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Rubin Kazan v Fakel Voronezh — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 31 October 2026 · RUS-Premier League · 2627

RUS-Premier League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Rubin Kazan win
52.2%
model 54.1%
Draw
29.2%
model 30.0%
Fakel Voronezh win
18.6%
model 15.8%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 16.9%
  2. 0-0 14.2%
  3. 1-1 12.9%
  4. 2-0 12.7%
  5. 2-1 8.2%

Goals

Over 2.533.6% Under 2.566.4%
BTTS yes37.1% BTTS no62.9%
Rubin Kazan 1+75.4% Rubin Kazan 2+40.9%
Fakel Voronezh 1+47.5% Fakel Voronezh 2+13.7%

Expected goals 1.40 – 0.64. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
84/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)
Over/Under (whole line) · usually 35%
53.8% fair odds 1.86
strong signal · 700 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Rubin Kazan or draw (1UP)
Double chance 1UP
84.0% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 424 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Rubin Kazan carry the stronger rating, 1549 Elo against 1341.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Rubin Kazan have an estimated 52.2% win probability, against 29.2% for the draw and 18.6% for Fakel Voronezh. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.40 for Rubin Kazan and 0.64 for Fakel Voronezh.

Why Rubin Kazan

Rubin Kazan carry the stronger rating, 1549 Elo against 1341.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.2%. A combined 2.05 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Fakel Voronezh can win

Nothing in the data singles out Fakel Voronezh.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Rubin Kazan, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Fakel Voronezh, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Rubin Kazan: 53% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 15.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Fakel Voronezh: 45% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Rubin Kazan are the model's most likely outcome at 52.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 16.9%. Confidence 84/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.40–0.64 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.20–0.50 1-0 21% 24% 29%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan to win 52.4% 51.5% 44.1% 1.17× 1.94
Draw 33.4% 30.4% 28.0% 1.08× 3.29
Fakel Voronezh to win 14.2% 13.5% 28.0% 0.48× 7.40
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan & not both score 41.2% 40.0% 25.4% 1.57× 2.50
Draw & not both score 19.5% 18.0% 7.3% 2.46× 5.56
Draw & both teams score 13.9% 13.3% 20.9% 0.63× 7.53
Rubin Kazan & both teams score 11.2% 13.3% 18.9% 0.70× 7.54
Fakel Voronezh & not both score 10.6% 13.3% 14.8% 0.89× 7.54
Fakel Voronezh & both teams score 3.6% 4.9% 13.4% 0.36× 20.59
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan & under 3.5 45.8% 45.0% 30.9% 1.46× 2.22
Rubin Kazan & under 2.5 33.9% 30.8% 18.3% 1.68× 3.25
Rubin Kazan & over 1.5 31.7% 30.8% 33.5% 0.92× 3.25
Draw & under 2.5 31.6% 30.8% 22.2% 1.39× 3.25
Draw & under 3.5 31.6% 30.8% 22.2% 1.39× 3.25
Rubin Kazan & under 1.5 20.8% 21.6% 10.8% 2.01× 4.63
Draw & under 1.5 19.5% 18.0% 7.3% 2.46× 5.56
Rubin Kazan & over 2.5 18.5% 18.0% 26.0% 0.69× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 13.9% 12.8% 20.9% 0.61× 7.79
Fakel Voronezh & under 3.5 13.3% 12.8% 20.5% 0.63× 7.79
Fakel Voronezh & under 2.5 10.2% 12.8% 11.8% 1.09× 7.79
Fakel Voronezh & under 1.5 7.9% 7.9% 7.7% 1.03× 12.63
Rubin Kazan & over 3.5 6.7% 7.9% 13.4% 0.59× 12.63
Fakel Voronezh & over 1.5 6.3% 7.9% 20.5% 0.39× 12.63
Fakel Voronezh & over 2.5 4.0% 4.8% 16.5% 0.29× 20.81
Draw & over 2.5 1.8% 4.8% 6.1% 0.79× 20.83
Draw & over 3.5 1.8% 4.8% 6.1% 0.79× 20.83
Fakel Voronezh & over 3.5 0.9% 4.8% 7.7% 0.62× 20.83
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan (1UP) 60.9% 62.7% — — 1.59
Fakel Voronezh (1UP) 25.0% 23.1% — — 4.34
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan (2UP) 52.4% 55.0% — — 1.82
Fakel Voronezh (2UP) 14.2% 14.3% — — 7.00
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 46.3% 45.8% — — 2.19
Rubin Kazan to win 2nd half 39.8% 36.1% — — 2.77
Fakel Voronezh to win 2nd half 14.0% 11.5% — — 8.73
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fakel Voronezh under 1.5 in 2nd half 96.3% 93.4% — — 1.07
Fakel Voronezh under 0.5 in 2nd half 74.1% 75.5% — — 1.33
Fakel Voronezh over 0.5 in 2nd half 25.9% 24.5% — — 4.08
Fakel Voronezh over 1.5 in 2nd half 3.7% 6.6% — — 15.26
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan under 1.5 in 2nd half 85.0% 82.6% — — 1.21
Rubin Kazan under 0.5 in 2nd half 50.5% 55.0% — — 1.82
Rubin Kazan over 0.5 in 2nd half 49.5% 45.0% — — 2.22
Rubin Kazan over 1.5 in 2nd half 15.0% 17.4% — — 5.76
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fakel Voronezh (+2.5) 91.6% 92.1% 89.6% 1.03× 1.09
Rubin Kazan (+0.5) 85.8% 88.5% 72.0% 1.23× 1.13
Fakel Voronezh (+1.5) 75.6% 78.5% 77.4% 1.01× 1.27
Rubin Kazan (-0.5) 52.4% 52.4% 44.1% 1.19× 1.91
Fakel Voronezh (+0.5) 47.6% 47.6% 55.9% 0.85× 2.10
Rubin Kazan (-1.5) 24.4% 21.5% 22.6% 0.95× 4.65
Fakel Voronezh (-0.5) 14.2% 11.5% 28.0% 0.41× 8.66
Rubin Kazan (-2.5) 8.4% 7.9% 10.4% 0.76× 12.68
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fakel Voronezh to concede 69.9% 72.4% 78.0% 0.93× 1.38
Fakel Voronezh clean sheet 30.1% 27.6% 22.0% 1.26× 3.62
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fakel Voronezh clean sheet in 1st half 59.7% 57.1% — — 1.75
Fakel Voronezh to concede in 1st half 40.3% 42.9% — — 2.33
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fakel Voronezh clean sheet in 2nd half 50.5% 54.8% — — 1.83
Fakel Voronezh to concede in 2nd half 49.5% 45.2% — — 2.21
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fakel Voronezh under 6.5 corners 80.2% 81.4% — — 1.23
Fakel Voronezh over 2.5 corners 78.8% 76.0% — — 1.32
Fakel Voronezh under 5.5 corners 68.8% 67.6% — — 1.48
Fakel Voronezh over 3.5 corners 62.7% 61.8% — — 1.62
Fakel Voronezh under 4.5 corners 54.0% 53.1% — — 1.89
Fakel Voronezh over 4.5 corners 46.0% 46.9% — — 2.13
Fakel Voronezh under 3.5 corners 37.3% 38.2% — — 2.62
Fakel Voronezh over 5.5 corners 31.2% 32.4% — — 3.09
Fakel Voronezh under 2.5 corners 21.2% 24.0% — — 4.17
Fakel Voronezh over 6.5 corners 19.8% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fakel Voronezh under 3.5 goals 99.8% 97.5% 97.0% 1.01× 1.03
Fakel Voronezh under 2.5 goals 98.6% 97.5% 88.8% 1.10× 1.03
Fakel Voronezh under 1.5 goals 91.0% 92.3% 70.1% 1.32× 1.08
Fakel Voronezh under 0.5 goals 60.7% 63.2% 32.5% 1.94× 1.58
Fakel Voronezh over 0.5 goals 39.3% 36.8% 67.5% 0.55× 2.71
Fakel Voronezh over 1.5 goals 9.0% 7.7% 29.9% 0.26× 13.04
Fakel Voronezh over 2.5 goals 1.4% 2.5% 11.2% 0.22× 39.96
Fakel Voronezh over 3.5 goals 0.2% 2.5% 3.0% 0.82× 40.02
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fakel Voronezh under 1.5 in 1st half 98.3% 96.3% — — 1.04
Fakel Voronezh under 0.5 in 1st half 81.9% 83.1% — — 1.20
Fakel Voronezh over 0.5 in 1st half 18.1% 16.9% — — 5.92
Fakel Voronezh over 1.5 in 1st half 1.7% 3.7% — — 27.11
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fakel Voronezh scores equally in both 64.4% 64.7% — — 1.55
Fakel Voronezh scores more in 2nd half 21.8% 22.1% — — 4.53
Fakel Voronezh scores more in 1st half 13.8% 12.0% — — 8.33
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan (away no bet) 61.1% 61.9% 61.1% 1.01× 1.62
Draw (away no bet) 38.9% 38.1% 38.9% 0.98× 2.62
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fakel Voronezh even goals 68.4% 65.0% 53.3% 1.22× 1.54
Fakel Voronezh odd goals 31.6% 35.0% 46.7% 0.75× 2.86
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 95.8% 95.9% — — 1.04
Both halves over 1.5 goals 4.2% 4.1% — — 24.63
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 61.6% 57.7% — — 1.73
Not both halves under 1.5 38.4% 42.3% — — 2.36
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 35.9% 36.6% — — 2.74
Rubin Kazan to score 2+ in a row 30.4% 29.1% — — 3.43
Either team to score 3+ in a row 10.7% 12.0% — — 8.33
Rubin Kazan to score 3+ in a row 9.9% 5.6% — — 17.77
Fakel Voronezh to score 2+ in a row 6.6% 5.5% — — 18.02
Fakel Voronezh to score 3+ in a row 0.9% 2.5% — — 40.21
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fakel Voronezh corners (+3.5) 88.5% 84.5% — — 1.18
Rubin Kazan corners (+3.5) 82.6% 79.8% — — 1.25
Fakel Voronezh corners (+2.5) 81.5% 79.8% — — 1.25
Rubin Kazan corners (+2.5) 73.9% 70.7% — — 1.41
Fakel Voronezh corners (+1.5) 72.3% 70.7% — — 1.41
Rubin Kazan corners (+1.5) 63.2% 61.8% — — 1.62
Fakel Voronezh corners (-1.5) 36.8% 38.2% — — 2.62
Rubin Kazan corners (-1.5) 27.7% 29.3% — — 3.42
Fakel Voronezh corners (-2.5) 26.1% 29.3% — — 3.42
Rubin Kazan corners (-2.5) 18.5% 20.2% — — 4.94
Fakel Voronezh corners (-3.5) 17.4% 20.2% — — 4.94
Rubin Kazan corners (-3.5) 11.6% 15.5% — — 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 51.6% 45.2% — — 2.21
9-11 corners 29.3% 31.2% — — 3.21
12+ corners 19.0% 22.6% — — 4.43
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 87.2% 83.1% — — 1.20
Under 11.5 corners 81.0% 80.7% — — 1.24
Under 10.5 corners 72.9% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 9.5 corners 63.0% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 7.5 corners 60.4% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 8.5 corners 51.6% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 8.5 corners 48.4% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 7.5 corners 39.6% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 9.5 corners 37.0% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 10.5 corners 27.1% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 11.5 corners 19.0% 19.3% — — 5.18
Over 12.5 corners 12.8% 16.9% — — 5.91
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 2.00
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 20.8% 20.1% 10.8% 1.86× 4.98
0-0 19.5% 13.9% 7.3% 1.89× 7.22
2-0 13.2% 11.5% 7.7% 1.49× 8.72
1-1 12.1% 11.5% 15.0% 0.76× 8.72
0-1 7.9% 7.4% 7.7% 0.96× 13.51
2-1 6.6% 7.4% 8.9% 0.83× 13.51
3-0 5.3% 7.4% 4.1% 1.82× 13.51
0-2 2.3% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.31
0-3 0.4% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.32
0-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.4% 4.22× 58.32
1-2 2.7% 1.7% 6.7% 0.26× 58.30
1-3 0.5% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.32
1-4 0.1% 1.7% 1.0% 1.69× 58.32
2-2 1.6% 1.7% 5.1% 0.34× 58.31
2-3 0.3% 1.7% 2.6% 0.65× 58.32
2-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.8% 2.11× 58.32
3-1 2.6% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.30
3-2 0.7% 1.7% 2.2% 0.77× 58.32
3-3 0.1% 1.7% 1.2% 1.41× 58.32
3-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.4% 4.22× 58.32
4-0 1.6% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.31
4-1 0.8% 1.7% 1.4% 1.21× 58.31
4-2 0.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2.11× 58.32
4-3 0.0% 1.7% 0.4% 4.22× 58.32
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 8.44× 58.32
Any other score 0.8% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan (2nd half DNB) 74.0% 71.4% — — 1.40
Fakel Voronezh (2nd half DNB) 26.0% 28.6% — — 3.49
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan leading at HT (DNB) 75.5% 74.8% — — 1.34
Fakel Voronezh leading at HT (DNB) 24.5% 25.2% — — 3.98
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan or draw (1X) 85.8% 86.5% 72.0% 1.20× 1.16
Rubin Kazan or Fakel Voronezh (12) 66.6% 69.6% 72.0% 0.97× 1.44
Fakel Voronezh or draw (X2) 47.6% 48.5% 55.9% 0.87× 2.06
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan or draw at HT 88.9% 88.0% — — 1.14
Fakel Voronezh or draw at HT 65.6% 67.1% — — 1.49
Rubin Kazan or Fakel Voronezh at HT 45.5% 51.9% — — 1.93
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan or draw (1UP) 85.8% 91.7% — — 1.09
Fakel Voronezh or draw (1UP) 47.6% 53.4% — — 1.87
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan or draw in 2nd half 86.0% 88.5% — — 1.13
Fakel Voronezh or draw in 2nd half 60.2% 63.9% — — 1.56
Rubin Kazan or Fakel Voronezh in 2nd half 53.7% 54.2% — — 1.84
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 74.4% 72.6% — — 1.38
Neither half drawn 25.6% 27.4% — — 3.65
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan (DNB) 78.7% 74.8% 61.1% 1.22× 1.34
Fakel Voronezh (DNB) 21.3% 25.2% 38.9% 0.65× 3.97
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan to score first 56.9% 62.2% — — 1.61
Fakel Voronezh to score first 23.6% 23.0% — — 4.35
No goal scored 19.5% 18.7% — — 5.34
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 71.4% 62.5% 47.2% 1.32× 1.60
Both teams to score 28.6% 37.5% 52.8% 0.71× 2.66
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 63.6% 50.5% 37.0% 1.37× 1.98
Both score & over 2.5 16.5% 21.5% 38.0% 0.57× 4.64
Both score & under 2.5 12.1% 12.4% 15.0% 0.82× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 7.7% 8.3% 10.4% 0.80× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 97.0% 91.6% 86.8% 1.06× 1.09
Both teams to score 2+ 3.0% 8.4% 13.2% 0.63× 11.96
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 86.8% 87.1% — — 1.15
Both teams to score in 2nd half 13.2% 12.9% — — 7.75
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 80.2% 80.7% — — 1.24
Both score 2nd half only 12.3% 10.7% — — 9.31
Both score 1st half only 6.6% 6.8% — — 14.74
Both score in both halves 0.9% 4.8% — — 20.90
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 92.5% 92.9% — — 1.08
Both teams to score by HT 7.5% 7.1% — — 14.00
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 67.4% 66.1% — — 1.51
A goal in each half 32.6% 33.9% — — 2.95
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-1 goals 48.2% 47.2% 25.4% 1.86× 2.12
2-3 goals 42.5% 42.1% 48.0% 0.88× 2.37
4-6 goals 9.1% 7.6% 25.4% 0.30× 13.08
7+ goals 0.2% 1.8% 1.6% 1.13× 54.49
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fakel Voronezh to score exactly 0 60.7% 50.3% 32.5% 1.55× 1.99
Fakel Voronezh to score exactly 1 30.3% 33.8% 37.8% 0.89× 2.96
Fakel Voronezh to score exactly 2 7.6% 8.5% 18.9% 0.45× 11.70
Fakel Voronezh to score 3+ 1.4% 4.6% 11.2% 0.41× 21.97
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan to score exactly 1 36.1% 35.6% 35.2% 1.01× 2.81
Rubin Kazan to score exactly 0 30.1% 32.5% 22.0% 1.48× 3.07
Rubin Kazan to score exactly 2 21.7% 23.3% 24.6% 0.95× 4.29
Rubin Kazan to score 3+ 12.1% 14.3% 18.7% 0.77× 6.99
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 54.5% 48.1% — — 2.08
Rubin Kazan leading at HT 34.4% 32.9% — — 3.04
Fakel Voronezh leading at HT 11.1% 12.0% — — 8.30
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan -1: 2 47.6% 46.9% — — 2.13
Rubin Kazan -1: X 28.0% 26.5% — — 3.77
Rubin Kazan -1: 1 24.4% 23.5% — — 4.25
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fakel Voronezh (0:1) 47.6% 46.2% 55.9% 0.83× 2.17
Draw (0:1) 28.0% 27.0% 21.7% 1.24× 3.70
Rubin Kazan (0:1) 24.4% 24.2% 22.6% 1.07× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fakel Voronezh (0:2) 75.6% 79.3% 77.4% 1.02× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 16.0% 15.3% 12.4% 1.23× 6.55
Rubin Kazan (0:2) 8.4% 7.7% 10.4% 0.74× 13.03
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fakel Voronezh (0:3) 91.6% 92.7% 89.6% 1.03× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 6.1% 5.8% 5.9% 0.98× 17.23
Rubin Kazan (0:3) 2.3% 2.4% 4.7% 0.51× 42.11
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fakel Voronezh (0:4) 97.7% 98.1% 95.3% 1.03× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.8% 1.2% 3.7% 0.33× 81.91
Rubin Kazan (0:4) 0.5% 1.2% 1.2% 1.00× 82.05
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan (1:0) 85.8% 86.0% 72.0% 1.20× 1.16
Draw (1:0) 11.0% 12.7% 16.9% 0.75× 7.88
Fakel Voronezh (1:0) 3.3% 3.3% 11.4% 0.29× 30.59
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan (2:0) 96.7% 96.8% 88.6% 1.09× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 2.8% 2.3% 7.3% 0.31× 43.66
Fakel Voronezh (2:0) 0.5% 2.3% 4.3% 0.53× 43.80
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 39.7% 39.7% — — 2.52
Halves equal 35.4% 35.4% — — 2.83
1st half highest scoring 25.0% 24.5% — — 4.08
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan clean sheet 60.7% 63.6% 32.5% 1.96× 1.57
Rubin Kazan to concede 39.3% 36.4% 67.5% 0.54× 2.75
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan clean sheet in 1st half 81.9% 83.6% — — 1.20
Rubin Kazan to concede in 1st half 18.1% 16.4% — — 6.08
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan clean sheet in 2nd half 74.1% 72.7% — — 1.38
Rubin Kazan to concede in 2nd half 25.9% 27.3% — — 3.66
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan under 6.5 corners 85.3% 86.2% — — 1.16
Rubin Kazan under 5.5 corners 75.2% 76.5% — — 1.31
Rubin Kazan over 2.5 corners 73.7% 71.9% — — 1.39
Rubin Kazan under 4.5 corners 61.3% 62.3% — — 1.61
Rubin Kazan over 3.5 corners 55.9% 57.5% — — 1.74
Rubin Kazan under 3.5 corners 44.1% 42.5% — — 2.35
Rubin Kazan over 4.5 corners 38.7% 37.8% — — 2.65
Rubin Kazan under 2.5 corners 26.3% 28.1% — — 3.55
Rubin Kazan over 5.5 corners 24.8% 23.5% — — 4.26
Rubin Kazan over 6.5 corners 14.7% 13.8% — — 7.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan under 3.5 goals 96.6% 96.4% 92.7% 1.04× 1.04
Rubin Kazan under 2.5 goals 87.9% 87.3% 81.3% 1.07× 1.15
Rubin Kazan over 0.5 goals 69.9% 68.0% 78.0% 0.87× 1.47
Rubin Kazan under 1.5 goals 66.3% 68.0% 56.9% 1.19× 1.47
Rubin Kazan over 1.5 goals 33.7% 32.0% 43.1% 0.74× 3.12
Rubin Kazan under 0.5 goals 30.1% 32.0% 22.0% 1.46× 3.12
Rubin Kazan over 2.5 goals 12.1% 12.7% 18.7% 0.68× 7.85
Rubin Kazan over 3.5 goals 3.4% 3.6% 7.3% 0.50× 27.51
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan under 1.5 in 1st half 90.5% 94.6% — — 1.06
Rubin Kazan under 0.5 in 1st half 59.7% 56.9% — — 1.76
Rubin Kazan over 0.5 in 1st half 40.3% 43.1% — — 2.32
Rubin Kazan over 1.5 in 1st half 9.5% 5.4% — — 18.41
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan scores equally in both 41.7% 42.2% — — 2.37
Rubin Kazan scores more in 2nd half 34.5% 33.2% — — 3.01
Rubin Kazan scores more in 1st half 23.8% 21.3% — — 4.70
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 70.1% 66.7% 50.0% 1.33× 1.50
Fakel Voronezh (home no bet) 29.9% 33.3% 50.0% 0.67× 3.00
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan even goals 54.5% 50.7% 50.6% 1.00× 1.97
Rubin Kazan odd goals 45.5% 49.3% 49.4% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 49.1% 49.2% — — 2.03
HT 1-0 25.0% 28.2% — — 3.55
HT 0-1 9.6% 6.9% — — 14.44
HT 2-0 6.5% 6.9% — — 14.48
HT 1-1 5.2% 6.9% — — 14.50
Any other HT score 1.7% 2.4% — — 42.19
HT 2-1 1.3% 2.4% — — 42.21
HT 0-2 1.0% 2.4% — — 42.23
HT 1-2 0.5% 2.4% — — 42.26
HT 2-2 0.1% 2.4% — — 42.29
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan at HT / Rubin Kazan at FT 30.1% 32.1% — — 3.12
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 26.4% 27.3% — — 3.66
Draw at HT / Rubin Kazan at FT 21.0% 21.6% — — 4.63
Draw at HT / Fakel Voronezh at FT 7.1% 6.0% — — 16.62
Fakel Voronezh at HT / Fakel Voronezh at FT 6.6% 6.0% — — 16.63
Rubin Kazan at HT / Draw at FT 3.7% 3.5% — — 28.65
Fakel Voronezh at HT / Draw at FT 3.3% 3.5% — — 28.67
Fakel Voronezh at HT / Rubin Kazan at FT 1.2% 3.5% — — 28.74
Rubin Kazan at HT / Fakel Voronezh at FT 0.5% 3.5% — — 28.77
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan to score last 57.1% 56.4% — — 1.77
Fakel Voronezh to score last 23.4% 25.8% — — 3.88
No goal scored 19.5% 14.7% — — 6.78
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 80.5% 87.3% — — 1.15
Rubin Kazan to lead by 1 at any time 60.9% 61.3% — — 1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 32.0% 29.8% — — 3.35
Rubin Kazan to lead by 2 at any time 27.3% 25.5% — — 3.92
Fakel Voronezh to lead by 1 at any time 25.0% 19.7% — — 5.08
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 9.9% 6.8% — — 14.80
Rubin Kazan to lead by 3 at any time 9.2% 6.7% — — 14.83
Fakel Voronezh to lead by 2 at any time 4.7% 1.7% — — 60.19
Fakel Voronezh to lead by 3 at any time 0.7% 1.6% — — 64.05
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fakel Voronezh most corners 48.9% 47.0% — — 2.13
Rubin Kazan most corners 38.9% 39.3% — — 2.54
Corners level 12.2% 10.4% — — 9.58
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 79.7% 78.7% 87.6% 0.90× 1.27
1-4 goals 77.6% 78.7% 79.7% 0.99× 1.27
1-3 goals 71.2% 72.4% 66.1% 1.10× 1.38
1-2 goals 56.3% 59.1% 44.7% 1.32× 1.69
2-6 goals 51.7% 53.2% 73.2% 0.73× 1.88
2-5 goals 51.0% 53.2% 69.5% 0.76× 1.88
2-4 goals 48.9% 48.5% 61.6% 0.79× 2.06
2-3 goals 42.5% 43.6% 48.0% 0.91× 2.29
3-6 goals 24.1% 24.5% 46.7% 0.52× 4.08
3-5 goals 23.5% 24.5% 43.1% 0.57× 4.08
3-4 goals 21.3% 24.5% 35.2% 0.70× 4.09
4-6 goals 9.1% 8.9% 25.4% 0.35× 11.25
4-5 goals 8.5% 8.9% 21.7% 0.41× 11.26
5-6 goals 2.8% 2.6% 11.8% 0.22× 39.10
7+ goals 0.2% 2.6% 1.6% 1.57× 39.22
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan never behind 55.6% 62.3% — — 1.61
Fakel Voronezh never behind 19.7% 18.6% — — 5.36
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 45.9% 50.9% 48.8% 1.04× 1.97
Even number of goals 54.1% 49.1% 51.2% 0.96× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 62.4% 59.9% — — 1.67
Odd goals in 1st half 37.6% 40.1% — — 2.49
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 57.8% 60.7% — — 1.65
Odd goals in 2nd half 42.2% 39.3% — — 2.54
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 99.2% 95.4% 94.7% 1.01× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 97.0% 95.4% 86.8% 1.10× 1.05
Under 3.5 goals 90.7% 92.3% 73.2% 1.26× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 80.5% 82.3% 92.7% 0.89× 1.22
Under 2.5 goals 75.7% 77.3% 51.8% 1.49× 1.29
Over 1.5 goals 51.8% 52.5% 74.6% 0.70× 1.91
Under 1.5 goals 48.2% 47.5% 25.4% 1.87× 2.11
Over 2.5 goals 24.3% 22.7% 48.2% 0.47× 4.40
Under 0.5 goals 19.5% 17.7% 7.3% 2.42× 5.65
Over 3.5 goals 9.3% 7.7% 26.8% 0.29× 12.93
Over 4.5 goals 3.0% 4.6% 13.2% 0.35× 21.88
Over 5.5 goals 0.8% 4.6% 5.3% 0.86× 21.91
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.8% 97.2% 98.3% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 99.2% 97.2% 94.3% 1.03× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 96.8% 97.2% 84.7% 1.15× 1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 89.1% 86.7% 65.9% 1.32× 1.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 66.5% 67.4% 34.5% 1.95× 1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 33.5% 32.6% 65.5% 0.50× 3.07
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 10.9% 13.3% 34.1% 0.39× 7.54
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 3.2% 2.8% 15.3% 0.18× 35.57
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 0.8% 2.8% 5.7% 0.49× 35.63
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.2% 2.8% 1.7% 1.66× 35.65
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 96.4% 97.1% — — 1.03
Under 1.5 in 1st half 83.7% 85.8% — — 1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half 50.9% 54.4% — — 1.84
Under 0.5 in 1st half 49.1% 45.6% — — 2.19
Over 1.5 in 1st half 16.3% 14.2% — — 7.06
Over 2.5 in 1st half 3.6% 2.9% — — 33.97
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 92.3% 90.0% — — 1.11
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 73.8% 77.6% — — 1.29
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 62.2% 61.7% — — 1.62
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 37.8% 38.3% — — 2.61
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 26.2% 22.4% — — 4.47
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 7.7% 10.0% — — 10.01
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fakel Voronezh not to score in both halves 95.3% 95.5% — — 1.05
Rubin Kazan not to score in both halves 80.0% 84.2% — — 1.19
Rubin Kazan to score in both halves 20.0% 15.8% — — 6.33
Fakel Voronezh to score in both halves 4.7% 4.5% — — 22.43
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Only Rubin Kazan scores 41.2% 46.5% 25.4% 1.83× 2.15
Both teams score 28.6% 26.0% 52.8% 0.49× 3.84
Neither team scores 19.5% 16.0% 7.3% 2.19× 6.24
Only Fakel Voronezh scores 10.6% 11.0% 14.8% 0.74× 9.07
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 1 goals 28.7% 24.9% 18.3% 1.36× 4.02
Exactly 2 goals 27.6% 24.9% 26.6% 0.93× 4.02
Exactly 0 goals 19.5% 17.5% 7.3% 2.39× 5.73
Exactly 3 goals 14.9% 12.1% 21.5% 0.56× 8.24
Exactly 4 goals 6.3% 7.6% 13.8% 0.55× 13.14
Exactly 5 goals 2.2% 4.5% 8.1% 0.55× 22.41
6 or more goals 0.8% 4.5% 5.3% 0.84× 22.43
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 49.1% 49.2% — — 2.03
1 goal in 1st half 34.6% 35.9% — — 2.79
2 goals in 1st half 12.7% 10.7% — — 9.31
3+ goals in 1st half 3.6% 2.9% — — 33.97
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 2nd half 37.8% 39.2% — — 2.55
1 goal in 2nd half 36.0% 38.9% — — 2.57
2+ goals in 2nd half 26.2% 29.2% — — 3.43
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fakel Voronezh not to win both halves 98.4% 97.2% — — 1.03
Rubin Kazan not to win both halves 86.1% 87.9% — — 1.14
Rubin Kazan to win both halves 13.9% 12.1% — — 8.27
Fakel Voronezh to win both halves 1.6% 2.8% — — 36.13
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fakel Voronezh to win neither half 76.5% 79.7% — — 1.25
Rubin Kazan to win either half 60.3% 65.0% — — 1.54
Rubin Kazan to win neither half 39.7% 35.0% — — 2.86
Fakel Voronezh to win either half 23.5% 20.3% — — 4.93
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fakel Voronezh not to win to nil 89.4% 88.1% 85.2% 1.03× 1.14
Rubin Kazan not to win to nil 58.8% 59.3% 74.6% 0.79× 1.69
Rubin Kazan to win to nil 41.2% 40.7% 25.4% 1.60× 2.46
Fakel Voronezh to win to nil 10.6% 11.9% 14.8% 0.80× 8.42
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan by 1 28.0% 27.9% 21.7% 1.28× 3.59
Draw 33.4% 27.7% 28.0% 0.99× 3.61
Rubin Kazan by 2 16.0% 17.0% 12.4% 1.37× 5.87
Fakel Voronezh by 1 11.0% 11.8% 16.9% 0.70× 8.51
Rubin Kazan by 3+ 8.4% 7.2% 10.4% 0.69× 13.90
Fakel Voronezh by 2 2.8% 2.7% 7.3% 0.37× 36.82
Fakel Voronezh by 3+ 0.5% 2.7% 4.3% 0.64× 36.89
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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