Santos v Palmeiras — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 28 October 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627

Brasileirão results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Santos

18:00 UTC

Palmeiras

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 103h before kick-off

Santos win

26.5%

model 27.4%

Draw

26.5%

model 27.0%

Palmeiras win

47.0%

model 45.5%

272747

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.9%
1-2 9.3%
0-1 8.9%
0-2 7.9%
0-0 7.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	52.2%	Under 2.5	47.8%
BTTS yes	56.1%	BTTS no	43.9%
Santos 1+	69.3%	Santos 2+	33.1%
Palmeiras 1+	79.4%	Palmeiras 2+	46.9%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.58. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

84/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Palmeiras (DNB)

Draw no bet · usually 33%

63.0% fair odds 1.59

strong signal · 330 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time

82.5% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1271 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Palmeiras carry the stronger rating, 1732 Elo against 1516.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Palmeiras have an estimated 47.0% win probability, against 26.5% for Santos and 26.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.18 for Santos and 1.58 for Palmeiras.

Why Santos

Nothing in the data singles out Santos.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.5%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Palmeiras can win

Palmeiras carry the stronger rating, 1732 Elo against 1516.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Santos, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Palmeiras, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Santos: 54% possession, 16.6 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Palmeiras: 51% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Palmeiras are the model's most likely outcome at 47.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.9%. Confidence 84/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	272746	1.18–1.58	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	262847	1.09–1.55	1-1 13%	49%	54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to win	46.8%	47.4%	24.0%	1.98×	2.11
Draw	27.5%	27.9%	27.3%	1.02×	3.58
Santos to win	25.7%	27.9%	48.9%	0.57×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras & not both score	25.3%	25.2%	13.8%	1.82×	3.98
Palmeiras & both teams score	21.5%	21.8%	10.3%	2.11×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.3%	18.0%	20.8%	0.86×	5.56
Santos & both teams score	12.7%	13.3%	21.0%	0.63×	7.54
Santos & not both score	13.0%	13.3%	28.1%	0.47×	7.54
Draw & not both score	8.2%	8.3%	6.7%	1.25×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras & over 1.5	36.9%	34.9%	17.1%	2.04×	2.87
Palmeiras & under 3.5	32.2%	30.8%	18.6%	1.66×	3.25
Palmeiras & over 2.5	28.4%	26.1%	13.2%	1.98×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	21.3%	21.6%	20.2%	1.07×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	21.3%	21.6%	20.2%	1.07×	4.63
Santos & over 1.5	19.0%	18.0%	36.7%	0.49×	5.56
Santos & under 3.5	19.0%	18.0%	36.8%	0.49×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	19.3%	18.0%	20.8%	0.87×	5.56
Palmeiras & under 2.5	18.5%	18.0%	11.0%	1.64×	5.56
Santos & over 2.5	14.8%	12.8%	27.5%	0.47×	7.79
Palmeiras & over 3.5	14.6%	12.8%	5.6%	2.31×	7.79
Santos & under 2.5	10.9%	12.8%	21.6%	0.59×	7.79
Palmeiras & under 1.5	9.9%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	8.2%	7.9%	6.7%	1.19×	12.63
Santos & under 1.5	6.7%	7.9%	12.4%	0.64×	12.63
Santos & over 3.5	6.6%	7.9%	12.2%	0.65×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.2%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.2%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (1UP)	62.0%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Santos (1UP)	43.5%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (2UP)	46.8%	50.0%	—	—	2.00
Santos (2UP)	25.7%	25.0%	—	—	3.99

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to win 2nd half	40.9%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
2nd half drawn	36.0%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
Santos to win 2nd half	23.1%	24.1%	—	—	4.14

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras under 1.5 in 2nd half	76.1%	78.8%	—	—	1.27
Palmeiras over 0.5 in 2nd half	60.6%	60.1%	—	—	1.66
Palmeiras under 0.5 in 2nd half	39.4%	39.9%	—	—	2.51
Palmeiras over 1.5 in 2nd half	23.9%	21.2%	—	—	4.73

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos under 1.5 in 2nd half	87.0%	88.3%	—	—	1.13
Santos under 0.5 in 2nd half	53.6%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Santos over 0.5 in 2nd half	46.4%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
Santos over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.0%	11.7%	—	—	8.56

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (+2.5)	96.9%	96.3%	90.8%	1.06×	1.04
Palmeiras (+1.5)	89.7%	88.5%	76.8%	1.15×	1.13
Palmeiras (+0.5)	74.3%	73.7%	51.1%	1.44×	1.36
Santos (+0.5)	53.2%	52.4%	76.0%	0.69×	1.91
Palmeiras (-0.5)	46.8%	47.6%	24.0%	1.99×	2.10
Santos (-0.5)	25.7%	26.3%	48.9%	0.54×	3.80
Santos (-1.5)	10.3%	11.5%	23.2%	0.50×	8.68
Santos (-2.5)	3.1%	3.7%	9.2%	0.40×	27.11

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to concede	66.5%	72.3%	79.7%	0.91×	1.38
Palmeiras clean sheet	33.5%	27.7%	20.3%	1.36×	3.61

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras clean sheet in 1st half	62.5%	64.9%	—	—	1.54
Palmeiras to concede in 1st half	37.5%	35.1%	—	—	2.85

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras clean sheet in 2nd half	53.6%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Palmeiras to concede in 2nd half	46.4%	45.0%	—	—	2.22

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras over 2.5 corners	81.8%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Palmeiras under 6.5 corners	69.0%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Palmeiras over 3.5 corners	68.9%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Palmeiras under 5.5 corners	57.8%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Palmeiras over 4.5 corners	55.2%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Palmeiras under 4.5 corners	44.8%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Palmeiras over 5.5 corners	42.2%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Palmeiras under 3.5 corners	31.1%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Palmeiras over 6.5 corners	31.0%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Palmeiras under 2.5 corners	18.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras under 3.5 goals	92.8%	92.3%	97.9%	0.94×	1.08
Palmeiras under 2.5 goals	79.5%	76.3%	90.8%	0.84×	1.31
Palmeiras over 0.5 goals	78.8%	76.3%	65.4%	1.17×	1.31
Palmeiras under 1.5 goals	54.0%	53.5%	71.9%	0.74×	1.87
Palmeiras over 1.5 goals	46.0%	46.5%	28.1%	1.65×	2.15
Palmeiras under 0.5 goals	21.2%	23.7%	34.6%	0.69×	4.21
Palmeiras over 2.5 goals	20.5%	23.7%	9.2%	2.58×	4.22
Palmeiras over 3.5 goals	7.2%	7.7%	2.1%	3.71×	13.06

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras under 1.5 in 1st half	87.1%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Palmeiras under 0.5 in 1st half	53.7%	55.7%	—	—	1.79
Palmeiras over 0.5 in 1st half	46.3%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Palmeiras over 1.5 in 1st half	12.9%	10.9%	—	—	9.22

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras scores more in 2nd half	41.3%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Palmeiras scores equally in both	35.3%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Palmeiras scores more in 1st half	23.4%	22.1%	—	—	4.52

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	51.7%	51.7%	35.8%	1.44×	1.94
Santos (away no bet)	48.3%	48.3%	64.2%	0.75×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras even goals	52.2%	52.6%	54.9%	0.96×	1.90
Palmeiras odd goals	47.8%	47.4%	45.1%	1.05×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	86.3%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	13.7%	12.2%	—	—	8.17

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	62.7%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals	37.3%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	54.5%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
Palmeiras to score 2+ in a row	38.2%	36.7%	—	—	2.73
Santos to score 2+ in a row	22.0%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Either team to score 3+ in a row	19.2%	16.3%	—	—	6.14
Palmeiras to score 3+ in a row	13.9%	12.1%	—	—	8.28
Santos to score 3+ in a row	5.5%	5.5%	—	—	18.12

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos corners (+3.5)	82.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Santos corners (+2.5)	76.5%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Palmeiras corners (+3.5)	74.2%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Santos corners (+1.5)	69.0%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Palmeiras corners (+2.5)	66.5%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Palmeiras corners (+1.5)	57.9%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Santos corners (-1.5)	42.1%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Santos corners (-2.5)	33.5%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Palmeiras corners (-1.5)	31.0%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Santos corners (-3.5)	25.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Palmeiras corners (-2.5)	23.5%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Palmeiras corners (-3.5)	17.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.94

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	44.8%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
0-8 corners	28.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
9-11 corners	26.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	79.1%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 8.5 corners	71.1%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	63.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	62.4%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 11.5 corners	55.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 10.5 corners	53.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 10.5 corners	46.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 11.5 corners	44.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 9.5 corners	37.6%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 12.5 corners	36.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 8.5 corners	28.9%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	20.9%	23.4%	—	—	4.28

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.1%	11.5%	13.7%	0.84×	8.72
1-2	9.3%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.50
0-1	9.9%	7.4%	7.0%	1.06×	13.50
0-2	8.5%	7.4%	4.1%	1.79×	13.51
1-0	6.7%	7.4%	12.4%	0.60×	13.51
2-1	6.6%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.51
0-0	8.2%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.51
2-2	5.1%	7.4%	5.6%	1.33×	13.51
1-3	4.8%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.29
0-3	4.4%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.29
0-4	1.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.31
1-4	1.9%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.31
2-0	4.2%	1.7%	9.4%	0.18×	58.30
2-3	2.6%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.30
2-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.31
3-0	1.5%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.31
3-1	2.4%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.31
3-2	1.9%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.31
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.9%	0.90×	58.31
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	10.80×	58.32
4-0	0.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.32
4-1	0.7%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.32
4-2	0.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.80×	58.32
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	10.80×	58.32
Any other score	2.6%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (2nd half DNB)	63.9%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
Santos (2nd half DNB)	36.1%	37.0%	—	—	2.71

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras leading at HT (DNB)	58.9%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Santos leading at HT (DNB)	41.1%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras or draw (X2)	74.3%	72.1%	51.1%	1.41×	1.39
Santos or Palmeiras (12)	72.5%	72.1%	72.7%	0.99×	1.39
Santos or draw (1X)	53.2%	52.6%	76.0%	0.69×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras or draw at HT	77.2%	79.2%	—	—	1.26
Santos or draw at HT	67.3%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Santos or Palmeiras at HT	55.5%	57.1%	—	—	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras or draw (1UP)	74.3%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Santos or draw (1UP)	53.2%	58.7%	—	—	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras or draw in 2nd half	76.9%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Santos or Palmeiras in 2nd half	64.0%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Santos or draw in 2nd half	59.1%	58.1%	—	—	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.3%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	36.7%	38.5%	—	—	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (DNB)	64.6%	62.8%	32.9%	1.91×	1.59
Santos (DNB)	35.4%	37.2%	67.1%	0.55×	2.69

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to score first	53.9%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Santos to score first	37.9%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
No goal scored	8.2%	7.5%	—	—	13.37

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.5%	51.3%	51.7%	0.99×	1.95
Not both teams to score	46.5%	48.7%	48.3%	1.01×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	40.4%	41.6%	38.3%	1.09×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	37.5%	38.4%	38.9%	0.99×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	13.1%	12.4%	13.7%	0.91×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.9%	8.3%	9.5%	0.87×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.3%	85.6%	87.1%	0.98×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.7%	14.4%	12.9%	1.12×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.5%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.5%	26.4%	—	—	3.79

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	58.8%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	23.6%	21.3%	—	—	4.69
Both score 1st half only	12.7%	10.7%	—	—	9.31
Both score in both halves	4.9%	5.0%	—	—	20.05

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.4%	83.3%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	17.6%	16.7%	—	—	5.98

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	52.9%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
A half without a goal	47.1%	47.2%	—	—	2.12

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.8%	47.2%	49.7%	0.95×	2.12
4-6 goals	25.6%	26.6%	24.3%	1.10×	3.76
0-1 goals	24.8%	22.9%	25.7%	0.89×	4.36
7+ goals	1.9%	1.8%	0.6%	2.90×	54.32

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to score exactly 1	32.9%	33.8%	37.5%	0.90×	2.96
Palmeiras to score exactly 2	25.5%	27.4%	19.0%	1.44×	3.66
Palmeiras to score exactly 0	21.2%	22.3%	34.6%	0.64×	4.49
Palmeiras to score 3+	20.5%	22.3%	9.2%	2.42×	4.49

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.6%	34.3%	1.04×	2.81
Santos to score exactly 0	33.5%	32.6%	20.3%	1.60×	3.07
Santos to score exactly 2	20.0%	23.3%	27.1%	0.86×	4.29
Santos to score 3+	9.8%	10.3%	18.6%	0.56×	9.68

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	44.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Palmeiras leading at HT	32.7%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Santos leading at HT	22.8%	20.8%	—	—	4.82

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras -1: 1	53.2%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Palmeiras -1: 2	24.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Palmeiras -1: X	22.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (0:1)	74.3%	71.2%	51.1%	1.39×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	15.4%	17.8%	25.9%	0.69×	5.62
Santos (0:1)	10.3%	13.7%	23.2%	0.59×	7.31

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (0:2)	89.7%	87.1%	76.8%	1.13×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	7.2%	7.7%	14.1%	0.54×	13.04
Santos (0:2)	3.1%	3.7%	9.2%	0.41×	26.69

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (0:3)	96.9%	96.6%	90.8%	1.06×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.3%	2.4%	6.7%	0.36×	42.11
Santos (0:3)	0.7%	2.4%	2.7%	0.88×	42.18

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (0:4)	99.3%	98.1%	97.3%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	1.7%	0.70×	82.04
Santos (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	1.1%	1.10×	82.09

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos (1:0)	53.2%	54.0%	76.0%	0.71×	1.85
Palmeiras (1:0)	24.5%	21.7%	9.5%	2.28×	4.61
Draw (1:0)	22.3%	21.7%	14.6%	1.49×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos (2:0)	75.5%	80.4%	90.5%	0.89×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	14.5%	10.3%	6.2%	1.67×	9.70
Palmeiras (2:0)	10.0%	6.4%	3.5%	1.83×	15.66

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.1%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
Halves equal	26.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	25.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos to concede	78.8%	76.1%	65.4%	1.16×	1.31
Santos clean sheet	21.2%	23.9%	34.6%	0.69×	4.19

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos clean sheet in 1st half	53.7%	55.7%	—	—	1.79
Santos to concede in 1st half	46.3%	44.3%	—	—	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos to concede in 2nd half	60.6%	59.7%	—	—	1.67
Santos clean sheet in 2nd half	39.4%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos over 2.5 corners	86.1%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Santos over 3.5 corners	75.3%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Santos over 4.5 corners	63.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Santos under 6.5 corners	60.9%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Santos over 5.5 corners	50.6%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Santos under 5.5 corners	49.4%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Santos over 6.5 corners	39.1%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Santos under 4.5 corners	37.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Santos under 3.5 corners	24.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Santos under 2.5 corners	13.9%	13.8%	—	—	7.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos under 3.5 goals	97.5%	96.4%	94.3%	1.02×	1.04
Santos under 2.5 goals	90.2%	92.2%	81.4%	1.13×	1.08
Santos under 1.5 goals	70.1%	74.2%	54.4%	1.36×	1.35
Santos over 0.5 goals	66.5%	68.0%	79.7%	0.85×	1.47
Santos under 0.5 goals	33.5%	32.0%	20.3%	1.58×	3.12
Santos over 1.5 goals	29.9%	25.8%	45.6%	0.57×	3.88
Santos over 2.5 goals	9.8%	7.8%	18.6%	0.42×	12.86
Santos over 3.5 goals	2.5%	3.6%	5.7%	0.64×	27.55

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos under 1.5 in 1st half	91.9%	94.7%	—	—	1.06
Santos under 0.5 in 1st half	62.5%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Santos over 0.5 in 1st half	37.5%	35.3%	—	—	2.83
Santos over 1.5 in 1st half	8.1%	5.3%	—	—	18.79

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos scores equally in both	44.1%	42.3%	—	—	2.36
Santos scores more in 2nd half	33.0%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Santos scores more in 1st half	23.0%	21.3%	—	—	4.70

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (home no bet)	63.0%	60.0%	46.7%	1.28×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	37.0%	40.0%	53.3%	0.75×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos even goals	55.6%	55.2%	51.6%	1.07×	1.81
Santos odd goals	44.4%	44.8%	48.4%	0.92×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	33.8%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
HT 0-1	20.7%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 1-0	15.6%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 1-1	10.0%	6.9%	—	—	14.43
HT 0-2	6.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.49
HT 2-0	3.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.05
Any other HT score	3.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.05
HT 1-2	3.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.10
HT 2-1	2.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.15
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.25

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras at HT / Palmeiras at FT	26.3%	27.3%	—	—	3.66
Draw at HT / Palmeiras at FT	17.5%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	17.2%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Santos at HT / Santos at FT	14.4%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Santos at FT	9.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.54
Santos at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.67
Palmeiras at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.61
Santos at HT / Palmeiras at FT	3.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.68
Palmeiras at HT / Santos at FT	1.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.73

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to score last	54.0%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Santos to score last	37.9%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
No goal scored	8.2%	7.5%	—	—	13.37

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	91.8%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Palmeiras to lead by 1 at any time	62.0%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	45.7%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
Santos to lead by 1 at any time	43.5%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Palmeiras to lead by 2 at any time	30.7%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.3%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Santos to lead by 2 at any time	15.2%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Palmeiras to lead by 3 at any time	12.1%	10.5%	—	—	9.57
Santos to lead by 3 at any time	4.2%	1.6%	—	—	60.64

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos most corners	51.3%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Palmeiras most corners	39.6%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	9.1%	8.4%	—	—	11.97

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.6%	87.4%	88.7%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.9%	78.7%	81.7%	0.96×	1.27
2-6 goals	73.4%	72.4%	73.8%	0.98×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.0%	68.8%	69.7%	0.99×	1.45
1-3 goals	64.4%	63.3%	68.7%	0.92×	1.58
2-4 goals	62.3%	63.3%	62.7%	1.01×	1.58
2-3 goals	47.8%	48.5%	49.7%	0.98×	2.06
3-6 goals	47.5%	48.5%	47.1%	1.03×	2.06
3-5 goals	44.1%	43.6%	43.0%	1.01×	2.29
1-2 goals	42.5%	43.6%	45.9%	0.95×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.4%	39.2%	36.0%	1.09×	2.55
4-6 goals	25.6%	30.2%	24.3%	1.24×	3.31
4-5 goals	22.2%	24.5%	20.2%	1.21×	4.08
5-6 goals	11.1%	14.8%	11.3%	1.31×	6.76
7+ goals	1.9%	2.6%	0.6%	4.02×	39.14

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras never behind	48.3%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Santos never behind	29.9%	30.2%	—	—	3.32

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.6%	50.9%	49.2%	1.03×	1.96
Even number of goals	52.4%	49.1%	50.8%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	44.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.0%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.0%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.7%	92.3%	95.2%	0.97×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	91.8%	92.3%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	87.1%	87.6%	88.3%	0.99×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	75.2%	77.3%	74.3%	1.04×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	72.6%	72.5%	75.2%	0.96×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	50.7%	52.5%	52.4%	1.00×	1.91
Over 2.5 goals	49.3%	47.5%	47.6%	1.00×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	27.4%	27.5%	24.8%	1.11×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	24.8%	22.7%	25.7%	0.88×	4.40
Over 4.5 goals	12.9%	12.4%	11.7%	1.06×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	8.2%	7.7%	6.7%	1.16×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	5.3%	7.7%	4.8%	1.62×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.1%	97.2%	99.3%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.3%	92.4%	94.9%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	84.9%	81.1%	86.5%	0.94×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	66.6%	67.4%	64.9%	1.04×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	64.9%	61.9%	67.9%	0.91×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	35.1%	38.1%	32.1%	1.19×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	33.4%	32.6%	35.1%	0.93×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	15.1%	18.9%	13.5%	1.40×	5.30
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.7%	7.6%	5.1%	1.48×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.9%	2.8%	0.7%	4.24×	35.60

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.2%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	70.0%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	66.2%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	33.8%	31.5%	—	—	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	30.0%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.8%	7.5%	—	—	13.34

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.5%	79.2%	—	—	1.26
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.5%	79.2%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.6%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.4%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.5%	20.8%	—	—	4.80
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.5%	20.8%	—	—	4.81

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos not to score in both halves	82.6%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Palmeiras not to score in both halves	72.0%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Palmeiras to score in both halves	28.0%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
Santos to score in both halves	17.4%	15.7%	—	—	6.37

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	53.5%	53.9%	51.7%	1.04×	1.86
Only Palmeiras scores	25.3%	26.0%	13.8%	1.88×	3.84
Only Santos scores	13.0%	11.0%	28.1%	0.39×	9.06
Neither team scores	8.2%	7.1%	6.7%	1.07×	14.03

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.9%	24.9%	26.8%	0.93×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	21.9%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	16.6%	17.5%	19.2%	0.91×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.5%	12.1%	13.2%	0.92×	8.24
Exactly 0 goals	8.2%	7.6%	6.7%	1.14×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	7.7%	7.6%	7.1%	1.07×	13.14
6 or more goals	5.3%	7.6%	4.8%	1.60×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.3%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	33.8%	35.8%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	20.2%	21.4%	—	—	4.67
3+ goals in 1st half	9.8%	7.5%	—	—	13.34

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	46.4%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
1 goal in 2nd half	32.1%	33.8%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	21.5%	22.9%	—	—	4.37

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos not to win both halves	94.6%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Palmeiras not to win both halves	86.4%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Palmeiras to win both halves	13.6%	12.1%	—	—	8.28
Santos to win both halves	5.4%	5.8%	—	—	17.13

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to win either half	60.0%	59.2%	—	—	1.69
Santos to win neither half	59.5%	59.2%	—	—	1.69
Santos to win either half	40.5%	40.8%	—	—	2.45
Palmeiras to win neither half	40.0%	40.8%	—	—	2.45

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos not to win to nil	87.0%	88.1%	71.9%	1.23×	1.14
Palmeiras not to win to nil	74.7%	75.4%	86.2%	0.87×	1.33
Palmeiras to win to nil	25.3%	24.6%	13.8%	1.78×	4.06
Santos to win to nil	13.0%	11.9%	28.1%	0.42×	8.41

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.5%	27.9%	27.3%	1.02×	3.59
Palmeiras by 1	22.3%	24.1%	14.6%	1.65×	4.15
Santos by 1	15.4%	17.0%	25.9%	0.66×	5.87
Palmeiras by 2	14.5%	11.8%	6.2%	1.90×	8.50
Palmeiras by 3+	10.0%	7.2%	3.5%	2.06×	13.90
Santos by 2	7.2%	7.2%	14.1%	0.51×	13.91
Santos by 3+	3.1%	2.7%	9.2%	0.30×	36.81