Roma v Juventus — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 6 April 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 11
On target
4 – 7
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.68 – 0.14
Goals − xG
-0.41 – +0.01
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Roma win
35.8%
Draw
31.2%
Juventus win
33.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Roma are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 27.0 xG
conceded 4
from 6.6 xG
Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWDDWLDWWD last 10
scored 11
from 18.5 xG
conceded 6
from 6.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.34–1.28 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.34–1.28 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 53% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Roma 1.41 xGJuventus 0.99 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Roma attacking right
Juventus attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Juventus |
Timothy Weah | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lloyd Kelly |
| 11' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 15' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 24' |
 Roma |
Angelino | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Artem Dovbyk |
| 26' |
Juventus |
Nicolás González | 0.32 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Timothy Weah |
| 28' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kouadio Kone |
| 32' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 33' |
Juventus |
Nicolás González | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 36' |
Roma |
Stephan El Shaarawy | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 39' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 44' |
Roma |
Evan Ndicka | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Angelino |
| 45' |
Roma |
Stephan El Shaarawy | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gianluca Mancini |
| 48' |
Roma |
Eldor Shomurodov | 0.62 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 48' |
Roma |
Evan Ndicka | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 51' |
Roma |
Stephan El Shaarawy | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mehmet Zeki Çelik |
| 51' |
Roma |
Stephan El Shaarawy | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Artem Dovbyk |
| 59' |
Roma |
Artem Dovbyk | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Eldor Shomurodov |
| 61' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolás González |
| 71' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Teun Koopmeiners |
| 88' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Juventus |
Renato Veiga | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Teun Koopmeiners |
Players
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Ndicka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Angelino DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| Matìas Soulè Malvano AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.61 |
| Kouadio Kone MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Artem Dovbyk FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.45 | 0.63 |
| Mehmet Zeki Çelik DMR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Bryan Cristante MC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Stephan El Shaarawy AMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Mats Hummels DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Eldor Shomurodov Sub | 43 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Leandro Paredes Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Gourna Douath Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Victor Nelsson Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tommaso Baldanzi Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Juventus
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weston McKennie DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Renato Veiga DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Kenan Yildiz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.38 |
| Kephren Thuram MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Lloyd Kelly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.37 |
| Michele Di Gregorio GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.45 |
| Manuel Locatelli MC | 77 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Nicolás González AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.25 | 0.59 |
| Dusan Vlahovic FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Timothy Weah DML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Randal Kolo Muani Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Andrea Cambiaso Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Teun Koopmeiners Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| Nicolò Savona Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |