Roma v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 22 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 8
On target
2 – 2
Shots in box
12 – 5
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.34 – 0.12
Goals − xG
-0.10 – -0.84
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Roma win
61.3%
Draw
25.4%
Lecce win
13.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Roma are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWWWWDDW last 10
scored 23
from 26.6 xG
conceded 5
from 9.9 xG
Lecce are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWLLWLLW last 10
scored 13
from 16.0 xG
conceded 15
from 23.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.59–0.60 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.12–0.74 | 2-0 13% | 54% | 46% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Roma 1.10 xGLecce 0.84 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Roma attacking right
Lecce attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Pellegrini |
| 4' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Evan Ndicka |
| 8' |
 Lecce |
Ylber Ramadani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gianluca Mancini |
| 19' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gianluca Mancini |
| 28' |
Roma |
Evan Ndicka | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Pellegrini |
| 29' |
Lecce |
Nikola Stulic | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Danilo Veiga |
| 33' |
Roma |
Konstantinos Tsimikas | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Lecce |
Oumar Ngom | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antonino Gallo |
| 47' |
Lecce |
Tiago Gabriel | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nikola Stulic |
| 54' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lorenzo Pellegrini |
| 56' |
Roma |
Robinio Vaz | 0.33 | Open Play | — | Goal | Mario Hermoso |
| 62' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Cristante |
| 71' |
Lecce |
Sadik Fofana | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jamil Siebert |
| 72' |
Lecce |
Konan N’Dri | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Walid Cheddira |
| 72' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.39 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Lecce |
Walid Cheddira | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sadik Fofana |
| 77' |
Roma |
Antonio Arena | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lorenzo Pellegrini |
| 78' |
Roma |
Robinio Vaz | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Daniele Ghilardi |
| 83' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Angelino |
| 84' |
Roma |
Mario Hermoso | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Angelino |
| 89' |
Roma |
Antonio Arena | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Devyne Rensch |
Players
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Cristante MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.50 |
| Evan Ndicka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.33 |
| Mario Hermoso DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Niccolò Pisilli AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Devyne Rensch DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.54 |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini AMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.04 | 0.24 | 0.15 |
| Donyell Malen FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Konstantinos Tsimikas DML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Neil El Aynaoui MC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Daniele Ghilardi Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| Robinio Vaz Sub | 38 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Antonio Arena Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Angelino Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Lorenzo Venturino Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Oumar Ngom DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Antonino Gallo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| Danilo Veiga DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| Jamil Siebert DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| Ylber Ramadani DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Santiago Pierotti AMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Lameck Banda AML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikola Stulic FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| Omri Gandelman AMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Walid Cheddira Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| Sadik Fofana Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| Konan N’Dri Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Thórir Helgason Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alex Sala Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |