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Rosenborg BK v Tromso — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · NOR-Eliteserien · 2627

NOR-Eliteserien results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Rosenborg BK win
36.5%
model 38.6%
Draw
27.1%
model 25.9%
Tromso win
36.3%
model 35.5%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (567 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.1%
  2. 2-1 8.6%
  3. 1-2 8.2%
  4. 1-0 7.3%
  5. 0-1 6.9%

Goals

Over 2.556.3% Under 2.543.7%
BTTS yes60.0% BTTS no40.0%
Rosenborg BK 1+77.8% Rosenborg BK 2+44.4%
Tromso 1+76.2% Tromso 2+42.0%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.44. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
80/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Tromso (+0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 51%
62.8% fair odds 1.59
strong signal · 11565 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Rosenborg BK (2:0)
Handicap 2:0 · usually 83%
83.6% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 4395 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Rosenborg BK have an estimated 36.5% win probability, against 36.3% for Tromso and 27.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.51 for Rosenborg BK and 1.44 for Tromso.

Why Rosenborg BK

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.1%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.51 to 1.44. Draws run at 20% in this competition.

Why Tromso can win

Tromso carry the stronger rating, 1630 Elo against 1544. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Rosenborg BK, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Tromso, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Rosenborg BK: 50% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 13.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Tromso: 49% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Rosenborg BK are the model's most likely outcome at 36.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.1%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.51–1.44 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.40–1.31 1-1 13% 51% 56%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK to win 38.6% 37.5% 49.0% 0.77× 2.67
Tromso to win 35.5% 37.5% 31.3% 1.20× 2.67
Draw 25.9% 27.3% 19.9% 1.37× 3.66
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK & both teams score 20.8% 21.5% 25.1% 0.86× 4.65
Draw & both teams score 20.0% 18.2% 15.0% 1.21× 5.49
Tromso & both teams score 19.3% 18.2% 16.8% 1.08× 5.49
Rosenborg BK & not both score 17.8% 18.2% 24.1% 0.76× 5.49
Tromso & not both score 16.2% 18.2% 14.8% 1.23× 5.49
Draw & not both score 6.0% 7.7% 5.2% 1.48× 13.05
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK & over 1.5 31.3% 31.8% 41.2% 0.77× 3.15
Tromso & over 1.5 28.6% 26.5% 26.4% 1.00× 3.78
Rosenborg BK & over 2.5 25.3% 26.5% 34.7% 0.76× 3.78
Rosenborg BK & under 3.5 24.9% 21.8% 28.0% 0.78× 4.59
Tromso & over 2.5 23.1% 21.8% 21.5% 1.01× 4.59
Tromso & under 3.5 23.1% 21.8% 19.4% 1.12× 4.59
Draw & over 1.5 20.0% 17.7% 15.0% 1.18× 5.66
Draw & under 2.5 18.0% 17.7% 14.5% 1.22× 5.66
Draw & under 3.5 18.0% 17.7% 14.5% 1.22× 5.66
Rosenborg BK & over 3.5 13.7% 12.5% 21.2% 0.59× 8.03
Rosenborg BK & under 2.5 13.3% 12.5% 14.5% 0.86× 8.03
Tromso & under 2.5 12.3% 12.5% 10.1% 1.23× 8.03
Tromso & over 3.5 12.3% 12.5% 12.2% 1.02× 8.03
Rosenborg BK & under 1.5 7.3% 7.6% 8.0% 0.95× 13.17
Draw & under 1.5 6.0% 7.6% 5.2% 1.47× 13.17
Draw & over 2.5 7.9% 7.6% 5.7% 1.33× 13.17
Draw & over 3.5 7.9% 7.6% 5.7% 1.33× 13.17
Tromso & under 1.5 6.9% 7.6% 5.2% 1.47× 13.17
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK (1UP) 56.6% 57.8% 1.73
Tromso (1UP) 53.9% 53.3% 1.88
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK (2UP) 38.6% 37.6% 2.66
Tromso (2UP) 35.5% 37.5% 2.67
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 34.3% 32.4% 3.08
Tromso to win 2nd half 32.9% 32.4% 3.09
Rosenborg BK to win 2nd half 32.8% 32.4% 3.09
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso (+2.5) 92.6% 92.3% 85.5% 1.08× 1.08
Tromso (+1.5) 81.0% 83.1% 72.0% 1.15× 1.20
Rosenborg BK (+0.5) 64.5% 62.8% 68.7% 0.91× 1.59
Tromso (+0.5) 61.4% 62.8% 51.0% 1.23× 1.59
Rosenborg BK (-0.5) 38.6% 37.2% 49.0% 0.76× 2.69
Tromso (-0.5) 35.5% 37.2% 31.3% 1.19× 2.69
Rosenborg BK (-1.5) 19.0% 16.9% 28.0% 0.60× 5.92
Rosenborg BK (-2.5) 7.4% 7.7% 14.5% 0.53× 12.96
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso to concede 77.8% 78.6% 80.3% 0.98× 1.27
Tromso clean sheet 22.2% 21.4% 19.7% 1.09× 4.67
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso clean sheet in 1st half 52.3% 53.2% 1.88
Tromso to concede in 1st half 47.7% 46.8% 2.14
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso under 6.5 corners 79.6% 75.9% 1.32
Tromso over 2.5 corners 76.1% 75.9% 1.32
Tromso under 5.5 corners 69.0% 67.5% 1.48
Tromso over 3.5 corners 60.2% 61.8% 1.62
Tromso under 4.5 corners 55.4% 57.1% 1.75
Tromso over 4.5 corners 44.6% 42.9% 2.33
Tromso under 3.5 corners 39.8% 38.2% 2.62
Tromso over 5.5 corners 31.0% 32.5% 3.08
Tromso under 2.5 corners 23.9% 24.1% 4.16
Tromso over 6.5 corners 20.4% 24.1% 4.16
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso under 3.5 goals 94.2% 92.1% 93.5% 0.98× 1.09
Tromso under 2.5 goals 82.5% 82.4% 82.6% 1.00× 1.21
Tromso over 0.5 goals 76.2% 76.4% 71.0% 1.08× 1.31
Tromso under 1.5 goals 58.0% 58.4% 63.0% 0.93× 1.71
Tromso over 1.5 goals 42.0% 41.6% 37.0% 1.12× 2.41
Tromso under 0.5 goals 23.8% 23.6% 29.0% 0.81× 4.24
Tromso over 2.5 goals 17.5% 17.6% 17.4% 1.01× 5.69
Tromso over 3.5 goals 5.8% 7.9% 6.5% 1.22× 12.62
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso under 1.5 in 1st half 88.7% 87.0% 1.15
Tromso under 0.5 in 1st half 56.3% 57.1% 1.75
Tromso over 0.5 in 1st half 43.7% 42.9% 2.33
Tromso over 1.5 in 1st half 11.3% 13.0% 7.71
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK (away no bet) 59.8% 58.5% 71.1% 0.82× 1.71
Draw (away no bet) 40.2% 41.5% 28.9% 1.43× 2.41
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso even goals 52.8% 53.5% 52.9% 1.01× 1.87
Tromso odd goals 47.2% 46.5% 47.2% 0.99× 2.15
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 82.3% 82.6% 1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals 17.7% 17.4% 5.74
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 68.4% 66.6% 1.50
Both halves under 1.5 goals 31.6% 33.4% 3.00
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 59.3% 58.2% 1.72
Rosenborg BK to score 2+ in a row 34.8% 32.4% 3.09
Tromso to score 2+ in a row 32.4% 32.3% 3.09
Either team to score 3+ in a row 21.6% 21.2% 4.72
Rosenborg BK to score 3+ in a row 11.7% 12.8% 7.84
Tromso to score 3+ in a row 10.3% 12.7% 7.86
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK corners (+3.5) 88.0% 84.5% 1.18
Rosenborg BK corners (+2.5) 82.0% 79.7% 1.25
Tromso corners (+3.5) 74.3% 70.7% 1.41
Rosenborg BK corners (+1.5) 74.4% 70.7% 1.41
Tromso corners (+2.5) 65.5% 65.7% 1.52
Tromso corners (+1.5) 55.5% 57.1% 1.75
Rosenborg BK corners (-1.5) 44.5% 42.9% 2.33
Rosenborg BK corners (-2.5) 34.5% 34.3% 2.92
Rosenborg BK corners (-3.5) 25.7% 29.3% 3.42
Tromso corners (-1.5) 25.6% 29.3% 3.42
Tromso corners (-2.5) 18.0% 20.3% 4.93
Tromso corners (-3.5) 12.0% 15.5% 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 38.2% 33.7% 2.97
12+ corners 32.8% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 29.0% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 74.9% 72.6% 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 71.7% 72.6% 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 67.2% 67.7% 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 61.8% 63.4% 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 58.2% 57.8% 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 51.6% 53.3% 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 48.4% 46.7% 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 41.8% 42.2% 2.37
Under 8.5 corners 38.2% 36.6% 2.73
Over 11.5 corners 32.8% 32.3% 3.10
Under 7.5 corners 28.3% 27.4% 3.66
Over 12.5 corners 25.1% 27.4% 3.66
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.1% 11.2% 9.6% 1.17× 8.90
0-0 6.0% 7.4% 5.2% 1.43× 13.49
0-1 6.9% 7.4% 5.2% 1.43× 13.49
0-2 5.4% 7.4% 5.2% 1.43× 13.49
1-0 7.3% 7.4% 8.0% 0.92× 13.48
1-2 8.2% 7.4% 6.2% 1.19× 13.48
2-0 6.0% 7.4% 6.7% 1.10× 13.49
2-1 8.6% 7.4% 9.8% 0.75× 13.48
2-2 6.2% 7.4% 4.4% 1.68× 13.49
0-3 2.6% 1.7% 3.6% 0.47× 58.10
0-4 0.9% 1.7% 0.5% 3.32× 58.11
1-3 3.9% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.10
1-4 1.4% 1.7% 2.1% 0.83× 58.11
2-3 3.0% 1.7% 3.6% 0.47× 58.10
2-4 1.1% 1.7% 1.3% 1.33× 58.11
3-0 3.0% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.10
3-1 4.3% 1.7% 6.2% 0.28× 58.10
3-2 3.1% 1.7% 3.6% 0.47× 58.10
3-3 1.5% 1.7% 1.0% 1.66× 58.11
3-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.5% 3.32× 58.11
4-0 1.1% 1.7% 3.6% 0.47× 58.11
4-1 1.6% 1.7% 2.9% 0.60× 58.11
4-2 1.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.33× 58.11
4-3 0.6% 1.7% 0.5% 3.32× 58.11
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.5% 3.32× 58.11
Any other score 3.4% 1.7% 7.3% 0.24× 58.10
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK leading at HT (DNB) 54.0% 56.0% 1.79
Tromso leading at HT (DNB) 46.0% 44.0% 2.27
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK or Tromso (12) 74.1% 72.7% 80.1% 0.91× 1.38
Rosenborg BK or draw (1X) 64.5% 62.5% 68.7% 0.91× 1.60
Tromso or draw (X2) 61.4% 62.5% 51.0% 1.22× 1.60
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK or draw at HT 73.2% 71.2% 1.40
Tromso or draw at HT 68.5% 67.8% 1.48
Rosenborg BK or Tromso at HT 58.3% 57.3% 1.75
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK or draw (1UP) 64.5% 69.9% 1.43
Tromso or draw (1UP) 61.4% 69.7% 1.44
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso or draw in 2nd half 67.2% 67.6% 1.48
Rosenborg BK or draw in 2nd half 67.1% 67.6% 1.48
Rosenborg BK or Tromso in 2nd half 65.7% 67.6% 1.48
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 61.0% 60.1% 1.66
Neither half drawn 39.0% 39.9% 2.51
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK (DNB) 52.1% 51.5% 61.0% 0.84× 1.94
Tromso (DNB) 47.9% 48.5% 39.0% 1.24× 2.06
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK to score first 48.1% 46.1% 2.17
Tromso to score first 45.9% 46.0% 2.17
No goal scored 6.0% 6.3% 15.95
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 60.0% 55.7% 56.5% 0.99× 1.80
Not both teams to score 40.0% 44.3% 43.5% 1.02× 2.26
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 47.9% 45.2% 47.2% 0.96× 2.21
Not both score & under 2.5 31.6% 34.0% 29.3% 1.16× 2.94
Both score & under 2.5 12.1% 11.9% 9.6% 1.24× 8.41
Not both score & over 2.5 8.5% 8.5% 14.5% 0.58× 11.81
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 81.3% 83.1% 83.4% 1.00× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 18.7% 16.9% 16.6% 1.02× 5.91
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 66.5% 68.0% 1.47
Both teams to score in 2nd half 33.5% 32.0% 3.13
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 52.5% 54.2% 1.85
Both score 2nd half only 26.6% 25.9% 3.86
Both score 1st half only 14.0% 11.9% 8.38
Both score in both halves 6.9% 7.1% 14.06
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 79.1% 79.6% 1.26
Both teams to score by HT 20.9% 20.4% 4.90
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 58.2% 57.6% 1.74
A half without a goal 41.8% 42.4% 2.36
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 45.9% 46.6% 43.8% 1.06× 2.15
4-6 goals 30.9% 30.8% 35.5% 0.87× 3.24
0-1 goals 20.1% 23.3% 17.9% 1.30× 4.29
7+ goals 3.1% 2.0% 3.4% 0.59× 50.21
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso to score exactly 1 34.2% 32.5% 34.2% 0.95× 3.08
Tromso to score exactly 2 24.5% 23.1% 19.9% 1.16× 4.32
Tromso to score exactly 0 23.8% 23.1% 29.0% 0.80× 4.32
Tromso to score 3+ 17.5% 18.4% 17.4% 1.06× 5.43
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK to score exactly 1 33.4% 32.1% 28.2% 1.14× 3.11
Rosenborg BK to score exactly 2 25.2% 26.4% 25.9% 1.02× 3.79
Rosenborg BK to score exactly 0 22.2% 22.9% 19.7% 1.16× 4.37
Rosenborg BK to score 3+ 19.3% 18.3% 26.7% 0.69× 5.45
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 41.7% 42.7% 2.34
Rosenborg BK leading at HT 31.5% 32.2% 3.10
Tromso leading at HT 26.8% 28.8% 3.48
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK -1: 2 61.4% 61.9% 1.62
Rosenborg BK -1: X 19.6% 17.8% 5.60
Rosenborg BK -1: 1 19.0% 17.8% 5.60
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso (0:1) 61.4% 60.3% 51.0% 1.18× 1.66
Draw (0:1) 19.6% 18.2% 21.2% 0.86× 5.51
Rosenborg BK (0:1) 19.0% 18.2% 28.0% 0.65× 5.51
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso (0:2) 81.0% 83.0% 72.0% 1.15× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 11.7% 11.4% 13.7% 0.83× 8.79
Rosenborg BK (0:2) 7.4% 7.7% 14.5% 0.53× 12.95
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso (0:3) 92.6% 92.6% 85.5% 1.08× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.0% 6.4% 7.0% 0.92× 15.58
Rosenborg BK (0:3) 2.3% 2.6% 7.8% 0.33× 38.98
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso (0:4) 97.7% 97.7% 92.2% 1.06× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.7% 1.4% 4.7% 0.30× 70.56
Rosenborg BK (0:4) 0.6% 1.4% 3.4% 0.42× 70.60
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK (1:0) 64.5% 64.5% 68.7% 0.94× 1.55
Draw (1:0) 18.6% 17.5% 14.8% 1.19× 5.70
Tromso (1:0) 16.8% 17.5% 16.8% 1.04× 5.70
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK (2:0) 83.2% 83.6% 83.2% 1.01× 1.20
Draw (2:0) 10.6% 11.5% 9.1% 1.27× 8.68
Tromso (2:0) 6.3% 6.7% 8.0% 0.83× 14.99
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.5% 48.6% 2.06
1st half highest scoring 26.7% 26.2% 3.82
Halves equal 24.8% 23.3% 4.30
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK to concede 76.2% 77.1% 71.0% 1.09× 1.30
Rosenborg BK clean sheet 23.8% 22.9% 29.0% 0.79× 4.36
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK clean sheet in 1st half 56.3% 57.0% 1.76
Rosenborg BK to concede in 1st half 43.7% 43.0% 2.32
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK over 2.5 corners 84.9% 80.9% 1.24
Rosenborg BK over 3.5 corners 72.7% 71.9% 1.39
Rosenborg BK under 6.5 corners 66.7% 66.7% 1.50
Rosenborg BK over 4.5 corners 58.9% 57.5% 1.74
Rosenborg BK under 5.5 corners 54.7% 52.8% 1.89
Rosenborg BK over 5.5 corners 45.3% 47.2% 2.12
Rosenborg BK under 4.5 corners 41.1% 42.5% 2.35
Rosenborg BK over 6.5 corners 33.3% 33.3% 3.00
Rosenborg BK under 3.5 corners 27.3% 28.1% 3.56
Rosenborg BK under 2.5 corners 15.1% 19.1% 5.25
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK under 3.5 goals 93.4% 92.3% 87.6% 1.05× 1.08
Rosenborg BK under 2.5 goals 80.7% 82.2% 73.3% 1.12× 1.22
Rosenborg BK over 0.5 goals 77.8% 77.9% 80.3% 0.97× 1.28
Rosenborg BK under 1.5 goals 55.6% 57.6% 47.7% 1.21× 1.74
Rosenborg BK over 1.5 goals 44.4% 42.4% 52.3% 0.81× 2.36
Rosenborg BK under 0.5 goals 22.2% 22.1% 19.7% 1.12× 4.53
Rosenborg BK over 2.5 goals 19.3% 17.8% 26.7% 0.67× 5.61
Rosenborg BK over 3.5 goals 6.6% 7.7% 12.4% 0.62× 13.04
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK under 1.5 in 1st half 86.2% 87.2% 1.15
Rosenborg BK under 0.5 in 1st half 52.3% 53.3% 1.88
Rosenborg BK over 0.5 in 1st half 47.7% 46.7% 2.14
Rosenborg BK over 1.5 in 1st half 13.8% 12.8% 7.83
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso (home no bet) 57.8% 56.1% 61.1% 0.92× 1.78
Draw (home no bet) 42.2% 43.9% 38.9% 1.13× 2.28
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK even goals 52.5% 50.9% 53.9% 0.95× 1.96
Rosenborg BK odd goals 47.5% 49.1% 46.1% 1.06× 2.04
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 29.6% 26.1% 3.83
HT 1-0 19.0% 20.1% 4.99
HT 0-1 16.8% 20.0% 4.99
HT 1-1 11.1% 10.9% 9.15
HT 2-0 6.2% 8.0% 12.48
HT 0-2 4.9% 2.5% 40.33
Any other HT score 4.8% 2.5% 40.33
HT 2-1 3.5% 2.5% 40.39
HT 1-2 3.1% 2.5% 40.41
HT 2-2 1.0% 2.5% 40.50
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK at HT / Rosenborg BK at FT 22.9% 20.5% 4.87
Tromso at HT / Tromso at FT 19.3% 17.2% 5.81
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 15.1% 17.2% 5.83
Draw at HT / Tromso at FT 13.4% 12.2% 8.20
Draw at HT / Rosenborg BK at FT 13.3% 12.2% 8.20
Rosenborg BK at HT / Draw at FT 5.8% 6.4% 15.58
Tromso at HT / Draw at FT 5.1% 6.4% 15.60
Rosenborg BK at HT / Tromso at FT 2.8% 3.7% 27.32
Tromso at HT / Rosenborg BK at FT 2.4% 3.7% 27.33
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK to score last 48.2% 46.3% 2.16
Tromso to score last 45.9% 46.2% 2.16
No goal scored 6.0% 6.3% 15.95
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.0% 93.7% 1.07
Rosenborg BK to lead by 1 at any time 56.6% 57.2% 1.75
Tromso to lead by 1 at any time 53.9% 50.9% 1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 49.1% 46.8% 2.14
Rosenborg BK to lead by 2 at any time 25.9% 25.7% 3.89
Tromso to lead by 2 at any time 23.5% 21.4% 4.68
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 17.9% 17.3% 5.78
Rosenborg BK to lead by 3 at any time 9.6% 7.6% 13.11
Tromso to lead by 3 at any time 8.3% 7.6% 13.15
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK most corners 54.9% 52.0% 1.92
Tromso most corners 34.8% 34.2% 2.92
Corners level 10.2% 10.4% 9.63
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.2% 87.1% 87.0% 1.00× 1.15
1-4 goals 76.6% 77.9% 73.1% 1.07× 1.28
2-6 goals 76.8% 77.9% 79.0% 0.99× 1.28
2-5 goals 72.1% 72.1% 74.4% 0.97× 1.39
2-4 goals 62.4% 62.7% 60.4% 1.04× 1.60
1-3 goals 60.1% 62.7% 56.5% 1.11× 1.60
3-6 goals 53.3% 52.9% 58.3% 0.91× 1.89
3-5 goals 48.5% 47.4% 53.6% 0.88× 2.11
2-3 goals 45.9% 47.4% 43.8% 1.08× 2.11
3-4 goals 38.9% 39.0% 39.6% 0.98× 2.56
1-2 goals 37.7% 39.0% 33.7% 1.16× 2.56
4-6 goals 30.9% 34.6% 35.5% 0.97× 2.89
4-5 goals 26.2% 28.5% 30.8% 0.93× 3.51
5-6 goals 14.4% 13.5% 18.9% 0.71× 7.40
7+ goals 3.1% 2.2% 3.4% 0.67× 44.56
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso never behind 37.4% 47.4% 2.11
Rosenborg BK never behind 40.1% 46.2% 2.17
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 51.5% 50.0% 48.4% 1.03× 2.00
Odd number of goals 48.5% 50.0% 51.6% 0.97× 2.00
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.6% 51.6% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 45.4% 48.4% 2.06
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.1% 51.5% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.9% 48.5% 2.06
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.0% 92.3% 94.8% 0.97× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 92.2% 92.3% 92.0% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 82.5% 81.7% 78.0% 1.05× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 79.9% 77.0% 82.1% 0.94× 1.30
Under 3.5 goals 66.0% 67.5% 61.4% 1.10× 1.48
Over 2.5 goals 56.3% 57.5% 61.4% 0.94× 1.74
Under 2.5 goals 43.7% 42.5% 38.6% 1.10× 2.35
Over 3.5 goals 34.0% 32.5% 38.6% 0.84× 3.08
Under 1.5 goals 20.1% 23.0% 17.9% 1.29× 4.35
Over 4.5 goals 17.5% 18.3% 22.0% 0.83× 5.46
Over 5.5 goals 7.8% 7.7% 8.0% 0.96× 12.95
Under 0.5 goals 6.0% 7.7% 5.2% 1.49× 12.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 96.8% 97.3% 96.5% 1.01× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 91.4% 92.0% 90.7% 1.02× 1.09
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 79.1% 76.2% 73.6% 1.04× 1.31
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 73.7% 71.7% 77.5% 0.93× 1.39
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 56.3% 58.0% 50.0% 1.16× 1.73
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 43.7% 42.1% 50.0% 0.84× 2.38
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 26.3% 28.3% 22.5% 1.25× 3.54
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 20.9% 23.8% 26.4% 0.90× 4.20
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 8.6% 8.0% 9.3% 0.85× 12.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 3.2% 2.7% 3.5% 0.77× 36.68
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 87.5% 88.3% 1.13
Over 0.5 in 1st half 70.4% 73.4% 1.36
Under 1.5 in 1st half 65.4% 67.5% 1.48
Over 1.5 in 1st half 34.6% 32.5% 3.08
Under 0.5 in 1st half 29.6% 26.6% 3.75
Over 2.5 in 1st half 12.5% 11.7% 8.57
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 81.9% 82.6% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 75.2% 79.8% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 48.5% 50.2% 1.99
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 51.5% 49.8% 2.01
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 24.8% 20.2% 4.95
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 18.1% 17.4% 5.76
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso not to score in both halves 74.8% 72.9% 1.37
Rosenborg BK not to score in both halves 72.5% 72.8% 1.37
Rosenborg BK to score in both halves 27.5% 27.2% 3.68
Tromso to score in both halves 25.2% 27.1% 3.69
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 60.0% 57.9% 56.5% 1.03× 1.73
Only Rosenborg BK scores 17.8% 17.1% 24.1% 0.71× 5.83
Only Tromso scores 16.2% 17.1% 14.8% 1.16× 5.84
Neither team scores 6.0% 7.2% 5.2% 1.38× 13.97
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 23.5% 22.3% 21.0% 1.06× 4.48
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.3% 23.1% 0.97× 4.48
Exactly 4 goals 16.5% 17.6% 16.8% 1.04× 5.69
Exactly 1 goals 14.2% 12.3% 13.0% 0.95× 8.13
Exactly 5 goals 9.7% 7.8% 14.2% 0.54× 12.88
6 or more goals 7.8% 7.8% 8.0% 0.97× 12.89
Exactly 0 goals 6.0% 7.8% 5.2% 1.50× 12.89
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 51.5% 49.9% 2.01
1 goal in 2nd half 30.3% 34.3% 2.92
No goals in 2nd half 18.1% 16.6% 6.03
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso not to win both halves 91.1% 92.2% 1.08
Rosenborg BK not to win both halves 89.6% 88.0% 1.14
Rosenborg BK to win both halves 10.4% 12.0% 8.34
Tromso to win both halves 8.9% 7.8% 12.86
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosenborg BK to win either half 53.8% 51.1% 1.96
Tromso to win either half 50.8% 51.1% 1.96
Tromso to win neither half 49.2% 48.9% 2.04
Rosenborg BK to win neither half 46.2% 48.9% 2.05
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso not to win to nil 83.8% 82.7% 85.2% 0.97× 1.21
Rosenborg BK not to win to nil 82.2% 82.6% 75.9% 1.09× 1.21
Rosenborg BK to win to nil 17.8% 17.4% 24.1% 0.72× 5.76
Tromso to win to nil 16.2% 17.3% 14.8% 1.17× 5.77
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 25.9% 27.4% 19.9% 1.37× 3.65
Rosenborg BK by 1 19.6% 17.3% 21.2% 0.81× 5.78
Tromso by 1 18.6% 17.3% 14.8% 1.17× 5.78
Rosenborg BK by 2 11.7% 11.8% 13.7% 0.86× 8.46
Tromso by 2 10.6% 11.8% 9.1% 1.30× 8.46
Rosenborg BK by 3+ 7.4% 7.3% 14.5% 0.50× 13.66
Tromso by 3+ 6.3% 7.3% 8.0% 0.91× 13.66
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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