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Royal Charleroi SC v Cercle Brugge KSV — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · BEL-Pro League · 2627

BEL-Pro League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Royal Charleroi SC win
51.0%
model 50.8%
Draw
21.9%
model 23.7%
Cercle Brugge KSV win
27.2%
model 25.5%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (419 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 11.0%
  2. 2-1 9.6%
  3. 1-0 8.2%
  4. 2-0 7.8%
  5. 1-2 6.5%

Goals

Over 2.558.9% Under 2.541.1%
BTTS yes59.8% BTTS no40.2%
Royal Charleroi SC 1+83.8% Royal Charleroi SC 2+54.4%
Cercle Brugge KSV 1+70.9% Cercle Brugge KSV 2+35.0%

Expected goals 1.82 – 1.24. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
78/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
Royal Charleroi SC over 1.5 goals
Home goals O/U · usually 44%
53.3% fair odds 1.88
strong signal · 8007 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both teams to score 2+
GG/NG 2+ · usually 86%
83.1% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 6854 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Royal Charleroi SC carry the stronger rating, 1569 Elo against 1422.
  • Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Royal Charleroi SC have an estimated 51.0% win probability, against 27.2% for Cercle Brugge KSV and 21.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.82 for Royal Charleroi SC and 1.24 for Cercle Brugge KSV.

Why Royal Charleroi SC

Royal Charleroi SC carry the stronger rating, 1569 Elo against 1422. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.9%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Cercle Brugge KSV can win

Nothing in the data singles out Cercle Brugge KSV.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Royal Charleroi SC, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Cercle Brugge KSV, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Royal Charleroi SC: 56% possession, 18.0 shots a match, 8.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Cercle Brugge KSV: 45% possession, 17.4 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Royal Charleroi SC's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Royal Charleroi SC are the model's most likely outcome at 51.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.0%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.82–1.24 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.77–1.30 1-1 11% 59% 61%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC to win 50.7% 51.6% 42.9% 1.20× 1.94
Cercle Brugge KSV to win 25.5% 27.3% 30.9% 0.88× 3.66
Draw 23.7% 23.5% 26.4% 0.89× 4.26
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC & both teams score 26.8% 26.5% 18.7% 1.42× 3.78
Royal Charleroi SC & not both score 24.0% 21.5% 24.4% 0.88× 4.65
Draw & both teams score 18.6% 18.2% 18.8% 0.97× 5.49
Cercle Brugge KSV & both teams score 14.4% 12.6% 16.5% 0.77× 7.91
Cercle Brugge KSV & not both score 11.1% 12.6% 14.5% 0.87× 7.91
Draw & not both score 5.1% 7.7% 7.7% 0.99× 13.05
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC & over 1.5 42.6% 42.8% 33.6% 1.27× 2.34
Royal Charleroi SC & over 2.5 34.8% 31.8% 26.1% 1.22× 3.15
Royal Charleroi SC & under 3.5 30.4% 31.8% 29.5% 1.08× 3.15
Royal Charleroi SC & over 3.5 20.4% 21.8% 13.6% 1.61× 4.59
Cercle Brugge KSV & over 1.5 20.1% 21.8% 24.4% 0.89× 4.59
Draw & over 1.5 18.6% 17.7% 18.8% 0.94× 5.66
Cercle Brugge KSV & over 2.5 16.5% 17.7% 19.8% 0.90× 5.66
Cercle Brugge KSV & under 3.5 17.0% 17.7% 21.9% 0.81× 5.66
Royal Charleroi SC & under 2.5 16.0% 17.7% 17.0% 1.04× 5.66
Draw & under 2.5 16.1% 17.7% 19.9% 0.89× 5.66
Draw & under 3.5 16.1% 17.7% 19.9% 0.89× 5.66
Royal Charleroi SC & under 1.5 8.2% 7.6% 9.4% 0.81× 13.17
Draw & over 2.5 7.7% 7.6% 6.6% 1.14× 13.17
Draw & over 3.5 7.7% 7.6% 6.6% 1.14× 13.17
Cercle Brugge KSV & under 2.5 9.0% 7.6% 11.3% 0.67× 13.17
Cercle Brugge KSV & over 3.5 8.5% 7.6% 9.1% 0.83× 13.17
Draw & under 1.5 5.1% 7.6% 7.7% 0.98× 13.17
Cercle Brugge KSV & under 1.5 5.4% 7.6% 6.6% 1.14× 13.17
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC (1UP) 66.6% 69.8% 1.43
Cercle Brugge KSV (1UP) 45.1% 48.1% 2.08
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC (2UP) 50.7% 55.8% 1.79
Cercle Brugge KSV (2UP) 25.5% 27.3% 3.67
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC to win 2nd half 41.7% 40.8% 2.45
2nd half drawn 32.9% 32.4% 3.09
Cercle Brugge KSV to win 2nd half 25.5% 29.6% 3.38
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV (+2.5) 87.0% 87.4% 89.5% 0.98× 1.14
Royal Charleroi SC (+0.5) 74.5% 72.8% 69.1% 1.05× 1.37
Cercle Brugge KSV (+1.5) 71.5% 72.8% 77.9% 0.93× 1.37
Royal Charleroi SC (-0.5) 50.7% 52.0% 42.9% 1.21× 1.92
Cercle Brugge KSV (+0.5) 49.3% 48.0% 57.1% 0.84× 2.08
Royal Charleroi SC (-1.5) 28.5% 27.2% 22.1% 1.23× 3.68
Cercle Brugge KSV (-0.5) 25.5% 27.2% 30.9% 0.88× 3.68
Royal Charleroi SC (-2.5) 13.0% 12.6% 10.5% 1.20× 7.93
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV to concede 83.8% 82.9% 77.9% 1.06× 1.21
Cercle Brugge KSV clean sheet 16.2% 17.1% 22.1% 0.78× 5.84
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV to concede in 1st half 54.3% 53.3% 1.88
Cercle Brugge KSV clean sheet in 1st half 45.7% 46.7% 2.14
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV over 2.5 corners 81.0% 81.4% 1.23
Cercle Brugge KSV under 6.5 corners 75.8% 75.9% 1.32
Cercle Brugge KSV over 3.5 corners 66.2% 67.5% 1.48
Cercle Brugge KSV under 5.5 corners 64.0% 61.8% 1.62
Cercle Brugge KSV over 4.5 corners 50.4% 53.1% 1.89
Cercle Brugge KSV under 4.5 corners 49.6% 46.9% 2.13
Cercle Brugge KSV over 5.5 corners 36.0% 38.2% 2.62
Cercle Brugge KSV under 3.5 corners 33.8% 32.5% 3.08
Cercle Brugge KSV over 6.5 corners 24.2% 24.1% 4.16
Cercle Brugge KSV under 2.5 corners 19.1% 18.6% 5.39
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV under 3.5 goals 96.3% 97.3% 95.2% 1.02× 1.03
Cercle Brugge KSV under 2.5 goals 87.2% 87.2% 86.9% 1.00× 1.15
Cercle Brugge KSV over 0.5 goals 70.9% 71.3% 68.1% 1.05× 1.40
Cercle Brugge KSV under 1.5 goals 65.0% 63.7% 64.7% 0.99× 1.57
Cercle Brugge KSV over 1.5 goals 35.0% 36.3% 35.3% 1.03× 2.76
Cercle Brugge KSV under 0.5 goals 29.1% 28.7% 31.9% 0.90× 3.48
Cercle Brugge KSV over 2.5 goals 12.8% 12.8% 13.1% 0.98× 7.81
Cercle Brugge KSV over 3.5 goals 3.7% 2.7% 4.8% 0.56× 37.45
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV under 1.5 in 1st half 91.2% 93.6% 1.07
Cercle Brugge KSV under 0.5 in 1st half 61.0% 62.4% 1.60
Cercle Brugge KSV over 0.5 in 1st half 39.0% 37.6% 2.66
Cercle Brugge KSV over 1.5 in 1st half 8.8% 6.4% 15.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC (away no bet) 68.1% 66.7% 61.9% 1.08× 1.50
Draw (away no bet) 31.9% 33.3% 38.1% 0.87× 3.01
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV even goals 54.2% 53.5% 57.4% 0.93× 1.87
Cercle Brugge KSV odd goals 45.8% 46.5% 42.6% 1.09× 2.15
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 80.6% 82.5% 1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals 19.4% 17.5% 5.71
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 70.4% 69.2% 1.45
Both halves under 1.5 goals 29.6% 30.8% 3.25
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 62.2% 59.4% 1.68
Royal Charleroi SC to score 2+ in a row 45.1% 47.5% 2.10
Cercle Brugge KSV to score 2+ in a row 25.1% 27.0% 3.70
Either team to score 3+ in a row 24.6% 21.2% 4.71
Royal Charleroi SC to score 3+ in a row 18.4% 17.4% 5.76
Cercle Brugge KSV to score 3+ in a row 6.6% 7.8% 12.81
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC corners (+3.5) 90.9% 89.6% 1.12
Royal Charleroi SC corners (+2.5) 86.3% 84.5% 1.18
Royal Charleroi SC corners (+1.5) 80.1% 79.7% 1.25
Cercle Brugge KSV corners (+3.5) 65.1% 65.7% 1.52
Cercle Brugge KSV corners (+2.5) 55.9% 57.1% 1.75
Royal Charleroi SC corners (-1.5) 53.8% 52.5% 1.91
Cercle Brugge KSV corners (+1.5) 46.2% 47.5% 2.10
Royal Charleroi SC corners (-2.5) 44.1% 42.9% 2.33
Royal Charleroi SC corners (-3.5) 34.9% 34.3% 2.92
Cercle Brugge KSV corners (-1.5) 19.9% 20.3% 4.93
Cercle Brugge KSV corners (-2.5) 13.7% 15.5% 6.45
Cercle Brugge KSV corners (-3.5) 9.1% 10.4% 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 48.5% 41.6% 2.40
9-11 corners 27.8% 31.2% 3.20
0-8 corners 23.7% 25.6% 3.91
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 84.0% 80.8% 1.24
Over 8.5 corners 76.3% 76.5% 1.31
Over 9.5 corners 67.5% 67.7% 1.48
Under 12.5 corners 60.6% 63.4% 1.58
Over 10.5 corners 58.1% 57.8% 1.73
Under 11.5 corners 51.5% 53.3% 1.88
Over 11.5 corners 48.5% 46.7% 2.14
Under 10.5 corners 41.9% 42.2% 2.37
Over 12.5 corners 39.4% 36.6% 2.73
Under 9.5 corners 32.5% 32.3% 3.10
Under 8.5 corners 23.7% 23.5% 4.26
Under 7.5 corners 16.0% 19.2% 5.20
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 11.0% 11.2% 12.3% 0.91× 8.90
0-1 5.4% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.49
1-0 8.2% 7.4% 9.4% 0.79× 13.48
1-2 6.5% 7.4% 8.8% 0.84× 13.49
2-0 7.8% 7.4% 7.7% 0.96× 13.48
2-1 9.6% 7.4% 8.8% 0.84× 13.48
2-2 6.0% 7.4% 5.2% 1.41× 13.49
3-1 5.9% 7.4% 2.9% 2.53× 13.49
0-0 5.1% 7.4% 7.7% 0.96× 13.49
0-2 3.6% 1.7% 4.8% 0.36× 58.10
0-3 1.5% 1.7% 2.2% 0.80× 58.11
0-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.9% 1.86× 58.11
1-3 2.7% 1.7% 3.1% 0.56× 58.10
1-4 0.8% 1.7% 1.2% 1.39× 58.11
2-3 2.5% 1.7% 2.2% 0.80× 58.10
2-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.9% 1.86× 58.11
3-0 4.7% 1.7% 4.0% 0.43× 58.10
3-2 3.6% 1.7% 2.5% 0.70× 58.10
3-3 1.5% 1.7% 0.9% 1.86× 58.11
3-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.5% 3.72× 58.11
4-0 2.2% 1.7% 2.0% 0.86× 58.11
4-1 2.7% 1.7% 2.0% 0.86× 58.10
4-2 1.6% 1.7% 1.4% 1.24× 58.11
4-3 0.7% 1.7% 0.8% 2.23× 58.11
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.5% 3.72× 58.11
Any other score 4.6% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.10
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC leading at HT (DNB) 64.9% 63.2% 1.58
Cercle Brugge KSV leading at HT (DNB) 35.1% 36.8% 2.72
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC or Cercle Brugge KSV (12) 76.3% 76.5% 73.6% 1.04× 1.31
Royal Charleroi SC or draw (1X) 74.5% 72.7% 69.1% 1.05× 1.38
Cercle Brugge KSV or draw (X2) 49.3% 48.4% 57.1% 0.85× 2.06
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC or draw at HT 78.9% 76.5% 1.31
Cercle Brugge KSV or draw at HT 61.0% 62.7% 1.60
Royal Charleroi SC or Cercle Brugge KSV at HT 60.1% 62.6% 1.60
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC or draw (1UP) 74.5% 79.6% 1.26
Cercle Brugge KSV or draw (1UP) 49.3% 52.5% 1.91
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC or draw in 2nd half 74.5% 70.4% 1.42
Royal Charleroi SC or Cercle Brugge KSV in 2nd half 67.2% 67.6% 1.48
Cercle Brugge KSV or draw in 2nd half 58.3% 59.2% 1.69
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 59.2% 55.2% 1.81
Neither half drawn 40.8% 44.8% 2.23
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC (DNB) 66.5% 67.0% 58.2% 1.15× 1.49
Cercle Brugge KSV (DNB) 33.5% 33.0% 41.8% 0.79× 3.03
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC to score first 56.6% 59.4% 1.68
Cercle Brugge KSV to score first 38.4% 37.3% 2.68
No goal scored 5.1% 6.3% 15.99
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 59.8% 55.7% 53.7% 1.04× 1.80
Not both teams to score 40.2% 44.3% 46.3% 0.96× 2.26
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 48.9% 45.2% 41.5% 1.09× 2.21
Not both score & under 2.5 30.1% 34.0% 35.6% 0.95× 2.94
Both score & under 2.5 11.0% 11.9% 12.3% 0.96× 8.41
Not both score & over 2.5 10.1% 11.9% 10.8% 1.10× 8.41
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 81.0% 83.1% 85.5% 0.97× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 19.0% 16.9% 14.5% 1.17× 5.91
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 66.1% 68.0% 1.47
Both teams to score in 2nd half 33.9% 32.0% 3.13
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 52.0% 54.1% 1.85
Both score 2nd half only 26.8% 25.9% 3.86
Both score 1st half only 14.1% 11.9% 8.38
Both score in both halves 7.2% 7.1% 14.05
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 78.8% 79.6% 1.26
Both teams to score by HT 21.2% 20.4% 4.90
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 60.1% 62.4% 1.60
A half without a goal 39.9% 37.6% 2.66
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 44.8% 43.4% 47.7% 0.91× 2.31
4-6 goals 32.9% 30.9% 26.4% 1.17× 3.24
0-1 goals 18.7% 19.2% 23.5% 0.82× 5.21
7+ goals 3.6% 2.0% 2.8% 0.72× 50.19
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV to score exactly 1 35.9% 36.0% 32.9% 1.09× 2.78
Cercle Brugge KSV to score exactly 0 29.1% 27.4% 31.9% 0.86× 3.65
Cercle Brugge KSV to score exactly 2 22.2% 23.1% 22.4% 1.03× 4.32
Cercle Brugge KSV to score 3+ 12.8% 12.9% 13.1% 0.98× 7.75
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC to score exactly 1 29.5% 26.4% 34.6% 0.76× 3.79
Royal Charleroi SC to score 3+ 27.5% 26.4% 19.3% 1.37× 3.79
Royal Charleroi SC to score exactly 2 26.8% 26.4% 24.4% 1.08× 3.79
Royal Charleroi SC to score exactly 0 16.2% 18.3% 22.1% 0.83× 5.45
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 39.9% 37.4% 2.68
Royal Charleroi SC leading at HT 39.0% 37.3% 2.68
Cercle Brugge KSV leading at HT 21.1% 23.5% 4.26
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC -1: 2 49.3% 48.1% 2.08
Royal Charleroi SC -1: 1 28.5% 26.9% 3.72
Royal Charleroi SC -1: X 22.2% 23.2% 4.30
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV (0:1) 49.3% 47.7% 57.1% 0.83× 2.10
Royal Charleroi SC (0:1) 28.5% 27.4% 22.1% 1.24× 3.65
Draw (0:1) 22.2% 23.5% 21.0% 1.12× 4.25
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV (0:2) 71.5% 74.5% 77.9% 0.96× 1.34
Draw (0:2) 15.6% 15.7% 11.7% 1.34× 6.37
Royal Charleroi SC (0:2) 13.0% 11.4% 10.5% 1.08× 8.78
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV (0:3) 87.0% 88.5% 89.5% 0.99× 1.13
Draw (0:3) 8.1% 6.4% 6.2% 1.04× 15.56
Royal Charleroi SC (0:3) 4.9% 2.6% 4.5% 0.57× 38.93
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV (0:4) 95.1% 97.7% 95.5% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 3.3% 1.4% 2.5% 0.57× 70.50
Royal Charleroi SC (0:4) 1.6% 1.4% 2.2% 0.66× 70.57
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC (1:0) 74.5% 71.7% 69.1% 1.04× 1.39
Draw (1:0) 14.9% 12.5% 17.6% 0.71× 8.01
Cercle Brugge KSV (1:0) 10.6% 12.5% 13.4% 0.93× 8.02
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC (2:0) 89.4% 88.1% 86.6% 1.02× 1.14
Draw (2:0) 7.2% 6.7% 8.6% 0.77× 14.98
Cercle Brugge KSV (2:0) 3.4% 2.8% 4.9% 0.56× 36.34
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.9% 48.6% 2.06
1st half highest scoring 27.3% 26.2% 3.82
Halves equal 23.8% 23.3% 4.30
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC to concede 70.9% 72.0% 68.1% 1.06× 1.39
Royal Charleroi SC clean sheet 29.1% 28.0% 31.9% 0.88× 3.57
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC clean sheet in 1st half 61.0% 62.3% 1.61
Royal Charleroi SC to concede in 1st half 39.0% 37.7% 2.65
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC over 2.5 corners 92.7% 89.3% 1.12
Royal Charleroi SC over 3.5 corners 84.8% 80.9% 1.24
Royal Charleroi SC over 4.5 corners 74.2% 71.9% 1.39
Royal Charleroi SC over 5.5 corners 62.1% 62.3% 1.61
Royal Charleroi SC under 6.5 corners 50.3% 52.8% 1.90
Royal Charleroi SC over 6.5 corners 49.7% 47.2% 2.12
Royal Charleroi SC under 5.5 corners 37.9% 37.7% 2.65
Royal Charleroi SC under 4.5 corners 25.8% 28.1% 3.56
Royal Charleroi SC under 3.5 corners 15.2% 19.1% 5.25
Royal Charleroi SC under 2.5 corners 7.3% 10.7% 9.35
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC under 3.5 goals 88.8% 87.5% 90.9% 0.96× 1.14
Royal Charleroi SC over 0.5 goals 83.8% 82.2% 77.9% 1.05× 1.22
Royal Charleroi SC under 2.5 goals 72.5% 73.2% 80.7% 0.91× 1.37
Royal Charleroi SC over 1.5 goals 54.3% 53.3% 43.5% 1.23× 1.88
Royal Charleroi SC under 1.5 goals 45.7% 46.7% 56.5% 0.83× 2.14
Royal Charleroi SC over 2.5 goals 27.5% 26.8% 19.3% 1.39× 3.73
Royal Charleroi SC under 0.5 goals 16.2% 17.8% 22.1% 0.81× 5.61
Royal Charleroi SC over 3.5 goals 11.2% 12.5% 9.1% 1.38× 7.98
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC under 1.5 in 1st half 81.5% 81.4% 1.23
Royal Charleroi SC over 0.5 in 1st half 54.3% 53.3% 1.88
Royal Charleroi SC under 0.5 in 1st half 45.7% 46.7% 2.14
Royal Charleroi SC over 1.5 in 1st half 18.5% 18.6% 5.38
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV (home no bet) 51.8% 52.1% 53.9% 0.97× 1.92
Draw (home no bet) 48.2% 47.9% 46.1% 1.04× 2.09
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC even goals 51.3% 50.9% 52.6% 0.97× 1.96
Royal Charleroi SC odd goals 48.7% 49.1% 47.4% 1.04× 2.04
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 27.9% 26.1% 3.84
HT 1-0 21.8% 22.2% 4.51
HT 0-1 13.7% 11.0% 9.13
HT 1-1 10.9% 10.9% 9.15
HT 2-0 8.6% 8.0% 12.45
Any other HT score 5.8% 8.0% 12.48
HT 2-1 4.2% 2.5% 40.36
HT 0-2 3.4% 2.5% 40.39
HT 1-2 2.7% 2.5% 40.43
HT 2-2 1.0% 2.5% 40.50
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC at HT / Royal Charleroi SC at FT 31.4% 33.4% 2.99
Draw at HT / Royal Charleroi SC at FT 16.4% 17.2% 5.82
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 13.5% 12.2% 8.20
Cercle Brugge KSV at HT / Cercle Brugge KSV at FT 13.4% 12.2% 8.20
Draw at HT / Cercle Brugge KSV at FT 9.9% 6.5% 15.50
Royal Charleroi SC at HT / Draw at FT 5.4% 6.4% 15.59
Cercle Brugge KSV at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.7% 27.26
Cercle Brugge KSV at HT / Royal Charleroi SC at FT 3.0% 3.7% 27.31
Royal Charleroi SC at HT / Cercle Brugge KSV at FT 2.2% 3.7% 27.33
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC to score last 56.6% 57.9% 1.73
Cercle Brugge KSV to score last 38.3% 38.0% 2.63
No goal scored 5.1% 6.3% 15.99
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.9% 93.7% 1.07
Royal Charleroi SC to lead by 1 at any time 66.6% 68.4% 1.46
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 52.2% 50.8% 1.97
Cercle Brugge KSV to lead by 1 at any time 45.1% 46.7% 2.14
Royal Charleroi SC to lead by 2 at any time 36.0% 38.0% 2.63
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 20.8% 21.3% 4.69
Cercle Brugge KSV to lead by 2 at any time 16.6% 17.3% 5.79
Royal Charleroi SC to lead by 3 at any time 15.9% 17.3% 5.79
Cercle Brugge KSV to lead by 3 at any time 5.0% 2.5% 39.91
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC most corners 63.5% 60.5% 1.65
Cercle Brugge KSV most corners 27.6% 31.0% 3.23
Corners level 8.9% 8.5% 11.79
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.9% 87.1% 86.0% 1.01× 1.15
2-6 goals 77.7% 77.9% 73.9% 1.05× 1.28
1-4 goals 75.5% 77.9% 76.9% 1.01× 1.28
2-5 goals 72.3% 72.1% 70.2% 1.03× 1.39
2-4 goals 61.9% 62.7% 61.1% 1.03× 1.60
1-3 goals 58.4% 58.8% 63.4% 0.93× 1.70
3-6 goals 55.3% 58.8% 49.5% 1.19× 1.70
3-5 goals 50.0% 47.4% 45.8% 1.03× 2.11
2-3 goals 44.8% 43.7% 47.7% 0.92× 2.29
3-4 goals 39.5% 39.0% 36.7% 1.06× 2.56
1-2 goals 36.0% 39.0% 40.3% 0.97× 2.56
4-6 goals 32.9% 34.6% 26.4% 1.31× 2.89
4-5 goals 27.6% 28.5% 22.7% 1.26× 3.50
5-6 goals 15.8% 18.8% 13.0% 1.45× 5.31
7+ goals 3.6% 2.2% 2.8% 0.81× 44.55
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC never behind 49.8% 55.6% 1.80
Cercle Brugge KSV never behind 28.4% 31.0% 3.22
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 50.9% 50.0% 50.0% 1.00× 2.00
Odd number of goals 49.1% 50.0% 50.0% 1.00× 2.00
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.0% 51.5% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 46.0% 48.5% 2.06
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.7% 51.5% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.3% 48.5% 2.06
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.9% 92.3% 92.3% 1.00× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 91.0% 92.3% 93.5% 0.99× 1.08
Over 1.5 goals 81.3% 81.7% 76.5% 1.07× 1.22
Under 4.5 goals 80.6% 81.7% 84.4% 0.97× 1.22
Under 3.5 goals 63.5% 62.3% 71.0% 0.88× 1.60
Over 2.5 goals 58.9% 57.5% 52.2% 1.10× 1.74
Under 2.5 goals 41.1% 42.5% 47.8% 0.89× 2.35
Over 3.5 goals 36.5% 37.7% 29.0% 1.30× 2.66
Over 4.5 goals 19.4% 18.3% 15.6% 1.17× 5.46
Under 1.5 goals 18.7% 18.3% 23.5% 0.78× 5.46
Over 5.5 goals 9.0% 7.7% 6.5% 1.19× 12.94
Under 0.5 goals 5.1% 7.7% 7.7% 1.00× 12.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 96.2% 97.3% 97.1% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 90.0% 86.7% 92.9% 0.93× 1.15
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 76.6% 76.2% 82.0% 0.93× 1.31
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 75.9% 76.2% 69.0% 1.10× 1.31
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 52.9% 52.8% 62.2% 0.85× 1.90
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 47.1% 47.2% 37.8% 1.25× 2.12
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 24.1% 23.8% 31.0% 0.77× 4.20
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 23.4% 23.8% 18.0% 1.32× 4.20
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 10.0% 13.3% 7.1% 1.87× 7.50
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 3.8% 2.7% 2.9% 0.95× 36.67
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 86.2% 88.3% 1.13
Over 0.5 in 1st half 72.1% 73.4% 1.36
Under 1.5 in 1st half 63.4% 64.3% 1.56
Over 1.5 in 1st half 36.6% 35.7% 2.80
Under 0.5 in 1st half 27.9% 26.6% 3.76
Over 2.5 in 1st half 13.8% 11.7% 8.55
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 83.0% 82.7% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 73.6% 75.7% 1.32
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 46.8% 50.1% 2.00
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 53.2% 49.9% 2.01
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 26.4% 24.3% 4.12
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 17.0% 17.3% 5.76
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV not to score in both halves 79.6% 76.4% 1.31
Royal Charleroi SC not to score in both halves 64.9% 62.3% 1.61
Royal Charleroi SC to score in both halves 35.1% 37.7% 2.65
Cercle Brugge KSV to score in both halves 20.4% 23.6% 4.23
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 59.8% 57.9% 53.7% 1.08× 1.73
Only Royal Charleroi SC scores 24.0% 21.3% 24.4% 0.87× 4.70
Only Cercle Brugge KSV scores 11.1% 11.1% 14.5% 0.76× 9.05
Neither team scores 5.1% 7.2% 7.7% 0.93× 13.97
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 22.4% 22.3% 24.5% 0.91× 4.48
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.3% 23.3% 0.96× 4.48
Exactly 4 goals 17.1% 17.6% 13.6% 1.29× 5.69
Exactly 1 goals 13.6% 12.3% 15.9% 0.77× 8.13
Exactly 5 goals 10.5% 12.3% 9.3% 1.33× 8.13
6 or more goals 9.0% 7.8% 6.5% 1.20× 12.88
Exactly 0 goals 5.1% 7.8% 7.7% 1.01× 12.89
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 53.2% 50.0% 2.00
1 goal in 2nd half 29.8% 26.7% 3.74
No goals in 2nd half 17.0% 16.5% 6.04
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV not to win both halves 94.6% 92.3% 1.08
Royal Charleroi SC not to win both halves 83.7% 82.5% 1.21
Royal Charleroi SC to win both halves 16.3% 17.5% 5.73
Cercle Brugge KSV to win both halves 5.4% 7.7% 12.98
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Royal Charleroi SC to win either half 64.4% 64.2% 1.56
Cercle Brugge KSV to win neither half 58.8% 57.2% 1.75
Cercle Brugge KSV to win either half 41.2% 42.8% 2.34
Royal Charleroi SC to win neither half 35.7% 35.8% 2.79
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV not to win to nil 88.9% 88.1% 85.5% 1.03× 1.14
Royal Charleroi SC not to win to nil 76.0% 78.7% 75.6% 1.04× 1.27
Royal Charleroi SC to win to nil 24.0% 21.3% 24.4% 0.87× 4.69
Cercle Brugge KSV to win to nil 11.1% 11.9% 14.5% 0.82× 8.40
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 23.7% 23.3% 26.4% 0.88× 4.29
Royal Charleroi SC by 1 22.2% 23.3% 21.0% 1.11× 4.29
Royal Charleroi SC by 2 15.6% 17.3% 11.7% 1.48× 5.78
Cercle Brugge KSV by 1 14.9% 11.8% 17.6% 0.67× 8.46
Royal Charleroi SC by 3+ 13.0% 11.8% 10.5% 1.13× 8.46
Cercle Brugge KSV by 2 7.2% 7.3% 8.6% 0.85× 13.66
Cercle Brugge KSV by 3+ 3.4% 3.0% 4.9% 0.60× 33.81
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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