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Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Kashima Antlers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 December 2026 · JPN-J League · 2627

JPN-J League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Sanfrecce Hiroshima win
49.3%
model 48.6%
Draw
23.0%
model 24.6%
Kashima Antlers win
27.7%
model 26.8%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 11.7%
  2. 1-0 11.1%
  3. 2-1 9.4%
  4. 2-0 8.5%
  5. 0-1 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.550.0% Under 2.550.0%
BTTS yes52.6% BTTS no47.4%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+79.3% Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+46.7%
Kashima Antlers 1+66.7% Kashima Antlers 2+30.1%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.10. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
2-6 goals
Multi goal · usually 68%
73.4% fair odds 1.36
moderate signal · 3256 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both to score by HT
GG/NG half time
82.4% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 1272 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Sanfrecce Hiroshima have an estimated 49.3% win probability, against 27.7% for Kashima Antlers and 23.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.58 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 1.10 for Kashima Antlers.

Why Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Kashima Antlers can win

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Sanfrecce Hiroshima, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Kashima Antlers, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 53% possession, 18.8 shots a match, 8.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Kashima Antlers: 59% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 10.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Sanfrecce Hiroshima are the model's most likely outcome at 49.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.7%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.58–1.10 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.57–1.02 1-0 12% 48% 50%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win 50.4% 51.5% 43.0% 1.20× 1.94
Kashima Antlers to win 24.9% 24.5% 31.1% 0.79× 4.09
Draw 24.7% 24.5% 26.1% 0.94× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima & not both score 28.8% 25.2% 25.0% 1.01× 3.97
Sanfrecce Hiroshima & both teams score 21.6% 21.8% 18.1% 1.20× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 17.5% 18.0% 19.2% 0.94× 5.56
Kashima Antlers & not both score 13.6% 13.3% 17.8% 0.74× 7.54
Kashima Antlers & both teams score 11.3% 13.3% 13.4% 0.99× 7.54
Draw & not both score 7.2% 8.3% 7.0% 1.19× 12.00
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima & over 1.5 38.4% 34.9% 30.3% 1.15× 2.87
Sanfrecce Hiroshima & under 3.5 35.5% 34.9% 33.1% 1.05× 2.87
Sanfrecce Hiroshima & over 2.5 29.1% 26.1% 23.1% 1.13× 3.84
Sanfrecce Hiroshima & under 2.5 21.3% 21.6% 20.0% 1.08× 4.63
Draw & under 2.5 18.9% 18.0% 20.3% 0.89× 5.55
Draw & under 3.5 18.9% 18.0% 20.3% 0.89× 5.55
Kashima Antlers & under 3.5 19.3% 18.0% 23.4% 0.77× 5.55
Draw & over 1.5 17.5% 18.0% 19.2% 0.94× 5.55
Kashima Antlers & over 1.5 17.0% 18.0% 21.3% 0.85× 5.56
Sanfrecce Hiroshima & over 3.5 14.9% 12.8% 10.0% 1.28× 7.79
Kashima Antlers & over 2.5 13.1% 12.8% 17.8% 0.72× 7.79
Sanfrecce Hiroshima & under 1.5 12.0% 12.8% 12.8% 1.00× 7.79
Kashima Antlers & under 2.5 11.8% 12.8% 13.4% 0.96× 7.79
Kashima Antlers & under 1.5 7.9% 7.9% 10.0% 0.79× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 7.2% 7.9% 7.0% 1.13× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 5.8% 7.9% 5.9% 1.33× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 5.8% 7.9% 5.9% 1.33× 12.63
Kashima Antlers & over 3.5 5.6% 7.9% 7.8% 1.01× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (1UP) 64.1% 63.0% — — 1.59
Kashima Antlers (1UP) 41.7% 38.6% — — 2.59
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (2UP) 50.4% 55.1% — — 1.81
Kashima Antlers (2UP) 24.9% 24.0% — — 4.17
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win 2nd half 40.3% 41.8% — — 2.39
2nd half drawn 35.9% 36.4% — — 2.75
Kashima Antlers to win 2nd half 23.8% 24.4% — — 4.10
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers under 1.5 in 2nd half 87.4% 87.1% — — 1.15
Kashima Antlers under 0.5 in 2nd half 54.2% 52.5% — — 1.90
Kashima Antlers over 0.5 in 2nd half 45.8% 47.5% — — 2.11
Kashima Antlers over 1.5 in 2nd half 12.6% 12.9% — — 7.76
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 1.5 in 2nd half 77.4% 75.2% — — 1.33
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 0.5 in 2nd half 59.2% 58.3% — — 1.72
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 0.5 in 2nd half 40.8% 41.7% — — 2.40
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 1.5 in 2nd half 22.6% 24.8% — — 4.03
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers (+2.5) 89.2% 88.5% 93.8% 0.94× 1.13
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (+0.5) 75.1% 78.5% 68.9% 1.14× 1.27
Kashima Antlers (+1.5) 74.0% 73.7% 81.9% 0.90× 1.36
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-0.5) 50.4% 52.4% 43.0% 1.22× 1.91
Kashima Antlers (+0.5) 49.6% 47.6% 57.0% 0.83× 2.10
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5) 26.0% 26.3% 18.1% 1.45× 3.80
Kashima Antlers (-0.5) 24.9% 21.5% 31.1% 0.69× 4.65
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5) 10.8% 11.5% 6.3% 1.84× 8.68
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers to concede 79.2% 78.8% 75.3% 1.05× 1.27
Kashima Antlers clean sheet 20.8% 21.2% 24.7% 0.86× 4.71
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers clean sheet in 1st half 50.9% 50.8% — — 1.97
Kashima Antlers to concede in 1st half 49.1% 49.2% — — 2.03
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers to concede in 2nd half 59.2% 57.5% — — 1.74
Kashima Antlers clean sheet in 2nd half 40.8% 42.5% — — 2.35
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers under 6.5 corners 93.8% 89.9% — — 1.11
Kashima Antlers under 5.5 corners 87.5% 85.2% — — 1.17
Kashima Antlers under 4.5 corners 77.0% 76.0% — — 1.32
Kashima Antlers under 3.5 corners 61.2% 61.7% — — 1.62
Kashima Antlers over 2.5 corners 58.9% 57.2% — — 1.75
Kashima Antlers under 2.5 corners 41.1% 42.8% — — 2.34
Kashima Antlers over 3.5 corners 38.8% 38.3% — — 2.61
Kashima Antlers over 4.5 corners 23.0% 24.0% — — 4.17
Kashima Antlers over 5.5 corners 12.5% 14.8% — — 6.77
Kashima Antlers over 6.5 corners 6.2% 10.1% — — 9.91
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers under 3.5 goals 98.0% 97.5% 95.9% 1.02× 1.03
Kashima Antlers under 2.5 goals 91.6% 92.3% 87.8% 1.05× 1.08
Kashima Antlers under 1.5 goals 72.8% 71.8% 68.3% 1.05× 1.39
Kashima Antlers over 0.5 goals 64.0% 63.2% 68.1% 0.93× 1.58
Kashima Antlers under 0.5 goals 36.0% 36.8% 31.9% 1.15× 2.72
Kashima Antlers over 1.5 goals 27.2% 28.2% 31.7% 0.89× 3.55
Kashima Antlers over 2.5 goals 8.4% 7.7% 12.2% 0.63× 13.06
Kashima Antlers over 3.5 goals 2.0% 2.5% 4.1% 0.62× 39.87
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers under 1.5 in 1st half 93.6% 94.0% — — 1.06
Kashima Antlers under 0.5 in 1st half 66.5% 70.2% — — 1.42
Kashima Antlers over 0.5 in 1st half 33.5% 29.8% — — 3.36
Kashima Antlers over 1.5 in 1st half 6.4% 6.0% — — 16.57
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers scores equally in both 45.6% 48.1% — — 2.08
Kashima Antlers scores more in 2nd half 34.0% 33.4% — — 3.00
Kashima Antlers scores more in 1st half 20.4% 21.8% — — 4.60
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (away no bet) 67.1% 66.4% 62.2% 1.07× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 32.9% 33.6% 37.8% 0.89× 2.98
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers even goals 56.5% 56.9% 54.2% 1.05× 1.76
Kashima Antlers odd goals 43.5% 43.1% 45.8% 0.94× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 86.9% 87.9% — — 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 13.1% 12.1% — — 8.23
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 60.8% 57.4% — — 1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals 39.3% 42.6% — — 2.35
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 53.8% 51.0% — — 1.96
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score 2+ in a row 39.2% 36.6% — — 2.73
Kashima Antlers to score 2+ in a row 19.8% 16.2% — — 6.17
Either team to score 3+ in a row 19.0% 16.2% — — 6.18
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score 3+ in a row 14.6% 12.2% — — 8.19
Kashima Antlers to score 3+ in a row 4.6% 2.6% — — 38.18
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima corners (+3.5) 97.4% 95.7% — — 1.04
Sanfrecce Hiroshima corners (+2.5) 95.0% 89.6% — — 1.12
Sanfrecce Hiroshima corners (+1.5) 91.0% 89.6% — — 1.12
Sanfrecce Hiroshima corners (-1.5) 67.1% 65.9% — — 1.52
Sanfrecce Hiroshima corners (-2.5) 56.0% 57.2% — — 1.75
Kashima Antlers corners (+3.5) 55.3% 57.2% — — 1.75
Sanfrecce Hiroshima corners (-3.5) 44.7% 42.8% — — 2.33
Kashima Antlers corners (+2.5) 44.0% 42.8% — — 2.33
Kashima Antlers corners (+1.5) 32.9% 34.1% — — 2.93
Kashima Antlers corners (-1.5) 9.0% 10.4% — — 9.59
Kashima Antlers corners (-2.5) 5.0% 10.4% — — 9.60
Kashima Antlers corners (-3.5) 2.6% 4.3% — — 23.49
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 41.7% 38.3% — — 2.61
9-11 corners 30.6% 33.2% — — 3.01
12+ corners 27.7% 31.2% — — 3.21
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 79.9% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 11.5 corners 72.3% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 69.3% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 10.5 corners 63.1% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 58.3% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 52.7% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 9.5 corners 47.3% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 8.5 corners 41.7% 42.1% — — 2.37
Over 10.5 corners 36.9% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 7.5 corners 30.7% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 11.5 corners 27.7% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 20.1% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 12.0% 11.5% 12.8% 0.90× 8.71
1-1 11.7% 11.5% 13.4% 0.85× 8.71
2-0 9.2% 7.4% 7.3% 1.01× 13.51
2-1 9.4% 7.4% 9.8% 0.75× 13.51
0-0 7.2% 7.4% 7.0% 1.05× 13.51
0-1 7.9% 7.4% 10.0% 0.74× 13.51
1-2 6.1% 7.4% 7.2% 1.03× 13.51
2-2 4.8% 1.7% 5.2% 0.33× 58.29
3-0 4.8% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.29
3-1 4.9% 1.7% 3.0% 0.58× 58.29
0-2 3.9% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.30
0-3 1.3% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.31
0-4 0.3% 1.7% 1.1% 1.57× 58.32
1-3 2.1% 1.7% 2.3% 0.73× 58.31
1-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.8% 2.19× 58.32
2-3 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 0.91× 58.31
2-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 58.32
3-2 2.5% 1.7% 2.5% 0.69× 58.30
3-3 0.9% 1.7% 0.8% 2.20× 58.31
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.6% 2.74× 58.32
4-0 1.9% 1.7% 1.3% 1.37× 58.31
4-1 1.9% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 58.31
4-2 1.0% 1.7% 1.6% 1.10× 58.31
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 5.49× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 5.49× 58.32
Any other score 2.6% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.30
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (2nd half DNB) 62.9% 63.0% — — 1.59
Kashima Antlers (2nd half DNB) 37.1% 37.0% — — 2.70
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima leading at HT (DNB) 65.5% 73.4% — — 1.36
Kashima Antlers leading at HT (DNB) 34.5% 26.6% — — 3.76
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Kashima Antlers (12) 75.3% 75.5% 73.9% 1.02× 1.32
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw (1X) 75.1% 75.5% 68.9% 1.10× 1.32
Kashima Antlers or draw (X2) 49.6% 48.5% 57.0% 0.85× 2.06
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw at HT 80.6% 83.9% — — 1.19
Kashima Antlers or draw at HT 63.1% 61.0% — — 1.64
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Kashima Antlers at HT 56.3% 57.4% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw (1UP) 75.1% 83.4% — — 1.20
Kashima Antlers or draw (1UP) 49.6% 53.2% — — 1.88
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw in 2nd half 76.2% 75.6% — — 1.32
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Kashima Antlers in 2nd half 64.1% 63.6% — — 1.57
Kashima Antlers or draw in 2nd half 59.7% 58.2% — — 1.72
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 64.2% 61.4% — — 1.63
Neither half drawn 35.8% 38.6% — — 2.59
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (DNB) 66.9% 67.4% 58.0% 1.16× 1.48
Kashima Antlers (DNB) 33.1% 32.6% 42.0% 0.78× 3.07
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score first 56.3% 62.4% — — 1.60
Kashima Antlers to score first 36.5% 32.7% — — 3.06
No goal scored 7.2% 7.6% — — 13.22
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 50.4% 51.3% 50.5% 1.02× 1.95
Not both teams to score 49.6% 48.7% 49.5% 0.98× 2.05
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 40.3% 41.6% 40.2% 1.03× 2.41
Both score & over 2.5 38.7% 38.5% 37.2% 1.03× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 11.7% 12.4% 13.4% 0.92× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 9.3% 8.3% 9.5% 0.87× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 87.3% 85.6% 86.3% 0.99× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 12.7% 14.4% 13.8% 1.05× 6.95
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 73.0% 73.7% — — 1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half 27.0% 26.3% — — 3.80
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 61.0% 65.8% — — 1.52
Both score 2nd half only 22.6% 21.2% — — 4.71
Both score 1st half only 12.0% 10.7% — — 9.31
Both score in both halves 4.5% 4.9% — — 20.24
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 83.6% 83.4% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 16.4% 16.6% — — 6.04
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 51.4% 52.6% — — 1.90
A half without a goal 48.6% 47.4% — — 2.11
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.6% 47.2% 47.2% 1.00× 2.12
0-1 goals 27.1% 26.6% 29.5% 0.90× 3.76
4-6 goals 24.6% 22.9% 20.9% 1.10× 4.36
7+ goals 1.7% 1.8% 2.7% 0.69× 54.39
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers to score exactly 1 36.8% 35.9% 36.6% 0.98× 2.78
Kashima Antlers to score exactly 0 36.0% 35.9% 31.9% 1.13× 2.78
Kashima Antlers to score exactly 2 18.8% 19.5% 19.7% 0.99× 5.12
Kashima Antlers to score 3+ 8.4% 8.6% 12.2% 0.70× 11.69
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score exactly 1 32.6% 32.6% 36.3% 0.90× 3.07
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score exactly 2 25.7% 26.5% 24.5% 1.08× 3.77
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score 3+ 20.9% 23.3% 14.8% 1.57× 4.29
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score exactly 0 20.8% 23.3% 24.7% 0.94× 4.29
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 43.7% 42.6% — — 2.35
Sanfrecce Hiroshima leading at HT 36.9% 39.0% — — 2.57
Kashima Antlers leading at HT 19.4% 16.1% — — 6.22
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -1: 2 49.6% 46.9% — — 2.13
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -1: 1 26.0% 26.5% — — 3.77
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -1: X 24.4% 23.5% — — 4.25
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers (0:1) 49.6% 46.1% 57.0% 0.81× 2.17
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (0:1) 26.0% 27.0% 18.1% 1.49× 3.70
Draw (0:1) 24.4% 24.2% 25.0% 0.97× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers (0:2) 74.0% 75.7% 81.9% 0.92× 1.32
Draw (0:2) 15.3% 15.2% 12.0% 1.27× 6.57
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (0:2) 10.8% 11.0% 6.3% 1.76× 9.11
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers (0:3) 89.2% 90.6% 93.8% 0.97× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 7.1% 5.8% 4.2% 1.37× 17.25
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (0:3) 3.6% 2.4% 2.2% 1.09× 41.98
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers (0:4) 96.4% 98.1% 97.8% 1.00× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.6% 1.2% 1.4% 0.87× 81.61
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (0:4) 1.0% 1.2% 0.9% 1.30× 81.79
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (1:0) 75.1% 78.5% 68.9% 1.14× 1.27
Draw (1:0) 15.9% 17.1% 19.4% 0.88× 5.85
Kashima Antlers (1:0) 9.0% 6.9% 11.9% 0.58× 14.47
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (2:0) 91.0% 94.0% 88.1% 1.07× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 6.5% 6.4% 6.1% 1.05× 15.67
Kashima Antlers (2:0) 2.5% 2.3% 5.9% 0.38× 43.77
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.2% 48.6% — — 2.06
1st half highest scoring 27.4% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 25.3% 26.2% — — 3.81
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to concede 64.0% 63.7% 68.1% 0.93× 1.57
Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheet 36.0% 36.3% 31.9% 1.14× 2.75
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheet in 1st half 66.5% 70.6% — — 1.42
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to concede in 1st half 33.5% 29.4% — — 3.40
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheet in 2nd half 54.2% 52.6% — — 1.90
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to concede in 2nd half 45.8% 47.4% — — 2.11
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 2.5 corners 91.6% 89.2% — — 1.12
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 3.5 corners 82.5% 81.0% — — 1.24
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 4.5 corners 70.6% 71.9% — — 1.39
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 5.5 corners 57.3% 57.5% — — 1.74
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 6.5 corners 55.9% 57.5% — — 1.74
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 6.5 corners 44.1% 42.5% — — 2.35
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 5.5 corners 42.7% 42.5% — — 2.35
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 4.5 corners 29.4% 28.1% — — 3.56
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 3.5 corners 17.5% 19.0% — — 5.26
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 2.5 corners 8.4% 10.8% — — 9.27
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 3.5 goals 92.5% 92.2% 94.8% 0.97× 1.09
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 0.5 goals 79.2% 77.8% 75.3% 1.03× 1.29
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 2.5 goals 79.1% 77.8% 85.2% 0.91× 1.29
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 1.5 goals 53.4% 53.2% 60.8% 0.88× 1.88
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 1.5 goals 46.6% 46.8% 39.2% 1.19× 2.14
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 2.5 goals 20.9% 22.2% 14.8% 1.50× 4.50
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 0.5 goals 20.8% 22.2% 24.7% 0.90× 4.50
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 3.5 goals 7.5% 7.8% 5.2% 1.51× 12.83
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 1.5 in 1st half 85.3% 90.1% — — 1.11
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 0.5 in 1st half 50.9% 50.6% — — 1.98
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 0.5 in 1st half 49.1% 49.4% — — 2.03
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 1.5 in 1st half 14.7% 9.9% — — 10.07
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more in 2nd half 38.6% 38.1% — — 2.62
Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores equally in both 35.4% 38.1% — — 2.63
Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more in 1st half 26.0% 27.8% — — 3.60
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers (home no bet) 50.2% 51.4% 54.4% 0.95× 1.95
Draw (home no bet) 49.8% 48.6% 45.6% 1.07× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima even goals 52.2% 50.7% 52.7% 0.96× 1.97
Sanfrecce Hiroshima odd goals 47.8% 49.3% 47.3% 1.04× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 33.8% 33.6% — — 2.98
HT 1-0 22.9% 24.4% — — 4.11
HT 0-1 13.9% 11.0% — — 9.08
HT 1-1 9.3% 6.9% — — 14.51
HT 2-0 7.7% 6.9% — — 14.54
Any other HT score 3.9% 2.4% — — 42.15
HT 2-1 3.2% 2.4% — — 42.20
HT 0-2 2.8% 2.4% — — 42.22
HT 1-2 1.9% 2.4% — — 42.28
HT 2-2 0.6% 2.4% — — 42.36
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima at HT / Sanfrecce Hiroshima at FT 30.2% 32.7% — — 3.06
Draw at HT / Sanfrecce Hiroshima at FT 17.8% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 15.4% 16.7% — — 5.97
Kashima Antlers at HT / Kashima Antlers at FT 12.6% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / Kashima Antlers at FT 10.6% 12.7% — — 7.91
Sanfrecce Hiroshima at HT / Draw at FT 5.0% 3.5% — — 28.84
Kashima Antlers at HT / Draw at FT 4.4% 3.5% — — 28.86
Kashima Antlers at HT / Sanfrecce Hiroshima at FT 2.4% 3.5% — — 28.93
Sanfrecce Hiroshima at HT / Kashima Antlers at FT 1.7% 3.5% — — 28.96
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score last 56.2% 56.6% — — 1.77
Kashima Antlers to score last 36.6% 38.6% — — 2.59
No goal scored 7.2% 7.6% — — 13.22
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 92.8% 92.5% — — 1.08
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to lead by 1 at any time 64.1% 61.3% — — 1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 45.4% 44.3% — — 2.26
Kashima Antlers to lead by 1 at any time 41.7% 39.2% — — 2.55
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to lead by 2 at any time 32.0% 29.7% — — 3.36
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 16.4% 14.8% — — 6.75
Kashima Antlers to lead by 2 at any time 13.5% 10.6% — — 9.41
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to lead by 3 at any time 12.8% 10.6% — — 9.42
Kashima Antlers to lead by 3 at any time 3.5% 1.6% — — 61.82
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima most corners 77.0% 74.2% — — 1.35
Kashima Antlers most corners 14.9% 10.4% — — 9.57
Corners level 8.1% 8.3% — — 11.99
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.9% 87.4% 87.5% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 80.6% 83.4% 81.7% 1.02× 1.20
2-6 goals 71.2% 72.3% 68.0% 1.06× 1.38
2-5 goals 68.0% 68.8% 65.0% 1.06× 1.45
1-3 goals 66.5% 68.8% 69.7% 0.99× 1.45
2-4 goals 60.7% 63.3% 59.2% 1.07× 1.58
2-3 goals 46.6% 48.4% 47.2% 1.03× 2.06
3-6 goals 46.3% 48.4% 44.1% 1.10× 2.06
1-2 goals 44.8% 43.6% 46.6% 0.94× 2.29
3-5 goals 43.1% 43.6% 41.1% 1.06× 2.29
3-4 goals 35.8% 39.2% 35.3% 1.11× 2.55
4-6 goals 24.6% 24.5% 20.9% 1.17× 4.09
4-5 goals 21.4% 24.4% 18.0% 1.36× 4.09
5-6 goals 10.5% 14.8% 8.9% 1.66× 6.76
7+ goals 1.7% 2.6% 2.7% 0.96× 39.19
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima never behind 51.1% 62.2% — — 1.61
Kashima Antlers never behind 28.7% 29.9% — — 3.34
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.7% 50.9% 46.7% 1.09× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.3% 49.1% 53.3% 0.92× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.6% 57.8% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 44.4% 42.2% — — 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.3% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.7% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 95.2% 95.4% 94.4% 1.01× 1.05
Over 0.5 goals 92.8% 92.3% 93.0% 0.99× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 87.8% 87.6% 88.6% 0.99× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 73.8% 72.5% 76.6% 0.95× 1.38
Over 1.5 goals 72.9% 72.5% 70.5% 1.03× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 52.0% 52.5% 53.4% 0.98× 1.90
Over 2.5 goals 48.0% 47.5% 46.6% 1.02× 2.11
Under 1.5 goals 27.1% 27.5% 29.5% 0.93× 3.64
Over 3.5 goals 26.2% 27.5% 23.4% 1.17× 3.64
Over 4.5 goals 12.2% 12.4% 11.4% 1.09× 8.07
Under 0.5 goals 7.2% 7.7% 7.0% 1.10× 12.94
Over 5.5 goals 4.8% 4.6% 5.6% 0.82× 21.80
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.3% 97.2% 97.3% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 94.8% 92.4% 94.0% 0.98× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 85.9% 86.7% 87.0% 1.00× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 66.5% 67.5% 69.5% 0.97× 1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 63.9% 61.9% 61.2% 1.01× 1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 36.1% 38.1% 38.8% 0.98× 2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 33.5% 32.5% 30.5% 1.07× 3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 14.1% 13.3% 13.0% 1.02× 7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 5.2% 7.6% 6.0% 1.27× 13.21
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.7% 2.8% 2.7% 1.03× 35.63
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 90.4% 92.7% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 70.5% 71.3% — — 1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half 66.2% 68.5% — — 1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half 33.8% 31.5% — — 3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half 29.5% 28.7% — — 3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half 9.6% 7.3% — — 13.62
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 80.7% 82.9% — — 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 78.0% 79.5% — — 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 55.6% 55.1% — — 1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 44.4% 44.9% — — 2.23
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 22.0% 20.5% — — 4.88
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 19.3% 17.1% — — 5.85
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers not to score in both halves 84.6% 84.4% — — 1.19
Sanfrecce Hiroshima not to score in both halves 70.9% 73.8% — — 1.36
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score in both halves 29.1% 26.2% — — 3.82
Kashima Antlers to score in both halves 15.4% 15.6% — — 6.41
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 50.4% 53.8% 50.5% 1.07× 1.86
Only Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores 28.8% 26.1% 25.0% 1.04× 3.84
Only Kashima Antlers scores 13.6% 11.0% 17.8% 0.62× 9.06
Neither team scores 7.2% 7.1% 7.0% 1.02× 14.01
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.9% 22.6% 24.1% 0.94× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 21.7% 22.6% 23.3% 0.97× 4.43
Exactly 1 goals 19.9% 17.5% 22.7% 0.77× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 14.1% 12.1% 12.2% 0.99× 8.25
Exactly 0 goals 7.2% 7.6% 7.0% 1.08× 13.14
Exactly 5 goals 7.3% 7.6% 5.9% 1.28× 13.14
6 or more goals 4.8% 4.5% 5.6% 0.80× 22.33
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.8% 37.2% — — 2.69
No goals in 1st half 33.8% 35.8% — — 2.79
2 goals in 1st half 19.8% 15.8% — — 6.33
3+ goals in 1st half 9.6% 7.3% — — 13.62
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 44.4% 44.8% — — 2.23
1 goal in 2nd half 33.6% 34.0% — — 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 22.0% 22.9% — — 4.37
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers not to win both halves 95.4% 97.2% — — 1.03
Sanfrecce Hiroshima not to win both halves 85.2% 87.9% — — 1.14
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win both halves 14.8% 12.1% — — 8.24
Kashima Antlers to win both halves 4.6% 2.8% — — 35.33
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win either half 62.4% 65.0% — — 1.54
Kashima Antlers to win neither half 61.4% 64.9% — — 1.54
Kashima Antlers to win either half 38.6% 35.1% — — 2.85
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win neither half 37.6% 35.0% — — 2.85
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers not to win to nil 86.4% 88.1% 82.2% 1.07× 1.14
Sanfrecce Hiroshima not to win to nil 71.2% 75.3% 75.0% 1.00× 1.33
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win to nil 28.8% 24.7% 25.0% 0.99× 4.05
Kashima Antlers to win to nil 13.6% 11.9% 17.8% 0.67× 8.41
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima by 1 24.4% 24.1% 25.0% 0.96× 4.15
Draw 24.7% 24.1% 26.1% 0.92× 4.15
Kashima Antlers by 1 15.9% 17.0% 19.4% 0.88× 5.87
Sanfrecce Hiroshima by 2 15.3% 17.0% 12.0% 1.42× 5.87
Sanfrecce Hiroshima by 3+ 10.8% 11.8% 6.3% 1.88× 8.51
Kashima Antlers by 2 6.5% 7.2% 6.1% 1.18× 13.91
Kashima Antlers by 3+ 2.5% 2.7% 5.9% 0.46× 36.89
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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