Santos Laguna v Pumas UNAM — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 22 October 2026 · MEX-Liga MX · 2627
MEX-Liga MX
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,799 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.5%
- 1-2 9.6%
- 0-1 9.2%
- 0-2 8.5%
- 0-0 7.2%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 52.7% | Under 2.5 | 47.3% |
| BTTS yes | 55.7% | BTTS no | 44.3% |
| Santos Laguna 1+ | 67.6% | Santos Laguna 2+ | 31.1% |
| Pumas UNAM 1+ | 80.9% | Pumas UNAM 2+ | 49.3% |
Expected goals 1.13 – 1.66. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Pumas UNAM carry the stronger rating, 1593 Elo against 1414.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Pumas UNAM have an estimated 48.6% win probability, against 28.0% for the draw and 23.4% for Santos. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.13 for Santos and 1.66 for Pumas UNAM.
Why Santos Laguna
Nothing in the data singles out Santos.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 28.0%. Draws run at 24% in this competition.
Why Pumas UNAM can win
Pumas UNAM carry the stronger rating, 1593 Elo against 1414.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Santos, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Pumas UNAM, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Santos: 52% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Pumas UNAM: 48% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Pumas UNAM are the model's most likely outcome at 48.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.5%. Confidence 35/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.10–1.85 | 1-1 12% | 57% | 57% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.