Saint-Etienne v Toulouse — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 May 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 17
On target
6 – 8
Shots in box
11 – 15
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.23
Set-piece xG
0.52 – 0.18
Goals − xG
+0.65 – -0.83
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Saint-Etienne win
21.5%
Draw
23.1%
Toulouse win
55.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Saint-Etienne have scored 15 from 13.7 expected and conceded 21 from 22.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWLLWL last 10
scored 15
from 13.7 xG
conceded 21
from 22.2 xG
Toulouse are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLDWWDLDL last 10
scored 11
from 14.6 xG
conceded 19
from 16.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.07–1.85 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.05–1.96 | 1-1 10% | 58% | 56% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Saint-Etienne 1.36 xGToulouse 3.83 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Saint-Etienne attacking right
Toulouse attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Toulouse |
Warren Kamanzi | 0.65 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Frank Magri |
| 9' |
Toulouse |
Warren Kamanzi | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Yann Gboho |
| 12' |
 Saint-Etienne |
Florian Tardieu | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' |
Toulouse |
Joshua King | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Warren Kamanzi |
| 14' |
Toulouse |
Joshua King | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Frank Magri |
| 20' |
Saint-Etienne |
Aïmen Moueffek | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Irvin Cardona |
| 27' |
Saint-Etienne |
Irvin Cardona | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Shot On Post | Zuriko Davitashvili |
| 37' |
Saint-Etienne |
Florian Tardieu | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 44' |
Saint-Etienne |
Zuriko Davitashvili | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Irvin Cardona |
| 46' |
Toulouse |
Joshua King | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Frank Magri |
| 47' |
Saint-Etienne |
Zuriko Davitashvili | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pierre Ekwah |
| 47' |
Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jaydee Canvot |
| 48' |
Saint-Etienne |
Pierre Ekwah | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Zuriko Davitashvili |
| 48' |
Saint-Etienne |
Zuriko Davitashvili | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Saint-Etienne |
Zuriko Davitashvili | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Toulouse |
Vincent Sierro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Warren Kamanzi |
| 49' |
Toulouse |
Joshua King | 0.14 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vincent Sierro |
| 49' |
Toulouse |
Vincent Sierro | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
Toulouse |
Joshua King | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Warren Kamanzi |
| 51' |
Saint-Etienne |
Ibrahima Wadji | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Florian Tardieu |
| 53' |
Saint-Etienne |
Dylan Batubinsika | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Zuriko Davitashvili |
| 55' |
Saint-Etienne |
Florian Tardieu | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Zuriko Davitashvili |
| 55' |
Toulouse |
Cristian Cásseres Jr. | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Djibril Sidibe |
| 57' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Joshua King |
| 62' |
Saint-Etienne |
Dylan Batubinsika | 0.30 | From Corner | — | Goal | Zuriko Davitashvili |
| 63' |
Toulouse |
Warren Kamanzi | 0.63 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Djibril Sidibe |
| 65' |
Saint-Etienne |
Irvin Cardona | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leo Petrot |
| 65' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Frank Magri |
| 79' |
Saint-Etienne |
Pierre Ekwah | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ben Old |
| 81' |
Saint-Etienne |
Pierre Ekwah | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Zuriko Davitashvili |
| 83' |
Saint-Etienne |
Florian Tardieu | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Toulouse |
Shavy Babicka | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vincent Sierro |
| 89' |
Toulouse |
Zakaria Aboukhlal | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Shavy Babicka |
| 94' |
Toulouse |
Zakaria Aboukhlal | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rafik Messali |
| 95' |
Saint-Etienne |
Benjamin Bouchouari | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ben Old |
Players
Saint-Etienne
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zuriko Davitashvili FWL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0.51 | 0.52 | 0.74 |
| Florian Tardieu MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.39 |
| Pierre Ekwah MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.25 |
| Mickael Nade DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Gautier Larsonneur GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leo Petrot DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.27 |
| Dennis Appiah DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Irvin Cardona FWR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| Ibrahima Wadji FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Benjamin Bouchouari Sub | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Maxime Bernauer DC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Dylan Batubinsika Sub | 40 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Aïmen Moueffek MC | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ben Old Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Djylian N'Guessan Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Toulouse
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warren Kamanzi DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1.61 | 0.11 | 2.22 |
| Frank Magri FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.30 | 1.34 | 1.64 |
| Yann Gboho FWR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.34 | 1.93 |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 2.57 |
| Vincent Sierro MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.51 | 2.00 |
| Mark McKenzie DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.05 |
| Jaydee Canvot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1.47 |
| Guillaume Restes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Charlie Cresswell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.61 |
| Djibril Sidibe DMR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.70 | 2.15 |
| Joshua King FWL | 63 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0.87 | 0.12 | 0.95 |
| Zakaria Aboukhlal Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Rafik Messali Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Shavy Babicka Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.33 | 0.70 |
| Ümit Akdag Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |