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Rosario Central v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Rosario Central win
69.4%
model 69.7%
Draw
23.0%
model 21.3%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto win
7.6%
model 9.1%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (115 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 16.7%
  2. 2-0 16.0%
  3. 3-0 10.0%
  4. 0-0 9.5%
  5. 1-1 9.3%

Goals

Over 2.542.8% Under 2.557.2%
BTTS yes34.7% BTTS no65.3%
Rosario Central 1+84.6% Rosario Central 2+55.9%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 1+40.5% Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 2+9.6%

Expected goals 1.87 – 0.52. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
24/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
Rosario Central over 1.5 goals
Home goals O/U · usually 32%
56.0% fair odds 1.78
strong signal · 926 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Rosario Central over 0.5 goals
Home goals O/U · usually 68%
82.7% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 1431 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Rosario Central carry the stronger rating, 1621 Elo against 1348.

Risk factors

  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0026 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Rosario Central have an estimated 69.4% win probability, against 23.0% for the draw and 7.6% for Estudiantes de Río Cuarto. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.87 for Rosario Central and 0.52 for Estudiantes de Río Cuarto.

Why Rosario Central

Rosario Central carry the stronger rating, 1621 Elo against 1348.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. A combined 2.39 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Estudiantes de Río Cuarto can win

Nothing in the data singles out Estudiantes de Río Cuarto.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Rosario Central, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Estudiantes de Río Cuarto, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Rosario Central: 61% possession, 14.4 shots a match, 9.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: 44% possession, 7.8 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Rosario Central's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Rosario Central are the model's most likely outcome at 69.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 16.7%. Confidence 24/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.87–0.52 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.65–0.42 1-0 21% 34% 28%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central to win 67.7% 64.8% 41.8% 1.55× 1.54
Draw 23.8% 24.5% 30.7% 0.80× 4.09
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to win 8.5% 8.2% 27.6% 0.30× 12.23
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central & not both score 52.9% 48.4% 27.7% 1.75× 2.07
Rosario Central & both teams score 14.8% 13.3% 14.3% 0.93× 7.54
Draw & not both score 13.1% 13.3% 14.8% 0.89× 7.54
Draw & both teams score 10.7% 13.3% 16.0% 0.83× 7.54
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto & not both score 6.2% 8.3% 17.1% 0.49× 12.01
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto & both teams score 2.3% 4.9% 10.6% 0.46× 20.55
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central & under 3.5 54.4% 48.9% 34.8% 1.41× 2.05
Rosario Central & over 1.5 47.2% 45.1% 27.8% 1.62× 2.22
Rosario Central & under 2.5 37.8% 34.9% 23.6% 1.48× 2.87
Rosario Central & over 2.5 29.9% 26.1% 18.4% 1.42× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 22.2% 21.6% 28.2% 0.77× 4.63
Draw & under 3.5 22.2% 21.6% 28.2% 0.77× 4.63
Rosario Central & under 1.5 20.6% 21.6% 14.1% 1.53× 4.63
Rosario Central & over 3.5 13.3% 12.8% 7.2% 1.79× 7.79
Draw & under 1.5 13.1% 12.8% 14.8% 0.87× 7.79
Draw & over 1.5 10.7% 12.8% 16.0% 0.80× 7.79
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto & under 3.5 7.9% 7.9% 23.5% 0.34× 12.63
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto & under 2.5 6.0% 7.9% 14.6% 0.54× 12.63
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto & under 1.5 4.9% 4.8% 10.3% 0.47× 20.81
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto & over 1.5 3.6% 4.8% 17.4% 0.28× 20.82
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto & over 2.5 2.5% 4.8% 13.1% 0.37× 20.83
Draw & over 2.5 1.6% 4.8% 2.6% 1.83× 20.83
Draw & over 3.5 1.6% 4.8% 2.6% 1.83× 20.83
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto & over 3.5 0.5% 4.8% 4.2% 1.14× 20.84
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central (1UP) 74.1% 75.3% — — 1.33
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (1UP) 18.5% 23.5% — — 4.25
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central (2UP) 67.7% 68.1% — — 1.47
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (2UP) 8.5% 8.5% — — 11.70
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central to win 2nd half 52.2% 51.9% — — 1.93
2nd half drawn 38.3% 36.5% — — 2.74
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to win 2nd half 9.5% 7.6% — — 13.21
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto under 1.5 in 2nd half 97.4% 94.2% — — 1.06
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto under 0.5 in 2nd half 78.0% 79.5% — — 1.26
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto over 0.5 in 2nd half 22.0% 20.5% — — 4.88
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto over 1.5 in 2nd half 2.6% 5.8% — — 17.36
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central under 1.5 in 2nd half 75.8% 75.2% — — 1.33
Rosario Central over 0.5 in 2nd half 60.9% 63.0% — — 1.59
Rosario Central under 0.5 in 2nd half 39.1% 37.0% — — 2.71
Rosario Central over 1.5 in 2nd half 24.2% 24.8% — — 4.03
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central (+0.5) 91.5% 92.1% 72.4% 1.27× 1.09
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (+2.5) 82.4% 82.6% 95.0% 0.87× 1.21
Rosario Central (-0.5) 67.7% 68.7% 41.8% 1.64× 1.46
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (+1.5) 60.9% 62.9% 82.3% 0.76× 1.59
Rosario Central (-1.5) 39.1% 37.1% 17.7% 2.10× 2.70
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (+0.5) 32.3% 31.3% 58.2% 0.54× 3.19
Rosario Central (-2.5) 17.6% 17.4% 5.0% 3.47× 5.74
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (-0.5) 8.5% 7.9% 27.6% 0.29× 12.69
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to concede 80.7% 81.4% 68.2% 1.19× 1.23
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto clean sheet 19.3% 18.6% 31.8% 0.58× 5.39
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to concede in 1st half 50.7% 50.8% — — 1.97
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto clean sheet in 1st half 49.3% 49.2% — — 2.03
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to concede in 2nd half 60.9% 61.6% — — 1.62
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto clean sheet in 2nd half 39.1% 38.4% — — 2.61
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto under 6.5 corners 91.8% 89.9% — — 1.11
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto under 5.5 corners 84.7% 81.4% — — 1.23
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto under 4.5 corners 73.3% 71.6% — — 1.40
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto over 2.5 corners 62.2% 61.7% — — 1.62
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto under 3.5 corners 57.2% 57.2% — — 1.75
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto over 3.5 corners 42.8% 42.8% — — 2.34
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto under 2.5 corners 37.8% 38.3% — — 2.61
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto over 4.5 corners 26.7% 28.4% — — 3.53
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto over 5.5 corners 15.3% 18.6% — — 5.38
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto over 6.5 corners 8.2% 10.1% — — 9.89
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto under 3.5 goals 99.9% 97.5% 98.9% 0.99× 1.03
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto under 2.5 goals 99.1% 97.5% 93.4% 1.04× 1.03
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto under 1.5 goals 93.4% 92.4% 78.2% 1.18× 1.08
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto under 0.5 goals 66.0% 68.0% 42.4% 1.60× 1.47
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto over 0.5 goals 34.0% 32.0% 57.6% 0.56× 3.13
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto over 1.5 goals 6.6% 7.6% 21.8% 0.35× 13.08
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto over 2.5 goals 0.9% 2.5% 6.6% 0.38× 39.92
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto over 3.5 goals 0.1% 2.5% 1.1% 2.19× 39.97
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto under 1.5 in 1st half 98.8% 96.4% — — 1.04
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto under 0.5 in 1st half 84.7% 82.8% — — 1.21
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto over 0.5 in 1st half 15.3% 17.2% — — 5.82
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto over 1.5 in 1st half 1.2% 3.6% — — 28.02
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto scores equally in both 68.8% 69.6% — — 1.44
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto scores more in 2nd half 19.0% 18.2% — — 5.51
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto scores more in 1st half 12.2% 10.6% — — 9.45
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central (away no bet) 74.0% 68.4% 57.7% 1.19× 1.46
Draw (away no bet) 26.0% 31.6% 42.3% 0.75× 3.17
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto even goals 71.8% 67.9% 58.4% 1.16× 1.47
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto odd goals 28.2% 32.1% 41.6% 0.77× 3.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 92.7% 91.7% — — 1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals 7.3% 8.3% — — 12.08
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 52.0% 50.7% — — 1.97
Not both halves under 1.5 48.0% 49.3% — — 2.03
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 48.8% 46.2% — — 2.16
Rosario Central to score 2+ in a row 45.6% 46.0% — — 2.17
Either team to score 3+ in a row 20.1% 19.5% — — 5.14
Rosario Central to score 3+ in a row 19.7% 16.2% — — 6.17
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to score 2+ in a row 4.3% 2.6% — — 38.34
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to score 3+ in a row 0.4% 2.5% — — 40.72
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central corners (+3.5) 96.4% 95.7% — — 1.04
Rosario Central corners (+2.5) 93.5% 89.6% — — 1.12
Rosario Central corners (+1.5) 89.0% 84.5% — — 1.18
Rosario Central corners (-1.5) 64.1% 61.9% — — 1.62
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto corners (+3.5) 57.6% 57.2% — — 1.75
Rosario Central corners (-2.5) 53.2% 52.4% — — 1.91
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto corners (+2.5) 46.8% 47.6% — — 2.10
Rosario Central corners (-3.5) 42.4% 42.8% — — 2.33
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto corners (+1.5) 35.9% 38.1% — — 2.62
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto corners (-1.5) 11.0% 15.5% — — 6.45
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto corners (-2.5) 6.5% 10.4% — — 9.60
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto corners (-3.5) 3.6% 4.3% — — 23.47
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 40.2% 38.3% — — 2.61
9-11 corners 30.1% 33.2% — — 3.01
12+ corners 29.8% 31.2% — — 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 77.9% 76.6% — — 1.31
Over 7.5 corners 70.4% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 70.2% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 10.5 corners 61.1% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 59.8% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 50.9% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 9.5 corners 49.1% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 8.5 corners 40.2% 42.1% — — 2.37
Over 10.5 corners 38.9% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 7.5 corners 29.6% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 11.5 corners 29.8% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 22.1% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 20.6% 20.1% 14.1% 1.42× 4.99
2-0 17.3% 13.8% 9.6% 1.44× 7.23
0-0 13.1% 11.5% 14.8% 0.77× 8.71
1-1 9.1% 7.4% 13.5% 0.55× 13.51
3-0 9.5% 7.4% 2.7% 2.71× 13.51
2-1 7.2% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.51
0-1 4.9% 1.7% 10.3% 0.17× 58.29
0-2 1.1% 1.7% 4.4% 0.39× 58.31
0-3 0.2% 1.7% 2.1% 0.84× 58.32
0-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.6% 3.01× 58.32
1-2 1.8% 1.7% 7.1% 0.24× 58.31
1-3 0.3% 1.7% 1.9% 0.88× 58.32
1-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.3% 5.01× 58.32
2-2 1.5% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.31
2-3 0.2% 1.7% 1.5% 1.16× 58.32
2-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 15.04× 58.32
3-1 3.9% 1.7% 3.1% 0.56× 58.30
3-2 0.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.07× 58.31
3-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 5.01× 58.32
3-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 15.04× 58.32
4-0 3.9% 1.7% 1.1% 1.50× 58.30
4-1 1.6% 1.7% 0.8% 2.15× 58.31
4-2 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 5.01× 58.32
4-3 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 7.52× 58.32
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 7.52× 58.32
Any other score 2.6% 1.7% 0.9% 1.88× 58.30
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central (2nd half DNB) 84.6% 82.9% — — 1.21
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (2nd half DNB) 15.4% 17.1% — — 5.84
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central leading at HT (DNB) 85.1% 87.2% — — 1.15
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto leading at HT (DNB) 14.9% 12.8% — — 7.84
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central or draw (1X) 91.5% 91.8% 72.4% 1.27× 1.09
Rosario Central or Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (12) 76.2% 75.5% 69.3% 1.09× 1.32
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto or draw (X2) 32.3% 35.2% 58.2% 0.61× 2.84
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central or draw at HT 92.1% 91.5% — — 1.09
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto or draw at HT 54.8% 48.7% — — 2.05
Rosario Central or Estudiantes de Río Cuarto at HT 53.1% 48.6% — — 2.06
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central or draw (1UP) 91.5% 93.5% — — 1.07
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto or draw (1UP) 32.3% 39.2% — — 2.55
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central or draw in 2nd half 90.5% 92.4% — — 1.08
Rosario Central or Estudiantes de Río Cuarto in 2nd half 61.7% 63.5% — — 1.57
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto or draw in 2nd half 47.8% 48.1% — — 2.08
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 66.8% 68.2% — — 1.47
Neither half drawn 33.2% 31.8% — — 3.14
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central (DNB) 88.9% 87.2% 60.3% 1.45× 1.15
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (DNB) 11.1% 12.8% 39.7% 0.32× 7.82
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central to score first 69.4% 69.4% — — 1.44
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to score first 17.5% 17.7% — — 5.65
No goal scored 13.1% 10.0% — — 9.97
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 72.2% 62.5% 59.4% 1.05× 1.60
Both teams to score 27.8% 37.5% 40.6% 0.92× 2.67
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 56.9% 47.4% 52.8% 0.90× 2.11
Both score & over 2.5 18.7% 21.5% 27.3% 0.79× 4.65
Not both score & over 2.5 15.3% 21.5% 6.7% 3.19× 4.66
Both score & under 2.5 9.1% 8.3% 13.5% 0.62× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 96.8% 91.6% 94.1% 0.97× 1.09
Both teams to score 2+ 3.2% 8.4% 5.9% 1.41× 11.95
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 86.4% 86.8% — — 1.15
Both teams to score in 2nd half 13.6% 13.2% — — 7.56
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 79.7% 77.7% — — 1.29
Both score 2nd half only 12.5% 10.7% — — 9.32
Both score 1st half only 6.8% 6.8% — — 14.77
Both score in both halves 1.0% 4.8% — — 20.98
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 92.2% 92.4% — — 1.08
Both teams to score by HT 7.8% 7.6% — — 13.09
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 59.3% 57.1% — — 1.75
A goal in each half 40.7% 42.9% — — 2.33
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.0% 47.2% 47.3% 1.00× 2.12
0-1 goals 38.6% 35.1% 39.0% 0.90× 2.85
4-6 goals 14.9% 17.0% 13.5% 1.26× 5.89
7+ goals 0.5% 1.8% 0.5% 4.02× 54.51
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to score exactly 0 66.0% 59.4% 42.4% 1.40× 1.68
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to score exactly 1 27.4% 27.5% 35.9% 0.76× 3.64
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to score exactly 2 5.7% 8.5% 15.3% 0.56× 11.72
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to score 3+ 0.9% 4.5% 6.6% 0.69× 22.02
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central to score exactly 1 31.7% 32.6% 36.5% 0.89× 3.07
Rosario Central to score exactly 2 26.1% 26.6% 21.8% 1.22× 3.77
Rosario Central to score 3+ 22.9% 23.3% 10.1% 2.30× 4.29
Rosario Central to score exactly 0 19.3% 18.8% 31.8% 0.59× 5.32
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 46.9% 51.4% — — 1.95
Rosario Central leading at HT 45.2% 51.3% — — 1.95
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto leading at HT 7.9% 8.5% — — 11.79
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central -1: 1 39.1% 37.4% — — 2.67
Rosario Central -1: 2 32.3% 30.1% — — 3.33
Rosario Central -1: X 28.6% 26.5% — — 3.77
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central (0:1) 39.1% 37.4% 17.7% 2.11× 2.68
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (0:1) 32.3% 30.1% 58.2% 0.52× 3.32
Draw (0:1) 28.6% 27.0% 24.3% 1.11× 3.70
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (0:2) 60.9% 67.0% 82.3% 0.81× 1.49
Draw (0:2) 21.5% 20.3% 12.8% 1.59× 4.94
Rosario Central (0:2) 17.6% 15.3% 5.0% 3.04× 6.55
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (0:3) 82.4% 85.4% 95.0% 0.90× 1.17
Draw (0:3) 11.2% 9.9% 3.4% 2.88× 10.14
Rosario Central (0:3) 6.4% 5.8% 1.7% 3.39× 17.26
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (0:4) 93.6% 94.6% 98.3% 0.96× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 4.5% 1.2% 1.3% 0.98× 81.47
Rosario Central (0:4) 1.9% 1.2% 0.6% 2.15× 81.75
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central (1:0) 91.5% 92.6% 72.4% 1.28× 1.08
Draw (1:0) 6.9% 6.9% 18.6% 0.37× 14.51
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (1:0) 1.6% 3.2% 9.1% 0.36× 30.88
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central (2:0) 98.4% 96.8% 90.9% 1.07× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 1.4% 2.3% 6.3% 0.36× 43.84
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (2:0) 0.2% 2.3% 3.0% 0.77× 43.91
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 42.9% 45.3% — — 2.21
Halves equal 30.4% 30.5% — — 3.28
1st half highest scoring 26.8% 26.2% — — 3.81
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central clean sheet 66.0% 66.7% 42.4% 1.57× 1.50
Rosario Central to concede 34.0% 33.3% 57.6% 0.58× 3.00
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central clean sheet in 1st half 84.7% 86.1% — — 1.16
Rosario Central to concede in 1st half 15.3% 13.9% — — 7.19
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central clean sheet in 2nd half 78.0% 83.2% — — 1.20
Rosario Central to concede in 2nd half 22.0% 16.9% — — 5.94
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central over 2.5 corners 90.8% 89.2% — — 1.12
Rosario Central over 3.5 corners 81.5% 81.0% — — 1.24
Rosario Central over 4.5 corners 69.6% 66.7% — — 1.50
Rosario Central over 5.5 corners 56.5% 57.5% — — 1.74
Rosario Central under 6.5 corners 56.4% 57.5% — — 1.74
Rosario Central over 6.5 corners 43.6% 42.5% — — 2.35
Rosario Central under 5.5 corners 43.5% 42.5% — — 2.35
Rosario Central under 4.5 corners 30.4% 33.3% — — 3.01
Rosario Central under 3.5 corners 18.5% 19.0% — — 5.26
Rosario Central under 2.5 corners 9.2% 10.8% — — 9.27
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central under 3.5 goals 91.5% 92.2% 97.1% 0.95× 1.09
Rosario Central over 0.5 goals 80.7% 82.2% 68.2% 1.21× 1.22
Rosario Central under 2.5 goals 77.1% 77.8% 89.9% 0.87× 1.29
Rosario Central under 1.5 goals 51.0% 53.2% 68.2% 0.78× 1.88
Rosario Central over 1.5 goals 49.0% 46.8% 31.8% 1.47× 2.14
Rosario Central over 2.5 goals 22.9% 22.2% 10.1% 2.19× 4.50
Rosario Central under 0.5 goals 19.3% 17.8% 31.8% 0.56× 5.61
Rosario Central over 3.5 goals 8.5% 7.8% 2.9% 2.74× 12.83
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central under 1.5 in 1st half 84.1% 84.3% — — 1.19
Rosario Central over 0.5 in 1st half 50.7% 50.6% — — 1.98
Rosario Central under 0.5 in 1st half 49.3% 49.4% — — 2.02
Rosario Central over 1.5 in 1st half 15.9% 15.7% — — 6.36
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central scores more in 2nd half 39.3% 38.2% — — 2.62
Rosario Central scores equally in both 34.4% 33.3% — — 3.01
Rosario Central scores more in 1st half 26.3% 27.8% — — 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 73.7% 67.0% 52.6% 1.27× 1.49
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (home no bet) 26.3% 33.0% 47.4% 0.70× 3.03
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central even goals 51.9% 50.8% 55.6% 0.91× 1.97
Rosario Central odd goals 48.1% 49.2% 44.4% 1.11× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 41.8% 39.2% — — 2.55
HT 1-0 29.5% 28.5% — — 3.51
HT 2-0 10.5% 11.0% — — 9.12
HT 0-1 6.9% 6.9% — — 14.55
HT 1-1 5.0% 2.4% — — 42.10
Any other HT score 3.6% 2.4% — — 42.19
HT 2-1 1.7% 2.4% — — 42.31
HT 0-2 0.6% 2.4% — — 42.38
HT 1-2 0.4% 2.4% — — 42.39
HT 2-2 0.1% 2.4% — — 42.41
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central at HT / Rosario Central at FT 42.0% 40.8% — — 2.45
Draw at HT / Rosario Central at FT 24.3% 21.7% — — 4.62
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 18.4% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / Estudiantes de Río Cuarto at FT 4.3% 3.5% — — 28.88
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto at HT / Estudiantes de Río Cuarto at FT 3.9% 3.5% — — 28.90
Rosario Central at HT / Draw at FT 2.9% 3.5% — — 28.93
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto at HT / Draw at FT 2.5% 3.5% — — 28.94
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto at HT / Rosario Central at FT 1.5% 3.5% — — 28.98
Rosario Central at HT / Estudiantes de Río Cuarto at FT 0.4% 3.4% — — 29.02
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central to score last 69.5% 70.6% — — 1.42
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to score last 17.4% 13.7% — — 7.31
No goal scored 13.1% 9.4% — — 10.60
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 86.9% 91.2% — — 1.10
Rosario Central to lead by 1 at any time 74.1% 74.2% — — 1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 44.9% 39.3% — — 2.55
Rosario Central to lead by 2 at any time 42.3% 39.2% — — 2.55
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 19.1% 14.9% — — 6.73
Rosario Central to lead by 3 at any time 18.8% 14.9% — — 6.73
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to lead by 1 at any time 18.5% 14.8% — — 6.74
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to lead by 2 at any time 2.7% 1.6% — — 62.64
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to lead by 3 at any time 0.3% 1.5% — — 65.02
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central most corners 74.2% 70.6% — — 1.42
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto most corners 17.4% 19.3% — — 5.19
Corners level 8.4% 8.3% — — 11.99
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.0% 87.4% 84.3% 1.04× 1.14
1-4 goals 81.1% 83.4% 79.9% 1.04× 1.20
1-3 goals 71.5% 72.3% 71.5% 1.01× 1.38
2-6 goals 60.9% 63.3% 60.7% 1.04× 1.58
2-5 goals 59.6% 59.1% 60.1% 0.98× 1.69
2-4 goals 55.6% 59.1% 55.8% 1.06× 1.69
1-2 goals 52.9% 53.2% 51.4% 1.03× 1.88
2-3 goals 46.0% 48.4% 47.3% 1.02× 2.06
3-6 goals 33.5% 35.2% 33.5% 1.05× 2.84
3-5 goals 32.1% 35.2% 33.0% 1.07× 2.84
3-4 goals 28.2% 30.2% 28.6% 1.06× 3.31
4-6 goals 14.9% 14.8% 13.5% 1.10× 6.75
4-5 goals 13.5% 14.8% 12.9% 1.15× 6.75
5-6 goals 5.3% 8.9% 5.0% 1.77× 11.28
7+ goals 0.5% 2.5% 0.5% 5.59× 39.25
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central never behind 68.4% 69.5% — — 1.44
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto never behind 12.8% 12.2% — — 8.23
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.4% 50.9% 48.9% 1.04× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.6% 49.1% 51.1% 0.96× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 58.8% 57.9% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 41.2% 42.1% — — 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 54.9% 52.1% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 45.1% 47.9% — — 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 98.1% 95.4% 99.0% 0.96× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 94.2% 92.3% 94.6% 0.98× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 86.9% 87.6% 85.2% 1.03× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 84.6% 82.3% 86.2% 0.95× 1.22
Under 2.5 goals 66.0% 66.3% 66.1% 1.00× 1.51
Over 1.5 goals 61.4% 61.7% 61.0% 1.01× 1.62
Under 1.5 goals 38.6% 38.3% 39.0% 0.98× 2.61
Over 2.5 goals 34.0% 33.7% 33.9% 0.99× 2.97
Over 3.5 goals 15.4% 17.7% 13.8% 1.28× 5.65
Under 0.5 goals 13.1% 12.4% 14.8% 0.84× 8.07
Over 4.5 goals 5.8% 7.7% 5.4% 1.44× 12.94
Over 5.5 goals 1.9% 4.6% 1.0% 4.46× 21.85
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.5% 97.2% 99.5% 0.98× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 98.0% 97.2% 98.9% 0.98× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 93.5% 92.4% 94.1% 0.98× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 81.1% 81.1% 82.7% 0.98× 1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 53.1% 51.9% 53.5% 0.97× 1.93
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 46.9% 48.1% 46.5% 1.04× 2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 18.9% 18.9% 17.3% 1.10× 5.29
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 6.5% 7.6% 5.9% 1.29× 13.20
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 2.0% 2.8% 1.1% 2.62× 35.64
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.5% 2.8% 0.5% 6.11× 35.68
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 94.1% 92.9% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 78.1% 78.1% — — 1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half 58.2% 64.7% — — 1.55
Under 0.5 in 1st half 41.8% 35.3% — — 2.84
Over 1.5 in 1st half 21.9% 21.9% — — 4.57
Over 2.5 in 1st half 5.9% 7.1% — — 14.13
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 88.2% 85.4% — — 1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 69.4% 68.6% — — 1.46
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 66.6% 68.4% — — 1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 33.4% 31.6% — — 3.17
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 30.6% 31.4% — — 3.19
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 11.8% 14.6% — — 6.86
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto not to score in both halves 96.6% 96.8% — — 1.03
Rosario Central not to score in both halves 69.1% 70.1% — — 1.43
Rosario Central to score in both halves 30.9% 29.9% — — 3.35
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to score in both halves 3.4% 3.2% — — 31.14
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Only Rosario Central scores 52.9% 53.8% 27.7% 1.94× 1.86
Both teams score 27.8% 26.1% 40.6% 0.64× 3.83
Neither team scores 13.1% 11.0% 14.8% 0.74× 9.06
Only Estudiantes de Río Cuarto scores 6.2% 7.1% 17.1% 0.42× 14.01
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 27.4% 24.9% 27.3% 0.91× 4.02
Exactly 1 goals 25.4% 24.9% 24.3% 1.02× 4.02
Exactly 3 goals 18.6% 17.5% 20.2% 0.87× 5.73
Exactly 0 goals 13.1% 12.1% 14.8% 0.82× 8.25
Exactly 4 goals 9.6% 7.6% 8.6% 0.89× 13.13
Exactly 5 goals 4.0% 4.5% 4.4% 1.01× 22.34
6 or more goals 1.9% 4.5% 1.0% 4.36× 22.37
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 41.8% 39.2% — — 2.55
1 goal in 1st half 36.3% 37.2% — — 2.69
2 goals in 1st half 16.0% 15.6% — — 6.40
3+ goals in 1st half 5.9% 7.1% — — 14.13
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 2nd half 35.9% 39.7% — — 2.52
2+ goals in 2nd half 33.4% 33.9% — — 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 30.6% 33.8% — — 2.96
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto not to win both halves 99.2% 97.3% — — 1.03
Rosario Central not to win both halves 76.3% 75.5% — — 1.33
Rosario Central to win both halves 23.7% 24.5% — — 4.08
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to win both halves 0.8% 2.7% — — 36.93
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to win neither half 83.4% 83.7% — — 1.19
Rosario Central to win either half 73.7% 73.1% — — 1.37
Rosario Central to win neither half 26.3% 26.9% — — 3.72
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to win either half 16.6% 16.3% — — 6.15
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto not to win to nil 93.8% 92.1% 82.9% 1.11× 1.09
Rosario Central to win to nil 52.9% 53.8% 27.7% 1.94× 1.86
Rosario Central not to win to nil 47.1% 46.2% 72.3% 0.64× 2.17
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to win to nil 6.2% 7.9% 17.1% 0.46× 12.68
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central by 1 28.6% 27.9% 24.3% 1.15× 3.59
Draw 23.8% 24.1% 30.7% 0.79× 4.15
Rosario Central by 2 21.5% 24.1% 12.8% 1.89× 4.15
Rosario Central by 3+ 17.6% 17.0% 5.0% 3.40× 5.87
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto by 1 6.9% 7.2% 18.6% 0.39× 13.91
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto by 2 1.4% 2.7% 6.3% 0.43× 36.93
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto by 3+ 0.2% 2.7% 3.0% 0.91× 36.97
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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