Səbail v Karvan — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 8 October 2026 · AZE-First Division · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 13.5%
- 2-1 8.8%
- 1-0 8.8%
- 0-0 8.2%
- 1-2 7.6%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 49.6% | Under 2.5 | 50.4% |
| BTTS yes | 55.1% | BTTS no | 44.9% |
| Səbail 1+ | 75.9% | Səbail 2+ | 41.6% |
| Karvan 1+ | 70.9% | Karvan 2+ | 35.0% |
Expected goals 1.42 – 1.24. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Səbail have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Karvan have allowed 1.35.
- At home Səbail average 1.35 xG a match.
Risk factors
- The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.85).
- Data quality is 20/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Səbail have only 0 matches on record.
- Karvan have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Səbail have an estimated 40.2% win probability, against 31.5% for Karvan and 28.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.42 for Səbail and 1.24 for Karvan.
Why Səbail
Səbail have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Karvan have allowed 1.35. At home Səbail average 1.35 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 28.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.42 to 1.24.
Why Karvan can win
Karvan have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Səbail have allowed 1.35. Away from home Karvan average 1.35 xG a match.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Səbail, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Karvan, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Səbail: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Karvan: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·
Səbail are the model's most likely outcome at 40.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.5%. Confidence 19/100, data quality 20/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.42–1.24 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.03–1.46 | 1-1 14% | 45% | 50% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.