Roma v Sassuolo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Roma

14:00 UTC

Sassuolo

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 363h before kick-off

Roma win

69.8%

model 69.2%

Draw

19.2%

model 18.0%

Sassuolo win

11.0%

model 12.9%

701911

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (176 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 11.0%
2-1 9.7%
1-0 9.6%
1-1 8.5%
3-0 8.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	61.4%	Under 2.5	38.6%
BTTS yes	52.5%	BTTS no	47.5%
Roma 1+	89.9%	Roma 2+	66.7%
Sassuolo 1+	58.4%	Sassuolo 2+	21.9%

Expected goals 2.29 – 0.88. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

97/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Roma to lead by 2 at any time

Lead at any time · usually 24%

51.1% fair odds 1.96

strong signal · 1182 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Sassuolo not to score in both halves

Score both halves · usually 78%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 827 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Roma carry the stronger rating, 1755 Elo against 1539.
Roma have created 2.66 xG a match over their last five while Sassuolo have allowed 1.89.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.
At home Roma average 2.47 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Roma have an estimated 69.8% win probability, against 19.2% for the draw and 11.0% for Sassuolo. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.29 for Roma and 0.88 for Sassuolo.

Why Roma

Roma carry the stronger rating, 1755 Elo against 1539. Roma have created 2.66 xG a match over their last five while Sassuolo have allowed 1.89. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five. At home Roma average 2.47 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 19.2%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Sassuolo can win

Sassuolo have created 1.88 xG a match over their last five while Roma have allowed 0.99. Away from home Sassuolo average 1.94 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Roma were missing 1.97 expected goal involvements a match against 0.94.

Key players

Roma's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Donyell Malen (0.81), Paulo Dybala (0.60), Artem Dovbyk (0.30). Sassuolo's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Armand Lauriente (0.43), Domenico Berardi (0.38), Andrea Pinamonti (0.34).

Availability

2 of Roma's top three contributors did not start their last match. 64% of Roma's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Sassuolo's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Sassuolo's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Roma: 53% possession, 19.0 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.22 xG a match from set pieces. Sassuolo: 49% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 17.4 faced, 0.33 xG a match from set pieces. Roma's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Roma are the model's most likely outcome at 69.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 11.0%. Confidence 97/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Roma are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWWWWWWDDW last 10 scored 23 from 26.6 xG conceded 5 from 9.9 xG

Sassuolo are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LLLLWDWLDL last 10 scored 15 from 18.8 xG conceded 20 from 18.9 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	691813	2.29–0.88	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	661915	2.16–0.92	2-0 11%	59%	53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to win	65.4%	64.7%	40.1%	1.61×	1.55
Draw	19.0%	19.4%	26.4%	0.73×	5.15
Sassuolo to win	15.6%	19.4%	33.6%	0.58×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma & not both score	32.9%	29.6%	22.6%	1.31×	3.38
Roma & both teams score	32.5%	29.6%	17.6%	1.68×	3.38
Draw & both teams score	15.1%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.57
Sassuolo & both teams score	8.9%	8.3%	13.2%	0.63×	12.01
Sassuolo & not both score	6.7%	8.3%	20.5%	0.41×	12.01
Draw & not both score	3.9%	4.9%	7.9%	0.61×	20.58

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma & over 1.5	56.6%	54.9%	30.0%	1.83×	1.82
Roma & over 2.5	46.7%	45.0%	23.4%	1.92×	2.22
Roma & under 3.5	35.8%	34.9%	29.5%	1.18×	2.87
Roma & over 3.5	29.6%	26.1%	10.7%	2.44×	3.84
Roma & under 2.5	18.6%	18.0%	16.8%	1.07×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	15.1%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	12.7%	12.8%	19.7%	0.65×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	12.7%	12.8%	19.7%	0.65×	7.79
Sassuolo & over 1.5	11.7%	12.8%	24.6%	0.52×	7.79
Sassuolo & under 3.5	10.9%	12.8%	26.3%	0.49×	7.79
Roma & under 1.5	8.8%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Sassuolo & over 2.5	9.7%	7.9%	18.1%	0.44×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.3%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.3%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63
Sassuolo & under 2.5	5.9%	7.9%	15.6%	0.51×	12.63
Sassuolo & over 3.5	4.7%	4.8%	7.4%	0.65×	20.81
Draw & under 1.5	3.9%	4.8%	7.9%	0.61×	20.81
Sassuolo & under 1.5	3.9%	4.8%	9.1%	0.53×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (1UP)	77.3%	78.8%	55.3%	1.42×	1.27
Sassuolo (1UP)	34.5%	33.2%	50.4%	0.66×	3.02

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (2UP)	65.4%	67.9%	41.9%	1.62×	1.47
Sassuolo (2UP)	15.6%	17.1%	36.1%	0.47×	5.86

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to win 2nd half	50.5%	50.9%	34.9%	1.46×	1.97
2nd half drawn	30.3%	34.3%	35.1%	0.98×	2.92
Sassuolo to win 2nd half	19.2%	18.3%	30.1%	0.61×	5.47

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.8%	87.0%	85.0%	1.02×	1.15
Sassuolo under 0.5 in 2nd half	53.2%	52.4%	49.9%	1.05×	1.91
Sassuolo over 0.5 in 2nd half	46.8%	47.6%	50.1%	0.95×	2.10
Sassuolo over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.2%	13.0%	15.0%	0.87×	7.68

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma over 0.5 in 2nd half	70.5%	73.9%	53.8%	1.37×	1.35
Roma under 1.5 in 2nd half	65.5%	70.5%	81.4%	0.87×	1.42
Roma over 1.5 in 2nd half	34.5%	29.5%	18.6%	1.59×	3.39
Roma under 0.5 in 2nd half	29.5%	26.1%	46.2%	0.57×	3.83

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (+0.5)	84.4%	82.5%	66.4%	1.24×	1.21
Sassuolo (+2.5)	77.2%	78.5%	92.3%	0.85×	1.27
Roma (-0.5)	65.4%	68.7%	40.1%	1.71×	1.46
Sassuolo (+1.5)	57.7%	57.0%	82.5%	0.69×	1.75
Roma (-1.5)	42.3%	43.0%	17.5%	2.45×	2.33
Sassuolo (+0.5)	34.6%	31.3%	59.9%	0.52×	3.19
Roma (-2.5)	22.8%	21.5%	7.7%	2.80×	4.65
Sassuolo (-0.5)	15.6%	17.5%	33.6%	0.52×	5.73

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo to concede	89.3%	86.3%	71.7%	1.20×	1.16
Sassuolo clean sheet	10.7%	13.7%	28.3%	0.48×	7.32

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo to concede in 1st half	63.9%	65.0%	42.1%	1.54×	1.54
Sassuolo clean sheet in 1st half	36.1%	35.0%	57.9%	0.60×	2.86

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo to concede in 2nd half	70.5%	70.7%	53.8%	1.32×	1.41
Sassuolo clean sheet in 2nd half	29.5%	29.3%	46.2%	0.63×	3.42

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo under 6.5 corners	93.8%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Sassuolo under 5.5 corners	88.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Sassuolo under 4.5 corners	78.9%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Sassuolo under 3.5 corners	64.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Sassuolo over 2.5 corners	54.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Sassuolo under 2.5 corners	46.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Sassuolo over 3.5 corners	35.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Sassuolo over 4.5 corners	21.1%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Sassuolo over 5.5 corners	11.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.78
Sassuolo over 6.5 corners	6.2%	10.1%	—	—	9.92

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo under 3.5 goals	98.1%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Sassuolo under 2.5 goals	92.0%	92.3%	88.1%	1.05×	1.08
Sassuolo under 1.5 goals	73.6%	71.9%	64.9%	1.11×	1.39
Sassuolo over 0.5 goals	63.2%	63.2%	69.6%	0.91×	1.58
Sassuolo under 0.5 goals	36.8%	36.8%	30.4%	1.21×	2.72
Sassuolo over 1.5 goals	26.4%	28.1%	35.1%	0.80×	3.56
Sassuolo over 2.5 goals	8.0%	7.7%	11.9%	0.64×	13.05
Sassuolo over 3.5 goals	1.9%	2.5%	2.9%	0.87×	39.94

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo under 1.5 in 1st half	94.7%	94.1%	89.9%	1.05×	1.06
Sassuolo under 0.5 in 1st half	69.2%	69.8%	58.8%	1.19×	1.43
Sassuolo over 0.5 in 1st half	30.8%	30.2%	41.2%	0.73×	3.31
Sassuolo over 1.5 in 1st half	5.3%	5.9%	10.1%	0.59×	16.92

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo scores equally in both	45.9%	47.7%	43.3%	1.10×	2.10
Sassuolo scores more in 2nd half	35.9%	37.3%	32.9%	1.13×	2.68
Sassuolo scores more in 1st half	18.3%	17.8%	23.9%	0.74×	5.62

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (away no bet)	77.4%	73.6%	60.3%	1.22×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	22.6%	26.4%	39.7%	0.67×	3.79

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo even goals	56.8%	56.9%	55.6%	1.02×	1.76
Sassuolo odd goals	43.2%	43.1%	44.4%	0.97×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	77.7%	81.2%	87.3%	0.93×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	22.3%	18.8%	12.7%	1.48×	5.32

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	73.3%	67.5%	60.3%	1.12×	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	26.7%	32.5%	39.7%	0.82×	3.07

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	67.5%	62.4%	53.4%	1.17×	1.60
Roma to score 2+ in a row	57.6%	55.2%	31.8%	1.74×	1.81
Either team to score 3+ in a row	31.9%	29.2%	17.9%	1.63×	3.43
Roma to score 3+ in a row	28.8%	25.2%	10.1%	2.50×	3.97
Sassuolo to score 2+ in a row	17.1%	16.2%	27.7%	0.59×	6.16
Sassuolo to score 3+ in a row	3.5%	2.6%	7.9%	0.33×	38.59

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma corners (+3.5)	96.4%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Roma corners (+2.5)	93.4%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Roma corners (+1.5)	88.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Roma corners (-1.5)	63.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Sassuolo corners (+3.5)	58.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Roma corners (-2.5)	52.5%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Sassuolo corners (+2.5)	47.5%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Roma corners (-3.5)	41.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Sassuolo corners (+1.5)	36.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Sassuolo corners (-1.5)	11.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Sassuolo corners (-2.5)	6.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Sassuolo corners (-3.5)	3.6%	4.3%	—	—	23.44

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	49.1%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
9-11 corners	27.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	23.9%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	82.5%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	76.1%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	68.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	61.5%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	59.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	50.9%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	49.1%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	40.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	38.5%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	31.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	23.9%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	17.5%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	8.8%	7.4%	10.2%	0.73×	13.51
1-1	8.8%	7.4%	11.9%	0.62×	13.51
2-0	9.8%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.50
2-1	9.8%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.50
3-0	7.3%	7.4%	3.6%	2.06×	13.51
3-1	7.3%	7.4%	3.1%	2.37×	13.51
Any other score	8.0%	7.4%	2.8%	2.68×	13.51
2-2	4.9%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	58.29
0-0	3.9%	1.7%	7.9%	0.22×	58.30
0-1	3.9%	1.7%	9.1%	0.19×	58.30
0-2	2.0%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.31
0-3	0.7%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.32
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.32
1-2	4.4%	1.7%	7.4%	0.23×	58.29
1-3	1.5%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.31
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.38×	58.32
2-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.31
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
3-2	3.7%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.30
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
4-0	4.1%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.30
4-1	4.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.30
4-2	2.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.31
4-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (2nd half DNB)	72.4%	71.1%	53.7%	1.32×	1.41
Sassuolo (2nd half DNB)	27.6%	28.9%	46.3%	0.62×	3.46

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma leading at HT (DNB)	79.6%	75.7%	51.2%	1.48×	1.32
Sassuolo leading at HT (DNB)	20.4%	24.3%	48.8%	0.50×	4.12

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma or draw (1X)	84.4%	80.6%	66.4%	1.21×	1.24
Roma or Sassuolo (12)	81.0%	80.6%	73.6%	1.10×	1.24
Sassuolo or draw (X2)	34.6%	35.3%	59.9%	0.59×	2.83

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma or draw at HT	86.8%	87.7%	72.9%	1.20×	1.14
Roma or Sassuolo at HT	64.7%	61.4%	55.5%	1.11×	1.63
Sassuolo or draw at HT	48.5%	52.5%	71.5%	0.73×	1.91

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma or draw (1UP)	84.4%	88.8%	71.7%	1.24×	1.13
Sassuolo or draw (1UP)	34.6%	39.4%	65.4%	0.60×	2.54

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma or draw in 2nd half	80.8%	81.7%	69.9%	1.17×	1.22
Roma or Sassuolo in 2nd half	69.7%	65.7%	64.9%	1.01×	1.52
Sassuolo or draw in 2nd half	49.5%	49.1%	65.1%	0.75×	2.04

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	54.9%	50.4%	63.5%	0.79×	1.98
Neither half drawn	45.1%	49.6%	36.5%	1.36×	2.02

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (DNB)	80.7%	80.2%	54.4%	1.47×	1.25
Sassuolo (DNB)	19.3%	19.8%	45.6%	0.43×	5.05

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to score first	66.4%	69.3%	48.6%	1.43×	1.44
Sassuolo to score first	29.7%	28.2%	43.6%	0.65×	3.55
No goal scored	3.9%	4.3%	7.9%	0.54×	23.32

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	56.5%	55.0%	49.2%	1.12×	1.82
Not both teams to score	43.5%	45.0%	50.8%	0.89×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	47.7%	44.3%	37.5%	1.18×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	28.4%	33.3%	40.1%	0.83×	3.00
Not both score & over 2.5	15.1%	21.5%	10.8%	1.99×	4.65
Both score & under 2.5	8.8%	8.3%	11.9%	0.70×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	82.7%	82.6%	86.4%	0.96×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	17.3%	17.4%	13.6%	1.28×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	67.0%	67.4%	74.8%	0.90×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	33.0%	32.6%	25.2%	1.29×	3.07

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	53.8%	54.8%	62.7%	0.87×	1.83
Both score 2nd half only	26.5%	27.1%	20.4%	1.33×	3.69
Both score 1st half only	13.2%	10.8%	12.2%	0.88×	9.30
Both score in both halves	6.5%	6.8%	4.9%	1.38×	14.74

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.3%	83.2%	83.0%	1.00×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	19.7%	16.8%	17.0%	0.99×	5.95

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	63.2%	59.7%	52.8%	1.13×	1.67
A half without a goal	36.8%	40.3%	47.2%	0.85×	2.48

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	42.8%	42.1%	48.4%	0.87×	2.37
4-6 goals	35.9%	35.1%	23.9%	1.47×	2.85
0-1 goals	16.6%	20.2%	27.0%	0.75×	4.95
7+ goals	4.7%	1.9%	1.0%	1.93×	54.03

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo to score exactly 0	36.8%	35.9%	30.4%	1.18×	2.78
Sassuolo to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.9%	34.7%	1.04×	2.78
Sassuolo to score exactly 2	18.4%	19.6%	23.3%	0.84×	5.11
Sassuolo to score 3+	8.0%	8.6%	11.9%	0.72×	11.69

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to score 3+	38.8%	35.6%	15.1%	2.35×	2.81
Roma to score exactly 2	26.7%	26.5%	24.7%	1.07×	3.77
Roma to score exactly 1	23.9%	23.3%	32.1%	0.73×	4.29
Roma to score exactly 0	10.7%	14.3%	28.3%	0.50×	7.00

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma leading at HT	51.5%	47.5%	28.5%	1.67×	2.10
Draw at HT	35.3%	38.6%	44.5%	0.87×	2.59
Sassuolo leading at HT	13.2%	12.3%	27.1%	0.45×	8.15

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma -1: 1	42.3%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Roma -1: 2	34.6%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Roma -1: X	23.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (0:1)	42.3%	42.6%	17.5%	2.43×	2.35
Sassuolo (0:1)	34.6%	30.2%	59.9%	0.50×	3.32
Draw (0:1)	23.0%	24.2%	22.7%	1.07×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo (0:2)	57.7%	63.0%	82.5%	0.76×	1.59
Roma (0:2)	22.8%	20.3%	7.7%	2.64×	4.92
Draw (0:2)	19.6%	15.3%	10.0%	1.54×	6.53

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo (0:3)	77.2%	80.5%	92.3%	0.87×	1.24
Draw (0:3)	12.5%	10.0%	4.7%	2.13×	10.05
Roma (0:3)	10.3%	9.9%	3.1%	3.18×	10.09

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo (0:4)	89.7%	92.0%	96.9%	0.95×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	6.3%	4.6%	2.3%	2.02×	21.71
Roma (0:4)	3.9%	1.2%	1.0%	1.28×	81.66

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (1:0)	84.4%	81.4%	66.4%	1.23×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	10.3%	12.7%	19.3%	0.66×	7.88
Sassuolo (1:0)	5.3%	6.9%	14.4%	0.48×	14.53

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (2:0)	94.7%	94.0%	85.6%	1.10×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	3.9%	2.3%	8.6%	0.27×	43.59
Sassuolo (2:0)	1.4%	2.3%	5.9%	0.39×	43.74

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.5%	48.8%	46.2%	1.05×	2.05
1st half highest scoring	28.9%	26.2%	27.0%	0.97×	3.81
Halves equal	22.6%	24.5%	26.9%	0.91×	4.09

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to concede	63.2%	63.7%	69.6%	0.91×	1.57
Roma clean sheet	36.8%	36.3%	30.4%	1.20×	2.75

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma clean sheet in 1st half	69.2%	70.1%	58.8%	1.19×	1.43
Roma to concede in 1st half	30.8%	29.9%	41.2%	0.73×	3.35

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma clean sheet in 2nd half	53.2%	52.6%	49.9%	1.05×	1.90
Roma to concede in 2nd half	46.8%	47.4%	50.1%	0.95×	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma over 2.5 corners	86.7%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Roma over 3.5 corners	75.9%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Roma over 4.5 corners	63.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Roma under 6.5 corners	61.4%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Roma over 5.5 corners	50.4%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Roma under 5.5 corners	49.6%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Roma over 6.5 corners	38.6%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Roma under 4.5 corners	36.7%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Roma under 3.5 corners	24.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Roma under 2.5 corners	13.3%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma over 0.5 goals	89.3%	87.3%	71.7%	1.22×	1.15
Roma under 3.5 goals	81.2%	82.2%	95.3%	0.86×	1.22
Roma over 1.5 goals	65.5%	67.9%	39.7%	1.71×	1.47
Roma under 2.5 goals	61.2%	63.6%	84.9%	0.75×	1.57
Roma over 2.5 goals	38.8%	36.4%	15.1%	2.41×	2.75
Roma under 1.5 goals	34.5%	32.1%	60.3%	0.53×	3.12
Roma over 3.5 goals	18.8%	17.8%	4.7%	3.80×	5.62
Roma under 0.5 goals	10.7%	12.7%	28.3%	0.45×	7.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma under 1.5 in 1st half	72.9%	79.2%	89.3%	0.89×	1.26
Roma over 0.5 in 1st half	63.9%	64.8%	42.1%	1.54×	1.54
Roma under 0.5 in 1st half	36.1%	35.2%	57.9%	0.61×	2.84
Roma over 1.5 in 1st half	27.1%	20.8%	10.7%	1.95×	4.81

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma scores more in 2nd half	40.7%	42.2%	36.3%	1.16×	2.37
Roma scores more in 1st half	30.6%	33.1%	22.2%	1.49×	3.02
Roma scores equally in both	28.6%	27.8%	41.7%	0.67×	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	54.9%	51.4%	44.0%	1.17×	1.95
Sassuolo (home no bet)	45.1%	48.6%	56.0%	0.87×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma even goals	50.6%	50.7%	56.2%	0.90×	1.97
Roma odd goals	49.4%	49.3%	43.8%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	25.4%	28.2%	18.5%	1.52×	3.55
HT 0-0	25.0%	24.4%	33.7%	0.72×	4.10
HT 2-0	13.0%	11.0%	5.8%	1.91×	9.11
HT 1-1	9.4%	6.9%	10.3%	0.67×	14.44
HT 0-1	9.2%	6.9%	18.1%	0.38×	14.44
Any other HT score	8.9%	6.9%	3.4%	2.06×	14.45
HT 2-1	4.8%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	41.98
HT 0-2	1.7%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	42.19
HT 1-2	1.7%	2.4%	2.6%	0.90×	42.18
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.4%	0.7%	3.29×	42.24

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma at HT / Roma at FT	44.9%	41.6%	22.1%	1.88×	2.40
Draw at HT / Roma at FT	17.8%	16.8%	15.8%	1.06×	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	10.7%	12.6%	16.1%	0.79×	7.91
Sassuolo at HT / Sassuolo at FT	7.2%	6.0%	19.1%	0.32×	16.62
Draw at HT / Sassuolo at FT	6.8%	6.0%	12.8%	0.47×	16.63
Roma at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	3.5%	4.7%	0.75×	28.61
Sassuolo at HT / Draw at FT	3.3%	3.5%	5.9%	0.59×	28.67
Sassuolo at HT / Roma at FT	2.7%	3.5%	2.4%	1.45×	28.69
Roma at HT / Sassuolo at FT	1.7%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.73

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to score last	66.4%	70.1%	48.1%	1.46×	1.43
Sassuolo to score last	29.7%	27.9%	44.1%	0.63×	3.59
No goal scored	3.9%	4.3%	7.9%	0.54×	23.32

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.1%	95.6%	92.1%	1.04×	1.05
Roma to lead by 1 at any time	77.3%	78.4%	55.3%	1.42×	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	58.9%	54.9%	43.7%	1.26×	1.82
Roma to lead by 2 at any time	49.4%	44.6%	24.0%	1.86×	2.24
Sassuolo to lead by 1 at any time	34.5%	29.9%	50.4%	0.59×	3.34
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	28.5%	25.5%	15.1%	1.69×	3.91
Roma to lead by 3 at any time	26.2%	25.5%	8.8%	2.91×	3.93
Sassuolo to lead by 2 at any time	9.9%	6.8%	20.2%	0.33×	14.80
Sassuolo to lead by 3 at any time	2.3%	1.6%	6.5%	0.25×	62.40

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma most corners	73.6%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Sassuolo most corners	17.7%	19.2%	—	—	5.21
Corners level	8.6%	8.4%	—	—	11.97

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.1%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.7%	78.7%	72.1%	1.09×	1.27
1-4 goals	73.5%	72.4%	80.7%	0.90×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.4%	72.4%	70.1%	1.03×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.8%	63.3%	61.6%	1.03×	1.58
3-6 goals	58.1%	59.1%	47.3%	1.25×	1.69
1-3 goals	55.5%	59.1%	67.5%	0.88×	1.69
3-5 goals	51.9%	53.2%	45.3%	1.17×	1.88
2-3 goals	42.8%	43.6%	48.4%	0.90×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.2%	43.6%	36.7%	1.19×	2.30
4-6 goals	35.9%	39.2%	23.9%	1.64×	2.55
1-2 goals	33.3%	35.2%	44.1%	0.80×	2.84
4-5 goals	29.6%	30.2%	21.8%	1.38×	3.31
5-6 goals	17.9%	18.8%	10.7%	1.76×	5.31
7+ goals	4.7%	2.6%	1.0%	2.67×	39.01

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma never behind	61.5%	68.1%	49.6%	1.37×	1.47
Sassuolo never behind	18.8%	18.5%	44.7%	0.42×	5.39

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.1%	51.6%	56.5%	0.91×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.9%	48.4%	43.5%	1.11×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.2%	51.9%	50.7%	1.02×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.8%	48.1%	49.3%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.1%	95.4%	92.1%	1.04×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	89.0%	87.6%	97.0%	0.90×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	83.4%	82.3%	73.0%	1.13×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	77.4%	77.3%	88.5%	0.87×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	62.8%	61.7%	48.1%	1.28×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	59.4%	58.6%	75.3%	0.78×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	40.6%	41.4%	24.7%	1.67×	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	37.2%	38.3%	51.9%	0.74×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	22.6%	22.7%	11.5%	1.97×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	16.6%	17.7%	27.0%	0.66×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	11.0%	12.4%	3.0%	4.13×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	3.9%	4.6%	7.9%	0.58×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.0%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	87.6%	86.7%	96.7%	0.90×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	79.1%	75.9%	64.1%	1.18×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	72.4%	72.4%	86.7%	0.83×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	52.2%	51.9%	32.3%	1.61×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	47.8%	48.1%	67.7%	0.71×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	27.6%	27.6%	13.3%	2.08×	3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	20.9%	24.1%	35.9%	0.67×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	12.4%	13.3%	3.3%	4.04×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.0%	2.8%	1.0%	2.87×	35.51

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	83.7%	85.8%	91.2%	0.94×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	75.0%	78.2%	66.3%	1.18×	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	59.6%	63.9%	70.1%	0.91×	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	40.4%	36.1%	29.9%	1.21×	2.77
Under 0.5 in 1st half	25.0%	21.8%	33.7%	0.64×	4.60
Over 2.5 in 1st half	16.3%	14.2%	8.8%	1.62×	7.06

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	84.3%	83.3%	78.6%	1.06×	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	71.7%	77.5%	82.4%	0.94×	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	55.2%	54.8%	43.1%	1.27×	1.83
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	44.8%	45.2%	56.9%	0.80×	2.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	28.3%	22.5%	17.6%	1.27×	4.45
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	15.7%	16.7%	21.4%	0.78×	5.98

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo not to score in both halves	85.6%	85.4%	78.4%	1.09×	1.17
Roma not to score in both halves	55.0%	55.7%	75.8%	0.73×	1.80
Roma to score in both halves	45.0%	44.3%	24.3%	1.83×	2.26
Sassuolo to score in both halves	14.4%	14.6%	21.6%	0.67×	6.86

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	56.5%	58.6%	49.2%	1.19×	1.71
Only Roma scores	32.9%	33.3%	22.6%	1.48×	3.00
Only Sassuolo scores	6.7%	7.1%	20.5%	0.35×	14.04
Neither team scores	3.9%	4.6%	7.9%	0.58×	21.69

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	22.6%	23.5%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	20.6%	22.6%	25.0%	0.90×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	18.0%	17.5%	13.3%	1.31×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	12.7%	12.1%	19.2%	0.63×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	11.7%	12.1%	8.6%	1.40×	8.25
6 or more goals	11.0%	12.1%	3.0%	4.04×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	3.9%	4.5%	7.9%	0.56×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.7%	35.9%	36.5%	0.98×	2.79
No goals in 1st half	25.0%	21.5%	33.7%	0.64×	4.65
2 goals in 1st half	24.0%	21.5%	21.2%	1.01×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	16.3%	15.6%	8.8%	1.78×	6.40

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	55.2%	54.0%	43.1%	1.25×	1.85
1 goal in 2nd half	29.1%	29.3%	35.7%	0.82×	3.42
No goals in 2nd half	15.7%	16.4%	21.4%	0.77×	6.11

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo not to win both halves	97.5%	97.2%	91.1%	1.07×	1.03
Roma not to win both halves	74.0%	73.0%	89.9%	0.81×	1.37
Roma to win both halves	26.0%	27.0%	10.1%	2.68×	3.70
Sassuolo to win both halves	2.5%	2.8%	8.9%	0.31×	35.76

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to win either half	76.0%	79.7%	53.3%	1.49×	1.26
Sassuolo to win neither half	70.1%	72.9%	51.6%	1.41×	1.37
Sassuolo to win either half	29.9%	27.1%	48.4%	0.56×	3.69
Roma to win neither half	24.0%	20.3%	46.7%	0.44×	4.92

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo not to win to nil	93.3%	92.1%	79.5%	1.16×	1.09
Roma not to win to nil	67.1%	69.6%	77.4%	0.90×	1.44
Roma to win to nil	32.9%	30.4%	22.6%	1.34×	3.30
Sassuolo to win to nil	6.7%	7.9%	20.5%	0.38×	12.67

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma by 1	23.0%	24.1%	22.7%	1.06×	4.15
Roma by 3+	22.8%	24.1%	7.7%	3.14×	4.15
Roma by 2	19.6%	17.1%	10.0%	1.71×	5.87
Draw	19.0%	17.1%	26.4%	0.65×	5.87
Sassuolo by 1	10.3%	11.7%	19.3%	0.61×	8.51
Sassuolo by 2	3.9%	2.7%	8.6%	0.31×	36.78
Sassuolo by 3+	1.4%	2.7%	5.9%	0.46×	36.86