Roma v Udinese — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 9 November 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 10
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 7
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.76 – 0.16
Goals − xG
+0.24 – -0.93
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Roma win
59.2%
Draw
26.3%
Udinese win
14.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Roma are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 27.0 xG
conceded 4
from 6.6 xG
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDWWLLDWL last 10
scored 15
from 14.4 xG
conceded 11
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.63–0.68 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.94–0.91 | 1-0 11% | 54% | 51% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Roma 1.76 xGUdinese 0.93 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Roma attacking right
Udinese attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' |
 Roma |
Kouadio Kone | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 12' |
Roma |
Kouadio Kone | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Artem Dovbyk |
| 20' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
Roma |
Mehmet Zeki Çelik | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Wesley |
| 22' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 22' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Cristante |
| 25' |
 Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jesper Karlström |
| 29' |
Roma |
Artem Dovbyk | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lorenzo Pellegrini |
| 29' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 34' |
Udinese |
Hassane Kamara | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arthur Atta |
| 34' |
Udinese |
Jesper Karlström | 0.09 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 43' |
Roma |
Tommaso Baldanzi | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kouadio Kone |
| 43' |
Udinese |
Jesper Karlström | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
Udinese |
Adam Buksa | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 59' |
Udinese |
Jesper Karlström | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 60' |
Roma |
Mehmet Zeki Çelik | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Gianluca Mancini |
| 71' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 77' |
Roma |
Tommaso Baldanzi | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Cristante |
| 78' |
Roma |
Stephan El Shaarawy | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bryan Cristante |
| 84' |
Udinese |
Vakoun Bayo | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Arthur Atta |
| 88' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alessandro Zanoli |
| 91' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alessandro Zanoli |
Players
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur Atta MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.07 | 0.25 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Nicolò Bertola DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Alessandro Zanoli DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Maduka Okoye GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolo Zaniolo FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.12 | 0.45 |
| Hassane Kamara DML | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.31 |
| Adam Buksa FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Christian Kabasele DC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Palma Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Keinan Davis Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jakub Piotrowski Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Vakoun Bayo Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Zemura Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mehmet Zeki Çelik DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Kouadio Kone MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.73 |
| Bryan Cristante MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.18 | 0.55 |
| Evan Ndicka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| Wesley DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.28 |
| Mario Hermoso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini AMC | 78 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.82 | 0.09 | 0.61 |
| Matìas Soulè Malvano AMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Tommaso Baldanzi Sub | 49 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Artem Dovbyk FW | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| Stephan El Shaarawy Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Neil El Aynaoui Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jan Ziólkowski Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniele Ghilardi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |