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Rudeš v Slaven Belupo Koprivnica — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · CRO-HNL · 2627

CRO-HNL results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Rudeš win
39.1%
model 39.7%
Draw
28.2%
model 27.4%
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica win
32.7%
model 32.9%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (7,703 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.4%
  2. 2-1 8.7%
  3. 1-2 7.9%
  4. 2-2 6.7%
  5. 0-0 6.1%

Goals

Over 2.562.4% Under 2.537.6%
BTTS yes66.0% BTTS no34.0%
Rudeš 1+81.6% Rudeš 2+50.4%
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica 1+78.3% Slaven Belupo Koprivnica 2+45.2%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.53. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
25/100
Data quality
30/100
Model agreement
90%
★ Best pick
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)
Over/Under (whole line) · usually 39%
52.0% fair odds 1.92
strong signal · 7157 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Rudeš (2:0)
Handicap 2:0 · usually 81%
83.8% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 4439 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Rudeš.

Risk factors

  • The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.90).
  • Data quality is 30/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • Rudeš have only 1 matches on record.
  • Slaven Belupo Koprivnica have only 1 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Rudeš have an estimated 39.1% win probability, against 32.7% for Slaven Belupo Koprivnica and 28.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.69 for Rudeš and 1.53 for Slaven Belupo Koprivnica.

Why Rudeš

Nothing in the data singles out Rudeš.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.2%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.69 to 1.53.

Why Slaven Belupo Koprivnica can win

Slaven Belupo Koprivnica carry the stronger rating, 1514 Elo against 1469. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Slaven Belupo Koprivnica average 1.35 xG a match.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Rudeš, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Slaven Belupo Koprivnica, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Rudeš: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Slaven Belupo Koprivnica: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-11 15:19 · team_stats 2026-09-11 06:03 · availability 2026-09-11 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·

Rudeš are the model's most likely outcome at 39.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.4%. Confidence 25/100, data quality 30/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.69–1.53 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.69–1.98 1-1 10% 71% 72%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica to win 43.3% 42.9% 27.0% 1.59× 2.33
Rudeš to win 31.8% 30.6% 47.4% 0.65× 3.27
Draw 24.9% 24.6% 26.1% 0.94× 4.07
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica & both teams score 29.1% 25.5% 13.3% 1.92× 3.93
Rudeš & both teams score 22.2% 21.8% 21.8% 1.00× 4.60
Draw & both teams score 20.7% 21.8% 18.5% 1.18× 4.60
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica & not both score 14.2% 13.3% 14.2% 0.93× 7.54
Rudeš & not both score 9.6% 8.4% 26.1% 0.32× 11.96
Draw & not both score 4.3% 4.9% 8.1% 0.61× 20.35
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica & over 1.5 39.9% 34.7% 24.2% 1.43× 2.88
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica & over 2.5 34.9% 31.1% 16.6% 1.87× 3.22
Rudeš & over 1.5 29.2% 25.9% 39.3% 0.66× 3.85
Rudeš & over 2.5 25.5% 25.9% 28.4% 0.91× 3.86
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica & over 3.5 23.2% 21.6% 10.4% 2.07× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 20.7% 21.6% 18.5% 1.17× 4.63
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica & under 3.5 20.1% 21.6% 17.1% 1.27× 4.63
Rudeš & over 3.5 16.2% 18.0% 14.7% 1.22× 5.57
Rudeš & under 3.5 15.5% 18.0% 33.2% 0.54× 5.57
Draw & under 2.5 14.5% 12.9% 19.4% 0.66× 7.78
Draw & under 3.5 14.5% 12.9% 19.4% 0.66× 7.78
Draw & over 2.5 10.4% 12.9% 7.1% 1.81× 7.78
Draw & over 3.5 10.4% 12.9% 7.1% 1.81× 7.78
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica & under 2.5 8.4% 8.0% 10.9% 0.73× 12.57
Rudeš & under 2.5 6.3% 8.0% 19.4% 0.41× 12.57
Draw & under 1.5 4.3% 4.9% 8.1% 0.60× 20.58
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica & under 1.5 3.4% 4.9% 3.3% 1.46× 20.58
Rudeš & under 1.5 2.6% 4.9% 8.5% 0.57× 20.58
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica (1UP) 63.6% 63.2% 1.58
Rudeš (1UP) 54.2% 52.9% 1.89
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica (2UP) 43.3% 47.7% 2.10
Rudeš (2UP) 31.8% 30.8% 3.25
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica to win 2nd half 40.4% 41.0% 2.44
2nd half drawn 30.5% 34.4% 2.90
Rudeš to win 2nd half 29.1% 26.5% 3.78
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica over 0.5 in 2nd half 69.5% 71.0% 1.41
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica under 1.5 in 2nd half 66.8% 70.8% 1.41
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica over 1.5 in 2nd half 33.2% 29.2% 3.42
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica under 0.5 in 2nd half 30.5% 29.0% 3.45
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rudeš under 1.5 in 2nd half 75.0% 73.8% 1.36
Rudeš over 0.5 in 2nd half 61.8% 62.6% 1.60
Rudeš under 0.5 in 2nd half 38.2% 37.4% 2.67
Rudeš over 1.5 in 2nd half 25.0% 26.2% 3.82
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica (+2.5) 93.2% 92.1% 90.0% 1.02× 1.09
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica (+1.5) 83.4% 82.6% 72.5% 1.14× 1.21
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica (+0.5) 68.2% 68.7% 52.6% 1.31× 1.46
Rudeš (+0.5) 56.7% 57.0% 73.0% 0.78× 1.76
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica (-0.5) 43.3% 43.0% 27.0% 1.59× 2.32
Rudeš (-0.5) 31.8% 31.3% 47.4% 0.66× 3.20
Rudeš (-1.5) 16.6% 17.4% 27.5% 0.63× 5.75
Rudeš (-2.5) 6.8% 7.9% 10.0% 0.79× 12.70
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica to concede 81.5% 81.4% 78.2% 1.04× 1.23
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica clean sheet 18.5% 18.6% 21.8% 0.85× 5.37
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica clean sheet in 1st half 48.4% 50.7% 1.97
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica to concede in 1st half 51.6% 49.3% 2.03
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica to concede in 2nd half 61.8% 60.2% 1.66
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica clean sheet in 2nd half 38.2% 39.8% 2.51
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica over 0.5 goals 86.1% 87.9% 66.4% 1.32× 1.14
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica under 3.5 goals 86.1% 87.9% 94.8% 0.93× 1.14
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica under 2.5 goals 68.3% 67.9% 87.7% 0.77× 1.47
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica over 1.5 goals 58.8% 58.9% 34.6% 1.70× 1.70
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica under 1.5 goals 41.2% 41.1% 65.4% 0.63× 2.44
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica over 2.5 goals 31.7% 32.1% 12.3% 2.61× 3.11
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica under 0.5 goals 13.9% 12.1% 33.6% 0.36× 8.25
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica over 3.5 goals 13.9% 12.1% 5.2% 2.32× 8.25
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica under 1.5 in 1st half 81.2% 82.8% 1.21
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica over 0.5 in 1st half 54.7% 55.8% 1.79
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica under 0.5 in 1st half 45.3% 44.2% 2.26
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica over 1.5 in 1st half 18.8% 17.2% 5.83
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica scores more in 2nd half 45.2% 48.3% 2.07
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica scores equally in both 30.2% 34.0% 2.94
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica scores more in 1st half 24.6% 22.5% 4.45
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rudeš (away no bet) 56.0% 57.4% 64.5% 0.89× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 44.0% 42.6% 35.5% 1.20× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica even goals 51.0% 52.8% 59.2% 0.89× 1.90
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica odd goals 49.0% 47.2% 40.8% 1.16× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 71.7% 77.0% 1.30
Both halves over 1.5 goals 28.3% 23.0% 4.35
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 80.6% 77.3% 1.29
Both halves under 1.5 goals 19.4% 22.7% 4.40
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 70.7% 71.8% 1.39
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica to score 2+ in a row 46.6% 45.8% 2.18
Rudeš to score 2+ in a row 37.3% 36.5% 2.74
Either team to score 3+ in a row 30.6% 29.0% 3.45
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica to score 3+ in a row 18.9% 16.3% 6.12
Rudeš to score 3+ in a row 12.6% 12.2% 8.23
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 10.3% 11.4% 11.8% 0.96× 8.80
1-2 8.4% 7.4% 5.2% 1.42× 13.53
2-1 7.2% 7.4% 10.9% 0.68× 13.53
2-2 7.1% 7.4% 7.1% 1.04× 13.53
Any other score 7.8% 7.4% 4.3% 1.73× 13.53
0-2 5.0% 7.4% 8.1% 0.92× 13.53
1-3 5.6% 7.4% 5.2% 1.42× 13.53
0-0 4.3% 1.7% 8.1% 0.22× 57.66
0-1 3.4% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 57.66
0-3 3.3% 1.7% 1.9% 0.91× 57.66
0-4 1.6% 1.7% 1.4% 1.22× 57.67
1-0 2.6% 1.7% 8.5% 0.20× 57.67
1-4 2.8% 1.7% 1.9% 0.91× 57.67
2-0 3.7% 1.7% 11.4% 0.15× 57.66
2-3 4.7% 1.7% 0.9% 1.83× 57.66
2-4 2.3% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 57.67
3-0 2.1% 1.7% 3.8% 0.46× 57.67
3-1 4.1% 1.7% 5.2% 0.33× 57.66
3-2 4.0% 1.7% 1.9% 0.91× 57.66
3-3 2.6% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 57.67
3-4 1.3% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 57.67
4-0 0.9% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 57.68
4-1 1.7% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 57.67
4-2 1.7% 1.7% 2.4% 0.73× 57.67
4-3 1.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 57.67
4-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 57.68
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica (2nd half DNB) 58.1% 60.6% 1.65
Rudeš (2nd half DNB) 41.9% 39.4% 2.54
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica leading at HT (DNB) 53.0% 56.1% 1.78
Rudeš leading at HT (DNB) 47.0% 43.9% 2.28
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rudeš or Slaven Belupo Koprivnica (12) 75.1% 75.4% 73.9% 1.02× 1.33
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica or draw (X2) 68.2% 69.4% 52.6% 1.32× 1.44
Rudeš or draw (1X) 56.7% 57.1% 73.0% 0.78× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica or draw at HT 70.4% 74.2% 1.35
Rudeš or draw at HT 66.6% 66.3% 1.51
Rudeš or Slaven Belupo Koprivnica at HT 62.9% 62.0% 1.61
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica or draw (1UP) 68.2% 76.1% 1.32
Rudeš or draw (1UP) 56.7% 62.7% 1.60
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica or draw in 2nd half 70.9% 73.5% 1.36
Rudeš or Slaven Belupo Koprivnica in 2nd half 69.5% 65.6% 1.53
Rudeš or draw in 2nd half 59.6% 59.0% 1.70
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 54.3% 50.0% 2.00
Neither half drawn 45.7% 50.0% 2.00
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica (DNB) 57.7% 58.3% 36.3% 1.61× 1.72
Rudeš (DNB) 42.3% 41.7% 63.7% 0.65× 2.40
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica to score first 51.6% 53.8% 1.86
Rudeš to score first 44.1% 41.9% 2.39
No goal scored 4.3% 4.3% 23.25
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 71.9% 62.8% 52.6% 1.19× 1.59
Not both teams to score 28.1% 37.2% 47.4% 0.78× 2.69
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 61.7% 50.1% 41.2% 1.21× 2.00
Not both score & under 2.5 18.9% 21.4% 37.4% 0.57× 4.68
Both score & under 2.5 10.3% 12.3% 11.8% 1.03× 8.16
Not both score & over 2.5 9.2% 8.4% 10.4% 0.80× 11.93
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 70.4% 79.9% 88.2% 0.91× 1.25
Both teams to score 2+ 29.6% 20.1% 11.8% 1.70× 4.97
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 56.5% 66.1% 1.51
Both teams to score in 2nd half 43.5% 33.9% 2.95
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 40.1% 49.6% 2.02
Both score 2nd half only 31.4% 26.4% 3.78
Both score 1st half only 16.4% 15.6% 6.41
Both score in both halves 12.1% 10.7% 9.33
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 71.5% 79.7% 1.25
Both teams to score by HT 28.5% 20.3% 4.93
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 69.8% 67.0% 1.49
A half without a goal 30.2% 33.0% 3.03
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
4-6 goals 42.0% 41.9% 29.4% 1.43× 2.39
2-3 goals 39.9% 35.0% 50.2% 0.70× 2.86
0-1 goals 10.2% 17.1% 19.0% 0.90× 5.85
7+ goals 7.9% 7.6% 2.4% 3.22× 13.10
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica to score 3+ 31.7% 33.7% 12.3% 2.73× 2.97
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica to score exactly 1 27.4% 27.6% 32.2% 0.86× 3.62
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica to score exactly 2 27.1% 27.6% 22.7% 1.21× 3.62
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica to score exactly 0 13.9% 13.0% 33.6% 0.39× 7.69
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rudeš to score exactly 1 31.2% 32.6% 31.8% 1.03× 3.07
Rudeš to score exactly 2 26.3% 26.2% 29.4% 0.89× 3.82
Rudeš to score 3+ 24.0% 23.4% 18.0% 1.30× 4.28
Rudeš to score exactly 0 18.5% 19.2% 21.8% 0.88× 5.22
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 37.1% 38.0% 2.63
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica leading at HT 33.4% 33.7% 2.96
Rudeš leading at HT 29.6% 25.8% 3.88
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica -1: 1 56.7% 56.7% 1.76
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica -1: 2 25.2% 26.6% 3.76
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica -1: X 18.0% 17.3% 5.80
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica (0:1) 68.2% 65.3% 52.6% 1.24× 1.53
Rudeš (0:1) 16.6% 17.7% 27.5% 0.65× 5.64
Draw (0:1) 15.2% 17.7% 20.4% 0.87× 5.64
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica (0:2) 83.4% 83.2% 72.5% 1.15× 1.20
Draw (0:2) 9.8% 7.7% 18.0% 0.43× 12.99
Rudeš (0:2) 6.8% 7.7% 10.0% 0.77× 13.01
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica (0:3) 93.2% 92.7% 90.0% 1.03× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.5% 2.4% 6.6% 0.36× 42.27
Rudeš (0:3) 2.3% 2.4% 3.8% 0.62× 42.36
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica (0:4) 97.7% 98.1% 96.2% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.6% 1.2% 2.8% 0.43× 81.66
Rudeš (0:4) 0.7% 1.2% 1.4% 0.86× 81.76
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rudeš (1:0) 56.7% 58.4% 73.0% 0.80× 1.71
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica (1:0) 25.2% 25.1% 19.0% 1.33× 3.98
Draw (1:0) 18.0% 17.1% 8.5% 2.00× 5.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rudeš (2:0) 74.8% 75.6% 81.0% 0.93× 1.32
Draw (2:0) 13.5% 10.4% 12.8% 0.81× 9.61
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica (2:0) 11.8% 10.4% 6.6% 1.57× 9.62
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 50.7% 50.3% 1.99
1st half highest scoring 26.0% 26.5% 3.78
Halves equal 23.3% 24.1% 4.15
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rudeš to concede 86.1% 86.3% 66.4% 1.30× 1.16
Rudeš clean sheet 13.9% 13.7% 33.6% 0.41× 7.32
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rudeš to concede in 1st half 54.7% 55.8% 1.79
Rudeš clean sheet in 1st half 45.3% 44.2% 2.26
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rudeš to concede in 2nd half 69.5% 68.6% 1.46
Rudeš clean sheet in 2nd half 30.5% 31.4% 3.18
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rudeš under 3.5 goals 90.9% 92.1% 91.5% 1.01× 1.09
Rudeš over 0.5 goals 81.5% 81.9% 78.2% 1.05× 1.22
Rudeš under 2.5 goals 76.0% 77.4% 82.0% 0.94× 1.29
Rudeš over 1.5 goals 50.3% 52.7% 46.9% 1.12× 1.90
Rudeš under 1.5 goals 49.7% 47.3% 53.1% 0.89× 2.12
Rudeš over 2.5 goals 24.0% 22.6% 18.0% 1.25× 4.43
Rudeš under 0.5 goals 18.5% 18.1% 21.8% 0.83× 5.53
Rudeš over 3.5 goals 9.1% 7.9% 8.5% 0.92× 12.69
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rudeš under 1.5 in 1st half 83.5% 84.3% 1.19
Rudeš under 0.5 in 1st half 48.4% 50.9% 1.97
Rudeš over 0.5 in 1st half 51.6% 49.1% 2.04
Rudeš over 1.5 in 1st half 16.5% 15.7% 6.37
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rudeš scores more in 2nd half 39.7% 37.7% 2.65
Rudeš scores equally in both 33.8% 32.9% 3.04
Rudeš scores more in 1st half 26.5% 28.0% 3.57
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica (home no bet) 63.5% 60.0% 50.9% 1.18× 1.67
Draw (home no bet) 36.5% 40.0% 49.1% 0.82× 2.50
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rudeš even goals 51.7% 50.4% 57.8% 0.87× 1.98
Rudeš odd goals 48.3% 49.6% 42.2% 1.18× 2.02
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 22.2% 24.2% 4.14
HT 0-1 17.1% 18.6% 5.36
HT 1-0 15.6% 18.6% 5.37
HT 1-1 12.9% 10.9% 9.15
Any other HT score 8.2% 7.1% 14.01
HT 0-2 6.9% 7.1% 14.03
HT 2-0 5.8% 7.1% 14.05
HT 1-2 5.0% 2.3% 43.34
HT 2-1 4.6% 2.3% 43.37
HT 2-2 1.8% 2.3% 43.57
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica at HT / Slaven Belupo Koprivnica at FT 25.2% 26.9% 3.72
Rudeš at HT / Rudeš at FT 19.2% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Slaven Belupo Koprivnica at FT 13.9% 12.7% 7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 13.3% 12.7% 7.89
Draw at HT / Rudeš at FT 9.9% 6.0% 16.59
Rudeš at HT / Draw at FT 6.2% 6.0% 16.70
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica at HT / Draw at FT 5.4% 6.0% 16.73
Rudeš at HT / Slaven Belupo Koprivnica at FT 4.1% 3.5% 28.76
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica at HT / Rudeš at FT 2.7% 3.5% 28.82
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica to score last 51.7% 51.9% 1.93
Rudeš to score last 44.0% 40.1% 2.49
No goal scored 4.3% 4.3% 23.25
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.7% 95.6% 1.05
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica to lead by 1 at any time 63.6% 61.4% 1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 59.0% 55.1% 1.81
Rudeš to lead by 1 at any time 54.2% 50.8% 1.97
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica to lead by 2 at any time 34.5% 29.4% 3.40
Rudeš to lead by 2 at any time 25.2% 25.4% 3.94
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 25.1% 25.4% 3.94
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica to lead by 3 at any time 15.5% 14.8% 6.74
Rudeš to lead by 3 at any time 9.6% 6.7% 14.99
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-6 goals 81.9% 83.3% 79.1% 1.05× 1.20
1-5 goals 79.3% 78.5% 87.2% 0.90× 1.27
2-5 goals 73.3% 72.3% 76.3% 0.95× 1.38
1-4 goals 65.1% 68.8% 80.6% 0.85× 1.45
3-6 goals 63.0% 63.2% 49.3% 1.28× 1.58
2-4 goals 59.2% 59.3% 69.7% 0.85× 1.69
3-5 goals 54.4% 53.4% 46.4% 1.15× 1.87
1-3 goals 45.9% 48.5% 61.1% 0.79× 2.06
4-6 goals 42.0% 43.6% 29.4% 1.48× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.3% 43.6% 39.8% 1.09× 2.30
2-3 goals 39.9% 39.3% 50.2% 0.78× 2.55
4-5 goals 33.4% 35.3% 26.5% 1.33× 2.83
1-2 goals 24.9% 24.8% 41.2% 0.60× 4.03
5-6 goals 22.7% 24.8% 10.0% 2.49× 4.04
7+ goals 7.9% 9.0% 2.4% 3.79× 11.15
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica never behind 41.5% 48.2% 2.08
Rudeš never behind 32.1% 35.5% 2.82
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 46.6% 51.0% 39.8% 1.28× 1.96
Even number of goals 53.5% 49.0% 60.2% 0.81× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.0% 51.7% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 47.0% 48.3% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.9% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.2% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.7% 95.4% 91.9% 1.04× 1.05
Over 1.5 goals 89.8% 87.5% 81.0% 1.08× 1.14
Under 5.5 goals 83.5% 82.2% 94.8% 0.87× 1.22
Over 2.5 goals 70.9% 72.4% 51.2% 1.41× 1.38
Under 4.5 goals 69.4% 66.0% 88.2% 0.75× 1.52
Under 3.5 goals 50.1% 53.0% 68.7% 0.77× 1.89
Over 3.5 goals 49.9% 47.0% 31.3% 1.50× 2.13
Over 4.5 goals 30.6% 34.0% 11.8% 2.87× 2.94
Under 2.5 goals 29.1% 27.6% 48.8% 0.57× 3.62
Over 5.5 goals 16.5% 17.8% 5.2% 3.42× 5.61
Under 1.5 goals 10.2% 12.5% 19.0% 0.66× 7.97
Under 0.5 goals 4.3% 4.6% 8.1% 0.57× 21.74
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 91.4% 92.4% 97.6% 0.95× 1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 87.4% 86.6% 73.0% 1.19× 1.16
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 80.8% 80.5% 94.4% 0.85× 1.24
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 63.1% 61.6% 39.1% 1.58× 1.62
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 62.1% 61.6% 85.3% 0.72× 1.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 37.9% 38.4% 14.7% 2.61× 2.61
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 36.9% 38.4% 60.9% 0.63× 2.61
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 19.2% 19.5% 5.6% 3.50× 5.12
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 12.6% 13.4% 27.0% 0.50× 7.47
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 8.6% 7.6% 2.4% 3.12× 13.15
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 80.5% 86.2% 1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half 77.8% 78.8% 1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half 54.9% 56.9% 1.76
Over 1.5 in 1st half 45.1% 43.1% 2.32
Under 0.5 in 1st half 22.2% 21.2% 4.73
Over 2.5 in 1st half 19.5% 13.9% 7.22
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 87.8% 85.4% 1.17
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 63.9% 61.7% 1.62
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 63.7% 61.7% 1.62
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 36.3% 38.3% 2.61
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 36.1% 38.3% 2.61
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 12.2% 14.6% 6.85
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rudeš not to score in both halves 68.1% 70.5% 1.42
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica not to score in both halves 62.0% 63.4% 1.58
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica to score in both halves 38.0% 36.6% 2.73
Rudeš to score in both halves 31.9% 29.5% 3.39
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 71.9% 66.4% 52.6% 1.26× 1.51
Only Slaven Belupo Koprivnica scores 14.2% 11.1% 14.2% 0.78× 9.01
Only Rudeš scores 9.6% 7.1% 26.1% 0.27× 14.03
Neither team scores 4.3% 4.6% 8.1% 0.57× 21.59
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 21.0% 22.4% 20.4% 1.10× 4.46
Exactly 4 goals 19.3% 17.6% 19.9% 0.88× 5.70
Exactly 2 goals 18.9% 17.6% 30.3% 0.58× 5.70
6 or more goals 16.5% 17.5% 5.2% 3.37× 5.70
Exactly 5 goals 14.1% 12.1% 7.1% 1.70× 8.30
Exactly 1 goals 6.0% 7.8% 11.4% 0.68× 12.86
Exactly 0 goals 4.3% 4.5% 8.1% 0.56× 22.23
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 32.7% 35.9% 2.79
2 goals in 1st half 25.5% 28.5% 3.51
No goals in 1st half 22.2% 21.7% 4.61
3+ goals in 1st half 19.5% 15.3% 6.53
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 63.9% 58.7% 1.70
1 goal in 2nd half 23.9% 23.1% 4.33
No goals in 2nd half 12.2% 14.4% 6.93
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rudeš not to win both halves 91.1% 93.9% 1.07
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica not to win both halves 86.2% 87.9% 1.14
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica to win both halves 13.8% 12.1% 8.24
Rudeš to win both halves 8.9% 6.1% 16.49
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica to win either half 60.0% 59.6% 1.68
Rudeš to win neither half 50.2% 54.8% 1.83
Rudeš to win either half 49.8% 45.2% 2.21
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica to win neither half 40.0% 40.4% 2.47
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rudeš not to win to nil 90.4% 92.1% 73.9% 1.25× 1.09
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica not to win to nil 85.8% 87.9% 85.8% 1.02× 1.14
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica to win to nil 14.2% 12.1% 14.2% 0.85× 8.28
Rudeš to win to nil 9.6% 7.9% 26.1% 0.30× 12.61
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 24.9% 24.2% 26.1% 0.93× 4.14
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica by 1 18.0% 16.9% 8.5% 1.98× 5.92
Rudeš by 1 15.2% 16.9% 20.4% 0.83× 5.92
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica by 2 13.5% 11.7% 12.8% 0.92× 8.53
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica by 3+ 11.8% 11.7% 6.6% 1.77× 8.53
Rudeš by 2 9.8% 7.3% 18.0% 0.40× 13.75
Rudeš by 3+ 6.8% 7.3% 10.0% 0.73× 13.77
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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