Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Shimizu S-Pulse — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 24 October 2026 · JPN-J League · 2627

JPN-J League results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

05:00 UTC

Shimizu S-Pulse

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 21 Oct, 11:05 · 66h before kick-off

Sanfrecce Hiroshima win

67.2%

model 68.6%

Draw

22.3%

model 20.1%

Shimizu S-Pulse win

10.4%

model 11.3%

672210

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (176 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 15.5%
2-0 14.6%
3-0 9.3%
1-1 9.2%
2-1 9.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	46.3%	Under 2.5	53.7%
BTTS yes	38.9%	BTTS no	61.1%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+	85.3%	Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+	57.0%
Shimizu S-Pulse 1+	45.9%	Shimizu S-Pulse 2+	12.7%

Expected goals 1.91 – 0.61. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

82/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 43%

68.8% fair odds 1.45

strong signal · 1169 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 2nd half

Over/Under 2HT

82.0% fair odds 1.22

moderate signal · 1578 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Sanfrecce Hiroshima carry the stronger rating, 1675 Elo against 1423.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Sanfrecce Hiroshima have an estimated 67.2% win probability, against 22.3% for the draw and 10.4% for Shimizu S-Pulse. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.91 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 0.61 for Shimizu S-Pulse.

Why Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Sanfrecce Hiroshima carry the stronger rating, 1675 Elo against 1423. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.3%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Shimizu S-Pulse can win

Nothing in the data singles out Shimizu S-Pulse.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Sanfrecce Hiroshima, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Shimizu S-Pulse, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 53% possession, 18.8 shots a match, 8.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Shimizu S-Pulse: 44% possession, 9.8 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Sanfrecce Hiroshima are the model's most likely outcome at 67.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 15.5%. Confidence 82/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	692011	1.91–0.61	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	632412	1.57–0.52	1-0 20%	35%	32%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win	63.2%	58.2%	43.0%	1.36×	1.72
Draw	24.4%	24.4%	26.1%	0.94×	4.09
Shimizu S-Pulse to win	12.4%	13.5%	31.1%	0.43×	7.42

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima & not both score	47.1%	43.1%	25.0%	1.73×	2.32
Sanfrecce Hiroshima & both teams score	16.2%	18.0%	18.1%	0.99×	5.57
Draw & both teams score	12.2%	13.3%	19.2%	0.69×	7.54
Draw & not both score	12.2%	13.3%	7.0%	1.89×	7.54
Shimizu S-Pulse & not both score	8.8%	8.3%	17.8%	0.47×	12.01
Shimizu S-Pulse & both teams score	3.6%	4.9%	13.4%	0.36×	20.59

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima & under 3.5	50.6%	48.8%	33.1%	1.47×	2.05
Sanfrecce Hiroshima & over 1.5	43.6%	40.3%	30.3%	1.33×	2.48
Sanfrecce Hiroshima & under 2.5	34.8%	30.8%	20.0%	1.54×	3.25
Sanfrecce Hiroshima & over 2.5	28.5%	26.1%	23.1%	1.13×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	22.1%	21.6%	20.3%	1.06×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	22.1%	21.6%	20.3%	1.06×	4.63
Sanfrecce Hiroshima & under 1.5	19.6%	18.0%	12.8%	1.40×	5.56
Sanfrecce Hiroshima & over 3.5	12.6%	12.8%	10.0%	1.28×	7.79
Draw & over 1.5	12.2%	12.8%	19.2%	0.67×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	12.2%	12.8%	7.0%	1.83×	7.79
Shimizu S-Pulse & under 3.5	11.4%	12.8%	23.4%	0.55×	7.79
Shimizu S-Pulse & under 2.5	8.4%	7.9%	13.4%	0.59×	12.63
Shimizu S-Pulse & under 1.5	6.7%	7.9%	10.0%	0.79×	12.63
Shimizu S-Pulse & over 1.5	5.7%	7.9%	21.3%	0.37×	12.63
Shimizu S-Pulse & over 2.5	4.0%	4.8%	17.8%	0.27×	20.81
Draw & over 2.5	2.3%	4.8%	5.9%	0.81×	20.82
Draw & over 3.5	2.3%	4.8%	5.9%	0.81×	20.82
Shimizu S-Pulse & over 3.5	1.0%	4.8%	7.8%	0.61×	20.83

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (1UP)	71.0%	75.3%	—	—	1.33
Shimizu S-Pulse (1UP)	23.8%	22.6%	—	—	4.42

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (2UP)	63.2%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Shimizu S-Pulse (2UP)	12.4%	14.0%	—	—	7.13

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win 2nd half	48.6%	46.0%	—	—	2.18
2nd half drawn	38.8%	36.2%	—	—	2.77
Shimizu S-Pulse to win 2nd half	12.7%	11.3%	—	—	8.81

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse under 1.5 in 2nd half	96.0%	93.3%	—	—	1.07
Shimizu S-Pulse under 0.5 in 2nd half	73.0%	75.3%	—	—	1.33
Shimizu S-Pulse over 0.5 in 2nd half	27.0%	24.7%	—	—	4.05
Shimizu S-Pulse over 1.5 in 2nd half	4.0%	6.7%	—	—	14.97

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 1.5 in 2nd half	77.5%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 0.5 in 2nd half	59.0%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 0.5 in 2nd half	41.0%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 1.5 in 2nd half	22.5%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (+0.5)	87.6%	88.5%	68.9%	1.28×	1.13
Shimizu S-Pulse (+2.5)	85.2%	88.4%	93.8%	0.94×	1.13
Shimizu S-Pulse (+1.5)	65.5%	68.7%	81.9%	0.84×	1.46
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-0.5)	63.2%	62.9%	43.0%	1.46×	1.59
Shimizu S-Pulse (+0.5)	36.8%	37.1%	57.0%	0.65×	2.70
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)	34.5%	31.3%	18.1%	1.73×	3.19
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)	14.8%	11.6%	6.3%	1.85×	8.66
Shimizu S-Pulse (-0.5)	12.4%	11.5%	31.1%	0.37×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse to concede	79.1%	78.8%	75.3%	1.05×	1.27
Shimizu S-Pulse clean sheet	20.9%	21.2%	24.7%	0.86×	4.72

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse clean sheet in 1st half	51.0%	50.5%	—	—	1.98
Shimizu S-Pulse to concede in 1st half	49.0%	49.5%	—	—	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse to concede in 2nd half	59.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Shimizu S-Pulse clean sheet in 2nd half	41.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse under 6.5 corners	93.8%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Shimizu S-Pulse under 5.5 corners	87.6%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Shimizu S-Pulse under 4.5 corners	77.0%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Shimizu S-Pulse under 3.5 corners	61.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Shimizu S-Pulse over 2.5 corners	58.9%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Shimizu S-Pulse under 2.5 corners	41.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Shimizu S-Pulse over 3.5 corners	38.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Shimizu S-Pulse over 4.5 corners	23.0%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Shimizu S-Pulse over 5.5 corners	12.4%	14.8%	—	—	6.77
Shimizu S-Pulse over 6.5 corners	6.2%	10.1%	—	—	9.92

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse under 3.5 goals	99.8%	97.5%	95.9%	1.02×	1.03
Shimizu S-Pulse under 2.5 goals	98.4%	97.5%	87.8%	1.11×	1.03
Shimizu S-Pulse under 1.5 goals	90.2%	92.3%	68.3%	1.35×	1.08
Shimizu S-Pulse under 0.5 goals	59.2%	59.4%	31.9%	1.86×	1.68
Shimizu S-Pulse over 0.5 goals	40.8%	40.6%	68.1%	0.60×	2.47
Shimizu S-Pulse over 1.5 goals	9.8%	7.7%	31.7%	0.24×	13.03
Shimizu S-Pulse over 2.5 goals	1.6%	2.5%	12.2%	0.21×	39.95
Shimizu S-Pulse over 3.5 goals	0.2%	2.5%	4.1%	0.62×	40.02

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse under 1.5 in 1st half	98.1%	96.3%	—	—	1.04
Shimizu S-Pulse under 0.5 in 1st half	81.1%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Shimizu S-Pulse over 0.5 in 1st half	18.9%	17.2%	—	—	5.81
Shimizu S-Pulse over 1.5 in 1st half	1.9%	3.7%	—	—	27.13

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse scores equally in both	63.2%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Shimizu S-Pulse scores more in 2nd half	22.6%	22.0%	—	—	4.55
Shimizu S-Pulse scores more in 1st half	14.3%	12.4%	—	—	8.07

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (away no bet)	72.2%	68.4%	62.2%	1.10×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	27.8%	31.6%	37.8%	0.84×	3.16

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse even goals	67.5%	64.9%	54.2%	1.20×	1.54
Shimizu S-Pulse odd goals	32.5%	35.1%	45.8%	0.77×	2.85

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	92.5%	92.1%	—	—	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	7.5%	7.9%	—	—	12.71

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	51.5%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
Not both halves under 1.5	48.5%	49.7%	—	—	2.01

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	47.2%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score 2+ in a row	42.3%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.0%	16.3%	—	—	6.15
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score 3+ in a row	17.2%	16.3%	—	—	6.15
Shimizu S-Pulse to score 2+ in a row	6.7%	5.6%	—	—	18.01
Shimizu S-Pulse to score 3+ in a row	0.8%	2.5%	—	—	40.21

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima corners (+3.5)	97.1%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Sanfrecce Hiroshima corners (+2.5)	94.4%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Sanfrecce Hiroshima corners (+1.5)	90.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Sanfrecce Hiroshima corners (-1.5)	64.5%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Shimizu S-Pulse corners (+3.5)	58.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Sanfrecce Hiroshima corners (-2.5)	53.1%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Shimizu S-Pulse corners (+2.5)	46.9%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Sanfrecce Hiroshima corners (-3.5)	41.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Shimizu S-Pulse corners (+1.5)	35.5%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Shimizu S-Pulse corners (-1.5)	9.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Shimizu S-Pulse corners (-2.5)	5.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Shimizu S-Pulse corners (-3.5)	2.9%	4.3%	—	—	23.46

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	44.6%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	30.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
12+ corners	25.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	82.2%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	75.0%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	66.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	66.1%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 9.5 corners	55.8%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	55.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	44.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	44.2%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	33.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	33.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	25.0%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	17.8%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	19.6%	13.9%	12.8%	1.08×	7.22
2-0	15.2%	13.8%	7.3%	1.88×	7.24
0-0	12.2%	11.5%	7.0%	1.63×	8.72
1-1	9.9%	7.4%	13.4%	0.55×	13.50
0-1	6.7%	7.4%	10.0%	0.74×	13.51
2-1	7.9%	7.4%	9.8%	0.75×	13.50
3-0	7.9%	7.4%	3.6%	2.06×	13.50
0-2	1.7%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.31
0-3	0.3%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.32
0-4	0.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.57×	58.32
1-2	2.7%	1.7%	7.2%	0.24×	58.30
1-3	0.5%	1.7%	2.3%	0.73×	58.32
1-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.32
2-2	2.1%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.31
2-3	0.4%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	58.32
2-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.5%	3.66×	58.32
3-1	4.1%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.30
3-2	1.1%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.31
3-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.32
3-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.6%	2.74×	58.32
4-0	3.1%	1.7%	1.3%	1.37×	58.30
4-1	1.6%	1.7%	0.5%	3.66×	58.31
4-2	0.4%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.32
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.49×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.3%	5.49×	58.32
Any other score	2.2%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (2nd half DNB)	79.3%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Shimizu S-Pulse (2nd half DNB)	20.7%	20.1%	—	—	4.97

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima leading at HT (DNB)	80.3%	85.1%	—	—	1.18
Shimizu S-Pulse leading at HT (DNB)	19.7%	14.9%	—	—	6.69

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw (1X)	87.6%	86.5%	68.9%	1.26×	1.16
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Shimizu S-Pulse (12)	75.6%	75.6%	73.9%	1.02×	1.32
Shimizu S-Pulse or draw (X2)	36.8%	41.8%	57.0%	0.73×	2.39

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw at HT	89.6%	88.3%	—	—	1.13
Shimizu S-Pulse or draw at HT	57.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Shimizu S-Pulse at HT	52.7%	47.8%	—	—	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw (1UP)	87.6%	92.0%	—	—	1.09
Shimizu S-Pulse or draw (1UP)	36.8%	41.0%	—	—	2.44

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw in 2nd half	87.3%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Shimizu S-Pulse in 2nd half	61.2%	63.8%	—	—	1.57
Shimizu S-Pulse or draw in 2nd half	51.4%	54.0%	—	—	1.85

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	68.0%	68.3%	—	—	1.46
Neither half drawn	32.0%	31.7%	—	—	3.16

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (DNB)	83.6%	80.3%	58.0%	1.38×	1.25
Shimizu S-Pulse (DNB)	16.4%	19.7%	42.0%	0.47×	5.09

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score first	65.8%	69.2%	—	—	1.44
Shimizu S-Pulse to score first	22.0%	22.6%	—	—	4.42
No goal scored	12.2%	9.8%	—	—	10.16

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	68.0%	58.5%	49.5%	1.18×	1.71
Both teams to score	32.0%	41.5%	50.5%	0.82×	2.41

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	55.3%	47.5%	40.2%	1.18×	2.10
Both score & over 2.5	22.1%	27.8%	37.2%	0.75×	3.60
Not both score & over 2.5	12.6%	12.4%	9.5%	1.30×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	9.9%	8.3%	13.4%	0.62×	12.05

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	95.5%	91.6%	86.3%	1.06×	1.09
Both teams to score 2+	4.5%	8.4%	13.8%	0.61×	11.89

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	84.2%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	15.8%	25.5%	—	—	3.92

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	76.4%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
Both score 2nd half only	14.4%	10.7%	—	—	9.33
Both score 1st half only	7.7%	6.8%	—	—	14.67
Both score in both halves	1.5%	4.8%	—	—	20.75

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	90.8%	91.2%	—	—	1.10
Both teams to score by HT	9.2%	8.8%	—	—	11.39

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	59.0%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
A goal in each half	41.0%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.6%	47.2%	47.2%	1.00×	2.12
0-1 goals	38.5%	35.1%	29.5%	1.19×	2.85
4-6 goals	15.4%	20.2%	20.9%	0.97×	4.95
7+ goals	0.6%	1.8%	2.7%	0.69×	54.45

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse to score exactly 0	59.2%	52.0%	31.9%	1.63×	1.92
Shimizu S-Pulse to score exactly 1	31.0%	33.8%	36.6%	0.93×	2.96
Shimizu S-Pulse to score exactly 2	8.1%	8.6%	19.7%	0.43×	11.69
Shimizu S-Pulse to score 3+	1.6%	4.6%	12.2%	0.37×	21.95

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score exactly 1	32.7%	32.6%	36.3%	0.90×	3.07
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score exactly 2	25.6%	26.5%	24.5%	1.08×	3.77
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score exactly 0	20.9%	23.3%	24.7%	0.94×	4.29
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score 3+	20.8%	23.3%	14.8%	1.57×	4.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	47.3%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Sanfrecce Hiroshima leading at HT	42.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Shimizu S-Pulse leading at HT	10.4%	11.7%	—	—	8.55

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -1: 2	36.8%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -1: 1	34.5%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -1: X	28.7%	26.6%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse (0:1)	36.8%	37.3%	57.0%	0.65×	2.68
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (0:1)	34.5%	30.2%	18.1%	1.66×	3.32
Draw (0:1)	28.7%	27.0%	25.0%	1.08×	3.70

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse (0:2)	65.5%	72.1%	81.9%	0.88×	1.39
Draw (0:2)	19.8%	15.3%	12.0%	1.27×	6.53
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (0:2)	14.8%	11.0%	6.3%	1.76×	9.09

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse (0:3)	85.2%	90.6%	93.8%	0.97×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	9.7%	5.8%	4.2%	1.38×	17.17
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (0:3)	5.1%	5.8%	2.2%	2.65×	17.25

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse (0:4)	94.9%	94.6%	97.8%	0.97×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	3.6%	1.2%	1.4%	0.87×	81.70
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (0:4)	1.5%	1.2%	0.9%	1.30×	81.94

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (1:0)	87.6%	86.1%	68.9%	1.25×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	9.8%	6.9%	19.4%	0.36×	14.46
Shimizu S-Pulse (1:0)	2.6%	3.3%	11.9%	0.27×	30.69

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (2:0)	97.4%	96.8%	88.1%	1.10×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	2.2%	2.3%	6.1%	0.38×	43.69
Shimizu S-Pulse (2:0)	0.4%	2.3%	5.9%	0.38×	43.81

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	43.7%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Halves equal	29.2%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	27.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheet	59.2%	60.7%	31.9%	1.90×	1.65
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to concede	40.8%	39.3%	68.1%	0.58×	2.55

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheet in 1st half	81.1%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to concede in 1st half	18.9%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheet in 2nd half	73.0%	72.0%	—	—	1.39
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to concede in 2nd half	27.0%	28.0%	—	—	3.57

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 2.5 corners	90.3%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 3.5 corners	80.3%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 4.5 corners	67.6%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 6.5 corners	59.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 5.5 corners	53.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 5.5 corners	46.3%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 6.5 corners	40.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 4.5 corners	32.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 3.5 corners	19.7%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 2.5 corners	9.7%	10.8%	—	—	9.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 3.5 goals	92.6%	92.2%	94.8%	0.97×	1.08
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 2.5 goals	79.2%	77.7%	85.2%	0.91×	1.29
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 0.5 goals	79.1%	77.7%	75.3%	1.03×	1.29
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 1.5 goals	53.6%	53.2%	60.8%	0.88×	1.88
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 1.5 goals	46.4%	46.8%	39.2%	1.19×	2.14
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 0.5 goals	20.9%	22.3%	24.7%	0.90×	4.49
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 2.5 goals	20.8%	22.3%	14.8%	1.50×	4.49
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 3.5 goals	7.4%	7.8%	5.2%	1.51×	12.88

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 1.5 in 1st half	85.4%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 0.5 in 1st half	51.0%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 0.5 in 1st half	49.0%	49.7%	—	—	2.01
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 1.5 in 1st half	14.6%	9.9%	—	—	10.10

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more in 2nd half	38.6%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores equally in both	35.5%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more in 1st half	26.0%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	66.3%	64.1%	45.6%	1.41×	1.56
Shimizu S-Pulse (home no bet)	33.7%	35.9%	54.4%	0.66×	2.79

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima even goals	52.2%	50.7%	52.7%	0.96×	1.97
Sanfrecce Hiroshima odd goals	47.8%	49.3%	47.3%	1.04×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	41.3%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
HT 1-0	27.9%	28.0%	—	—	3.57
HT 2-0	9.4%	6.9%	—	—	14.46
HT 0-1	8.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.47
HT 1-1	5.8%	6.9%	—	—	14.51
Any other HT score	3.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.07
HT 2-1	2.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.15
HT 0-2	0.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.22
HT 1-2	0.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.24
HT 2-2	0.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.27

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima at HT / Sanfrecce Hiroshima at FT	38.4%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
Draw at HT / Sanfrecce Hiroshima at FT	23.1%	21.8%	—	—	4.58
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	18.1%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / Shimizu S-Pulse at FT	6.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.66
Shimizu S-Pulse at HT / Shimizu S-Pulse at FT	5.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.67
Sanfrecce Hiroshima at HT / Draw at FT	3.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.64
Shimizu S-Pulse at HT / Draw at FT	2.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.66
Shimizu S-Pulse at HT / Sanfrecce Hiroshima at FT	1.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.70
Sanfrecce Hiroshima at HT / Shimizu S-Pulse at FT	0.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.74

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score last	65.8%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Shimizu S-Pulse to score last	22.1%	25.5%	—	—	3.93
No goal scored	12.2%	9.2%	—	—	10.82

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	87.8%	91.3%	—	—	1.10
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to lead by 1 at any time	71.0%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	42.5%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to lead by 2 at any time	38.2%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Shimizu S-Pulse to lead by 1 at any time	23.8%	19.7%	—	—	5.08
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.7%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to lead by 3 at any time	16.1%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Shimizu S-Pulse to lead by 2 at any time	4.3%	1.7%	—	—	60.58
Shimizu S-Pulse to lead by 3 at any time	0.6%	1.6%	—	—	64.11

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima most corners	75.0%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Shimizu S-Pulse most corners	16.4%	19.2%	—	—	5.21
Corners level	8.6%	8.4%	—	—	11.97

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.9%	87.4%	87.5%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.7%	83.4%	81.7%	1.02×	1.20
1-3 goals	71.9%	72.4%	69.7%	1.04×	1.38
2-6 goals	61.0%	63.3%	68.0%	0.93×	1.58
2-5 goals	59.5%	59.1%	65.0%	0.91×	1.69
2-4 goals	55.4%	59.1%	59.2%	1.00×	1.69
1-2 goals	53.1%	53.2%	46.6%	1.14×	1.88
2-3 goals	45.6%	48.5%	47.2%	1.03×	2.06
3-6 goals	34.2%	35.2%	44.1%	0.80×	2.84
3-5 goals	32.7%	35.2%	41.1%	0.86×	2.84
3-4 goals	28.6%	30.2%	35.3%	0.86×	3.31
4-6 goals	15.4%	18.8%	20.9%	0.90×	5.31
4-5 goals	13.9%	14.8%	18.0%	0.82×	6.75
5-6 goals	5.5%	8.9%	8.9%	1.00×	11.28
7+ goals	0.6%	2.6%	2.7%	0.96×	39.20

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima never behind	64.0%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Shimizu S-Pulse never behind	16.9%	18.3%	—	—	5.46

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.7%	50.9%	53.3%	0.96×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.3%	49.1%	46.7%	1.05×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	58.5%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	41.5%	42.3%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.3%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.7%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	98.0%	95.4%	94.4%	1.01×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	93.9%	92.3%	88.6%	1.04×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	87.8%	87.6%	93.0%	0.94×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	84.1%	82.3%	76.6%	1.08×	1.22
Under 2.5 goals	65.3%	66.3%	53.4%	1.24×	1.51
Over 1.5 goals	61.5%	61.7%	70.5%	0.88×	1.62
Under 1.5 goals	38.5%	38.3%	29.5%	1.30×	2.61
Over 2.5 goals	34.7%	33.7%	46.6%	0.72×	2.97
Over 3.5 goals	15.9%	17.7%	23.4%	0.76×	5.65
Under 0.5 goals	12.2%	12.4%	7.0%	1.76×	8.06
Over 4.5 goals	6.1%	7.7%	11.4%	0.68×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	2.0%	4.6%	5.6%	0.81×	21.89

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.4%	97.2%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	97.9%	97.2%	94.0%	1.03×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	93.2%	92.4%	87.0%	1.06×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	80.4%	81.1%	69.5%	1.17×	1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	52.6%	51.9%	38.8%	1.34×	1.93
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	47.4%	48.1%	61.2%	0.79×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	19.6%	18.9%	30.5%	0.62×	5.28
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	6.8%	7.6%	13.0%	0.59×	13.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	2.1%	2.8%	6.0%	0.47×	35.60
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.6%	2.8%	2.7%	1.03×	35.64

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	94.0%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	77.9%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half	58.7%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	41.3%	36.3%	—	—	2.76
Over 1.5 in 1st half	22.1%	21.8%	—	—	4.58
Over 2.5 in 1st half	6.0%	7.3%	—	—	13.76

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	87.8%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	70.2%	77.3%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	66.1%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	33.9%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	29.8%	22.7%	—	—	4.40
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	12.2%	14.5%	—	—	6.91

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse not to score in both halves	94.9%	91.0%	—	—	1.10
Sanfrecce Hiroshima not to score in both halves	71.1%	73.8%	—	—	1.35
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score in both halves	28.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Shimizu S-Pulse to score in both halves	5.1%	9.0%	—	—	11.10

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Only Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores	47.1%	50.7%	25.0%	2.03×	1.97
Both teams score	32.0%	33.3%	50.5%	0.66×	3.00
Neither team scores	12.2%	11.0%	7.0%	1.57×	9.06
Only Shimizu S-Pulse scores	8.8%	7.1%	17.8%	0.40×	14.03

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.8%	24.9%	24.1%	1.03×	4.02
Exactly 1 goals	26.3%	24.9%	22.7%	1.10×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	18.8%	17.5%	23.3%	0.75×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	12.2%	12.1%	7.0%	1.72×	8.25
Exactly 4 goals	9.8%	7.6%	12.2%	0.63×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	4.1%	4.5%	5.9%	0.75×	22.38
6 or more goals	2.0%	4.5%	5.6%	0.79×	22.41

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	41.3%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
1 goal in 1st half	36.6%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
2 goals in 1st half	16.1%	15.6%	—	—	6.41
3+ goals in 1st half	6.0%	7.3%	—	—	13.76

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	36.3%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
2+ goals in 2nd half	33.9%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	29.8%	29.4%	—	—	3.41

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse not to win both halves	98.7%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Sanfrecce Hiroshima not to win both halves	79.5%	75.7%	—	—	1.32
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win both halves	20.5%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
Shimizu S-Pulse to win both halves	1.3%	2.8%	—	—	36.24

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse to win neither half	78.3%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win either half	70.4%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win neither half	29.6%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Shimizu S-Pulse to win either half	21.7%	20.1%	—	—	4.98

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse not to win to nil	91.2%	92.1%	82.2%	1.12×	1.09
Sanfrecce Hiroshima not to win to nil	52.9%	53.9%	75.0%	0.72×	1.86
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win to nil	47.1%	46.2%	25.0%	1.85×	2.17
Shimizu S-Pulse to win to nil	8.8%	7.9%	17.8%	0.44×	12.63

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima by 1	28.7%	27.9%	25.0%	1.12×	3.59
Draw	24.4%	24.1%	26.1%	0.92×	4.15
Sanfrecce Hiroshima by 2	19.8%	17.1%	12.0%	1.42×	5.86
Sanfrecce Hiroshima by 3+	14.8%	11.8%	6.3%	1.88×	8.50
Shimizu S-Pulse by 1	9.8%	7.2%	19.4%	0.37×	13.90
Shimizu S-Pulse by 2	2.2%	2.7%	6.1%	0.45×	36.84
Shimizu S-Pulse by 3+	0.4%	2.7%	5.9%	0.46×	36.89