Santa Clara v FC Porto — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 December 2026 · POR-Primeira Liga · 2627

Primeira Liga results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Santa Clara

20:00 UTC

FC Porto

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 993h before kick-off

Santa Clara win

19.1%

model 19.5%

Draw

27.7%

model 27.0%

FC Porto win

53.2%

model 53.4%

192853

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

0-1 17.5%
0-0 12.1%
0-2 11.8%
1-1 11.7%
1-0 9.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	34.6%	Under 2.5	65.4%
BTTS yes	37.5%	BTTS no	62.5%
Santa Clara 1+	50.6%	Santa Clara 2+	15.8%
FC Porto 1+	74.8%	FC Porto 2+	40.1%

Expected goals 0.71 – 1.38. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

77/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

FC Porto (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 31%

52.2% fair odds 1.92

strong signal · 1133 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

FC Porto or draw (1UP)

Double chance 1UP

83.7% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 424 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

FC Porto carry the stronger rating, 1776 Elo against 1508.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

FC Porto have an estimated 53.2% win probability, against 27.7% for the draw and 19.1% for Santa Clara. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.71 for Santa Clara and 1.38 for FC Porto.

Why Santa Clara

Nothing in the data singles out Santa Clara.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.7%. A combined 2.08 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why FC Porto can win

FC Porto carry the stronger rating, 1776 Elo against 1508. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Santa Clara, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for FC Porto, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Santa Clara: 44% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 9.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. FC Porto: 47% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

FC Porto are the model's most likely outcome at 53.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 17.5%. Confidence 77/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	202753	0.71–1.38	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	152858	0.52–1.34	0-1 21%	29%	30%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto to win	57.6%	53.9%	31.4%	1.72×	1.85
Draw	27.7%	27.9%	26.7%	1.05×	3.58
Santa Clara to win	14.7%	13.5%	42.1%	0.32×	7.41

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto & not both score	44.3%	40.2%	19.9%	2.02×	2.49
Draw & not both score	15.2%	18.0%	6.5%	2.78×	5.57
FC Porto & both teams score	13.3%	13.3%	11.7%	1.13×	7.54
Draw & both teams score	12.5%	13.3%	20.3%	0.65×	7.54
Santa Clara & not both score	10.9%	13.3%	26.0%	0.51×	7.54
Santa Clara & both teams score	3.8%	4.9%	16.2%	0.30×	20.50

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto & under 3.5	48.7%	45.1%	25.4%	1.77×	2.22
FC Porto & over 1.5	36.4%	34.9%	22.5%	1.55×	2.87
FC Porto & under 2.5	35.2%	34.9%	14.2%	2.46×	2.87
Draw & under 2.5	25.7%	26.0%	17.3%	1.51×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	25.7%	26.0%	17.3%	1.51×	3.84
FC Porto & over 2.5	22.4%	21.6%	17.4%	1.24×	4.63
FC Porto & under 1.5	21.2%	21.6%	9.1%	2.38×	4.63
Draw & under 1.5	15.2%	18.0%	6.5%	2.78×	5.56
Santa Clara & under 3.5	13.7%	12.8%	29.1%	0.44×	7.79
Draw & over 1.5	12.5%	12.8%	20.3%	0.63×	7.79
Santa Clara & under 2.5	10.5%	12.8%	17.6%	0.73×	7.79
FC Porto & over 3.5	8.8%	7.9%	6.2%	1.29×	12.63
Santa Clara & under 1.5	8.4%	7.9%	10.8%	0.73×	12.63
Santa Clara & over 1.5	6.3%	7.9%	31.4%	0.25×	12.63
Santa Clara & over 2.5	4.2%	4.8%	24.7%	0.19×	20.82
Draw & over 2.5	2.0%	4.8%	9.6%	0.50×	20.83
Draw & over 3.5	2.0%	4.8%	9.6%	0.50×	20.83
Santa Clara & over 3.5	1.0%	4.8%	13.1%	0.37×	20.84

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (1UP)	65.5%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Santa Clara (1UP)	25.5%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (2UP)	57.6%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Santa Clara (2UP)	14.7%	14.2%	—	—	7.07

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto to win 2nd half	45.7%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
2nd half drawn	41.4%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
Santa Clara to win 2nd half	12.9%	11.2%	—	—	8.95

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto under 1.5 in 2nd half	80.7%	84.0%	—	—	1.19
FC Porto over 0.5 in 2nd half	55.3%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
FC Porto under 0.5 in 2nd half	44.7%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
FC Porto over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.3%	16.0%	—	—	6.25

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara under 1.5 in 2nd half	96.4%	96.4%	—	—	1.04
Santa Clara under 0.5 in 2nd half	74.3%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
Santa Clara over 0.5 in 2nd half	25.7%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
Santa Clara over 1.5 in 2nd half	3.6%	3.6%	—	—	27.67

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (+2.5)	99.5%	96.3%	89.7%	1.07×	1.04
FC Porto (+1.5)	96.9%	96.3%	77.8%	1.24×	1.04
FC Porto (+0.5)	85.3%	88.5%	57.9%	1.53×	1.13
FC Porto (-0.5)	57.6%	57.1%	31.4%	1.82×	1.75
Santa Clara (+0.5)	42.4%	42.9%	68.6%	0.63×	2.33
Santa Clara (-0.5)	14.7%	11.6%	42.1%	0.27×	8.66
Santa Clara (-1.5)	3.1%	3.7%	22.2%	0.17×	27.14
Santa Clara (-2.5)	0.5%	3.7%	10.3%	0.35×	27.31

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto clean sheet	59.5%	62.5%	26.2%	2.39×	1.60
FC Porto to concede	40.5%	37.5%	73.8%	0.51×	2.67

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto clean sheet in 1st half	80.0%	80.3%	—	—	1.25
FC Porto to concede in 1st half	20.0%	19.7%	—	—	5.07

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto clean sheet in 2nd half	74.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
FC Porto to concede in 2nd half	25.7%	28.4%	—	—	3.52

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto over 2.5 corners	82.5%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
FC Porto under 6.5 corners	72.4%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
FC Porto over 3.5 corners	68.8%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
FC Porto under 5.5 corners	60.4%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
FC Porto over 4.5 corners	53.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
FC Porto under 4.5 corners	46.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
FC Porto over 5.5 corners	39.6%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
FC Porto under 3.5 corners	31.2%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
FC Porto over 6.5 corners	27.6%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
FC Porto under 2.5 corners	17.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto under 3.5 goals	95.3%	97.5%	96.0%	1.02×	1.03
FC Porto under 2.5 goals	84.7%	81.5%	88.8%	0.92×	1.23
FC Porto over 0.5 goals	73.9%	71.9%	67.6%	1.06×	1.39
FC Porto under 1.5 goals	61.2%	63.2%	65.3%	0.97×	1.58
FC Porto over 1.5 goals	38.8%	36.8%	34.7%	1.06×	2.72
FC Porto under 0.5 goals	26.1%	28.1%	32.4%	0.87×	3.55
FC Porto over 2.5 goals	15.3%	18.5%	11.2%	1.64×	5.41
FC Porto over 3.5 goals	4.7%	2.5%	4.0%	0.63×	39.73

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto under 1.5 in 1st half	89.8%	89.4%	—	—	1.12
FC Porto under 0.5 in 1st half	58.4%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
FC Porto over 0.5 in 1st half	41.6%	37.6%	—	—	2.66
FC Porto over 1.5 in 1st half	10.2%	10.6%	—	—	9.40

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto scores more in 2nd half	38.8%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
FC Porto scores equally in both	38.7%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
FC Porto scores more in 1st half	22.5%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	65.3%	66.4%	38.8%	1.71×	1.51
Santa Clara (away no bet)	34.7%	33.6%	61.2%	0.55×	2.97

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto even goals	53.4%	52.6%	58.7%	0.90×	1.90
FC Porto odd goals	46.6%	47.4%	41.3%	1.15×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	94.7%	92.1%	—	—	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	5.3%	7.9%	—	—	12.73

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	57.6%	60.4%	—	—	1.66
Not both halves under 1.5	42.4%	39.6%	—	—	2.52

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	40.6%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
FC Porto to score 2+ in a row	35.1%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Either team to score 3+ in a row	13.4%	12.2%	—	—	8.21
FC Porto to score 3+ in a row	12.6%	12.2%	—	—	8.23
Santa Clara to score 2+ in a row	6.9%	5.5%	—	—	18.21
Santa Clara to score 3+ in a row	0.9%	2.5%	—	—	40.42

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto corners (+3.5)	93.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
FC Porto corners (+2.5)	88.3%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
FC Porto corners (+1.5)	81.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Santa Clara corners (+3.5)	72.2%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Santa Clara corners (+2.5)	62.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Santa Clara corners (+1.5)	50.5%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
FC Porto corners (-1.5)	49.5%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
FC Porto corners (-2.5)	38.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
FC Porto corners (-3.5)	27.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Santa Clara corners (-1.5)	18.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Santa Clara corners (-2.5)	11.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Santa Clara corners (-3.5)	6.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	52.1%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	27.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	19.9%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	86.1%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	80.1%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	72.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	62.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	59.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	52.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	47.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	40.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	37.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	27.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	19.9%	19.3%	—	—	5.17
Over 12.5 corners	13.9%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1	21.2%	20.1%	9.1%	2.21×	4.98
0-0	15.2%	13.8%	6.5%	2.13×	7.24
0-2	14.0%	11.5%	5.2%	2.19×	8.71
1-1	10.5%	11.5%	10.9%	1.05×	8.72
1-0	8.4%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.51
1-2	7.3%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.51
0-3	6.3%	7.4%	3.9%	1.92×	13.51
0-4	2.1%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.31
1-3	3.3%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.30
1-4	1.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.31
2-0	2.1%	1.7%	6.9%	0.25×	58.31
2-1	2.8%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	58.30
2-2	1.9%	1.7%	8.3%	0.21×	58.31
2-3	0.8%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.31
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.6%	2.78×	58.32
3-0	0.4%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.32
3-1	0.5%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.32
3-2	0.3%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.32
3-3	0.1%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.32
3-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	11.13×	58.32
4-0	0.0%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.32
4-1	0.1%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.32
4-2	0.0%	1.7%	0.6%	2.78×	58.32
4-3	0.0%	1.7%	0.3%	5.56×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.3%	5.56×	58.32
Any other score	1.2%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (2nd half DNB)	77.9%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Santa Clara (2nd half DNB)	22.1%	20.3%	—	—	4.93

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto leading at HT (DNB)	73.8%	74.7%	—	—	1.34
Santa Clara leading at HT (DNB)	26.2%	25.3%	—	—	3.95

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto or draw (X2)	85.3%	86.5%	57.9%	1.49×	1.16
Santa Clara or FC Porto (12)	72.3%	72.1%	73.3%	0.98×	1.39
Santa Clara or draw (1X)	42.4%	46.1%	68.6%	0.67×	2.17

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto or draw at HT	87.5%	88.4%	—	—	1.13
Santa Clara or draw at HT	64.9%	61.1%	—	—	1.64
Santa Clara or FC Porto at HT	47.6%	51.2%	—	—	1.96

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto or draw (1UP)	85.3%	91.8%	—	—	1.09
Santa Clara or draw (1UP)	42.4%	52.8%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto or draw in 2nd half	87.1%	88.8%	—	—	1.13
Santa Clara or FC Porto in 2nd half	58.6%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Santa Clara or draw in 2nd half	54.3%	55.0%	—	—	1.82

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	72.5%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Neither half drawn	27.5%	29.2%	—	—	3.43

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (DNB)	79.7%	74.8%	42.8%	1.75×	1.34
Santa Clara (DNB)	20.3%	25.2%	57.2%	0.44×	3.97

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto to score first	61.2%	63.8%	—	—	1.57
Santa Clara to score first	23.7%	23.0%	—	—	4.35
No goal scored	15.2%	16.5%	—	—	6.05

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	70.4%	62.4%	52.1%	1.20×	1.60
Both teams to score	29.6%	37.6%	47.9%	0.79×	2.66

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	60.9%	50.4%	37.9%	1.33×	1.99
Both score & over 2.5	19.1%	21.5%	37.1%	0.58×	4.64
Both score & under 2.5	10.5%	12.4%	10.9%	1.13×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	9.5%	8.3%	14.3%	0.58×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	96.3%	91.6%	86.0%	1.07×	1.09
Both teams to score 2+	3.7%	8.4%	14.0%	0.60×	11.92

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	85.9%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Both teams to score in 2nd half	14.1%	13.7%	—	—	7.28

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	78.8%	76.9%	—	—	1.30
Both score 2nd half only	12.9%	10.8%	—	—	9.30
Both score 1st half only	7.1%	6.8%	—	—	14.74
Both score in both halves	1.2%	4.8%	—	—	20.95

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	91.7%	91.9%	—	—	1.09
Both teams to score by HT	8.3%	8.1%	—	—	12.40

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	64.6%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
A goal in each half	35.4%	40.5%	—	—	2.47

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1 goals	44.8%	42.2%	26.0%	1.62×	2.37
2-3 goals	43.3%	42.2%	45.6%	0.93×	2.37
4-6 goals	11.6%	16.9%	27.7%	0.61×	5.91
7+ goals	0.3%	1.8%	0.9%	1.98×	54.53

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto to score exactly 1	35.1%	35.9%	33.1%	1.08×	2.79
FC Porto to score exactly 0	26.1%	27.4%	32.4%	0.85×	3.65
FC Porto to score exactly 2	23.5%	22.3%	23.6%	0.95×	4.49
FC Porto to score 3+	15.3%	19.5%	11.2%	1.74×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara to score exactly 0	59.5%	45.3%	26.2%	1.73×	2.21
Santa Clara to score exactly 1	30.9%	32.6%	31.4%	1.04×	3.07
Santa Clara to score exactly 2	8.0%	10.4%	23.6%	0.44×	9.66
Santa Clara to score 3+	1.6%	6.1%	19.1%	0.32×	16.43

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	52.4%	48.8%	—	—	2.05
FC Porto leading at HT	35.1%	38.9%	—	—	2.57
Santa Clara leading at HT	12.5%	11.6%	—	—	8.61

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto -1: 1	42.4%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
FC Porto -1: X	29.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
FC Porto -1: 2	28.2%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (0:1)	85.3%	89.1%	57.9%	1.54×	1.12
Draw (0:1)	11.6%	13.7%	20.0%	0.68×	7.31
Santa Clara (0:1)	3.1%	5.6%	22.2%	0.25×	17.76

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (0:2)	96.9%	94.2%	77.8%	1.21×	1.06
Draw (0:2)	2.6%	3.7%	12.0%	0.31×	26.75
Santa Clara (0:2)	0.5%	3.7%	10.3%	0.36×	26.88

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (0:3)	99.5%	96.7%	89.7%	1.08×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	0.4%	2.4%	6.0%	0.40×	42.12
Santa Clara (0:3)	0.1%	2.4%	4.5%	0.53×	42.14

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (0:4)	99.9%	98.1%	95.5%	1.03×	1.02
Santa Clara (0:4)	0.0%	1.2%	1.4%	0.88×	81.90
Draw (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	3.2%	0.38×	81.90

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara (1:0)	42.4%	43.4%	68.6%	0.63×	2.30
Draw (1:0)	29.4%	25.1%	17.7%	1.42×	3.98
FC Porto (1:0)	28.2%	25.1%	13.9%	1.81×	3.98

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara (2:0)	71.8%	76.4%	86.1%	0.89×	1.31
Draw (2:0)	17.6%	15.9%	7.1%	2.24×	6.30
FC Porto (2:0)	10.7%	10.3%	6.9%	1.48×	9.73

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	43.7%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
Halves equal	31.0%	31.0%	—	—	3.23
1st half highest scoring	25.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara to concede	73.9%	73.1%	67.6%	1.08×	1.37
Santa Clara clean sheet	26.1%	26.9%	32.4%	0.83×	3.71

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara clean sheet in 1st half	58.4%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Santa Clara to concede in 1st half	41.6%	37.6%	—	—	2.66

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara to concede in 2nd half	55.3%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Santa Clara clean sheet in 2nd half	44.7%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara under 6.5 corners	90.2%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Santa Clara under 5.5 corners	82.5%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Santa Clara under 4.5 corners	70.8%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Santa Clara over 2.5 corners	64.2%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Santa Clara under 3.5 corners	54.8%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Santa Clara over 3.5 corners	45.2%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Santa Clara under 2.5 corners	35.8%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Santa Clara over 4.5 corners	29.2%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Santa Clara over 5.5 corners	17.5%	19.0%	—	—	5.26
Santa Clara over 6.5 corners	9.8%	10.8%	—	—	9.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara under 3.5 goals	99.8%	96.4%	93.5%	1.03×	1.04
Santa Clara under 2.5 goals	98.4%	96.4%	80.9%	1.19×	1.04
Santa Clara under 1.5 goals	90.4%	92.2%	57.5%	1.60×	1.09
Santa Clara under 0.5 goals	59.5%	58.7%	26.2%	2.24×	1.71
Santa Clara over 0.5 goals	40.5%	41.3%	73.8%	0.56×	2.42
Santa Clara over 1.5 goals	9.6%	7.8%	42.5%	0.18×	12.81
Santa Clara over 2.5 goals	1.6%	3.6%	19.1%	0.19×	27.62
Santa Clara over 3.5 goals	0.2%	3.6%	6.5%	0.56×	27.68

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara under 1.5 in 1st half	97.8%	97.8%	—	—	1.02
Santa Clara under 0.5 in 1st half	80.0%	76.7%	—	—	1.30
Santa Clara over 0.5 in 1st half	20.0%	23.3%	—	—	4.30
Santa Clara over 1.5 in 1st half	2.2%	2.2%	—	—	44.56

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara scores equally in both	63.5%	63.5%	—	—	1.58
Santa Clara scores more in 2nd half	21.2%	21.0%	—	—	4.76
Santa Clara scores more in 1st half	15.4%	14.3%	—	—	7.00

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (home no bet)	67.5%	64.2%	54.1%	1.19×	1.56
Draw (home no bet)	32.5%	35.8%	45.9%	0.78×	2.79

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara even goals	67.7%	65.8%	54.7%	1.20×	1.52
Santa Clara odd goals	32.3%	34.2%	45.3%	0.75×	2.92

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	46.7%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
HT 0-1	25.2%	28.3%	—	—	3.53
HT 1-0	10.5%	11.0%	—	—	9.11
HT 0-2	6.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.55
HT 1-1	5.6%	6.9%	—	—	14.57
Any other HT score	1.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.28
HT 1-2	1.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.30
HT 2-0	1.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.33
HT 2-1	0.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.36
HT 2-2	0.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.39

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto at HT / FC Porto at FT	31.7%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Draw at HT / FC Porto at FT	24.1%	21.6%	—	—	4.62
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	21.3%	21.5%	—	—	4.64
Santa Clara at HT / Santa Clara at FT	7.3%	6.1%	—	—	16.48
Draw at HT / Santa Clara at FT	6.9%	6.1%	—	—	16.49
Santa Clara at HT / Draw at FT	3.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.90
FC Porto at HT / Draw at FT	3.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.91
Santa Clara at HT / FC Porto at FT	1.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.96
FC Porto at HT / Santa Clara at FT	0.5%	3.4%	—	—	29.00

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto to score last	61.1%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Santa Clara to score last	23.8%	25.9%	—	—	3.87
No goal scored	15.2%	12.6%	—	—	7.95

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	84.8%	88.1%	—	—	1.14
FC Porto to lead by 1 at any time	65.5%	69.2%	—	—	1.45
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	36.2%	34.8%	—	—	2.88
FC Porto to lead by 2 at any time	31.5%	29.7%	—	—	3.37
Santa Clara to lead by 1 at any time	25.5%	25.2%	—	—	3.96
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	12.4%	10.6%	—	—	9.43
FC Porto to lead by 3 at any time	11.7%	10.6%	—	—	9.44
Santa Clara to lead by 2 at any time	4.7%	1.6%	—	—	60.71
Santa Clara to lead by 3 at any time	0.7%	1.5%	—	—	64.59

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto most corners	61.3%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
Santa Clara most corners	27.7%	31.1%	—	—	3.21
Corners level	10.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	83.6%	83.4%	89.8%	0.93×	1.20
1-4 goals	80.7%	83.4%	83.1%	1.00×	1.20
1-3 goals	72.9%	72.3%	65.2%	1.11×	1.38
1-2 goals	56.2%	59.1%	42.4%	1.39×	1.69
2-6 goals	54.9%	53.2%	73.2%	0.73×	1.88
2-5 goals	54.0%	53.2%	70.3%	0.76×	1.88
2-4 goals	51.1%	53.2%	63.5%	0.84×	1.88
2-3 goals	43.3%	43.6%	45.6%	0.96×	2.29
3-6 goals	28.3%	30.2%	50.5%	0.60×	3.31
3-5 goals	27.4%	30.2%	47.6%	0.63×	3.31
3-4 goals	24.5%	24.5%	40.8%	0.60×	4.09
4-6 goals	11.6%	14.8%	27.7%	0.53×	6.76
4-5 goals	10.7%	14.8%	24.8%	0.60×	6.76
5-6 goals	3.8%	2.6%	9.9%	0.26×	39.10
7+ goals	0.3%	2.5%	0.9%	2.76×	39.26

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto never behind	59.4%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Santa Clara never behind	19.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.5%	50.9%	49.8%	1.02×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.5%	49.1%	50.2%	0.98×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	60.8%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
Odd goals in 1st half	39.2%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	55.3%	58.6%	—	—	1.71
Odd goals in 2nd half	44.7%	41.4%	—	—	2.41

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	98.8%	95.4%	96.1%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	95.9%	95.4%	89.4%	1.07×	1.05
Under 3.5 goals	88.1%	87.6%	71.5%	1.23×	1.14
Over 0.5 goals	84.8%	82.3%	93.5%	0.88×	1.22
Under 2.5 goals	71.4%	72.5%	48.7%	1.49×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	55.2%	58.6%	74.0%	0.79×	1.71
Under 1.5 goals	44.8%	41.4%	26.0%	1.59×	2.42
Over 2.5 goals	28.6%	27.5%	51.3%	0.54×	3.63
Under 0.5 goals	15.2%	17.7%	6.5%	2.73×	5.65
Over 3.5 goals	11.9%	12.4%	28.5%	0.43×	8.07
Over 4.5 goals	4.1%	4.6%	10.6%	0.43×	21.81
Over 5.5 goals	1.2%	4.6%	3.9%	1.19×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.7%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	98.8%	97.2%	95.9%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	95.5%	97.2%	87.1%	1.12×	1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	85.7%	86.7%	63.1%	1.38×	1.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	61.0%	61.9%	33.7%	1.84×	1.62
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	39.0%	38.1%	66.3%	0.57×	2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	14.3%	13.3%	36.9%	0.36×	7.53
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	4.5%	2.8%	12.9%	0.22×	35.55
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	1.2%	2.8%	4.1%	0.68×	35.65
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.3%	2.8%	1.0%	2.94×	35.67

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	95.8%	96.6%	—	—	1.04
Under 1.5 in 1st half	82.3%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	53.3%	53.7%	—	—	1.86
Under 0.5 in 1st half	46.7%	46.3%	—	—	2.16
Over 1.5 in 1st half	17.7%	14.3%	—	—	7.00
Over 2.5 in 1st half	4.2%	3.4%	—	—	29.20

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	90.0%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	69.9%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	66.9%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	33.1%	31.6%	—	—	3.17
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	30.1%	31.4%	—	—	3.19
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	10.0%	14.5%	—	—	6.88

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara not to score in both halves	94.9%	91.1%	—	—	1.10
FC Porto not to score in both halves	77.0%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
FC Porto to score in both halves	23.0%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
Santa Clara to score in both halves	5.1%	8.9%	—	—	11.29

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Only FC Porto scores	44.3%	46.6%	19.9%	2.35×	2.15
Both teams score	29.6%	26.1%	47.9%	0.54×	3.83
Neither team scores	15.2%	16.0%	6.5%	2.48×	6.24
Only Santa Clara scores	10.9%	11.0%	26.0%	0.42×	9.07

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 1 goals	29.6%	24.9%	19.7%	1.26×	4.02
Exactly 2 goals	26.6%	24.9%	22.8%	1.09×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	16.7%	17.5%	23.0%	0.76×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	15.2%	17.4%	6.5%	2.70×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	7.8%	7.6%	18.0%	0.42×	13.14
Exactly 5 goals	2.9%	4.5%	6.9%	0.65×	22.36
6 or more goals	1.2%	4.5%	3.9%	1.16×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	46.7%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
1 goal in 1st half	35.7%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
2 goals in 1st half	13.5%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
3+ goals in 1st half	4.2%	3.4%	—	—	29.20

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	36.8%	39.7%	—	—	2.52
No goals in 2nd half	33.1%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
2+ goals in 2nd half	30.1%	33.9%	—	—	2.95

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara not to win both halves	98.4%	97.3%	—	—	1.03
FC Porto not to win both halves	84.0%	83.5%	—	—	1.20
FC Porto to win both halves	16.0%	16.5%	—	—	6.08
Santa Clara to win both halves	1.6%	2.7%	—	—	36.56

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara to win neither half	76.2%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
FC Porto to win either half	64.8%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
FC Porto to win neither half	35.2%	34.9%	—	—	2.86
Santa Clara to win either half	23.8%	20.5%	—	—	4.88

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara not to win to nil	89.1%	88.1%	74.0%	1.19×	1.14
FC Porto not to win to nil	55.7%	59.0%	80.1%	0.74×	1.69
FC Porto to win to nil	44.3%	41.0%	19.9%	2.06×	2.44
Santa Clara to win to nil	10.9%	11.9%	26.0%	0.46×	8.42

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto by 1	29.4%	27.9%	17.7%	1.57×	3.59
Draw	27.7%	27.9%	26.7%	1.05×	3.59
FC Porto by 2	17.6%	17.0%	7.1%	2.40×	5.87
Santa Clara by 1	11.6%	11.8%	20.0%	0.59×	8.51
FC Porto by 3+	10.7%	11.8%	6.9%	1.70×	8.51
Santa Clara by 2	2.6%	2.7%	12.0%	0.23×	36.89
Santa Clara by 3+	0.5%	2.7%	10.3%	0.26×	36.96