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San Jose Earthquakes v Colorado Rapids — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 29 October 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627

USA-MLS results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
San Jose Earthquakes win
44.2%
model 43.5%
Draw
27.9%
model 26.9%
Colorado Rapids win
28.0%
model 29.6%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.8%
  2. 1-0 9.7%
  3. 2-1 9.1%
  4. 2-0 7.6%
  5. 0-0 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.549.9% Under 2.550.1%
BTTS yes54.3% BTTS no45.7%
San Jose Earthquakes 1+77.3% San Jose Earthquakes 2+43.7%
Colorado Rapids 1+69.4% Colorado Rapids 2+33.2%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.18. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
60/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Under 2.5 goals
Over/Under · usually 40%
52.8% fair odds 1.89
strong signal · 1367 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Colorado Rapids not to win to nil
Win to nil · usually 88%
83.3% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out San Jose Earthquakes.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

San Jose Earthquakes have an estimated 44.2% win probability, against 28.0% for Colorado Rapids and 27.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.49 for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.18 for Colorado Rapids.

Why San Jose Earthquakes

Nothing in the data singles out San Jose Earthquakes.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.9%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Colorado Rapids can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for San Jose Earthquakes, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Colorado Rapids, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

San Jose Earthquakes: 56% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Colorado Rapids: 58% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 7.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

San Jose Earthquakes are the model's most likely outcome at 44.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.8%. Confidence 60/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.49–1.18 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.53–1.24 1-1 13% 52% 56%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes to win 43.3% 42.9% 45.3% 0.95× 2.33
Colorado Rapids to win 30.3% 30.4% 30.0% 1.01× 3.29
Draw 26.4% 27.9% 24.8% 1.12× 3.58
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes & not both score 22.0% 21.8% 21.1% 1.03× 4.58
San Jose Earthquakes & both teams score 21.3% 21.8% 24.4% 0.90× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 19.5% 18.0% 19.2% 0.94× 5.56
Colorado Rapids & both teams score 15.5% 18.0% 18.0% 1.00× 5.57
Colorado Rapids & not both score 14.8% 13.3% 12.1% 1.10× 7.53
Draw & not both score 6.9% 8.3% 5.8% 1.45× 12.01
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes & over 1.5 34.4% 30.8% 37.2% 0.83× 3.25
San Jose Earthquakes & under 3.5 29.1% 26.1% 28.4% 0.92× 3.84
San Jose Earthquakes & over 2.5 27.1% 26.1% 31.0% 0.84× 3.84
Colorado Rapids & over 1.5 23.2% 21.6% 23.7% 0.91× 4.63
Colorado Rapids & under 3.5 21.4% 21.6% 18.8% 1.15× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 19.5% 18.0% 19.2% 0.94× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 19.4% 18.0% 16.0% 1.12× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 19.4% 18.0% 16.0% 1.12× 5.56
Colorado Rapids & over 2.5 18.3% 18.0% 20.5% 0.88× 5.56
San Jose Earthquakes & under 2.5 16.2% 18.0% 14.4% 1.25× 5.56
San Jose Earthquakes & over 3.5 14.3% 12.8% 17.0% 0.75× 7.79
Colorado Rapids & under 2.5 12.0% 12.8% 9.6% 1.34× 7.79
San Jose Earthquakes & under 1.5 8.9% 7.9% 8.2% 0.96× 12.63
Colorado Rapids & over 3.5 8.9% 7.9% 11.3% 0.70× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 6.9% 7.9% 5.8% 1.38× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 7.0% 7.9% 8.9% 0.89× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 7.0% 7.9% 8.9% 0.89× 12.63
Colorado Rapids & under 1.5 7.1% 7.9% 6.4% 1.23× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes (1UP) 59.7% 58.2% — — 1.72
Colorado Rapids (1UP) 48.4% 44.0% — — 2.27
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes (2UP) 43.3% 47.2% — — 2.12
Colorado Rapids (2UP) 30.3% 30.2% — — 3.31
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes to win 2nd half 35.9% 36.2% — — 2.77
2nd half drawn 35.4% 36.2% — — 2.77
Colorado Rapids to win 2nd half 28.7% 26.1% — — 3.83
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids under 1.5 in 2nd half 82.8% 84.3% — — 1.19
Colorado Rapids over 0.5 in 2nd half 52.6% 52.7% — — 1.90
Colorado Rapids under 0.5 in 2nd half 47.4% 47.3% — — 2.11
Colorado Rapids over 1.5 in 2nd half 17.2% 15.7% — — 6.35
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes under 1.5 in 2nd half 78.3% 75.2% — — 1.33
San Jose Earthquakes over 0.5 in 2nd half 58.2% 58.3% — — 1.72
San Jose Earthquakes under 0.5 in 2nd half 41.8% 41.7% — — 2.40
San Jose Earthquakes over 1.5 in 2nd half 21.7% 24.8% — — 4.03
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids (+2.5) 91.3% 92.1% 89.4% 1.03× 1.09
Colorado Rapids (+1.5) 78.1% 78.5% 76.8% 1.02× 1.27
San Jose Earthquakes (+0.5) 69.7% 68.7% 70.0% 0.98× 1.46
Colorado Rapids (+0.5) 56.7% 57.0% 54.7% 1.04× 1.75
San Jose Earthquakes (-0.5) 43.3% 43.0% 45.3% 0.95× 2.33
Colorado Rapids (-0.5) 30.3% 31.3% 30.0% 1.04× 3.19
San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5) 21.9% 21.5% 23.2% 0.93× 4.65
San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5) 8.7% 7.9% 10.6% 0.74× 12.68
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids to concede 78.3% 78.8% 82.3% 0.96× 1.27
Colorado Rapids clean sheet 21.7% 21.2% 17.7% 1.20× 4.72
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids clean sheet in 1st half 51.8% 50.5% — — 1.98
Colorado Rapids to concede in 1st half 48.2% 49.5% — — 2.02
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids to concede in 2nd half 58.2% 57.7% — — 1.73
Colorado Rapids clean sheet in 2nd half 41.8% 42.3% — — 2.36
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids under 6.5 corners 81.1% 81.4% — — 1.23
Colorado Rapids over 2.5 corners 75.3% 76.0% — — 1.32
Colorado Rapids under 5.5 corners 70.7% 71.6% — — 1.40
Colorado Rapids over 3.5 corners 59.0% 57.2% — — 1.75
Colorado Rapids under 4.5 corners 57.0% 57.2% — — 1.75
Colorado Rapids over 4.5 corners 43.0% 42.8% — — 2.33
Colorado Rapids under 3.5 corners 41.0% 42.8% — — 2.34
Colorado Rapids over 5.5 corners 29.3% 28.4% — — 3.52
Colorado Rapids under 2.5 corners 24.7% 24.0% — — 4.17
Colorado Rapids over 6.5 corners 18.9% 18.6% — — 5.37
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids under 3.5 goals 96.2% 97.5% 94.0% 1.04× 1.03
Colorado Rapids under 2.5 goals 87.0% 87.8% 83.3% 1.05× 1.14
Colorado Rapids over 0.5 goals 71.1% 71.8% 73.3% 0.98× 1.39
Colorado Rapids under 1.5 goals 64.7% 63.2% 61.2% 1.03× 1.58
Colorado Rapids over 1.5 goals 35.3% 36.8% 38.8% 0.95× 2.72
Colorado Rapids under 0.5 goals 28.9% 28.2% 26.7% 1.05× 3.55
Colorado Rapids over 2.5 goals 13.0% 12.2% 16.7% 0.73× 8.20
Colorado Rapids over 3.5 goals 3.8% 2.5% 6.0% 0.42× 39.87
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids under 1.5 in 1st half 91.1% 93.7% — — 1.07
Colorado Rapids under 0.5 in 1st half 60.8% 63.2% — — 1.58
Colorado Rapids over 0.5 in 1st half 39.2% 36.8% — — 2.72
Colorado Rapids over 1.5 in 1st half 8.9% 6.3% — — 16.00
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids scores equally in both 40.6% 43.4% — — 2.30
Colorado Rapids scores more in 2nd half 37.5% 37.5% — — 2.67
Colorado Rapids scores more in 1st half 21.9% 21.8% — — 4.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes (away no bet) 62.2% 61.9% 64.6% 0.96× 1.62
Draw (away no bet) 37.8% 38.1% 35.4% 1.08× 2.63
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids even goals 54.2% 52.6% 53.6% 0.98× 1.90
Colorado Rapids odd goals 45.8% 47.4% 46.4% 1.02× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 84.6% 82.9% — — 1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals 15.4% 17.1% — — 5.85
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 65.1% 68.2% — — 1.47
Both halves under 1.5 goals 34.9% 31.8% — — 3.15
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 56.5% 55.1% — — 1.82
San Jose Earthquakes to score 2+ in a row 36.6% 36.5% — — 2.74
Colorado Rapids to score 2+ in a row 26.5% 25.0% — — 4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row 20.0% 16.3% — — 6.15
San Jose Earthquakes to score 3+ in a row 12.9% 12.0% — — 8.31
Colorado Rapids to score 3+ in a row 7.4% 5.5% — — 18.07
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes corners (+3.5) 91.5% 89.6% — — 1.12
San Jose Earthquakes corners (+2.5) 86.8% 84.5% — — 1.18
San Jose Earthquakes corners (+1.5) 80.6% 79.8% — — 1.25
Colorado Rapids corners (+3.5) 65.9% 65.9% — — 1.52
Colorado Rapids corners (+2.5) 56.5% 57.1% — — 1.75
San Jose Earthquakes corners (-1.5) 53.5% 52.4% — — 1.91
Colorado Rapids corners (+1.5) 46.5% 47.6% — — 2.10
San Jose Earthquakes corners (-2.5) 43.5% 42.9% — — 2.33
San Jose Earthquakes corners (-3.5) 34.1% 34.1% — — 2.93
Colorado Rapids corners (-1.5) 19.4% 20.2% — — 4.94
Colorado Rapids corners (-2.5) 13.2% 15.5% — — 6.45
Colorado Rapids corners (-3.5) 8.5% 10.4% — — 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 39.4% 34.0% — — 2.94
0-8 corners 31.7% 33.2% — — 3.01
9-11 corners 28.8% 31.2% — — 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 77.3% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 12.5 corners 69.0% 67.8% — — 1.47
Over 8.5 corners 68.3% 67.8% — — 1.47
Under 11.5 corners 60.6% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 9.5 corners 58.5% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 10.5 corners 51.3% 53.1% — — 1.88
Over 10.5 corners 48.7% 46.9% — — 2.13
Under 9.5 corners 41.5% 42.1% — — 2.38
Over 11.5 corners 39.4% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 8.5 corners 31.7% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 12.5 corners 31.0% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 7.5 corners 22.7% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.5% 11.5% 10.4% 1.11× 8.72
1-0 8.9% 7.4% 8.2% 0.90× 13.51
2-1 9.1% 7.4% 10.0% 0.74× 13.51
0-0 6.9% 7.4% 5.8% 1.29× 13.51
0-1 7.1% 7.4% 6.4% 1.15× 13.51
1-2 7.4% 7.4% 7.7% 0.97× 13.51
2-0 7.3% 7.4% 6.3% 1.17× 13.51
2-2 5.6% 7.4% 6.1% 1.22× 13.51
0-2 4.8% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.29
0-3 2.0% 1.7% 1.8% 0.95× 58.31
0-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.8% 2.17× 58.32
1-3 3.1% 1.7% 3.4% 0.51× 58.30
1-4 1.0% 1.7% 1.4% 1.27× 58.31
2-3 2.3% 1.7% 2.6% 0.66× 58.31
2-4 0.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.01× 58.32
3-0 3.7% 1.7% 4.2% 0.41× 58.30
3-1 4.6% 1.7% 4.8% 0.35× 58.29
3-2 2.9% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.30
3-3 1.2% 1.7% 2.6% 0.66× 58.31
3-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.7% 2.54× 58.32
4-0 1.4% 1.7% 1.2% 1.38× 58.31
4-1 1.8% 1.7% 2.4% 0.72× 58.31
4-2 1.1% 1.7% 1.6% 1.09× 58.31
4-3 0.5% 1.7% 0.8% 2.17× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.80× 58.32
Any other score 2.9% 1.7% 4.7% 0.36× 58.30
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes (2nd half DNB) 55.6% 59.5% — — 1.68
Colorado Rapids (2nd half DNB) 44.4% 40.5% — — 2.47
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes leading at HT (DNB) 59.0% 56.5% — — 1.77
Colorado Rapids leading at HT (DNB) 41.0% 43.5% — — 2.30
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes or Colorado Rapids (12) 73.6% 72.1% 75.2% 0.96× 1.39
San Jose Earthquakes or draw (1X) 69.7% 69.6% 70.0% 0.99× 1.44
Colorado Rapids or draw (X2) 56.7% 57.1% 54.7% 1.04× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes or draw at HT 76.6% 79.4% — — 1.26
Colorado Rapids or draw at HT 66.3% 67.1% — — 1.49
San Jose Earthquakes or Colorado Rapids at HT 57.1% 57.7% — — 1.73
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes or draw (1UP) 69.7% 76.5% — — 1.31
Colorado Rapids or draw (1UP) 56.7% 62.9% — — 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes or draw in 2nd half 71.3% 73.9% — — 1.35
San Jose Earthquakes or Colorado Rapids in 2nd half 64.6% 63.8% — — 1.57
Colorado Rapids or draw in 2nd half 64.1% 63.8% — — 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 62.4% 61.3% — — 1.63
Neither half drawn 37.6% 38.7% — — 2.59
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes (DNB) 58.8% 58.1% 60.2% 0.97× 1.72
Colorado Rapids (DNB) 41.2% 41.9% 39.8% 1.05× 2.39
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes to score first 51.4% 53.3% — — 1.88
Colorado Rapids to score first 41.7% 41.6% — — 2.40
No goal scored 6.9% 7.4% — — 13.48
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 56.4% 55.0% 61.3% 0.90× 1.82
Not both teams to score 43.6% 45.0% 38.7% 1.16× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 43.9% 41.6% 51.1% 0.81× 2.40
Not both score & under 2.5 35.1% 38.4% 29.5% 1.30× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 12.5% 12.4% 10.4% 1.19× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 8.5% 8.3% 9.2% 0.90× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 84.0% 82.6% 79.5% 1.04× 1.21
Both teams to score 2+ 16.0% 17.4% 20.5% 0.85× 5.75
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 69.2% 67.2% — — 1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half 30.8% 32.8% — — 3.05
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 56.0% 59.9% — — 1.67
Both score 2nd half only 25.0% 27.1% — — 3.69
Both score 1st half only 13.2% 10.8% — — 9.27
Both score in both halves 5.8% 6.8% — — 14.74
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 81.0% 83.1% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 19.0% 16.9% — — 5.91
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 55.2% 56.9% — — 1.76
A half without a goal 44.8% 43.1% — — 2.32
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.9% 47.2% 43.0% 1.10× 2.12
4-6 goals 27.9% 26.6% 33.0% 0.81× 3.76
0-1 goals 22.9% 22.9% 20.2% 1.14× 4.36
7+ goals 2.3% 1.8% 4.1% 0.45× 54.30
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids to score exactly 1 35.9% 35.9% 34.6% 1.04× 2.78
Colorado Rapids to score exactly 0 28.9% 27.4% 26.7% 1.03× 3.65
Colorado Rapids to score exactly 2 22.3% 22.3% 22.2% 1.00× 4.49
Colorado Rapids to score 3+ 13.0% 12.9% 16.7% 0.77× 7.76
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes to score exactly 1 33.1% 32.6% 31.1% 1.05× 3.07
San Jose Earthquakes to score exactly 2 25.3% 26.5% 26.4% 1.01× 3.77
San Jose Earthquakes to score exactly 0 21.7% 23.3% 17.7% 1.32× 4.29
San Jose Earthquakes to score 3+ 19.9% 18.8% 25.0% 0.75× 5.33
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 42.9% 42.3% — — 2.36
San Jose Earthquakes leading at HT 33.7% 32.9% — — 3.04
Colorado Rapids leading at HT 23.4% 20.6% — — 4.86
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes -1: 2 56.7% 56.7% — — 1.76
San Jose Earthquakes -1: 1 21.9% 23.5% — — 4.26
San Jose Earthquakes -1: X 21.4% 23.5% — — 4.26
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids (0:1) 56.7% 55.8% 54.7% 1.02× 1.79
San Jose Earthquakes (0:1) 21.9% 24.2% 23.2% 1.04× 4.13
Draw (0:1) 21.4% 24.2% 22.2% 1.09× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids (0:2) 78.1% 79.4% 76.8% 1.03× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 13.2% 11.0% 12.7% 0.86× 9.10
San Jose Earthquakes (0:2) 8.7% 7.7% 10.6% 0.72× 13.03
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids (0:3) 91.3% 92.7% 89.4% 1.04× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.9% 5.8% 6.7% 0.87× 17.25
San Jose Earthquakes (0:3) 2.8% 2.4% 4.1% 0.59× 42.10
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids (0:4) 97.2% 98.1% 95.9% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.1% 1.2% 2.0% 0.60× 81.94
San Jose Earthquakes (0:4) 0.8% 1.2% 2.1% 0.57× 82.08
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes (1:0) 69.7% 70.2% 70.0% 1.00× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 17.3% 17.1% 17.1% 1.00× 5.85
Colorado Rapids (1:0) 13.0% 12.7% 13.0% 0.98× 7.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes (2:0) 87.0% 88.5% 87.0% 1.02× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 8.7% 6.4% 8.6% 0.75× 15.65
Colorado Rapids (2:0) 4.3% 2.3% 4.5% 0.51× 43.62
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.6% 48.7% — — 2.05
1st half highest scoring 26.8% 26.2% — — 3.82
Halves equal 25.6% 26.2% — — 3.82
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes to concede 71.1% 73.1% 73.3% 1.00× 1.37
San Jose Earthquakes clean sheet 28.9% 26.9% 26.7% 1.01× 3.71
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes clean sheet in 1st half 60.8% 63.2% — — 1.58
San Jose Earthquakes to concede in 1st half 39.2% 36.8% — — 2.72
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes to concede in 2nd half 52.6% 52.8% — — 1.89
San Jose Earthquakes clean sheet in 2nd half 47.4% 47.2% — — 2.12
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes over 2.5 corners 89.9% 86.3% — — 1.16
San Jose Earthquakes over 3.5 corners 80.4% 81.0% — — 1.24
San Jose Earthquakes over 4.5 corners 68.5% 66.7% — — 1.50
San Jose Earthquakes under 6.5 corners 56.6% 57.5% — — 1.74
San Jose Earthquakes over 5.5 corners 55.8% 57.5% — — 1.74
San Jose Earthquakes under 5.5 corners 44.2% 42.5% — — 2.35
San Jose Earthquakes over 6.5 corners 43.4% 42.5% — — 2.35
San Jose Earthquakes under 4.5 corners 31.5% 33.3% — — 3.01
San Jose Earthquakes under 3.5 corners 19.6% 19.0% — — 5.25
San Jose Earthquakes under 2.5 corners 10.1% 13.7% — — 7.28
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes under 3.5 goals 93.1% 92.2% 90.6% 1.02× 1.08
San Jose Earthquakes under 2.5 goals 80.1% 82.2% 75.0% 1.10× 1.22
San Jose Earthquakes over 0.5 goals 78.3% 77.8% 82.3% 0.94× 1.29
San Jose Earthquakes under 1.5 goals 54.8% 53.2% 48.7% 1.09× 1.88
San Jose Earthquakes over 1.5 goals 45.2% 46.8% 51.3% 0.91× 2.14
San Jose Earthquakes under 0.5 goals 21.7% 22.2% 17.7% 1.26× 4.50
San Jose Earthquakes over 2.5 goals 19.9% 17.8% 25.0% 0.71× 5.62
San Jose Earthquakes over 3.5 goals 6.9% 7.8% 9.4% 0.83× 12.87
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes under 1.5 in 1st half 85.9% 90.1% — — 1.11
San Jose Earthquakes under 0.5 in 1st half 51.8% 50.3% — — 1.99
San Jose Earthquakes over 0.5 in 1st half 48.2% 49.7% — — 2.01
San Jose Earthquakes over 1.5 in 1st half 14.1% 9.9% — — 10.08
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes scores more in 2nd half 38.2% 37.8% — — 2.64
San Jose Earthquakes scores equally in both 36.0% 37.8% — — 2.65
San Jose Earthquakes scores more in 1st half 25.8% 27.8% — — 3.60
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids (home no bet) 53.5% 51.4% 54.7% 0.94× 1.95
Draw (home no bet) 46.5% 48.6% 45.3% 1.07× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes even goals 52.3% 50.7% 51.0% 1.00× 1.97
San Jose Earthquakes odd goals 47.7% 49.3% 49.0% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 31.6% 33.2% — — 3.02
HT 1-0 20.6% 24.3% — — 4.12
HT 0-1 15.6% 18.5% — — 5.42
HT 1-1 10.4% 11.0% — — 9.12
HT 2-0 6.8% 6.9% — — 14.47
Any other HT score 4.3% 2.4% — — 41.93
HT 0-2 3.9% 2.4% — — 41.95
HT 2-1 3.4% 2.4% — — 41.99
HT 1-2 2.6% 2.4% — — 42.04
HT 2-2 0.8% 2.4% — — 42.15
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes at HT / San Jose Earthquakes at FT 25.8% 27.2% — — 3.68
Colorado Rapids at HT / Colorado Rapids at FT 16.1% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 15.9% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / San Jose Earthquakes at FT 15.1% 16.8% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Colorado Rapids at FT 12.0% 12.6% — — 7.91
San Jose Earthquakes at HT / Draw at FT 5.6% 6.1% — — 16.49
Colorado Rapids at HT / Draw at FT 4.9% 3.5% — — 28.79
Colorado Rapids at HT / San Jose Earthquakes at FT 2.4% 3.5% — — 28.88
San Jose Earthquakes at HT / Colorado Rapids at FT 2.3% 3.5% — — 28.89
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes to score last 51.4% 52.0% — — 1.92
Colorado Rapids to score last 41.7% 40.1% — — 2.50
No goal scored 6.9% 7.4% — — 13.48
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.1% 92.7% — — 1.08
San Jose Earthquakes to lead by 1 at any time 59.7% 55.0% — — 1.82
Colorado Rapids to lead by 1 at any time 48.4% 44.4% — — 2.25
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 47.0% 44.4% — — 2.25
San Jose Earthquakes to lead by 2 at any time 28.5% 25.4% — — 3.94
Colorado Rapids to lead by 2 at any time 18.8% 14.9% — — 6.71
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 16.7% 14.9% — — 6.72
San Jose Earthquakes to lead by 3 at any time 10.9% 10.5% — — 9.54
Colorado Rapids to lead by 3 at any time 5.8% 6.7% — — 15.03
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes most corners 63.5% 60.6% — — 1.65
Colorado Rapids most corners 27.3% 31.1% — — 3.22
Corners level 9.2% 8.3% — — 11.98
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.9% 87.4% 83.4% 1.05× 1.14
1-4 goals 78.3% 78.7% 73.2% 1.08× 1.27
2-6 goals 74.7% 72.4% 75.9% 0.95× 1.38
2-5 goals 70.8% 72.3% 69.0% 1.05× 1.38
1-3 goals 62.9% 63.3% 57.4% 1.10× 1.58
2-4 goals 62.2% 63.3% 58.7% 1.08× 1.58
3-6 goals 50.1% 53.2% 56.3% 0.94× 1.88
2-3 goals 46.9% 48.5% 43.0% 1.13× 2.06
3-5 goals 46.1% 48.5% 49.4% 0.98× 2.06
1-2 goals 40.7% 43.6% 34.2% 1.28× 2.29
3-4 goals 37.6% 39.2% 39.1% 1.00× 2.55
4-6 goals 27.9% 30.2% 33.0% 0.92× 3.31
4-5 goals 23.9% 24.5% 26.2% 0.94× 4.09
5-6 goals 12.5% 14.8% 17.2% 0.86× 6.76
7+ goals 2.3% 2.6% 4.1% 0.63× 39.15
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes never behind 44.7% 48.7% — — 2.05
Colorado Rapids never behind 33.5% 36.3% — — 2.76
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.6% 50.9% 50.5% 1.01× 1.96
Even number of goals 51.4% 49.1% 49.5% 0.99× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.2% 57.5% — — 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 44.8% 42.5% — — 2.36
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.4% 51.9% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.6% 48.1% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 93.7% 92.3% 89.1% 1.04× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 93.1% 92.3% 94.3% 0.98× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 85.2% 87.6% 78.8% 1.11× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 77.1% 77.3% 79.8% 0.97× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 69.8% 66.3% 63.0% 1.05× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 52.4% 52.5% 60.2% 0.87× 1.90
Under 2.5 goals 47.6% 47.5% 39.8% 1.19× 2.11
Over 3.5 goals 30.2% 33.7% 37.0% 0.91× 2.97
Under 1.5 goals 22.9% 22.7% 20.2% 1.13× 4.40
Over 4.5 goals 14.8% 12.4% 21.2% 0.59× 8.05
Under 0.5 goals 6.9% 7.7% 5.8% 1.34× 12.95
Over 5.5 goals 6.3% 7.7% 10.9% 0.71× 12.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.6% 97.2% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 93.1% 92.4% 87.8% 1.05× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 82.5% 81.1% 74.8% 1.08× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 69.5% 67.5% 74.9% 0.90× 1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 61.2% 61.9% 51.8% 1.19× 1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 38.8% 38.1% 48.2% 0.79× 2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 30.5% 32.5% 25.1% 1.30× 3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 17.5% 18.9% 25.2% 0.75× 5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 6.9% 7.6% 12.2% 0.62× 13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.4% 2.8% 4.4% 0.64× 35.60
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 88.9% 89.1% — — 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 68.4% 68.6% — — 1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half 67.8% 68.6% — — 1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half 32.2% 31.4% — — 3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half 31.6% 31.4% — — 3.18
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.1% 10.9% — — 9.14
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 80.0% 79.8% — — 1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 77.9% 79.7% — — 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 51.7% 53.3% — — 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 48.3% 46.7% — — 2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 22.1% 20.3% — — 4.93
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 20.0% 20.2% — — 4.94
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids not to score in both halves 79.4% 78.6% — — 1.27
San Jose Earthquakes not to score in both halves 71.9% 73.9% — — 1.35
San Jose Earthquakes to score in both halves 28.1% 26.1% — — 3.83
Colorado Rapids to score in both halves 20.6% 21.4% — — 4.68
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 56.4% 58.6% 61.3% 0.96× 1.71
Only San Jose Earthquakes scores 22.0% 22.3% 21.1% 1.06× 4.49
Only Colorado Rapids scores 14.8% 11.0% 12.1% 0.92× 9.05
Neither team scores 6.9% 7.1% 5.8% 1.24× 14.04
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.6% 22.6% 19.7% 1.14× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 22.2% 22.6% 23.3% 0.97× 4.43
Exactly 1 goals 16.1% 17.5% 14.5% 1.20× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 15.4% 17.5% 15.9% 1.10× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 8.5% 7.6% 10.4% 0.73× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 6.9% 7.6% 5.8% 1.32× 13.15
6 or more goals 6.3% 7.6% 10.9% 0.70× 13.15
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.2% 37.3% — — 2.68
No goals in 1st half 31.6% 35.6% — — 2.81
2 goals in 1st half 21.1% 21.4% — — 4.66
3+ goals in 1st half 11.1% 10.8% — — 9.23
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 48.3% 44.9% — — 2.23
1 goal in 2nd half 31.7% 33.7% — — 2.97
No goals in 2nd half 20.0% 22.5% — — 4.44
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids not to win both halves 93.2% 94.2% — — 1.06
San Jose Earthquakes not to win both halves 87.8% 88.0% — — 1.14
San Jose Earthquakes to win both halves 12.2% 12.0% — — 8.32
Colorado Rapids to win both halves 6.8% 5.8% — — 17.10
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Jose Earthquakes to win either half 57.4% 59.1% — — 1.69
Colorado Rapids to win neither half 54.7% 54.3% — — 1.84
Colorado Rapids to win either half 45.3% 45.7% — — 2.19
San Jose Earthquakes to win neither half 42.6% 40.9% — — 2.45
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids not to win to nil 85.2% 88.1% 87.9% 1.00× 1.14
San Jose Earthquakes not to win to nil 78.0% 78.1% 78.9% 0.99× 1.28
San Jose Earthquakes to win to nil 22.0% 21.9% 21.1% 1.04× 4.57
Colorado Rapids to win to nil 14.8% 11.9% 12.1% 0.99× 8.40
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 26.4% 27.9% 24.8% 1.12× 3.59
San Jose Earthquakes by 1 21.4% 24.1% 22.2% 1.09× 4.15
Colorado Rapids by 1 17.3% 17.0% 17.1% 0.99× 5.87
San Jose Earthquakes by 2 13.2% 11.8% 12.7% 0.92× 8.51
Colorado Rapids by 2 8.7% 7.2% 8.6% 0.84× 13.90
San Jose Earthquakes by 3+ 8.7% 7.2% 10.6% 0.68× 13.90
Colorado Rapids by 3+ 4.3% 2.7% 4.5% 0.60× 36.80
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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