Səbail v Mingəçevir — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 10 September 2026 · AZE-First Division · 2627

AZE-First Division results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

Səbail

12:30 UTC

Mingəçevir

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 9 Sep, 11:32 · 25h before kick-off

Səbail win

43.4%

model 44.4%

Draw

28.3%

model 27.4%

Mingəçevir win

28.3%

model 28.3%

432828

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (6,392 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.0%
2-1 9.2%
1-0 8.7%
2-0 7.7%
0-0 7.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	52.1%	Under 2.5	47.9%
BTTS yes	56.4%	BTTS no	43.6%
Səbail 1+	78.9%	Səbail 2+	46.1%
Mingəçevir 1+	70.0%	Mingəçevir 2+	33.8%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.20. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

27/100

Data quality

30/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Both teams score

Teams to score · usually 52%

57.8% fair odds 1.73

moderate signal · 5438 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Mingəçevir under 1.5 in 2nd half

2nd half away goals O/U · usually 82%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 709 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Səbail have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Mingəçevir have allowed 1.35.
At home Səbail average 1.35 xG a match.

Risk factors

Data quality is 30/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
Səbail have only 0 matches on record.
Mingəçevir have only 0 matches on record.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Səbail have an estimated 43.4% win probability, against 28.3% for Mingəçevir and 28.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.56 for Səbail and 1.20 for Mingəçevir.

Why Səbail

Səbail have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Mingəçevir have allowed 1.35. At home Səbail average 1.35 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.3%.

Why Mingəçevir can win

Mingəçevir have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Səbail have allowed 1.35. Away from home Mingəçevir average 1.35 xG a match.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Səbail, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Mingəçevir, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Səbail: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Mingəçevir: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Səbail are the model's most likely outcome at 43.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.0%. Confidence 27/100, data quality 30/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

No channel's listings name this match. That is the guide being silent rather than the match being off — most listings say "Live: Premier League" or the name of a studio show, not who is playing. Open the 333 sports channels →

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	442728	1.56–1.20	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	452827	1.51–1.14	1-1 13%	49%	54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail to win	44.4%	41.6%	44.4%	0.94×	2.40
Mingəçevir to win	28.3%	27.1%	30.6%	0.89×	3.69
Draw	27.4%	27.1%	25.0%	1.09×	3.69

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail & not both score	22.5%	21.7%	24.4%	0.89×	4.61
Səbail & both teams score	21.8%	21.7%	20.1%	1.08×	4.61
Draw & both teams score	19.9%	18.1%	17.7%	1.03×	5.52
Mingəçevir & both teams score	14.7%	12.7%	14.6%	0.87×	7.88
Mingəçevir & not both score	13.6%	12.7%	16.0%	0.80×	7.88
Draw & not both score	7.5%	7.6%	7.3%	1.05×	13.08

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail & over 1.5	35.7%	36.6%	34.1%	1.07×	2.74
Səbail & under 3.5	29.6%	26.4%	30.3%	0.87×	3.79
Səbail & over 2.5	28.0%	26.4%	26.9%	0.98×	3.79
Mingəçevir & over 1.5	21.8%	21.8%	23.1%	0.95×	4.58
Draw & under 2.5	20.5%	21.8%	18.8%	1.16×	4.58
Draw & under 3.5	20.5%	21.8%	18.8%	1.16×	4.58
Draw & over 1.5	19.9%	17.7%	17.7%	1.00×	5.64
Mingəçevir & under 3.5	20.0%	17.7%	21.6%	0.82×	5.64
Mingəçevir & over 2.5	17.2%	17.7%	18.4%	0.97×	5.64
Səbail & under 2.5	16.4%	17.7%	17.5%	1.01×	5.64
Səbail & over 3.5	14.8%	12.4%	14.2%	0.88×	8.05
Mingəçevir & under 2.5	11.0%	12.4%	12.2%	1.01×	8.06
Səbail & under 1.5	8.7%	7.6%	10.4%	0.73×	13.20
Draw & under 1.5	7.5%	7.6%	7.3%	1.04×	13.21
Draw & over 2.5	6.9%	7.6%	6.2%	1.22×	13.21
Draw & over 3.5	6.9%	7.6%	6.2%	1.22×	13.21
Mingəçevir & under 1.5	6.4%	7.6%	7.5%	1.01×	13.21
Mingəçevir & over 3.5	8.3%	7.6%	9.0%	0.84×	13.20

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail (1UP)	60.6%	65.1%	59.8%	1.09×	1.54
Mingəçevir (1UP)	46.7%	48.1%	50.4%	0.95×	2.08

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail (2UP)	44.4%	44.4%	45.2%	0.98×	2.25
Mingəçevir (2UP)	28.3%	27.8%	34.2%	0.81×	3.60

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail to win 2nd half	36.8%	36.5%	37.7%	0.97×	2.74
2nd half drawn	35.8%	36.4%	32.7%	1.12×	2.74
Mingəçevir to win 2nd half	27.4%	28.3%	29.7%	0.95×	3.53

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir under 1.5 in 2nd half	83.7%	83.2%	82.3%	1.01×	1.20
Mingəçevir over 0.5 in 2nd half	51.4%	50.1%	53.4%	0.94×	2.00
Mingəçevir under 0.5 in 2nd half	48.6%	50.0%	46.6%	1.07×	2.00
Mingəçevir over 1.5 in 2nd half	16.3%	16.8%	17.7%	0.95×	5.97

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail under 1.5 in 2nd half	77.7%	78.2%	77.4%	1.01×	1.28
Səbail over 0.5 in 2nd half	58.8%	58.5%	58.7%	1.00×	1.71
Səbail under 0.5 in 2nd half	41.2%	41.5%	41.4%	1.00×	2.41
Səbail over 1.5 in 2nd half	22.3%	21.8%	22.6%	0.96×	4.59

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir (+2.5)	90.7%	92.3%	90.1%	1.02×	1.08
Mingəçevir (+1.5)	76.9%	78.0%	77.7%	1.00×	1.28
Səbail (+0.5)	71.7%	73.3%	69.4%	1.06×	1.36
Mingəçevir (+0.5)	55.6%	58.3%	55.6%	1.05×	1.71
Səbail (-0.5)	44.4%	41.7%	44.4%	0.94×	2.40
Mingəçevir (-0.5)	28.3%	26.7%	30.6%	0.87×	3.74
Səbail (-1.5)	23.1%	22.0%	22.3%	0.99×	4.55
Səbail (-2.5)	9.3%	7.7%	9.9%	0.78×	12.97

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir to concede	78.9%	78.9%	76.7%	1.03×	1.27
Mingəçevir clean sheet	21.1%	21.1%	23.3%	0.91×	4.74

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir clean sheet in 1st half	51.2%	53.8%	51.8%	1.04×	1.86
Mingəçevir to concede in 1st half	48.8%	46.2%	48.2%	0.96×	2.16

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir to concede in 2nd half	58.8%	58.9%	58.7%	1.00×	1.70
Mingəçevir clean sheet in 2nd half	41.2%	41.1%	41.4%	1.00×	2.43

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir under 3.5 goals	96.6%	97.3%	95.7%	1.02×	1.03
Mingəçevir under 2.5 goals	87.9%	87.1%	87.0%	1.00×	1.15
Mingəçevir over 0.5 goals	70.0%	67.5%	68.3%	0.99×	1.48
Mingəçevir under 1.5 goals	66.2%	67.5%	66.3%	1.02×	1.48
Mingəçevir over 1.5 goals	33.8%	32.5%	33.7%	0.96×	3.08
Mingəçevir under 0.5 goals	30.0%	32.5%	31.7%	1.02×	3.08
Mingəçevir over 2.5 goals	12.1%	12.9%	13.0%	0.99×	7.76
Mingəçevir over 3.5 goals	3.4%	2.7%	4.3%	0.62×	37.11

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir under 1.5 in 1st half	91.5%	93.8%	89.4%	1.05×	1.07
Mingəçevir under 0.5 in 1st half	61.8%	62.4%	59.0%	1.06×	1.60
Mingəçevir over 0.5 in 1st half	38.2%	37.6%	41.0%	0.92×	2.66
Mingəçevir over 1.5 in 1st half	8.5%	6.2%	10.6%	0.59×	16.11

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir scores equally in both	41.4%	42.1%	40.6%	1.04×	2.37
Mingəçevir scores more in 2nd half	36.9%	38.1%	36.5%	1.04×	2.63
Mingəçevir scores more in 1st half	21.7%	23.5%	22.9%	1.03×	4.25

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail (away no bet)	61.9%	62.3%	64.0%	0.97×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	38.1%	37.7%	36.0%	1.05×	2.65

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir even goals	54.5%	53.6%	55.7%	0.96×	1.87
Mingəçevir odd goals	45.5%	46.4%	44.3%	1.05×	2.16

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	84.7%	82.4%	82.7%	1.00×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.3%	17.6%	17.3%	1.01×	5.70

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	65.1%	66.7%	66.2%	1.01×	1.50
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.9%	33.3%	33.8%	0.99×	3.00

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	56.4%	58.5%	58.6%	1.00×	1.71
Səbail to score 2+ in a row	37.7%	37.0%	36.9%	1.00×	2.70
Mingəçevir to score 2+ in a row	25.2%	26.6%	28.6%	0.93×	3.75
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.1%	21.7%	22.9%	0.95×	4.61
Səbail to score 3+ in a row	13.5%	12.9%	14.2%	0.91×	7.76
Mingəçevir to score 3+ in a row	6.8%	7.7%	9.1%	0.85×	12.97

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.0%	11.2%	11.5%	0.98×	8.91
0-0	7.5%	7.4%	7.3%	1.02×	13.45
0-1	6.4%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.45
1-0	8.7%	7.4%	10.4%	0.72×	13.45
1-2	7.1%	7.4%	7.0%	1.06×	13.45
2-0	7.7%	7.4%	7.2%	1.04×	13.45
2-1	9.2%	7.4%	8.8%	0.84×	13.45
2-2	5.6%	7.4%	5.1%	1.46×	13.45
0-2	4.6%	1.7%	4.7%	0.36×	58.34
0-3	1.8%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.34
0-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.9%	1.93×	58.35
1-3	2.9%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.34
1-4	0.9%	1.7%	1.0%	1.69×	58.35
2-3	2.2%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.34
2-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.6%	2.89×	58.35
3-0	4.0%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.34
3-1	4.8%	1.7%	4.2%	0.41×	58.34
3-2	2.9%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.34
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	1.0%	1.72×	58.34
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.4%	4.65×	58.35
4-0	1.6%	1.7%	1.8%	0.98×	58.34
4-1	1.9%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	58.34
4-2	1.1%	1.7%	0.9%	1.87×	58.34
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.4%	4.62×	58.35
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	16.16×	58.35
Any other score	2.9%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.34

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail (2nd half DNB)	57.4%	55.7%	55.9%	1.00×	1.79
Mingəçevir (2nd half DNB)	42.6%	44.3%	44.1%	1.00×	2.26

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail leading at HT (DNB)	60.6%	61.9%	56.7%	1.09×	1.62
Mingəçevir leading at HT (DNB)	39.4%	38.1%	43.3%	0.88×	2.63

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail or Mingəçevir (12)	72.6%	72.9%	75.0%	0.97×	1.37
Səbail or draw (1X)	71.7%	72.9%	69.4%	1.05×	1.37
Mingəçevir or draw (X2)	55.6%	58.4%	55.6%	1.05×	1.71

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail or draw at HT	77.6%	76.8%	74.1%	1.04×	1.30
Mingəçevir or draw at HT	65.5%	67.1%	66.2%	1.01×	1.49
Səbail or Mingəçevir at HT	56.9%	57.2%	59.7%	0.96×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail or draw (1UP)	71.7%	78.9%	74.2%	1.06×	1.27
Mingəçevir or draw (1UP)	55.6%	64.6%	63.9%	1.01×	1.55

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail or draw in 2nd half	72.6%	71.7%	70.3%	1.02×	1.40
Səbail or Mingəçevir in 2nd half	64.2%	63.6%	67.3%	0.94×	1.57
Mingəçevir or draw in 2nd half	63.2%	63.5%	62.3%	1.02×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.2%	60.5%	58.9%	1.03×	1.65
Neither half drawn	37.8%	39.5%	41.1%	0.96×	2.53

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail (DNB)	61.1%	62.1%	59.2%	1.05×	1.61
Mingəçevir (DNB)	38.9%	37.9%	40.8%	0.93×	2.64

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail to score first	52.2%	52.3%	51.2%	1.02×	1.91
Mingəçevir to score first	40.3%	43.7%	42.9%	1.02×	2.29
No goal scored	7.5%	6.4%	5.9%	1.08×	15.65

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	56.4%	55.3%	52.4%	1.06×	1.81
Not both teams to score	43.6%	44.7%	47.6%	0.94×	2.24

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	43.4%	41.6%	40.9%	1.02×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	34.9%	34.0%	37.1%	0.92×	2.94
Both score & under 2.5	13.0%	11.9%	11.5%	1.04×	8.41
Not both score & over 2.5	8.7%	8.4%	10.6%	0.80×	11.85

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.4%	83.0%	86.0%	0.97×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	15.6%	17.0%	14.0%	1.21×	5.89

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.3%	69.4%	70.2%	0.99×	1.44
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.7%	30.6%	29.8%	1.03×	3.27

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	56.1%	57.9%	57.8%	1.00×	1.73
Both score 2nd half only	25.0%	25.8%	23.8%	1.08×	3.88
Both score 1st half only	13.2%	11.9%	12.5%	0.95×	8.41
Both score in both halves	5.6%	6.9%	6.0%	1.14×	14.55

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.2%	82.6%	81.5%	1.01×	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	18.8%	17.4%	18.5%	0.94×	5.75

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	55.3%	57.3%	58.9%	0.97×	1.75
A half without a goal	44.7%	42.7%	41.1%	1.04×	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.4%	46.5%	45.4%	1.02×	2.15
4-6 goals	27.7%	27.0%	27.0%	1.00×	3.70
0-1 goals	22.6%	23.5%	25.2%	0.93×	4.26
7+ goals	2.3%	2.0%	2.4%	0.83×	49.74

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir to score exactly 1	36.1%	36.0%	34.6%	1.04×	2.78
Mingəçevir to score exactly 0	30.0%	32.3%	31.7%	1.02×	3.09
Mingəçevir to score exactly 2	21.7%	23.2%	20.8%	1.12×	4.30
Mingəçevir to score 3+	12.1%	13.0%	13.0%	1.00×	7.69

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail to score exactly 1	32.8%	32.2%	33.1%	0.97×	3.10
Səbail to score exactly 2	25.6%	26.4%	24.0%	1.10×	3.78
Səbail to score exactly 0	21.1%	22.9%	23.3%	0.98×	4.38
Səbail to score 3+	20.6%	22.8%	19.7%	1.16×	4.38

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.1%	42.8%	40.3%	1.06×	2.33
Səbail leading at HT	34.5%	32.9%	33.8%	0.97×	3.04
Mingəçevir leading at HT	22.4%	23.2%	25.9%	0.90×	4.31

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail -1: 2	55.6%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Səbail -1: 1	23.1%	23.3%	—	—	4.29
Səbail -1: X	21.3%	23.3%	—	—	4.29

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir (0:1)	55.6%	57.8%	55.6%	1.04×	1.73
Səbail (0:1)	23.1%	23.6%	22.3%	1.06×	4.24
Draw (0:1)	21.3%	23.6%	22.2%	1.06×	4.24

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir (0:2)	76.9%	79.1%	77.7%	1.02×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.7%	11.4%	12.3%	0.92×	8.80
Səbail (0:2)	9.3%	7.7%	9.9%	0.78×	12.96

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir (0:3)	90.7%	92.5%	90.1%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	6.2%	6.5%	5.9%	1.10×	15.41
Səbail (0:3)	3.1%	2.6%	4.0%	0.63×	39.16

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir (0:4)	96.9%	97.7%	96.0%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.2%	1.4%	2.5%	0.56×	70.69
Səbail (0:4)	0.9%	1.4%	1.5%	0.94×	70.74

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail (1:0)	71.7%	72.4%	69.4%	1.04×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	16.2%	17.3%	17.0%	1.02×	5.77
Mingəçevir (1:0)	12.1%	12.5%	13.6%	0.93×	7.97

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail (2:0)	87.9%	88.1%	86.4%	1.02×	1.14
Draw (2:0)	8.2%	6.6%	8.1%	0.81×	15.11
Mingəçevir (2:0)	3.9%	2.8%	5.4%	0.51×	35.89

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.0%	48.2%	48.6%	0.99×	2.07
1st half highest scoring	26.5%	26.2%	26.3%	1.00×	3.82
Halves equal	26.5%	26.2%	25.2%	1.04×	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail to concede	70.0%	68.6%	68.3%	1.01×	1.46
Səbail clean sheet	30.0%	31.4%	31.7%	0.99×	3.19

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail clean sheet in 1st half	61.8%	62.1%	59.0%	1.05×	1.61
Səbail to concede in 1st half	38.2%	37.9%	41.0%	0.92×	2.64

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail clean sheet in 2nd half	48.6%	50.4%	46.6%	1.08×	1.98
Səbail to concede in 2nd half	51.4%	49.6%	53.4%	0.93×	2.02

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail under 3.5 goals	92.7%	92.3%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
Səbail under 2.5 goals	79.4%	78.2%	80.3%	0.97×	1.28
Səbail over 0.5 goals	78.9%	78.2%	76.7%	1.02×	1.28
Səbail under 1.5 goals	53.9%	52.8%	56.3%	0.94×	1.89
Səbail over 1.5 goals	46.1%	47.2%	43.7%	1.08×	2.12
Səbail under 0.5 goals	21.1%	21.8%	23.3%	0.94×	4.58
Səbail over 2.5 goals	20.6%	21.8%	19.7%	1.11×	4.58
Səbail over 3.5 goals	7.3%	7.7%	7.6%	1.01×	13.07

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail under 1.5 in 1st half	85.5%	87.6%	85.9%	1.02×	1.14
Səbail under 0.5 in 1st half	51.2%	53.8%	51.8%	1.04×	1.86
Səbail over 0.5 in 1st half	48.8%	46.2%	48.2%	0.96×	2.17
Səbail over 1.5 in 1st half	14.5%	12.4%	14.1%	0.88×	8.07

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail scores more in 2nd half	38.5%	37.2%	38.0%	0.98×	2.69
Səbail scores equally in both	35.6%	37.1%	37.1%	1.00×	2.70
Səbail scores more in 1st half	25.9%	27.8%	24.9%	1.11×	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir (home no bet)	50.8%	52.0%	55.1%	0.94×	1.92
Draw (home no bet)	49.2%	48.0%	44.9%	1.07×	2.08

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail even goals	52.2%	50.9%	52.8%	0.96×	1.96
Səbail odd goals	47.8%	49.1%	47.2%	1.04×	2.04

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	31.8%	32.1%	29.3%	1.10×	3.11
HT 1-0	21.0%	22.5%	20.7%	1.08×	4.45
HT 0-1	15.0%	19.8%	16.3%	1.22×	5.04
HT 1-1	10.4%	10.9%	10.2%	1.07×	9.17
HT 2-0	7.1%	8.0%	7.1%	1.12×	12.55
Any other HT score	4.3%	2.5%	4.7%	0.53×	40.39
HT 0-2	3.7%	2.5%	4.9%	0.51×	40.42
HT 2-1	3.4%	2.5%	3.3%	0.76×	40.43
HT 1-2	2.5%	2.5%	2.8%	0.89×	40.47
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.5%	0.9%	2.76×	40.55

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail at HT / Səbail at FT	26.7%	25.1%	25.8%	0.97×	3.99
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.7%	17.3%	14.1%	1.22×	5.78
Draw at HT / Səbail at FT	15.2%	17.3%	14.7%	1.18×	5.78
Mingəçevir at HT / Mingəçevir at FT	14.9%	12.0%	17.4%	0.69×	8.31
Draw at HT / Mingəçevir at FT	11.1%	12.0%	11.6%	1.04×	8.34
Səbail at HT / Draw at FT	5.7%	6.5%	5.1%	1.26×	15.50
Mingəçevir at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	3.6%	5.6%	0.65×	27.50
Mingəçevir at HT / Səbail at FT	2.5%	3.6%	2.9%	1.25×	27.57
Səbail at HT / Mingəçevir at FT	2.2%	3.6%	3.0%	1.22×	27.57

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail to score last	52.3%	54.8%	51.4%	1.07×	1.83
Mingəçevir to score last	40.2%	43.4%	42.7%	1.01×	2.31
No goal scored	7.5%	6.4%	5.9%	1.08×	15.65

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.5%	93.6%	94.1%	0.99×	1.07
Səbail to lead by 1 at any time	60.6%	63.3%	59.8%	1.06×	1.58
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	47.0%	46.5%	48.2%	0.97×	2.15
Mingəçevir to lead by 1 at any time	46.7%	46.5%	50.4%	0.92×	2.15
Səbail to lead by 2 at any time	29.6%	25.1%	28.2%	0.89×	3.99
Mingəçevir to lead by 2 at any time	17.7%	17.6%	20.3%	0.87×	5.68
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.9%	17.6%	19.5%	0.90×	5.68
Səbail to lead by 3 at any time	11.5%	11.0%	12.1%	0.91×	9.08
Mingəçevir to lead by 3 at any time	5.3%	7.4%	7.4%	1.00×	13.54

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.3%	87.1%	86.4%	1.01×	1.15
1-4 goals	77.9%	77.9%	78.0%	1.00×	1.28
2-6 goals	75.1%	77.9%	72.4%	1.08×	1.28
2-5 goals	71.2%	72.2%	68.5%	1.05×	1.39
1-3 goals	62.6%	62.7%	63.3%	0.99×	1.60
2-4 goals	62.8%	62.7%	60.1%	1.04×	1.60
3-6 goals	49.8%	47.4%	49.0%	0.97×	2.11
2-3 goals	47.4%	47.4%	45.4%	1.04×	2.11
3-5 goals	45.9%	47.4%	45.1%	1.05×	2.11
1-2 goals	40.4%	43.6%	41.2%	1.06×	2.30
3-4 goals	37.5%	39.0%	36.8%	1.06×	2.56
4-6 goals	27.7%	28.5%	27.0%	1.06×	3.51
4-5 goals	23.8%	23.7%	23.0%	1.03×	4.22
5-6 goals	12.3%	13.5%	12.3%	1.10×	7.42
7+ goals	2.3%	2.3%	2.4%	0.93×	44.25

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail never behind	45.8%	54.4%	49.6%	1.10×	1.84
Mingəçevir never behind	31.9%	36.6%	40.2%	0.91×	2.73

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	52.5%	50.1%	49.8%	1.00×	2.00
Odd number of goals	47.5%	49.9%	50.2%	1.00×	2.00

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.4%	55.0%	53.7%	1.02×	1.82
Odd goals in 1st half	44.6%	45.0%	46.3%	0.97×	2.22

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.8%	51.6%	51.1%	1.01×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.2%	48.4%	48.9%	0.99×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	93.8%	92.3%	93.7%	0.99×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.5%	92.3%	92.7%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	85.4%	87.8%	85.3%	1.03×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	77.4%	77.0%	74.8%	1.03×	1.30
Under 3.5 goals	70.1%	72.4%	70.6%	1.03×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	52.1%	51.8%	51.5%	1.01×	1.93
Under 2.5 goals	47.9%	48.2%	48.5%	0.99×	2.08
Over 3.5 goals	29.9%	27.6%	29.4%	0.94×	3.62
Under 1.5 goals	22.6%	23.0%	25.2%	0.91×	4.34
Over 4.5 goals	14.6%	12.2%	14.7%	0.83×	8.21
Under 0.5 goals	7.5%	7.7%	7.3%	1.06×	12.91
Over 5.5 goals	6.2%	7.7%	6.3%	1.22×	12.91

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.6%	97.3%	97.5%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.3%	92.0%	93.1%	0.99×	1.09
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	82.7%	81.5%	82.8%	0.98×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	69.7%	67.1%	67.1%	1.00×	1.49
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	61.5%	62.3%	62.3%	1.00×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	38.5%	37.7%	37.7%	1.00×	2.65
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	30.3%	32.9%	32.9%	1.00×	3.04
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	17.3%	18.5%	17.2%	1.07×	5.40
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.7%	8.0%	6.9%	1.15×	12.51
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.4%	2.7%	2.5%	1.08×	36.70

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.0%	88.4%	88.4%	1.00×	1.13
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.2%	67.0%	70.7%	0.95×	1.49
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.8%	67.0%	66.3%	1.01×	1.49
Over 1.5 in 1st half	32.2%	33.0%	33.7%	0.98×	3.03
Under 0.5 in 1st half	31.8%	33.0%	29.3%	1.13×	3.03
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.0%	11.6%	11.6%	1.00×	8.64

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.6%	80.0%	82.3%	0.97×	1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	78.1%	80.0%	77.5%	1.03×	1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	48.2%	50.5%	49.8%	1.02×	1.98
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	51.8%	49.5%	50.2%	0.98×	2.02
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	21.9%	20.0%	22.5%	0.89×	5.00
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.4%	20.0%	17.7%	1.13×	5.01

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir not to score in both halves	80.4%	81.2%	77.6%	1.05×	1.23
Səbail not to score in both halves	71.3%	72.5%	70.5%	1.03×	1.38
Səbail to score in both halves	28.7%	27.5%	29.5%	0.93×	3.63
Mingəçevir to score in both halves	19.6%	18.8%	22.4%	0.84×	5.32

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	56.4%	57.8%	52.4%	1.10×	1.73
Only Səbail scores	22.5%	21.5%	24.4%	0.88×	4.64
Only Mingəçevir scores	13.6%	11.2%	16.0%	0.70×	8.94
Neither team scores	7.5%	7.1%	7.3%	0.97×	14.09

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.3%	25.0%	23.3%	1.07×	4.00
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	22.3%	22.1%	1.01×	4.49
Exactly 1 goals	15.1%	17.6%	17.9%	0.98×	5.68
Exactly 4 goals	15.3%	17.6%	14.7%	1.20×	5.68
Exactly 5 goals	8.5%	7.8%	8.4%	0.93×	12.88
Exactly 0 goals	7.5%	7.8%	7.3%	1.06×	12.88
6 or more goals	6.2%	7.8%	6.3%	1.22×	12.89

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.0%	36.9%	37.0%	1.00×	2.71
No goals in 1st half	31.8%	34.4%	29.3%	1.17×	2.91
2 goals in 1st half	21.2%	21.6%	22.2%	0.97×	4.64
3+ goals in 1st half	11.0%	11.4%	11.6%	0.98×	8.81

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	48.2%	50.4%	49.8%	1.01×	1.98
1 goal in 2nd half	31.4%	34.3%	32.5%	1.05×	2.92
No goals in 2nd half	20.4%	20.5%	17.7%	1.16×	4.88

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir not to win both halves	93.7%	92.6%	91.8%	1.01×	1.08
Səbail not to win both halves	87.1%	87.8%	86.8%	1.01×	1.14
Səbail to win both halves	12.9%	12.2%	13.2%	0.92×	8.19
Mingəçevir to win both halves	6.3%	7.4%	8.2%	0.90×	13.58

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail to win either half	58.4%	58.2%	58.3%	1.00×	1.72
Mingəçevir to win neither half	56.5%	58.1%	52.6%	1.10×	1.72
Mingəçevir to win either half	43.5%	41.9%	47.4%	0.88×	2.39
Səbail to win neither half	41.6%	41.8%	41.7%	1.00×	2.39

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir not to win to nil	86.4%	87.9%	84.0%	1.05×	1.14
Səbail not to win to nil	77.5%	78.4%	75.6%	1.04×	1.28
Səbail to win to nil	22.5%	21.6%	24.4%	0.89×	4.63
Mingəçevir to win to nil	13.6%	12.1%	16.0%	0.76×	8.24

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.4%	27.3%	25.0%	1.09×	3.66
Səbail by 1	21.3%	23.4%	22.2%	1.06×	4.27
Mingəçevir by 1	16.2%	17.2%	17.0%	1.01×	5.80
Səbail by 2	13.7%	11.8%	12.3%	0.96×	8.44
Səbail by 3+	9.3%	7.3%	9.9%	0.73×	13.77
Mingəçevir by 2	8.2%	7.3%	8.1%	0.89×	13.77
Mingəçevir by 3+	3.9%	3.0%	5.4%	0.55×	33.45