	0.61×	13.74
3-0	8.1%	7.3%	3.4%	2.13×	13.74
3-1	7.0%	7.3%	3.0%	2.40×	13.75
Any other score	6.8%	7.3%	2.8%	2.62×	13.75
0-0	5.0%	1.8%	8.2%	0.22×	55.38
0-1	4.3%	1.8%	9.5%	0.19×	55.40
1-2	4.0%	1.8%	7.6%	0.24×	55.41
2-2	4.2%	1.8%	6.1%	0.30×	55.40
4-0	4.3%	1.8%	1.6%	1.10×	55.40
4-1	3.7%	1.8%	1.1%	1.59×	55.42
3-2	3.0%	1.8%	2.9%	0.62×	55.43
0-2	1.8%	1.8%	6.7%	0.27×	55.46
2-3	1.2%	1.8%	3.0%	0.59×	55.48
4-2	1.6%	1.8%	0.1%	14.28×	55.47
0-3	0.5%	1.8%	3.3%	0.55×	55.50
0-4	0.1%	1.8%	1.0%	1.78×	55.51
1-3	1.1%	1.8%	1.9%	0.95×	55.48
1-4	0.2%	1.8%	0.8%	2.38×	55.50
2-4	0.3%	1.8%	0.1%	14.27×	55.50
3-3	0.9%	1.8%	0.9%	2.04×	55.49
3-4	0.2%	1.8%	0.3%	7.13×	55.50
4-3	0.5%	1.8%	0.3%	7.14×	55.50
4-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.3%	7.13×	55.51

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma leading at HT (DNB)	82.5%	84.0%	50.1%	1.68×	1.19
Genoa leading at HT (DNB)	17.5%	16.0%	49.9%	0.32×	6.24

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma or draw (1X)	86.0%	89.5%	66.0%	1.36×	1.12
Roma or Genoa (12)	80.7%	80.7%	73.2%	1.10×	1.24
Genoa or draw (X2)	33.3%	32.3%	60.6%	0.53×	3.09

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma or draw at HT	89.1%	88.5%	72.6%	1.22×	1.13
Roma or Genoa at HT	62.3%	63.2%	54.8%	1.15×	1.58
Genoa or draw at HT	48.6%	47.5%	72.5%	0.65×	2.11

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma or draw (1UP)	86.0%	92.5%	71.3%	1.30×	1.08
Genoa or draw (1UP)	33.3%	37.5%	66.3%	0.57×	2.67

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma or draw in 2nd half	82.1%	79.8%	70.5%	1.13×	1.25
Roma or Genoa in 2nd half	69.2%	66.3%	64.1%	1.03×	1.51
Genoa or draw in 2nd half	48.8%	51.4%	65.3%	0.79×	1.95

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	56.9%	57.9%	64.4%	0.90×	1.73
Neither half drawn	43.1%	42.1%	35.6%	1.18×	2.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (DNB)	82.7%	81.5%	53.7%	1.52×	1.23
Genoa (DNB)	17.3%	18.5%	46.3%	0.40×	5.40

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to score first	67.7%	71.3%	47.7%	1.49×	1.40
Genoa to score first	27.3%	24.7%	44.2%	0.56×	4.04
No goal scored	5.0%	4.1%	8.2%	0.50×	24.38

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	51.0%	52.8%	48.6%	1.09×	1.89
Not both teams to score	49.0%	47.2%	51.4%	0.92×	2.12

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	41.9%	42.3%	36.9%	1.15×	2.37
Not both score & under 2.5	33.1%	34.4%	41.0%	0.84×	2.90
Not both score & over 2.5	15.9%	17.7%	10.5%	1.69×	5.65
Both score & under 2.5	9.2%	8.7%	11.9%	0.74×	11.44

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.5%	85.5%	86.9%	0.98×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.5%	14.5%	13.1%	1.10×	6.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.3%	69.5%	74.7%	0.93×	1.44
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.7%	30.5%	25.3%	1.21×	3.28

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	58.8%	57.7%	63.1%	0.91×	1.73
Both score 2nd half only	26.1%	24.7%	20.5%	1.21×	4.06
Both score 1st half only	10.4%	11.5%	11.7%	0.98×	8.68
Both score in both halves	4.6%	4.8%	4.9%	0.98×	20.69

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	85.0%	83.3%	83.5%	1.00×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	15.0%	16.7%	16.5%	1.01×	5.98

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	58.7%	55.7%	51.8%	1.08×	1.80
A half without a goal	41.3%	44.3%	48.2%	0.92×	2.26

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.8%	43.3%	48.0%	0.90×	2.31
4-6 goals	32.0%	31.6%	23.5%	1.34×	3.17
0-1 goals	19.9%	20.8%	27.9%	0.75×	4.81
7+ goals	3.3%	2.0%	0.9%	2.22×	50.96

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa to score exactly 0	42.2%	41.4%	30.7%	1.35×	2.41
Genoa to score exactly 1	36.4%	34.6%	34.8%	0.99×	2.89
Genoa to score exactly 2	15.7%	18.3%	23.1%	0.79×	5.46
Genoa to score 3+	5.7%	7.6%	11.6%	0.65×	13.23

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to score 3+	36.1%	36.0%	14.4%	2.50×	2.78
Roma to score exactly 2	26.9%	27.1%	24.6%	1.10×	3.70
Roma to score exactly 1	25.2%	27.0%	32.3%	0.84×	3.70
Roma to score exactly 0	11.8%	13.4%	28.9%	0.46×	7.45

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma leading at HT	51.4%	52.5%	27.5%	1.91×	1.90
Draw at HT	37.7%	36.8%	45.2%	0.81×	2.72
Genoa leading at HT	10.9%	11.5%	27.4%	0.42×	8.73

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma -1: 1	42.7%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
Roma -1: 2	33.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Roma -1: X	24.0%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (0:1)	42.7%	41.8%	17.0%	2.45×	2.39
Genoa (0:1)	33.3%	34.7%	60.6%	0.57×	2.88
Draw (0:1)	24.0%	24.4%	22.5%	1.09×	4.09

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa (0:2)	57.3%	57.8%	83.0%	0.70×	1.73
Roma (0:2)	22.5%	21.7%	7.6%	2.86×	4.62
Draw (0:2)	20.2%	21.4%	9.6%	2.23×	4.67

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa (0:3)	77.5%	76.1%	92.4%	0.82×	1.32
Draw (0:3)	12.6%	12.5%	4.5%	2.74×	8.02
Roma (0:3)	9.9%	7.0%	3.2%	2.21×	14.31

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa (0:4)	90.1%	93.9%	96.8%	0.97×	1.07
Draw (0:4)	6.2%	7.1%	2.3%	3.11×	14.16
Roma (0:4)	3.7%	1.3%	1.0%	1.25×	79.47

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (1:0)	86.0%	88.2%	66.0%	1.34×	1.13
Draw (1:0)	9.7%	8.6%	19.9%	0.43×	11.58
Genoa (1:0)	4.3%	3.1%	14.1%	0.22×	32.58

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (2:0)	95.7%	97.2%	85.9%	1.13×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	3.3%	2.7%	8.5%	0.32×	37.00
Genoa (2:0)	1.0%	2.7%	5.8%	0.46×	37.56

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	50.4%	50.4%	46.6%	1.08×	1.98
1st half highest scoring	26.3%	26.1%	26.8%	0.98×	3.83
Halves equal	23.3%	23.2%	26.8%	0.87×	4.31

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to concede	57.8%	59.7%	69.3%	0.86×	1.68
Roma clean sheet	42.2%	40.3%	30.7%	1.32×	2.48

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma clean sheet in 1st half	75.3%	77.2%	59.0%	1.31×	1.30
Roma to concede in 1st half	24.7%	22.8%	41.0%	0.56×	4.39

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma over 0.5 goals	88.2%	87.8%	71.1%	1.24×	1.14
Roma under 3.5 goals	83.1%	82.4%	95.5%	0.86×	1.21
Roma under 2.5 goals	63.9%	62.7%	85.6%	0.73×	1.60
Roma over 1.5 goals	63.1%	62.7%	38.9%	1.61×	1.60
Roma under 1.5 goals	36.9%	37.3%	61.1%	0.61×	2.68
Roma over 2.5 goals	36.1%	37.3%	14.4%	2.59×	2.68
Roma over 3.5 goals	16.9%	17.6%	4.5%	3.86×	5.69
Roma under 0.5 goals	11.8%	12.2%	28.9%	0.42×	8.21

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma under 1.5 in 1st half	75.7%	78.9%	90.2%	0.88×	1.27
Roma over 0.5 in 1st half	61.0%	60.3%	41.2%	1.47×	1.66
Roma under 0.5 in 1st half	39.0%	39.7%	58.8%	0.67×	2.52
Roma over 1.5 in 1st half	24.3%	21.1%	9.8%	2.14×	4.74

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	58.1%	54.4%	44.1%	1.23×	1.84
Genoa (home no bet)	41.9%	45.6%	55.9%	0.82×	2.19

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma even goals	50.7%	50.2%	56.6%	0.89×	1.99
Roma odd goals	49.3%	49.8%	43.4%	1.15×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.4%	28.2%	34.3%	0.82×	3.55
HT 1-0	27.7%	28.1%	18.3%	1.53×	3.56
HT 2-0	13.0%	11.2%	5.6%	2.02×	8.93
HT 0-1	8.3%	7.7%	18.4%	0.42×	12.99
HT 1-1	7.8%	7.7%	10.5%	0.73×	13.00
Any other HT score	7.3%	7.7%	3.0%	2.54×	13.00
HT 2-1	3.7%	2.5%	2.3%	1.11×	39.79
HT 0-2	1.2%	2.5%	5.4%	0.46×	39.93
HT 1-2	1.1%	2.5%	2.5%	0.99×	39.94
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.5%	0.6%	3.96×	39.97

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma at HT / Roma at FT	45.1%	46.7%	21.3%	2.19×	2.14
Draw at HT / Roma at FT	19.3%	16.8%	15.8%	1.06×	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.6%	12.0%	16.7%	0.72×	8.36
Draw at HT / Genoa at FT	6.8%	6.6%	13.0%	0.50×	15.23
Genoa at HT / Genoa at FT	5.7%	6.6%	19.2%	0.34×	15.26
Roma at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.4%	4.4%	0.77×	29.31
Genoa at HT / Draw at FT	2.9%	3.4%	5.9%	0.57×	29.39
Genoa at HT / Roma at FT	2.3%	3.4%	2.5%	1.35×	29.42
Roma at HT / Genoa at FT	1.5%	3.4%	2.0%	1.68×	29.45

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to score last	67.7%	68.3%	48.4%	1.41×	1.46
Genoa to score last	27.3%	31.6%	43.6%	0.73×	3.16
No goal scored	5.0%	4.1%	8.2%	0.50×	24.38

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.0%	95.9%	91.8%	1.04×	1.04
Roma to lead by 1 at any time	77.4%	78.6%	54.7%	1.44×	1.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	56.7%	59.6%	42.6%	1.40×	1.68
Roma to lead by 2 at any time	49.0%	46.2%	22.9%	2.02×	2.17
Genoa to lead by 1 at any time	31.2%	32.0%	51.1%	0.63×	3.12
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	27.2%	26.0%	14.5%	1.79×	3.85
Roma to lead by 3 at any time	25.5%	25.9%	8.3%	3.11×	3.86
Genoa to lead by 2 at any time	8.0%	7.1%	20.1%	0.35×	14.17
Genoa to lead by 3 at any time	1.7%	2.6%	6.3%	0.41×	38.69

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.6%	87.9%	89.1%	0.99×	1.14
2-6 goals	76.8%	78.8%	71.3%	1.11×	1.27
1-4 goals	76.5%	78.8%	80.7%	0.98×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.7%	73.6%	69.4%	1.06×	1.36
2-4 goals	61.6%	62.3%	61.0%	1.02×	1.61
1-3 goals	59.7%	58.8%	67.7%	0.87×	1.70
3-6 goals	54.4%	52.4%	46.5%	1.13×	1.91
3-5 goals	49.4%	48.0%	44.6%	1.08×	2.08
2-3 goals	44.8%	43.6%	48.0%	0.91×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.2%	38.9%	36.1%	1.08×	2.57
1-2 goals	37.3%	38.8%	44.7%	0.87×	2.58
4-6 goals	32.0%	34.1%	23.5%	1.45×	2.93
4-5 goals	26.9%	30.4%	21.6%	1.41×	3.28
5-6 goals	15.2%	18.0%	10.5%	1.72×	5.54
7+ goals	3.3%	2.0%	0.9%	2.31×	49.01

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma never behind	63.8%	69.6%	48.9%	1.42×	1.44
Genoa never behind	17.7%	20.2%	45.3%	0.45×	4.95

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.1%	51.8%	0.97×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.9%	48.2%	1.03×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.3%	51.9%	56.8%	0.91×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.7%	48.1%	43.2%	1.11×	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.4%	51.7%	51.4%	1.01×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.6%	48.3%	48.6%	0.99×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.0%	95.6%	91.8%	1.04×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	91.6%	92.9%	97.2%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	81.5%	80.9%	88.8%	0.91×	1.24
Over 1.5 goals	80.1%	80.9%	72.1%	1.12×	1.24
Under 3.5 goals	64.6%	61.6%	75.8%	0.81×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	57.8%	57.7%	47.2%	1.22×	1.73
Under 2.5 goals	42.2%	42.3%	52.8%	0.80×	2.37
Over 3.5 goals	35.4%	38.4%	24.2%	1.58×	2.61
Under 1.5 goals	19.9%	19.1%	27.9%	0.68×	5.24
Over 4.5 goals	18.5%	19.1%	11.2%	1.70×	5.25
Over 5.5 goals	8.4%	7.1%	2.8%	2.54×	14.16
Under 0.5 goals	5.0%	4.4%	8.2%	0.54×	22.73

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.5%	97.2%	99.1%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.6%	92.7%	97.0%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	77.7%	76.5%	87.1%	0.88×	1.31
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	74.4%	72.2%	62.9%	1.15×	1.39
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	54.4%	53.2%	68.5%	0.78×	1.88
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.6%	46.8%	31.5%	1.49×	2.14
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	25.6%	27.8%	37.1%	0.75×	3.60
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	22.3%	23.5%	12.9%	1.82×	4.26
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.4%	7.3%	3.0%	2.41×	13.67
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.5%	2.8%	0.9%	3.09×	35.91

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.4%	88.1%	91.9%	0.96×	1.14
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.6%	72.4%	65.7%	1.10×	1.38
Under 1.5 in 1st half	65.4%	68.5%	70.8%	0.97×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	34.6%	31.5%	29.2%	1.08×	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.4%	27.6%	34.3%	0.80×	3.62
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.6%	11.9%	8.1%	1.48×	8.38

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	83.1%	82.1%	77.9%	1.05×	1.22
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	73.6%	76.4%	82.3%	0.93×	1.31
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	46.9%	51.8%	56.8%	0.91×	1.93
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	53.1%	48.2%	43.2%	1.12×	2.08
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	26.4%	23.7%	17.7%	1.34×	4.23
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	16.9%	17.9%	22.1%	0.81×	5.58

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa not to score in both halves	89.1%	84.6%	78.8%	1.07×	1.18
Roma not to score in both halves	57.4%	60.0%	76.3%	0.79×	1.67
Roma to score in both halves	42.6%	40.0%	23.7%	1.69×	2.50
Genoa to score in both halves	10.9%	15.4%	21.2%	0.73×	6.50

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	51.0%	54.6%	48.6%	1.12×	1.83
Only Roma scores	37.2%	39.9%	22.6%	1.77×	2.51
Only Genoa scores	6.8%	6.6%	20.8%	0.32×	15.05
Neither team scores	5.0%	4.0%	8.2%	0.48×	25.30

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.4%	21.5%	25.0%	0.86×	4.64
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	21.5%	23.1%	0.93×	4.64
Exactly 4 goals	16.8%	18.6%	13.1%	1.41×	5.39
Exactly 1 goals	14.9%	12.4%	19.8%	0.63×	8.07
Exactly 5 goals	10.1%	12.3%	8.6%	1.44×	8.11
6 or more goals	8.4%	7.6%	2.8%	2.74×	13.12
Exactly 0 goals	5.0%	4.4%	8.2%	0.53×	22.79

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	53.1%	47.5%	43.2%	1.10×	2.11
1 goal in 2nd half	30.0%	33.1%	34.8%	0.95×	3.02
No goals in 2nd half	16.9%	18.3%	22.1%	0.83×	5.46

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa not to win both halves	98.0%	96.7%	91.4%	1.06×	1.03
Roma not to win both halves	73.7%	73.9%	90.3%	0.82×	1.35
Roma to win both halves	26.3%	26.1%	9.7%	2.68×	3.84
Genoa to win both halves	2.0%	3.3%	8.6%	0.38×	30.39

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to win either half	76.3%	81.8%	52.5%	1.56×	1.22
Genoa to win neither half	73.1%	72.4%	51.6%	1.40×	1.38
Genoa to win either half	26.9%	27.6%	48.4%	0.57×	3.62
Roma to win neither half	23.7%	18.2%	47.5%	0.38×	5.51

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa not to win to nil	93.2%	92.4%	79.2%	1.17×	1.08
Roma not to win to nil	62.8%	61.3%	77.4%	0.79×	1.63
Roma to win to nil	37.2%	38.7%	22.6%	1.71×	2.59
Genoa to win to nil	6.8%	7.6%	20.8%	0.37×	13.10

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma by 1	24.0%	23.8%	22.5%	1.06×	4.21
Roma by 3+	22.5%	23.7%	7.6%	3.13×	4.21
Roma by 2	20.2%	23.7%	9.6%	2.47×	4.22
Draw	19.3%	17.0%	26.8%	0.64×	5.88
Genoa by 1	9.7%	7.1%	19.9%	0.36×	14.05
Genoa by 2	3.3%	2.8%	8.5%	0.33×	35.31
Genoa by 3+	1.0%	2.8%	5.8%	0.48×	35.64