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Rosenborg BK v Molde — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 28 November 2026 · NOR-Eliteserien · 2627

NOR-Eliteserien results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Rosenborg BK win
38.5%
model 39.7%
Draw
23.2%
model 24.4%
Molde win
38.3%
model 35.9%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 10.8%
  2. 2-1 8.5%
  3. 1-2 8.1%
  4. 2-2 6.8%
  5. 1-0 5.9%

Goals

Over 2.563.1% Under 2.536.9%
BTTS yes65.1% BTTS no34.9%
Rosenborg BK 1+81.2% Rosenborg BK 2+49.8%
Molde 1+79.4% Molde 2+46.9%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.58. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Molde (+0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 51%
63.6% fair odds 1.57
moderate signal · 1134 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 2.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT
84.1% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 388 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Rosenborg BK have an estimated 38.5% win probability, against 38.3% for Molde and 23.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.67 for Rosenborg BK and 1.58 for Molde.

Why Rosenborg BK

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.2%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.67 to 1.58. Draws run at 20% in this competition.

Why Molde can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Rosenborg BK, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Molde, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Rosenborg BK: 50% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 13.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Molde: 61% possession, 19.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Rosenborg BK are the model's most likely outcome at 38.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.8%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.67–1.58 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.66–1.48 1-1 11% 61% 63%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK to win 41.6% 42.9% 49.0% 0.88× 2.33
Molde to win 33.6% 30.4% 31.3% 0.97× 3.29
Draw 24.8% 24.5% 19.9% 1.23× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK & both teams score 23.7% 21.8% 25.1% 0.87× 4.58
Draw & both teams score 19.9% 18.0% 15.0% 1.20× 5.56
Molde & both teams score 19.6% 18.0% 16.8% 1.07× 5.56
Rosenborg BK & not both score 17.9% 18.0% 24.1% 0.75× 5.56
Molde & not both score 14.0% 13.3% 14.8% 0.90× 7.53
Draw & not both score 5.0% 4.9% 5.2% 0.94× 20.55
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK & over 1.5 35.0% 34.9% 41.2% 0.85× 2.87
Rosenborg BK & over 2.5 29.0% 26.1% 34.7% 0.75× 3.84
Molde & over 1.5 27.8% 26.1% 26.4% 0.99× 3.84
Rosenborg BK & under 3.5 24.7% 21.6% 28.0% 0.77× 4.63
Molde & over 2.5 23.1% 21.6% 21.5% 1.01× 4.63
Molde & under 3.5 20.7% 21.6% 19.4% 1.11× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 19.9% 18.0% 15.0% 1.20× 5.56
Rosenborg BK & over 3.5 16.9% 18.0% 21.2% 0.85× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 16.2% 18.0% 14.5% 1.24× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 16.2% 18.0% 14.5% 1.24× 5.56
Rosenborg BK & under 2.5 12.6% 12.8% 14.5% 0.88× 7.79
Molde & over 3.5 12.9% 12.8% 12.2% 1.05× 7.79
Molde & under 2.5 10.5% 12.8% 10.1% 1.27× 7.79
Draw & over 2.5 8.6% 7.9% 5.7% 1.39× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 8.6% 7.9% 5.7% 1.39× 12.63
Rosenborg BK & under 1.5 6.6% 7.9% 8.0% 0.99× 12.63
Molde & under 1.5 5.8% 7.9% 5.2% 1.53× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 5.0% 4.8% 5.2% 0.93× 20.81
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK (1UP) 59.9% 58.2% — — 1.72
Molde (1UP) 53.2% 52.6% — — 1.90
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK (2UP) 41.6% 47.1% — — 2.13
Molde (2UP) 33.6% 30.6% — — 3.27
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK to win 2nd half 35.2% 35.9% — — 2.78
2nd half drawn 32.9% 34.3% — — 2.91
Molde to win 2nd half 31.9% 34.3% — — 2.91
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Molde under 1.5 in 2nd half 77.8% 79.0% — — 1.27
Molde over 0.5 in 2nd half 58.8% 54.6% — — 1.83
Molde under 0.5 in 2nd half 41.2% 45.4% — — 2.20
Molde over 1.5 in 2nd half 22.2% 21.0% — — 4.75
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK under 1.5 in 2nd half 75.5% 75.4% — — 1.33
Rosenborg BK over 0.5 in 2nd half 61.2% 63.2% — — 1.58
Rosenborg BK under 0.5 in 2nd half 38.8% 36.8% — — 2.72
Rosenborg BK over 1.5 in 2nd half 24.5% 24.6% — — 4.06
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Molde (+2.5) 90.9% 92.1% 85.5% 1.08× 1.09
Molde (+1.5) 78.3% 78.5% 72.0% 1.09× 1.27
Rosenborg BK (+0.5) 66.4% 68.7% 68.7% 1.00× 1.46
Molde (+0.5) 58.4% 57.0% 51.0% 1.12× 1.75
Rosenborg BK (-0.5) 41.6% 43.0% 49.0% 0.88× 2.33
Molde (-0.5) 33.6% 31.3% 31.3% 1.00× 3.19
Rosenborg BK (-1.5) 21.7% 21.5% 28.0% 0.77× 4.65
Rosenborg BK (-2.5) 9.1% 7.9% 14.5% 0.54× 12.67
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Molde to concede 81.0% 81.5% 80.3% 1.01× 1.23
Molde clean sheet 19.0% 18.5% 19.7% 0.94× 5.40
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Molde to concede in 1st half 51.1% 50.6% — — 1.98
Molde clean sheet in 1st half 48.9% 49.4% — — 2.03
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Molde to concede in 2nd half 61.2% 61.7% — — 1.62
Molde clean sheet in 2nd half 38.8% 38.3% — — 2.61
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Molde over 2.5 corners 82.0% 81.4% — — 1.23
Molde under 6.5 corners 71.7% 71.6% — — 1.40
Molde over 3.5 corners 68.4% 67.6% — — 1.48
Molde under 5.5 corners 60.0% 61.8% — — 1.62
Molde over 4.5 corners 53.7% 53.1% — — 1.89
Molde under 4.5 corners 46.3% 46.9% — — 2.13
Molde over 5.5 corners 40.0% 38.2% — — 2.62
Molde under 3.5 corners 31.6% 32.4% — — 3.09
Molde over 6.5 corners 28.3% 28.4% — — 3.52
Molde under 2.5 corners 18.0% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Molde under 3.5 goals 93.7% 92.3% 93.5% 0.99× 1.08
Molde under 2.5 goals 81.5% 81.5% 82.6% 0.99× 1.23
Molde over 0.5 goals 77.2% 76.3% 71.0% 1.07× 1.31
Molde under 1.5 goals 56.6% 59.4% 63.0% 0.94× 1.68
Molde over 1.5 goals 43.4% 40.6% 37.0% 1.10× 2.46
Molde under 0.5 goals 22.8% 23.7% 29.0% 0.82× 4.21
Molde over 2.5 goals 18.5% 18.5% 17.4% 1.07× 5.39
Molde over 3.5 goals 6.3% 7.7% 6.5% 1.18× 13.07
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Molde under 1.5 in 1st half 88.1% 89.2% — — 1.12
Molde under 0.5 in 1st half 55.4% 61.8% — — 1.62
Molde over 0.5 in 1st half 44.6% 38.2% — — 2.62
Molde over 1.5 in 1st half 11.9% 10.8% — — 9.26
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Molde scores more in 2nd half 40.4% 43.6% — — 2.29
Molde scores equally in both 36.4% 37.3% — — 2.68
Molde scores more in 1st half 23.1% 22.1% — — 4.52
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK (away no bet) 62.6% 61.9% 71.1% 0.87× 1.62
Draw (away no bet) 37.4% 38.1% 28.9% 1.32× 2.63
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Molde even goals 52.6% 52.6% 52.9% 1.00× 1.90
Molde odd goals 47.4% 47.4% 47.2% 1.01× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 79.5% 81.3% — — 1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals 20.5% 18.7% — — 5.35
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 72.0% 67.4% — — 1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals 28.0% 32.6% — — 3.07
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 62.8% 60.1% — — 1.67
Rosenborg BK to score 2+ in a row 39.2% 36.7% — — 2.73
Molde to score 2+ in a row 32.8% 29.2% — — 3.42
Either team to score 3+ in a row 24.1% 19.7% — — 5.09
Rosenborg BK to score 3+ in a row 14.2% 12.1% — — 8.27
Molde to score 3+ in a row 10.4% 12.0% — — 8.34
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK corners (+3.5) 83.8% 79.8% — — 1.25
Molde corners (+3.5) 77.1% 74.8% — — 1.34
Rosenborg BK corners (+2.5) 77.2% 74.8% — — 1.34
Molde corners (+2.5) 69.2% 65.9% — — 1.52
Rosenborg BK corners (+1.5) 69.0% 65.9% — — 1.52
Molde corners (+1.5) 60.1% 61.8% — — 1.62
Rosenborg BK corners (-1.5) 39.9% 38.2% — — 2.62
Rosenborg BK corners (-2.5) 30.8% 34.1% — — 2.93
Molde corners (-1.5) 31.0% 34.1% — — 2.93
Rosenborg BK corners (-3.5) 22.9% 25.2% — — 3.97
Molde corners (-2.5) 22.8% 25.2% — — 3.97
Molde corners (-3.5) 16.2% 20.2% — — 4.94
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 39.9% 34.0% — — 2.94
0-8 corners 31.6% 33.2% — — 3.01
9-11 corners 28.5% 31.2% — — 3.21
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 77.3% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 12.5 corners 68.5% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 68.4% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 11.5 corners 60.1% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 9.5 corners 58.8% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 10.5 corners 50.9% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 10.5 corners 49.1% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 9.5 corners 41.2% 42.1% — — 2.38
Over 11.5 corners 39.9% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 8.5 corners 31.6% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 12.5 corners 31.5% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 7.5 corners 22.7% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 2.00
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 11.3% 11.5% 9.6% 1.20× 8.72
2-1 8.8% 7.4% 9.8% 0.75× 13.51
1-0 6.6% 7.4% 8.0% 0.92× 13.51
1-2 7.9% 7.4% 6.2% 1.19× 13.51
2-2 6.5% 7.4% 4.4% 1.68× 13.51
0-1 5.8% 7.4% 5.2% 1.43× 13.51
2-0 6.0% 7.4% 6.7% 1.10× 13.51
0-0 5.0% 1.7% 5.2% 0.33× 58.29
3-1 4.9% 1.7% 6.2% 0.28× 58.29
0-2 4.7% 1.7% 5.2% 0.33× 58.29
0-3 2.3% 1.7% 3.6% 0.47× 58.31
0-4 0.9% 1.7% 0.5% 3.31× 58.31
1-3 3.9% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.30
1-4 1.4% 1.7% 2.1% 0.83× 58.31
2-3 3.2% 1.7% 3.6% 0.47× 58.30
2-4 1.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.32× 58.31
3-0 3.3% 1.7% 4.1% 0.41× 58.30
3-2 3.6% 1.7% 3.6% 0.47× 58.30
3-3 1.8% 1.7% 1.0% 1.66× 58.31
3-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.5% 3.31× 58.32
4-0 1.4% 1.7% 3.6% 0.47× 58.31
4-1 2.0% 1.7% 2.9% 0.60× 58.31
4-2 1.5% 1.7% 1.3% 1.32× 58.31
4-3 0.7% 1.7% 0.5% 3.31× 58.32
4-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.5% 3.31× 58.32
Any other score 4.4% 1.7% 7.3% 0.24× 58.29
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK (2nd half DNB) 52.5% 52.8% — — 1.89
Molde (2nd half DNB) 47.5% 47.2% — — 2.12
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK leading at HT (DNB) 56.4% 57.0% — — 1.75
Molde leading at HT (DNB) 43.6% 43.0% — — 2.33
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK or Molde (12) 75.2% 75.5% 80.1% 0.94× 1.32
Rosenborg BK or draw (1X) 66.4% 69.6% 68.7% 1.01× 1.44
Molde or draw (X2) 58.4% 57.1% 51.0% 1.12× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK or draw at HT 73.8% 75.0% — — 1.33
Molde or draw at HT 66.2% 67.1% — — 1.49
Rosenborg BK or Molde at HT 60.0% 57.2% — — 1.75
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK or draw (1UP) 66.4% 76.2% — — 1.31
Molde or draw (1UP) 58.4% 63.1% — — 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK or draw in 2nd half 68.1% 65.7% — — 1.52
Rosenborg BK or Molde in 2nd half 67.1% 65.7% — — 1.52
Molde or draw in 2nd half 64.8% 64.1% — — 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 59.1% 58.5% — — 1.71
Neither half drawn 40.9% 41.5% — — 2.41
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK (DNB) 55.3% 58.0% 61.0% 0.95× 1.72
Molde (DNB) 44.7% 42.0% 39.0% 1.08× 2.38
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK to score first 50.3% 53.2% — — 1.88
Molde to score first 44.7% 41.8% — — 2.39
No goal scored 5.0% 4.3% — — 23.16
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 63.2% 56.7% 56.5% 1.00× 1.77
Not both teams to score 36.8% 43.3% 43.5% 1.00× 2.31
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 51.9% 47.2% 47.2% 1.00× 2.12
Not both score & under 2.5 28.0% 33.3% 29.3% 1.14× 3.00
Both score & under 2.5 11.3% 12.4% 9.6% 1.29× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 8.8% 8.3% 14.5% 0.57× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 78.5% 79.7% 83.4% 0.96× 1.26
Both teams to score 2+ 21.5% 20.3% 16.6% 1.23× 4.92
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 63.8% 65.6% — — 1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half 36.2% 34.4% — — 2.91
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 49.1% 53.0% — — 1.89
Both score 2nd half only 28.0% 27.2% — — 3.68
Both score 1st half only 14.7% 10.8% — — 9.28
Both score in both halves 8.2% 6.8% — — 14.65
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 77.1% 81.0% — — 1.24
Both teams to score by HT 22.9% 19.0% — — 5.26
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 61.6% 59.6% — — 1.68
A half without a goal 38.4% 40.4% — — 2.48
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 44.3% 42.1% 43.8% 0.96× 2.37
4-6 goals 34.3% 30.7% 35.5% 0.87× 3.25
0-1 goals 17.3% 20.2% 17.9% 1.13× 4.94
7+ goals 4.1% 1.8% 3.4% 0.55× 54.09
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Molde to score exactly 1 33.7% 33.8% 34.2% 0.99× 2.96
Molde to score exactly 2 24.9% 22.3% 19.9% 1.12× 4.48
Molde to score exactly 0 22.8% 22.3% 29.0% 0.77× 4.48
Molde to score 3+ 18.5% 19.6% 17.4% 1.13× 5.11
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK to score exactly 1 31.5% 32.5% 28.2% 1.15× 3.07
Rosenborg BK to score exactly 2 26.2% 26.5% 25.9% 1.02× 3.77
Rosenborg BK to score 3+ 23.3% 23.3% 26.7% 0.87× 4.29
Rosenborg BK to score exactly 0 19.0% 18.8% 19.7% 0.95× 5.33
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 40.0% 42.8% — — 2.34
Rosenborg BK leading at HT 33.8% 32.9% — — 3.04
Molde leading at HT 26.2% 25.0% — — 3.99
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK -1: 2 58.4% 56.8% — — 1.76
Rosenborg BK -1: 1 21.7% 23.5% — — 4.26
Rosenborg BK -1: X 19.9% 17.5% — — 5.70
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Molde (0:1) 58.4% 55.8% 51.0% 1.09× 1.79
Rosenborg BK (0:1) 21.7% 24.2% 28.0% 0.87× 4.13
Draw (0:1) 19.9% 17.8% 21.2% 0.84× 5.61
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Molde (0:2) 78.3% 79.4% 72.0% 1.10× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 12.7% 11.0% 13.7% 0.80× 9.10
Rosenborg BK (0:2) 9.1% 7.7% 14.5% 0.53× 13.03
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Molde (0:3) 90.9% 92.7% 85.5% 1.08× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.9% 5.8% 7.0% 0.83× 17.23
Rosenborg BK (0:3) 3.1% 2.4% 7.8% 0.31× 42.07
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Molde (0:4) 96.9% 98.1% 92.2% 1.06× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.2% 1.2% 4.7% 0.26× 81.86
Rosenborg BK (0:4) 0.9% 1.2% 3.4% 0.36× 82.00
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK (1:0) 66.4% 70.1% 68.7% 1.02× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 17.6% 17.1% 14.8% 1.16× 5.85
Molde (1:0) 16.0% 17.1% 16.8% 1.01× 5.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK (2:0) 84.0% 84.6% 83.2% 1.02× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 10.0% 6.4% 9.1% 0.70× 15.66
Molde (2:0) 6.0% 6.4% 8.0% 0.79× 15.70
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.3% 48.8% — — 2.05
1st half highest scoring 26.9% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 23.8% 24.5% — — 4.09
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK to concede 77.2% 76.1% 71.0% 1.07× 1.32
Rosenborg BK clean sheet 22.8% 23.9% 29.0% 0.82× 4.18
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK clean sheet in 1st half 55.4% 61.8% — — 1.62
Rosenborg BK to concede in 1st half 44.6% 38.2% — — 2.62
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK to concede in 2nd half 58.8% 55.0% — — 1.82
Rosenborg BK clean sheet in 2nd half 41.2% 45.0% — — 2.22
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK over 2.5 corners 85.6% 86.2% — — 1.16
Rosenborg BK over 3.5 corners 73.8% 71.9% — — 1.39
Rosenborg BK under 6.5 corners 65.3% 66.7% — — 1.50
Rosenborg BK over 4.5 corners 60.3% 62.2% — — 1.61
Rosenborg BK under 5.5 corners 53.2% 52.6% — — 1.90
Rosenborg BK over 5.5 corners 46.8% 47.4% — — 2.11
Rosenborg BK under 4.5 corners 39.7% 37.8% — — 2.65
Rosenborg BK over 6.5 corners 34.7% 33.3% — — 3.01
Rosenborg BK under 3.5 corners 26.2% 28.1% — — 3.55
Rosenborg BK under 2.5 corners 14.4% 13.8% — — 7.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK under 3.5 goals 91.2% 92.2% 87.6% 1.05× 1.08
Rosenborg BK over 0.5 goals 81.0% 82.2% 80.3% 1.02× 1.22
Rosenborg BK under 2.5 goals 76.7% 77.7% 73.3% 1.06× 1.29
Rosenborg BK under 1.5 goals 50.5% 53.2% 47.7% 1.12× 1.88
Rosenborg BK over 1.5 goals 49.5% 46.8% 52.3% 0.89× 2.14
Rosenborg BK over 2.5 goals 23.3% 22.3% 26.7% 0.83× 4.49
Rosenborg BK under 0.5 goals 19.0% 17.8% 19.7% 0.90× 5.62
Rosenborg BK over 3.5 goals 8.8% 7.8% 12.4% 0.62× 12.87
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK under 1.5 in 1st half 83.9% 84.0% — — 1.19
Rosenborg BK over 0.5 in 1st half 51.1% 50.4% — — 1.98
Rosenborg BK under 0.5 in 1st half 48.9% 49.6% — — 2.02
Rosenborg BK over 1.5 in 1st half 16.1% 16.0% — — 6.26
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK scores more in 2nd half 39.5% 37.8% — — 2.65
Rosenborg BK scores equally in both 34.2% 33.2% — — 3.01
Rosenborg BK scores more in 1st half 26.4% 27.7% — — 3.61
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Molde (home no bet) 57.5% 56.4% 61.1% 0.92× 1.77
Draw (home no bet) 42.5% 43.6% 38.9% 1.12× 2.30
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK even goals 51.8% 50.7% 53.9% 0.94× 1.97
Rosenborg BK odd goals 48.2% 49.3% 46.1% 1.07× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 27.2% 28.2% — — 3.54
HT 1-0 19.3% 18.7% — — 5.36
HT 0-1 15.9% 18.6% — — 5.38
HT 1-1 11.6% 11.0% — — 9.12
HT 2-0 6.9% 6.9% — — 14.48
Any other HT score 5.7% 6.9% — — 14.50
HT 0-2 4.7% 2.4% — — 41.99
HT 2-1 4.1% 2.4% — — 42.03
HT 1-2 3.4% 2.4% — — 42.08
HT 2-2 1.2% 2.4% — — 42.22
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK at HT / Rosenborg BK at FT 25.1% 27.3% — — 3.67
Molde at HT / Molde at FT 18.3% 16.8% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 13.9% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / Rosenborg BK at FT 13.7% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / Molde at FT 12.4% 12.7% — — 7.90
Rosenborg BK at HT / Draw at FT 5.9% 6.0% — — 16.65
Molde at HT / Draw at FT 5.1% 6.0% — — 16.68
Rosenborg BK at HT / Molde at FT 2.9% 3.5% — — 28.68
Molde at HT / Rosenborg BK at FT 2.7% 3.5% — — 28.69
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK to score last 50.4% 52.0% — — 1.92
Molde to score last 44.7% 40.1% — — 2.49
No goal scored 5.0% 4.3% — — 23.16
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.0% 95.6% — — 1.05
Rosenborg BK to lead by 1 at any time 59.9% 55.0% — — 1.82
Molde to lead by 1 at any time 53.2% 50.9% — — 1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 52.1% 50.8% — — 1.97
Rosenborg BK to lead by 2 at any time 29.3% 25.6% — — 3.91
Molde to lead by 2 at any time 23.2% 19.7% — — 5.09
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 19.9% 15.0% — — 6.68
Rosenborg BK to lead by 3 at any time 11.7% 10.4% — — 9.58
Molde to lead by 3 at any time 8.2% 6.7% — — 14.88
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK most corners 49.8% 47.0% — — 2.13
Molde most corners 40.3% 43.5% — — 2.30
Corners level 9.9% 8.4% — — 11.96
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.2% 87.4% 87.0% 1.00× 1.14
2-6 goals 78.6% 78.7% 79.0% 1.00× 1.27
1-4 goals 74.2% 72.4% 73.1% 0.99× 1.38
2-5 goals 72.9% 72.4% 74.4% 0.97× 1.38
2-4 goals 61.8% 63.3% 60.4% 1.05× 1.58
1-3 goals 56.6% 59.1% 56.5% 1.05× 1.69
3-6 goals 56.6% 59.1% 58.3% 1.01× 1.69
3-5 goals 50.9% 53.2% 53.6% 0.99× 1.88
2-3 goals 44.3% 43.6% 43.8% 1.00× 2.29
3-4 goals 39.9% 39.2% 39.6% 0.99× 2.55
1-2 goals 34.3% 35.2% 33.7% 1.05× 2.84
4-6 goals 34.3% 35.2% 35.5% 0.99× 2.84
4-5 goals 28.5% 30.2% 30.8% 0.98× 3.31
5-6 goals 16.8% 18.8% 18.9% 1.00× 5.31
7+ goals 4.1% 2.6% 3.4% 0.76× 39.04
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK never behind 41.9% 48.5% — — 2.06
Molde never behind 35.1% 43.9% — — 2.28
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.6% 50.9% 51.6% 0.99× 1.96
Even number of goals 51.4% 49.1% 48.4% 1.01× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.9% 51.6% — — 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 46.1% 48.4% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.7% 51.9% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.3% 48.1% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.0% 95.4% 94.8% 1.01× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 90.1% 92.3% 92.0% 1.00× 1.08
Over 1.5 goals 82.7% 82.3% 82.1% 1.00× 1.22
Under 4.5 goals 79.1% 77.3% 78.0% 0.99× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 61.6% 61.7% 61.4% 1.01× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 60.7% 61.7% 61.4% 1.01× 1.62
Under 2.5 goals 39.3% 38.3% 38.6% 0.99× 2.61
Over 3.5 goals 38.4% 38.3% 38.6% 0.99× 2.61
Over 4.5 goals 20.9% 22.7% 22.0% 1.03× 4.41
Under 1.5 goals 17.3% 17.7% 17.9% 0.99× 5.65
Over 5.5 goals 9.9% 7.7% 8.0% 0.96× 12.93
Under 0.5 goals 5.0% 4.6% 5.2% 0.88× 21.84
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 95.7% 97.2% 96.5% 1.01× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 88.9% 86.7% 90.7% 0.96× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 77.8% 75.9% 77.5% 0.98× 1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 74.7% 72.4% 73.6% 0.98× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 50.6% 51.9% 50.0% 1.04× 1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 49.4% 48.1% 50.0% 0.96× 2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 25.3% 27.6% 26.4% 1.05× 3.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 22.2% 24.1% 22.5% 1.07× 4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 11.1% 13.3% 9.3% 1.42× 7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 4.3% 2.8% 3.5% 0.80× 35.53
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 85.6% 89.1% — — 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 72.8% 71.6% — — 1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half 62.4% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half 37.6% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half 27.2% 28.4% — — 3.52
Over 2.5 in 1st half 14.4% 10.9% — — 9.18
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 83.8% 83.3% — — 1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 72.2% 77.6% — — 1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 54.9% 53.1% — — 1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 45.1% 46.9% — — 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 27.8% 22.4% — — 4.46
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 16.2% 16.7% — — 5.98
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Molde not to score in both halves 73.8% 73.9% — — 1.35
Rosenborg BK not to score in both halves 68.7% 70.0% — — 1.43
Rosenborg BK to score in both halves 31.3% 30.0% — — 3.33
Molde to score in both halves 26.2% 26.1% — — 3.84
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 63.2% 60.3% 56.5% 1.07× 1.66
Only Rosenborg BK scores 17.9% 16.0% 24.1% 0.67× 6.24
Only Molde scores 14.0% 11.0% 14.8% 0.75× 9.06
Neither team scores 5.0% 4.6% 5.2% 0.89× 21.65
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 22.0% 22.6% 21.0% 1.08× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 22.3% 22.6% 23.1% 0.98× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 17.5% 17.5% 16.8% 1.04× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 12.3% 12.1% 13.0% 0.94× 8.25
Exactly 5 goals 11.0% 12.1% 14.2% 0.85× 8.25
6 or more goals 9.9% 7.6% 8.0% 0.95× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 5.0% 4.5% 5.2% 0.86× 22.36
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 35.2% 37.3% — — 2.68
No goals in 1st half 27.2% 28.5% — — 3.51
2 goals in 1st half 23.2% 21.5% — — 4.66
3+ goals in 1st half 14.4% 10.8% — — 9.26
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 54.9% 51.3% — — 1.95
1 goal in 2nd half 28.9% 29.2% — — 3.42
No goals in 2nd half 16.2% 16.4% — — 6.10
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Molde not to win both halves 91.6% 94.1% — — 1.06
Rosenborg BK not to win both halves 88.0% 88.0% — — 1.14
Rosenborg BK to win both halves 12.0% 12.0% — — 8.32
Molde to win both halves 8.4% 5.9% — — 16.91
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK to win either half 57.0% 59.1% — — 1.69
Molde to win neither half 50.4% 54.2% — — 1.85
Molde to win either half 49.6% 45.8% — — 2.18
Rosenborg BK to win neither half 43.0% 40.9% — — 2.45
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Molde not to win to nil 86.0% 88.1% 85.2% 1.03× 1.14
Rosenborg BK not to win to nil 82.1% 83.1% 75.9% 1.09× 1.20
Rosenborg BK to win to nil 17.9% 16.9% 24.1% 0.70× 5.92
Molde to win to nil 14.0% 11.9% 14.8% 0.81× 8.40
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 24.8% 24.1% 19.9% 1.21× 4.15
Rosenborg BK by 1 19.9% 17.1% 21.2% 0.80× 5.86
Molde by 1 17.6% 17.0% 14.8% 1.15× 5.87
Rosenborg BK by 2 12.7% 11.8% 13.7% 0.86× 8.51
Molde by 2 10.0% 7.2% 9.1% 0.79× 13.90
Rosenborg BK by 3+ 9.1% 7.2% 14.5% 0.50× 13.90
Molde by 3+ 6.0% 7.2% 8.0% 0.89× 13.91
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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