Saint-Etienne v Paris Saint Germain — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 March 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 22
On target
2 – 10
Shots in box
5 – 14
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.81
Goals − xG
-0.28 – +2.04
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Saint-Etienne win
7.8%
Draw
15.8%
Paris Saint Germain win
76.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Saint-Etienne have scored 15 from 13.7 expected and conceded 21 from 22.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWLLWL last 10
scored 15
from 13.7 xG
conceded 21
from 22.2 xG
Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDWWLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 19.8 xG
conceded 10
from 12.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.91–2.88 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Saint-Etienne 1.28 xGParis Saint Germain 3.96 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Saint-Etienne attacking right
Paris Saint Germain attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Saint-Etienne |
Pierre Ekwah | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Tardieu |
| 4' |
Saint-Etienne |
Zuriko Davitashvili | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yvann Maçon |
| 8' |
Saint-Etienne |
Lucas Stassin | 0.32 | Open Play | — | Goal | Zuriko Davitashvili |
| 18' |
 Paris Saint Germain |
Fabián | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Désiré Doué |
| 21' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Beraldo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Fabián | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bradley Barcola |
| 28' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Désiré Doué |
| 29' |
Saint-Etienne |
Lucas Stassin | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Irvin Cardona |
| 30' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Désiré Doué |
| 38' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.57 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 39' |
Saint-Etienne |
Lucas Stassin | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Irvin Cardona |
| 42' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 45' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fabián |
| 47' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 47' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Beraldo |
| 48' |
Saint-Etienne |
Lucas Stassin | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 49' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 51' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | João Neves |
| 51' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Warren Zaïre-Emery |
| 52' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bradley Barcola |
| 54' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Désiré Doué |
| 56' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Désiré Doué |
| 61' |
Paris Saint Germain |
João Neves | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 65' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Fabián |
| 68' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Nuno Mendes | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 72' |
Saint-Etienne |
Ben Old | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Benjamin Bouchouari |
| 73' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vitinha |
| 74' |
Saint-Etienne |
Irvin Cardona | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Leo Petrot |
| 76' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Gonçalo Ramos |
| 81' |
Saint-Etienne |
Yvann Maçon | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aïmen Moueffek |
| 86' |
Saint-Etienne |
Pierre Ekwah | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ben Old |
| 89' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ibrahim Mbaye | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bradley Barcola |
| 93' |
Saint-Etienne |
Louis Mouton | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leo Petrot |
Players
Paris Saint Germain
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Désiré Doué MC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.57 | 0.21 | 0.94 |
| João Neves DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.12 | 0.84 |
| Fabián MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.36 | 1.35 |
| Bradley Barcola FWL | 90 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.77 | 1.34 |
| Matvey Safonov GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Lucas Hernández DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Gonçalo Ramos FW | 81 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.37 | 0.03 | 0.64 |
| Beraldo DC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia FWR | 68 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.09 | 1.13 |
| William Pacho DC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Warren Zaïre-Emery MC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.17 |
| Vitinha Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.44 |
| Nuno Mendes Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Ousmane Dembélé Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Ibrahim Mbaye Sub | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Presnel Kimpembe Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Saint-Etienne
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yvann Maçon DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| Pierre Ekwah MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Leo Petrot DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.39 |
| Gautier Larsonneur GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Dylan Batubinsika DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mickael Nade DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Benjamin Bouchouari MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.56 |
| Lucas Stassin FW | 81 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.06 | 0.00 | 1.06 |
| Irvin Cardona FWR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.15 | 0.49 |
| Zuriko Davitashvili FWL | 66 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| Florian Tardieu MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.37 |
| Ben Old Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| Louis Mouton Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Ibrahima Wadji Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aïmen Moueffek Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Dennis Appiah Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |