San Lorenzo v Platense — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

San Lorenzo

20:00 UTC

Platense

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 27 Oct, 10:57 · 297h before kick-off

San Lorenzo win

45.3%

model 42.9%

Draw

30.9%

model 32.4%

Platense win

23.8%

model 24.7%

453124

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 16.3%
0-0 15.7%
1-1 13.6%
0-1 11.1%
2-0 9.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	29.4%	Under 2.5	70.6%
BTTS yes	36.9%	BTTS no	63.1%
San Lorenzo 1+	67.3%	San Lorenzo 2+	30.7%
Platense 1+	53.9%	Platense 2+	18.2%

Expected goals 1.12 – 0.78. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

23/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Under 2.5 goals

Over/Under · usually 66%

71.9% fair odds 1.39

moderate signal · 1675 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 1.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

83.9% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 385 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out San Lorenzo.

Risk factors

The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0026 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.

Why the model thinks this

The price

San Lorenzo have an estimated 45.3% win probability, against 30.9% for the draw and 23.8% for Platense. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.12 for San Lorenzo and 0.78 for Platense.

Why San Lorenzo

Nothing in the data singles out San Lorenzo.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 30.9%. A combined 1.89 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Platense can win

Nothing in the data singles out Platense.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for San Lorenzo, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Platense, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

San Lorenzo: 56% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Platense: 47% possession, 14.4 shots a match, 9.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

San Lorenzo are the model's most likely outcome at 45.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 16.3%. Confidence 23/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	433225	1.12–0.78	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	413623	0.93–0.62	0-0 22%	20%	28%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo to win	41.0%	42.9%	41.8%	1.03×	2.33
Draw	36.4%	36.3%	30.7%	1.18×	2.75
Platense to win	22.6%	24.5%	27.6%	0.89×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo & not both score	32.3%	29.6%	27.7%	1.07×	3.38
Draw & not both score	21.8%	21.8%	14.8%	1.47×	4.59
Platense & not both score	17.5%	18.0%	17.1%	1.05×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	14.6%	13.3%	16.0%	0.83×	7.54
San Lorenzo & both teams score	8.7%	8.3%	14.3%	0.58×	12.00
Platense & both teams score	5.1%	8.3%	10.6%	0.79×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo & under 3.5	37.1%	34.9%	34.8%	1.00×	2.87
Draw & under 2.5	34.5%	30.8%	28.2%	1.09×	3.25
Draw & under 3.5	34.5%	30.8%	28.2%	1.09×	3.25
San Lorenzo & under 2.5	28.6%	26.1%	23.6%	1.10×	3.84
San Lorenzo & over 1.5	21.7%	21.6%	27.8%	0.78×	4.63
Draw & under 1.5	21.8%	21.6%	14.8%	1.46×	4.63
Platense & under 3.5	21.1%	21.6%	23.5%	0.92×	4.63
San Lorenzo & under 1.5	19.3%	18.0%	14.1%	1.27×	5.55
Platense & under 2.5	16.5%	18.0%	14.6%	1.23×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	14.6%	12.8%	16.0%	0.80×	7.79
San Lorenzo & over 2.5	12.4%	12.8%	18.4%	0.70×	7.79
Platense & under 1.5	12.5%	12.8%	10.3%	1.25×	7.79
Platense & over 1.5	10.1%	12.8%	17.4%	0.74×	7.79
Platense & over 2.5	6.1%	7.9%	13.1%	0.60×	12.63
San Lorenzo & over 3.5	3.8%	4.8%	7.2%	0.67×	20.82
Draw & over 2.5	1.9%	4.8%	2.6%	1.83×	20.83
Draw & over 3.5	1.9%	4.8%	2.6%	1.83×	20.83
Platense & over 3.5	1.5%	4.8%	4.2%	1.14×	20.83

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo (1UP)	50.3%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Platense (1UP)	33.0%	33.0%	—	—	3.03

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo (2UP)	41.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Platense (2UP)	22.6%	23.8%	—	—	4.20

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	49.4%	45.4%	—	—	2.21
San Lorenzo to win 2nd half	31.0%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
Platense to win 2nd half	19.7%	18.0%	—	—	5.55

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Platense under 1.5 in 2nd half	94.7%	92.0%	—	—	1.09
Platense under 0.5 in 2nd half	69.1%	69.8%	—	—	1.43
Platense over 0.5 in 2nd half	30.9%	30.2%	—	—	3.31
Platense over 1.5 in 2nd half	5.3%	8.0%	—	—	12.55

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo under 1.5 in 2nd half	90.0%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
San Lorenzo under 0.5 in 2nd half	58.7%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
San Lorenzo over 0.5 in 2nd half	41.3%	41.9%	—	—	2.38
San Lorenzo over 1.5 in 2nd half	10.0%	10.9%	—	—	9.14

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Platense (+2.5)	95.8%	96.3%	95.0%	1.01×	1.04
Platense (+1.5)	84.6%	82.6%	82.3%	1.00×	1.21
San Lorenzo (+0.5)	77.4%	78.5%	72.4%	1.08×	1.27
Platense (+0.5)	59.0%	57.1%	58.2%	0.98×	1.75
San Lorenzo (-0.5)	41.0%	42.9%	41.8%	1.03×	2.33
Platense (-0.5)	22.6%	21.5%	27.6%	0.78×	4.65
San Lorenzo (-1.5)	15.4%	17.4%	17.7%	0.99×	5.74
San Lorenzo (-2.5)	4.2%	3.7%	5.0%	0.74×	27.07

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Platense to concede	60.7%	67.5%	68.2%	0.99×	1.48
Platense clean sheet	39.3%	32.5%	31.8%	1.02×	3.08

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Platense clean sheet in 1st half	66.9%	71.2%	—	—	1.40
Platense to concede in 1st half	33.1%	28.8%	—	—	3.48

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Platense clean sheet in 2nd half	58.7%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Platense to concede in 2nd half	41.3%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Platense under 6.5 corners	87.7%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Platense under 5.5 corners	78.8%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
Platense over 2.5 corners	69.2%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Platense under 4.5 corners	65.9%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Platense over 3.5 corners	50.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Platense under 3.5 corners	49.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Platense over 4.5 corners	34.1%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Platense under 2.5 corners	30.8%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Platense over 5.5 corners	21.2%	23.9%	—	—	4.18
Platense over 6.5 corners	12.3%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Platense under 3.5 goals	99.6%	97.5%	98.9%	0.99×	1.03
Platense under 2.5 goals	97.5%	97.5%	93.4%	1.04×	1.03
Platense under 1.5 goals	87.3%	87.8%	78.2%	1.12×	1.14
Platense under 0.5 goals	54.1%	53.6%	42.4%	1.26×	1.87
Platense over 0.5 goals	45.9%	46.5%	57.6%	0.81×	2.15
Platense over 1.5 goals	12.7%	12.2%	21.8%	0.56×	8.20
Platense over 2.5 goals	2.5%	2.5%	6.6%	0.38×	39.84
Platense over 3.5 goals	0.4%	2.5%	1.1%	2.20×	39.95

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Platense under 1.5 in 1st half	97.4%	96.2%	—	—	1.04
Platense under 0.5 in 1st half	78.2%	75.2%	—	—	1.33
Platense over 0.5 in 1st half	21.8%	24.8%	—	—	4.04
Platense over 1.5 in 1st half	2.6%	3.8%	—	—	26.66

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Platense scores equally in both	59.1%	54.1%	—	—	1.85
Platense scores more in 2nd half	25.2%	26.4%	—	—	3.79
Platense scores more in 1st half	15.7%	17.9%	—	—	5.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo (away no bet)	52.9%	51.7%	57.7%	0.90×	1.93
Draw (away no bet)	47.1%	48.3%	42.3%	1.14×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Platense even goals	64.6%	59.2%	58.4%	1.01×	1.69
Platense odd goals	35.4%	40.8%	41.6%	0.98×	2.45

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	96.9%	96.9%	—	—	1.03
Both halves over 1.5 goals	3.1%	3.1%	—	—	32.62

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	66.3%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Not both halves under 1.5	33.7%	32.2%	—	—	3.10

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	29.8%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
San Lorenzo to score 2+ in a row	20.9%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Platense to score 2+ in a row	10.1%	12.1%	—	—	8.27
Either team to score 3+ in a row	7.0%	5.5%	—	—	18.22
San Lorenzo to score 3+ in a row	5.3%	5.4%	—	—	18.35
Platense to score 3+ in a row	1.6%	2.5%	—	—	39.95

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo corners (+3.5)	87.6%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Platense corners (+3.5)	85.8%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
San Lorenzo corners (+2.5)	80.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Platense corners (+2.5)	77.7%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
San Lorenzo corners (+1.5)	70.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Platense corners (+1.5)	67.2%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
San Lorenzo corners (-1.5)	32.8%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Platense corners (-1.5)	29.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
San Lorenzo corners (-2.5)	22.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Platense corners (-2.5)	19.9%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
San Lorenzo corners (-3.5)	14.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Platense corners (-3.5)	12.4%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	61.8%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
9-11 corners	25.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	12.9%	21.1%	—	—	4.73

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	91.7%	83.4%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	87.1%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 10.5 corners	80.6%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 9.5 corners	72.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 8.5 corners	61.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	50.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 7.5 corners	49.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 8.5 corners	38.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 9.5 corners	27.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 10.5 corners	19.4%	19.3%	—	—	5.17
Over 11.5 corners	12.9%	16.9%	—	—	5.91
Over 12.5 corners	8.3%	16.6%	—	—	6.03

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-0	21.8%	20.1%	14.8%	1.36×	4.97
1-0	19.3%	13.9%	14.1%	0.98×	7.22
0-1	12.5%	11.5%	10.3%	1.12×	8.71
1-1	12.8%	11.5%	13.5%	0.85×	8.71
2-0	9.3%	7.4%	9.6%	0.77×	13.51
2-1	5.7%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.51
0-2	4.0%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.30
0-3	0.8%	1.7%	2.1%	0.84×	58.31
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.6%	3.01×	58.32
1-2	3.8%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	58.30
1-3	0.8%	1.7%	1.9%	0.88×	58.31
1-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.01×	58.32
2-2	1.8%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.31
2-3	0.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.32
2-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	15.04×	58.32
3-0	2.9%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.30
3-1	1.8%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.31
3-2	0.5%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.32
3-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.01×	58.32
3-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	15.04×	58.32
4-0	0.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.50×	58.32
4-1	0.4%	1.7%	0.8%	2.15×	58.32
4-2	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.01×	58.32
4-3	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	7.52×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	7.52×	58.32
Any other score	0.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo (2nd half DNB)	61.2%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Platense (2nd half DNB)	38.8%	37.2%	—	—	2.69

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo leading at HT (DNB)	64.0%	66.6%	—	—	1.50
Platense leading at HT (DNB)	36.0%	33.4%	—	—	3.00

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo or draw (1X)	77.4%	75.5%	72.4%	1.04×	1.32
San Lorenzo or Platense (12)	63.6%	63.7%	69.3%	0.92×	1.57
Platense or draw (X2)	59.0%	57.1%	58.2%	0.98×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo or draw at HT	84.8%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Platense or draw at HT	73.0%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
San Lorenzo or Platense at HT	42.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo or draw (1UP)	77.4%	83.6%	—	—	1.20
Platense or draw (1UP)	59.0%	63.1%	—	—	1.58

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo or draw in 2nd half	80.3%	82.0%	—	—	1.22
Platense or draw in 2nd half	69.0%	66.0%	—	—	1.51
San Lorenzo or Platense in 2nd half	50.6%	54.6%	—	—	1.83

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	78.1%	78.6%	—	—	1.27
Neither half drawn	21.9%	21.4%	—	—	4.68

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo (DNB)	64.5%	62.7%	60.3%	1.04×	1.59
Platense (DNB)	35.5%	37.3%	39.7%	0.94×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo to score first	47.2%	45.8%	—	—	2.18
Platense to score first	31.1%	27.6%	—	—	3.62
No goal scored	21.8%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	71.6%	62.4%	59.4%	1.05×	1.60
Both teams to score	28.4%	37.6%	40.6%	0.93×	2.66

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	66.9%	57.1%	52.8%	1.08×	1.75
Both score & over 2.5	15.7%	21.5%	27.3%	0.79×	4.66
Both score & under 2.5	12.8%	12.4%	13.5%	0.92×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	4.7%	4.7%	6.7%	0.71×	21.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	97.0%	91.6%	94.1%	0.97×	1.09
Both teams to score 2+	3.0%	8.4%	5.9%	1.41×	11.96

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	87.1%	87.4%	—	—	1.14
Both teams to score in 2nd half	12.9%	12.6%	—	—	7.93

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	80.7%	81.2%	—	—	1.23
Both score 2nd half only	12.0%	10.7%	—	—	9.32
Both score 1st half only	6.4%	6.8%	—	—	14.79
Both score in both halves	0.9%	4.8%	—	—	21.01

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	92.7%	92.9%	—	—	1.08
Both teams to score by HT	7.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.03

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	71.4%	74.7%	—	—	1.34
A goal in each half	28.6%	25.3%	—	—	3.96

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1 goals	53.6%	41.6%	39.0%	1.07×	2.40
2-3 goals	39.2%	35.1%	47.3%	0.74×	2.85
4-6 goals	7.1%	7.6%	13.5%	0.57×	13.13
7+ goals	0.1%	1.8%	0.5%	4.02×	54.56

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Platense to score exactly 0	54.1%	47.2%	42.4%	1.11×	2.12
Platense to score exactly 1	33.2%	33.8%	35.9%	0.94×	2.96
Platense to score exactly 2	10.2%	12.9%	15.3%	0.84×	7.77
Platense to score 3+	2.5%	4.6%	6.6%	0.69×	21.91

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo to score exactly 0	39.3%	35.6%	31.8%	1.12×	2.81
San Lorenzo to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.5%	36.5%	0.97×	2.81
San Lorenzo to score exactly 2	17.1%	18.8%	21.8%	0.86×	5.32
San Lorenzo to score 3+	6.9%	10.3%	10.1%	1.02×	9.68

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	57.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
San Lorenzo leading at HT	27.0%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
Platense leading at HT	15.2%	15.8%	—	—	6.33

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo -1: 2	59.0%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
San Lorenzo -1: X	25.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
San Lorenzo -1: 1	15.4%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Platense (0:1)	59.0%	55.9%	58.2%	0.96×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	25.6%	27.0%	24.3%	1.11×	3.70
San Lorenzo (0:1)	15.4%	17.8%	17.7%	1.01×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Platense (0:2)	84.6%	83.0%	82.3%	1.01×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.2%	11.0%	12.8%	0.86×	9.11
San Lorenzo (0:2)	4.2%	3.8%	5.0%	0.75×	26.65

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Platense (0:3)	95.8%	96.6%	95.0%	1.02×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.3%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	41.99
San Lorenzo (0:3)	0.9%	2.4%	1.7%	1.39×	42.10

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Platense (0:4)	99.1%	98.1%	98.3%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.8%	1.2%	1.3%	0.97×	81.89
San Lorenzo (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	0.6%	2.14×	81.95

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo (1:0)	77.4%	78.6%	72.4%	1.08×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	16.6%	17.1%	18.6%	0.92×	5.85
Platense (1:0)	6.0%	6.9%	9.1%	0.75×	14.52

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo (2:0)	94.0%	94.0%	90.9%	1.03×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.8%	2.3%	6.3%	0.37×	43.62
Platense (2:0)	1.1%	2.3%	3.0%	0.77×	43.86

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	39.1%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
Halves equal	36.4%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
1st half highest scoring	24.5%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo clean sheet	54.1%	53.2%	42.4%	1.25×	1.88
San Lorenzo to concede	45.9%	46.8%	57.6%	0.81×	2.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo clean sheet in 1st half	78.2%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
San Lorenzo to concede in 1st half	21.8%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo clean sheet in 2nd half	69.1%	67.0%	—	—	1.49
San Lorenzo to concede in 2nd half	30.9%	33.0%	—	—	3.03

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo under 6.5 corners	86.3%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
San Lorenzo under 5.5 corners	76.9%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
San Lorenzo over 2.5 corners	71.1%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
San Lorenzo under 4.5 corners	63.6%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
San Lorenzo over 3.5 corners	53.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
San Lorenzo under 3.5 corners	46.9%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
San Lorenzo over 4.5 corners	36.4%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
San Lorenzo under 2.5 corners	28.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
San Lorenzo over 5.5 corners	23.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
San Lorenzo over 6.5 corners	13.7%	13.8%	—	—	7.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo under 3.5 goals	98.5%	96.4%	97.1%	0.99×	1.04
San Lorenzo under 2.5 goals	93.1%	92.2%	89.9%	1.03×	1.08
San Lorenzo under 1.5 goals	76.0%	77.8%	68.2%	1.14×	1.29
San Lorenzo over 0.5 goals	60.7%	63.6%	68.2%	0.93×	1.57
San Lorenzo under 0.5 goals	39.3%	36.4%	31.8%	1.14×	2.75
San Lorenzo over 1.5 goals	24.0%	22.2%	31.8%	0.70×	4.50
San Lorenzo over 2.5 goals	6.9%	7.8%	10.1%	0.77×	12.84
San Lorenzo over 3.5 goals	1.5%	3.6%	2.9%	1.27×	27.62

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo under 1.5 in 1st half	93.8%	94.9%	—	—	1.05
San Lorenzo under 0.5 in 1st half	66.9%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
San Lorenzo over 0.5 in 1st half	33.1%	30.6%	—	—	3.27
San Lorenzo over 1.5 in 1st half	6.2%	5.1%	—	—	19.45

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo scores equally in both	48.2%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
San Lorenzo scores more in 2nd half	30.4%	33.1%	—	—	3.02
San Lorenzo scores more in 1st half	21.4%	20.9%	—	—	4.78

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	61.7%	60.0%	52.6%	1.14×	1.67
Platense (home no bet)	38.3%	40.0%	47.4%	0.84×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo even goals	57.7%	55.3%	55.6%	0.99×	1.81
San Lorenzo odd goals	42.3%	44.7%	44.4%	1.01×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	52.4%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
HT 1-0	20.9%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	12.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.10
HT 1-1	5.3%	6.9%	—	—	14.58
HT 2-0	4.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.15
HT 0-2	1.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.32
HT 2-1	1.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.35
Any other HT score	1.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.35
HT 1-2	0.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.38
HT 2-2	0.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.41

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	29.1%	27.4%	—	—	3.64
San Lorenzo at HT / San Lorenzo at FT	22.3%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
Draw at HT / San Lorenzo at FT	17.7%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Platense at FT	11.1%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Platense at HT / Platense at FT	10.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
San Lorenzo at HT / Draw at FT	3.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.89
Platense at HT / Draw at FT	3.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.91
Platense at HT / San Lorenzo at FT	1.0%	3.4%	—	—	29.00
San Lorenzo at HT / Platense at FT	0.8%	3.4%	—	—	29.01

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo to score last	47.2%	46.3%	—	—	2.16
Platense to score last	31.0%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
No goal scored	21.8%	25.4%	—	—	3.94

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	78.2%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
San Lorenzo to lead by 1 at any time	50.3%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Platense to lead by 1 at any time	33.0%	29.7%	—	—	3.36
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	25.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
San Lorenzo to lead by 2 at any time	18.0%	14.8%	—	—	6.74
Platense to lead by 2 at any time	7.8%	6.7%	—	—	15.02
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	6.2%	6.6%	—	—	15.10
San Lorenzo to lead by 3 at any time	4.8%	1.6%	—	—	60.67
Platense to lead by 3 at any time	1.4%	1.6%	—	—	63.93

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo most corners	45.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Platense most corners	41.9%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	12.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	77.7%	78.7%	84.3%	0.93×	1.27
1-4 goals	76.1%	78.7%	79.9%	0.98×	1.27
1-3 goals	71.0%	72.3%	71.5%	1.01×	1.38
1-2 goals	57.9%	59.1%	51.4%	1.15×	1.69
2-6 goals	46.3%	48.4%	60.7%	0.80×	2.06
2-5 goals	45.9%	48.4%	60.1%	0.81×	2.06
2-4 goals	44.3%	43.6%	55.8%	0.78×	2.29
2-3 goals	39.2%	39.2%	47.3%	0.83×	2.55
3-6 goals	20.2%	24.4%	33.5%	0.73×	4.09
3-5 goals	19.8%	18.8%	33.0%	0.57×	5.31
3-4 goals	18.3%	18.8%	28.6%	0.66×	5.31
4-6 goals	7.1%	8.9%	13.5%	0.66×	11.26
4-5 goals	6.7%	8.9%	12.9%	0.69×	11.27
5-6 goals	2.0%	2.6%	5.0%	0.51×	39.18
7+ goals	0.1%	2.5%	0.5%	5.58×	39.27

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo never behind	45.2%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Platense never behind	27.9%	29.9%	—	—	3.35

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.6%	50.9%	48.9%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	53.4%	49.1%	51.1%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	63.9%	61.2%	—	—	1.63
Odd goals in 1st half	36.1%	38.8%	—	—	2.58

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	58.6%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Odd goals in 2nd half	41.4%	38.7%	—	—	2.59

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	99.5%	95.4%	99.0%	0.96×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	97.9%	95.4%	94.6%	1.01×	1.05
Under 3.5 goals	92.8%	92.3%	86.2%	1.07×	1.08
Under 2.5 goals	79.6%	77.3%	66.1%	1.17×	1.29
Over 0.5 goals	78.2%	77.3%	85.2%	0.91×	1.29
Under 1.5 goals	53.6%	52.5%	39.0%	1.35×	1.90
Over 1.5 goals	46.4%	47.5%	61.0%	0.78×	2.11
Under 0.5 goals	21.8%	22.7%	14.8%	1.53×	4.40
Over 2.5 goals	20.4%	22.7%	33.9%	0.67×	4.41
Over 3.5 goals	7.2%	7.7%	13.8%	0.56×	12.94
Over 4.5 goals	2.1%	4.6%	5.4%	0.85×	21.84
Over 5.5 goals	0.5%	4.6%	1.0%	4.46×	21.87

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.9%	97.2%	99.5%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	99.5%	97.2%	98.9%	0.98×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	97.8%	97.2%	94.1%	1.03×	1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	91.7%	92.4%	82.7%	1.12×	1.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	72.5%	72.4%	53.5%	1.35×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	27.5%	27.6%	46.5%	0.59×	3.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	8.3%	7.6%	17.3%	0.44×	13.18
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	2.2%	2.8%	5.9%	0.48×	35.63
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	0.5%	2.8%	1.1%	2.61×	35.68
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.1%	2.8%	0.5%	6.11×	35.69

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	97.2%	97.7%	—	—	1.02
Under 1.5 in 1st half	86.1%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Under 0.5 in 1st half	52.4%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 0.5 in 1st half	47.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 1.5 in 1st half	13.9%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
Over 2.5 in 1st half	2.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.63

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	93.7%	90.9%	—	—	1.10
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	77.0%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	59.2%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	40.8%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	23.0%	20.4%	—	—	4.89
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	6.3%	9.1%	—	—	10.94

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Platense not to score in both halves	93.3%	90.8%	—	—	1.10
San Lorenzo not to score in both halves	86.3%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
San Lorenzo to score in both halves	13.7%	14.5%	—	—	6.91
Platense to score in both halves	6.7%	9.2%	—	—	10.83

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Only San Lorenzo scores	32.3%	33.3%	27.7%	1.20×	3.01
Both teams score	28.4%	26.1%	40.6%	0.64×	3.83
Neither team scores	21.8%	22.2%	14.8%	1.50×	4.50
Only Platense scores	17.5%	16.0%	17.1%	0.94×	6.24

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 1 goals	31.8%	25.4%	24.3%	1.05×	3.94
Exactly 2 goals	26.0%	24.9%	27.3%	0.91×	4.02
Exactly 0 goals	21.8%	22.6%	14.8%	1.52×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	13.2%	12.1%	20.2%	0.60×	8.25
Exactly 4 goals	5.1%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.15
Exactly 5 goals	1.6%	4.5%	4.4%	1.01×	22.37
6 or more goals	0.5%	4.5%	1.0%	4.35×	22.39

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	52.4%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
1 goal in 1st half	33.7%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	11.1%	10.8%	—	—	9.25
3+ goals in 1st half	2.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.63

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 2nd half	40.8%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
1 goal in 2nd half	36.2%	39.7%	—	—	2.52
2+ goals in 2nd half	23.0%	22.9%	—	—	4.37

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Platense not to win both halves	97.0%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
San Lorenzo not to win both halves	91.6%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
San Lorenzo to win both halves	8.4%	5.9%	—	—	17.05
Platense to win both halves	3.0%	2.8%	—	—	35.98

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Platense to win neither half	68.2%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
San Lorenzo to win neither half	50.5%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
San Lorenzo to win either half	49.5%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Platense to win either half	31.8%	32.1%	—	—	3.12

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Platense not to win to nil	82.5%	83.1%	82.9%	1.00×	1.20
San Lorenzo not to win to nil	67.7%	69.7%	72.3%	0.96×	1.44
San Lorenzo to win to nil	32.3%	30.3%	27.7%	1.09×	3.30
Platense to win to nil	17.5%	16.9%	17.1%	0.99×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	36.4%	34.7%	30.7%	1.13×	2.89
San Lorenzo by 1	25.6%	27.9%	24.3%	1.15×	3.59
Platense by 1	16.6%	17.0%	18.6%	0.92×	5.87
San Lorenzo by 2	11.2%	11.8%	12.8%	0.92×	8.51
Platense by 2	4.8%	2.7%	6.3%	0.43×	36.82
San Lorenzo by 3+	4.2%	2.7%	5.0%	0.54×	36.84
Platense by 3+	1.1%	2.7%	3.0%	0.91×	36.94