San Marino v Albania — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 29 September 2026 · EUR-Nations League · 2627
EUR-Nations League results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 10.0%
- 1-2 10.0%
- 0-1 9.7%
- 0-2 9.7%
- 1-3 6.6%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 58.3% | Under 2.5 | 41.7% |
| BTTS yes | 55.6% | BTTS no | 44.4% |
| San Marino 1+ | 64.3% | San Marino 2+ | 27.6% |
| Albania 1+ | 86.4% | Albania 2+ | 59.3% |
Expected goals 1.03 – 2.00. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Albania have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while San Marino have allowed 1.35.
- Away from home Albania average 1.35 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 0/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- San Marino have only 0 matches on record.
- Albania have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Albania have an estimated 59.7% win probability, against 21.3% for the draw and 19.0% for San Marino. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.03 for San Marino and 2.00 for Albania.
Why San Marino
San Marino have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Albania have allowed 1.35. At home San Marino average 1.35 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 21.3%.
Why Albania can win
Albania have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while San Marino have allowed 1.35. Away from home Albania average 1.35 xG a match.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for San Marino, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Albania, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
San Marino: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Albania: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·
Albania are the model's most likely outcome at 59.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.0%. Confidence 0/100, data quality 0/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.03–2.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.