Roma v Internazionale — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 18 October 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 12
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 7
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
1.52 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-2.15 – +0.04
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Roma win
34.2%
Draw
30.4%
Internazionale win
35.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Roma are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 27.0 xG
conceded 4
from 6.6 xG
Internazionale are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWDWWDDWWW last 10
scored 26
from 22.1 xG
conceded 12
from 13.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.15–1.18 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.25–1.48 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 55% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Roma 2.15 xGInternazionale 0.96 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Roma attacking right
Internazionale attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Internazionale |
Ange-Yoan Bonny | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nicolò Barella |
| 9' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 9' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 11' |
 Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Cristante |
| 12' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 13' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alessandro Bastoni |
| 22' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Roma |
Evan Ndicka | 0.36 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 27' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ange-Yoan Bonny |
| 47' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 49' |
Internazionale |
Denzel Dumfries | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alessandro Bastoni |
| 51' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kouadio Kone |
| 52' |
Roma |
Kouadio Kone | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 52' |
Roma |
Mario Hermoso | 0.42 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Lorenzo Pellegrini |
| 54' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.14 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 58' |
Roma |
Artem Dovbyk | 0.47 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 58' |
Roma |
Mehmet Zeki Çelik | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 63' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gianluca Mancini |
| 66' |
Internazionale |
Ange-Yoan Bonny | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 67' |
Roma |
Wesley | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kouadio Kone |
| 70' |
Internazionale |
Alessandro Bastoni | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Roma |
Mehmet Zeki Çelik | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kouadio Kone |
| 83' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 85' |
Internazionale |
Manuel Akanji | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Francesco Pio Esposito |
| 87' |
Roma |
Artem Dovbyk | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Evan Ferguson |
| 89' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Leon Bailey |
| 90' |
Roma |
Evan Ferguson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Denzel Dumfries DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Alessandro Bastoni DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| Francesco Acerbi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yann Sommer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Dimarco DML | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Nicolò Barella MC | 83 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny FW | 70 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.02 | 0.41 |
| Hakan Calhanoglu MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| Lautaro Martínez FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Francesco Pio Esposito Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| Davide Frattesi Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Petar Sucic Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Piotr Zielinski Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Augusto Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mehmet Zeki Çelik DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Bryan Cristante MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Wesley DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Kouadio Kone MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.39 | 0.53 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.47 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Matìas Soulè Malvano AMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.47 | 0.18 |
| Paulo Dybala FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.43 | 0.49 | 0.34 |
| Mario Hermoso DC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Evan Ndicka DC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini AMC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| Artem Dovbyk Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Jan Ziólkowski Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Leon Bailey Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Tommaso Baldanzi Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Evan Ferguson Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.08 |