Roma v Torino — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 14 September 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 8
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 4
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.32 – 0.46
Goals − xG
-1.03 – +0.20
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Roma win
52.2%
Draw
29.3%
Torino win
18.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Roma are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 27.0 xG
conceded 4
from 6.6 xG
Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLWLDLLW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 15
from 17.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.45–0.77 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.87–0.69 | 1-0 14% | 47% | 42% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Roma 1.03 xGTorino 0.80 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Roma attacking right
Torino attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 11' |
 Torino |
Guillermo Maripán | 0.43 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Kristjan Asllani |
| 13' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
| 15' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 27' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Cristiano Biraghi |
| 33' |
Roma |
Gianluca Mancini | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 33' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Cristante |
| 35' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 45' |
Roma |
Angelino | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Wesley |
| 47' |
Roma |
Mario Hermoso | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 50' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 53' |
Roma |
Tommaso Baldanzi | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Roma |
Evan Ferguson | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Wesley |
| 58' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 58' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Cyril Ngonge |
| 62' |
Roma |
Gianluca Mancini | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 62' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kouadio Kone |
| 65' |
Torino |
Zakaria Aboukhlal | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 80' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ivan Ilic |
| 82' |
Roma |
Gianluca Mancini | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mehmet Zeki Çelik |
| 82' |
Roma |
Stephan El Shaarawy | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Evan Ndicka |
| 88' |
Roma |
Gianluca Mancini | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tommaso Baldanzi |
| 90' |
Roma |
Niccolò Pisilli | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Evan Ferguson |
| 92' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gianluca Mancini |
| 95' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Tommaso Baldanzi |
| 96' |
Roma |
Stephan El Shaarawy | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mehmet Zeki Çelik |
| 97' |
Torino |
Cristiano Biraghi | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guillermo Maripán DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Cristiano Biraghi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| Valentino Lazaro DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Saúl Coco DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ardian Ismajli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Franco Israel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikola Vlasic FWL | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| Kristjan Asllani MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.05 |
| Cyril Ngonge FWR | 68 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| Giovanni Simeone FW | 67 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Cesare Casadei MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ivan Ilic Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Che Adams Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zakaria Aboukhlal Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Adrien Tameze Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Faustino Anjorin Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matìas Soulè Malvano FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.21 | 0.55 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 0.36 |
| Wesley MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| Evan Ndicka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.21 |
| Kouadio Kone MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.28 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Mario Hermoso DC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Angelino ML | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Bryan Cristante MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Paulo Dybala FW | 49 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| Neil El Aynaoui AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Evan Ferguson Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.33 |
| Tommaso Baldanzi Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
| Niccolò Pisilli Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Stephan El Shaarawy Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mehmet Zeki Çelik Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.08 |