São Paulo v Atlético-MG — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627

Brasileirão results-only Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

São Paulo

21:30 UTC

Atlético-MG

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23

São Paulo win

37.3%

model 39.3%

Draw

31.4%

model 30.5%

Atlético-MG win

31.4%

model 30.2%

373131

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (5,276 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 14.4%
0-0 10.8%
1-0 10.7%
0-1 9.0%
2-1 8.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	41.9%	Under 2.5	58.1%
BTTS yes	49.0%	BTTS no	51.0%
São Paulo 1+	71.9%	São Paulo 2+	36.3%
Atlético-MG 1+	66.2%	Atlético-MG 2+	29.5%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.09. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

78/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Atlético-MG (+0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 51%

64.0% fair odds 1.56

moderate signal · 1009 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Atlético-MG (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 77%

83.6% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 453 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out São Paulo.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

São Paulo have an estimated 37.3% win probability, against 31.4% for the draw and 31.4% for Atlético-MG. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.27 for São Paulo and 1.08 for Atlético-MG.

Why São Paulo

Nothing in the data singles out São Paulo.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 31.4%. A combined 2.36 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.27 to 1.08. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Atlético-MG can win

Atlético-MG carry the stronger rating, 1575 Elo against 1467. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for São Paulo, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Atlético-MG, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

São Paulo: 56% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Atlético-MG: 50% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 16.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. São Paulo's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

São Paulo are the model's most likely outcome at 37.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.4%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	383032	1.29–1.16	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	373132	1.15–1.06	1-1 15%	38%	46%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo to win	38.4%	37.1%	49.0%	0.76×	2.69
Atlético-MG to win	31.9%	29.0%	24.0%	1.21×	3.45
Draw	29.7%	27.6%	27.2%	1.02×	3.62

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo & not both score	21.6%	22.6%	28.1%	0.80×	4.43
Draw & both teams score	19.8%	17.8%	20.7%	0.86×	5.63
Atlético-MG & not both score	17.7%	17.8%	13.8%	1.28×	5.63
São Paulo & both teams score	16.8%	17.7%	21.0%	0.85×	5.64
Atlético-MG & both teams score	14.3%	12.2%	10.3%	1.18×	8.21
Draw & not both score	9.9%	7.3%	6.7%	1.10×	13.62

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo & under 3.5	28.6%	25.5%	36.9%	0.69×	3.92
São Paulo & over 1.5	28.4%	25.5%	36.7%	0.69×	3.92
Atlético-MG & under 3.5	24.3%	21.5%	18.6%	1.16×	4.65
Draw & under 2.5	24.0%	21.5%	20.2%	1.07×	4.65
Draw & under 3.5	24.0%	21.5%	20.2%	1.07×	4.65
Atlético-MG & over 1.5	23.1%	21.5%	17.2%	1.25×	4.65
São Paulo & over 2.5	21.2%	21.5%	27.5%	0.78×	4.65
Draw & over 1.5	19.8%	17.6%	20.7%	0.85×	5.69
Atlético-MG & over 2.5	17.3%	17.6%	13.2%	1.33×	5.69
São Paulo & under 2.5	17.2%	17.6%	21.6%	0.81×	5.69
Atlético-MG & under 2.5	14.6%	12.7%	11.0%	1.16×	7.86
São Paulo & under 1.5	10.0%	7.5%	12.4%	0.60×	13.39
Draw & under 1.5	9.9%	7.5%	6.7%	1.12×	13.40
São Paulo & over 3.5	9.8%	7.5%	12.2%	0.61×	13.40
Atlético-MG & under 1.5	8.8%	7.5%	7.0%	1.07×	13.40
Atlético-MG & over 3.5	7.6%	7.5%	5.6%	1.34×	13.41
Draw & over 2.5	5.7%	7.5%	7.2%	1.04×	13.42
Draw & over 3.5	5.7%	7.5%	7.2%	1.04×	13.42

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo (1UP)	54.1%	52.5%	—	—	1.90
Atlético-MG (1UP)	48.4%	44.6%	—	—	2.24

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo (2UP)	38.4%	40.6%	—	—	2.47
Atlético-MG (2UP)	31.9%	30.5%	—	—	3.28

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	38.7%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
São Paulo to win 2nd half	31.9%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
Atlético-MG to win 2nd half	29.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.63

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG (+2.5)	93.8%	92.3%	90.8%	1.02×	1.08
Atlético-MG (+1.5)	82.3%	82.3%	76.8%	1.07×	1.22
São Paulo (+0.5)	68.1%	69.0%	76.0%	0.91×	1.45
Atlético-MG (+0.5)	61.6%	64.0%	51.0%	1.25×	1.56
São Paulo (-0.5)	38.4%	36.0%	49.0%	0.73×	2.78
Atlético-MG (-0.5)	31.9%	31.0%	24.0%	1.29×	3.22
São Paulo (-1.5)	17.7%	17.7%	23.2%	0.76×	5.65
São Paulo (-2.5)	6.2%	7.7%	9.2%	0.83×	13.06

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG to concede	72.5%	77.0%	79.7%	0.97×	1.30
Atlético-MG clean sheet	27.5%	23.0%	20.4%	1.13×	4.35

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG clean sheet in 1st half	57.4%	60.3%	—	—	1.66
Atlético-MG to concede in 1st half	42.6%	39.7%	—	—	2.52

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG under 3.5 goals	97.0%	97.3%	97.9%	0.99×	1.03
Atlético-MG under 2.5 goals	88.9%	89.0%	90.9%	0.98×	1.12
Atlético-MG over 0.5 goals	68.5%	67.3%	65.3%	1.03×	1.49
Atlético-MG under 1.5 goals	67.9%	67.2%	72.0%	0.93×	1.49
Atlético-MG over 1.5 goals	32.1%	32.8%	28.0%	1.17×	3.05
Atlético-MG under 0.5 goals	31.5%	32.7%	34.7%	0.94×	3.05
Atlético-MG over 2.5 goals	11.1%	11.0%	9.1%	1.21×	9.09
Atlético-MG over 3.5 goals	3.0%	2.7%	2.1%	1.30×	37.34

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG under 1.5 in 1st half	92.1%	93.2%	—	—	1.07
Atlético-MG under 0.5 in 1st half	63.0%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Atlético-MG over 0.5 in 1st half	37.0%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Atlético-MG over 1.5 in 1st half	7.9%	6.8%	—	—	14.76

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo (away no bet)	56.4%	58.9%	64.3%	0.92×	1.70
Draw (away no bet)	43.6%	41.1%	35.7%	1.15×	2.43

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG even goals	55.0%	52.5%	55.0%	0.95×	1.91
Atlético-MG odd goals	45.0%	47.5%	45.0%	1.06×	2.10

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	88.7%	86.5%	—	—	1.16
Both halves over 1.5 goals	11.3%	13.5%	—	—	7.39

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	58.1%	55.9%	—	—	1.79
Both halves under 1.5 goals	41.9%	44.1%	—	—	2.27

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	49.8%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
São Paulo to score 2+ in a row	29.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.96
Atlético-MG to score 2+ in a row	24.9%	21.8%	—	—	4.58
Either team to score 3+ in a row	15.8%	17.8%	—	—	5.62
São Paulo to score 3+ in a row	9.2%	7.4%	—	—	13.55
Atlético-MG to score 3+ in a row	6.8%	7.3%	—	—	13.66

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	14.1%	11.6%	13.7%	0.85×	8.62
0-0	9.9%	7.3%	6.7%	1.09×	13.73
1-0	10.0%	7.3%	12.4%	0.59×	13.73
0-1	8.8%	7.3%	7.0%	1.04×	13.74
2-1	8.3%	7.3%	10.8%	0.67×	13.74
1-2	7.5%	7.3%	6.2%	1.17×	13.75
2-0	7.2%	7.3%	9.4%	0.78×	13.75
0-2	5.8%	7.3%	4.1%	1.76×	13.75
2-2	4.8%	1.8%	5.6%	0.32×	55.39
1-3	2.9%	1.8%	2.1%	0.87×	55.44
3-0	3.1%	1.8%	4.8%	0.38×	55.43
3-1	3.6%	1.8%	4.0%	0.45×	55.42
Any other score	1.7%	1.8%	2.5%	0.71×	55.47
0-3	2.2%	1.8%	1.7%	1.03×	55.45
2-3	1.9%	1.8%	1.7%	1.03×	55.46
3-2	2.1%	1.8%	2.9%	0.63×	55.46
4-1	1.2%	1.8%	2.1%	0.87×	55.48
4-2	0.7%	1.8%	1.0%	1.89×	55.49
4-3	0.3%	1.8%	0.3%	5.67×	55.50
4-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.2%	11.33×	55.51
0-4	0.6%	1.8%	1.1%	1.62×	55.49
1-4	0.8%	1.8%	0.3%	5.67×	55.49
2-4	0.5%	1.8%	0.3%	5.67×	55.50
3-3	0.8%	1.8%	1.7%	1.03×	55.49
3-4	0.2%	1.8%	0.2%	11.33×	55.50
4-0	1.0%	1.8%	1.1%	1.62×	55.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo leading at HT (DNB)	55.8%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Atlético-MG leading at HT (DNB)	44.2%	43.5%	—	—	2.30

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo or Atlético-MG (12)	70.3%	72.4%	72.8%	0.99×	1.38
São Paulo or draw (1X)	68.1%	71.0%	76.0%	0.93×	1.41
Atlético-MG or draw (X2)	61.6%	62.9%	51.0%	1.23×	1.59

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo or draw at HT	76.3%	78.7%	—	—	1.27
Atlético-MG or draw at HT	70.1%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
São Paulo or Atlético-MG at HT	53.5%	52.1%	—	—	1.92

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo or draw (1UP)	68.1%	75.0%	—	—	1.33
Atlético-MG or draw (1UP)	61.6%	67.6%	—	—	1.48

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo or draw in 2nd half	70.6%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Atlético-MG or draw in 2nd half	68.1%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
São Paulo or Atlético-MG in 2nd half	61.3%	62.5%	—	—	1.60

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	65.9%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Neither half drawn	34.1%	34.0%	—	—	2.94

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo (DNB)	54.6%	52.8%	67.1%	0.79×	1.89
Atlético-MG (DNB)	45.4%	47.2%	32.9%	1.43×	2.12

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo to score first	47.5%	46.2%	—	—	2.17
Atlético-MG to score first	42.6%	41.4%	—	—	2.42
No goal scored	9.9%	6.3%	—	—	15.83

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	50.8%	52.8%	51.7%	1.02×	1.89
Not both teams to score	49.2%	47.2%	48.3%	0.98×	2.12

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	41.7%	42.3%	39.0%	1.08×	2.37
Both score & over 2.5	36.7%	37.4%	38.2%	0.98×	2.67
Both score & under 2.5	14.1%	11.8%	13.7%	0.86×	8.51
Not both score & over 2.5	7.5%	8.7%	9.5%	0.91×	11.48

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	88.1%	85.6%	87.3%	0.98×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	11.9%	14.4%	12.7%	1.13×	6.93

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	73.6%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Both teams to score in 2nd half	26.4%	29.5%	—	—	3.39

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	61.7%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
Both score 2nd half only	22.3%	24.4%	—	—	4.10
Both score 1st half only	11.9%	11.6%	—	—	8.66
Both score in both halves	4.1%	4.8%	—	—	20.76

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.0%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	16.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.97

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	50.9%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
A goal in each half	49.1%	45.4%	—	—	2.20

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.2%	45.9%	49.8%	0.92×	2.18
0-1 goals	28.7%	27.7%	25.8%	1.08×	3.61
4-6 goals	21.8%	22.8%	24.2%	0.94×	4.39
7+ goals	1.3%	1.9%	0.6%	3.03×	51.83

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG to score exactly 1	36.4%	34.6%	37.5%	0.92×	2.89
Atlético-MG to score exactly 0	31.5%	33.2%	34.7%	0.96×	3.01
Atlético-MG to score exactly 2	21.0%	23.9%	19.1%	1.25×	4.18
Atlético-MG to score 3+	11.1%	13.3%	9.1%	1.47×	7.49

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo to score exactly 1	35.5%	35.9%	34.3%	1.05×	2.78
São Paulo to score exactly 0	27.5%	27.1%	20.4%	1.33×	3.69
São Paulo to score exactly 2	22.9%	23.0%	27.2%	0.84×	4.36
São Paulo to score 3+	14.0%	13.5%	18.4%	0.73×	7.40

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	46.5%	47.9%	—	—	2.09
São Paulo leading at HT	29.9%	28.6%	—	—	3.49
Atlético-MG leading at HT	23.7%	21.3%	—	—	4.69

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo -1: 2	61.6%	60.7%	—	—	1.65
São Paulo -1: X	20.7%	23.9%	—	—	4.18
São Paulo -1: 1	17.7%	18.9%	—	—	5.29

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG (0:1)	61.6%	59.7%	51.0%	1.17×	1.68
Draw (0:1)	20.7%	24.4%	25.9%	0.94×	4.10
São Paulo (0:1)	17.7%	18.3%	23.2%	0.79×	5.47

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG (0:2)	82.3%	83.6%	76.8%	1.09×	1.20
Draw (0:2)	11.5%	11.7%	14.1%	0.83×	8.54
São Paulo (0:2)	6.2%	7.1%	9.2%	0.78×	13.99

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG (0:3)	93.8%	92.6%	90.8%	1.02×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.4%	2.3%	6.7%	0.35×	42.63
São Paulo (0:3)	1.7%	2.3%	2.7%	0.86×	43.21

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG (0:4)	98.3%	98.1%	97.3%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.3%	1.2%	1.7%	0.71×	80.66
São Paulo (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	1.1%	1.11×	81.14

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo (1:0)	68.1%	70.3%	76.0%	0.93×	1.42
Draw (1:0)	18.4%	16.4%	14.6%	1.12×	6.10
Atlético-MG (1:0)	13.5%	11.8%	9.5%	1.24×	8.47

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo (2:0)	86.5%	89.2%	90.5%	0.99×	1.12
Draw (2:0)	9.2%	6.6%	6.2%	1.07×	15.05
Atlético-MG (2:0)	4.3%	2.7%	3.5%	0.78×	36.77

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.5%	48.7%	—	—	2.06
Halves equal	28.4%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
1st half highest scoring	26.1%	26.1%	—	—	3.83

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo to concede	68.5%	67.0%	65.3%	1.03×	1.49
São Paulo clean sheet	31.5%	33.0%	34.7%	0.95×	3.03

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo clean sheet in 1st half	63.0%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
São Paulo to concede in 1st half	37.0%	36.6%	—	—	2.74

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo under 3.5 goals	95.8%	97.7%	94.3%	1.04×	1.02
São Paulo under 2.5 goals	86.0%	87.8%	81.6%	1.08×	1.14
São Paulo over 0.5 goals	72.5%	72.7%	79.7%	0.91×	1.38
São Paulo under 1.5 goals	63.1%	62.7%	54.5%	1.15×	1.60
São Paulo over 1.5 goals	36.9%	37.3%	45.5%	0.82×	2.68
São Paulo under 0.5 goals	27.5%	27.3%	20.4%	1.34×	3.67
São Paulo over 2.5 goals	14.0%	12.2%	18.4%	0.66×	8.16
São Paulo over 3.5 goals	4.2%	2.3%	5.7%	0.40×	43.52

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo under 1.5 in 1st half	89.3%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
São Paulo under 0.5 in 1st half	57.4%	60.1%	—	—	1.67
São Paulo over 0.5 in 1st half	42.6%	39.9%	—	—	2.50
São Paulo over 1.5 in 1st half	10.7%	12.1%	—	—	8.26

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	48.2%	51.4%	53.1%	0.97×	1.95
Atlético-MG (home no bet)	51.8%	48.6%	46.9%	1.04×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo even goals	53.8%	50.3%	51.7%	0.97×	1.99
São Paulo odd goals	46.2%	49.7%	48.3%	1.03×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	36.4%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
HT 1-0	19.9%	19.0%	—	—	5.27
HT 0-1	16.5%	18.9%	—	—	5.30
HT 1-1	9.5%	7.7%	—	—	12.97
HT 2-0	5.6%	7.7%	—	—	13.03
HT 0-2	3.9%	2.5%	—	—	39.78
Any other HT score	3.0%	2.5%	—	—	39.83
HT 2-1	2.6%	2.5%	—	—	39.85
HT 1-2	2.1%	2.5%	—	—	39.88
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.5%	—	—	39.97

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo at HT / São Paulo at FT	22.2%	21.4%	—	—	4.67
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	19.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Atlético-MG at HT / Atlético-MG at FT	16.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / São Paulo at FT	14.2%	12.0%	—	—	8.34
Draw at HT / Atlético-MG at FT	13.0%	12.0%	—	—	8.35
São Paulo at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.6%	—	—	15.26
Atlético-MG at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.4%	—	—	29.31
São Paulo at HT / Atlético-MG at FT	2.1%	3.4%	—	—	29.43
Atlético-MG at HT / São Paulo at FT	2.0%	3.4%	—	—	29.43

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo to score last	47.6%	49.1%	—	—	2.04
Atlético-MG to score last	42.5%	40.3%	—	—	2.48
No goal scored	9.9%	6.3%	—	—	15.83

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	90.1%	93.7%	—	—	1.07
São Paulo to lead by 1 at any time	54.1%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Atlético-MG to lead by 1 at any time	48.4%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	41.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
São Paulo to lead by 2 at any time	23.1%	19.8%	—	—	5.05
Atlético-MG to lead by 2 at any time	18.5%	17.7%	—	—	5.66
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	13.2%	11.3%	—	—	8.82
São Paulo to lead by 3 at any time	7.7%	7.1%	—	—	14.18
Atlético-MG to lead by 3 at any time	5.5%	7.0%	—	—	14.27

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.3%	87.9%	88.9%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.0%	78.9%	81.9%	0.96×	1.27
2-6 goals	70.0%	73.6%	73.8%	1.00×	1.36
2-5 goals	67.5%	68.3%	69.8%	0.98×	1.46
1-3 goals	67.1%	68.3%	68.8%	0.99×	1.46
2-4 goals	61.2%	62.3%	62.8%	0.99×	1.61
2-3 goals	48.2%	48.0%	49.8%	0.97×	2.08
1-2 goals	45.9%	48.0%	45.9%	1.04×	2.08
3-6 goals	42.9%	43.6%	47.1%	0.93×	2.29
3-5 goals	40.3%	43.6%	43.1%	1.01×	2.29
3-4 goals	34.0%	34.1%	36.1%	0.95×	2.93
4-6 goals	21.8%	24.7%	24.2%	1.02×	4.05
4-5 goals	19.2%	18.1%	20.2%	0.90×	5.51
5-6 goals	8.9%	8.9%	11.1%	0.80×	11.30
7+ goals	1.3%	2.0%	0.6%	3.16×	49.79

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo never behind	41.7%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Atlético-MG never behind	36.0%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.2%	50.1%	49.3%	1.02×	2.00
Even number of goals	52.8%	49.9%	50.7%	0.98×	2.00

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.0%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Odd goals in 1st half	43.0%	44.7%	—	—	2.24

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.7%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.3%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.2%	95.6%	95.4%	1.00×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	90.1%	92.9%	93.3%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	89.9%	88.8%	88.4%	1.00×	1.13
Under 3.5 goals	76.9%	78.2%	75.4%	1.04×	1.28
Over 1.5 goals	71.3%	72.4%	74.2%	0.97×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	55.8%	57.7%	52.5%	1.10×	1.73
Over 2.5 goals	44.2%	42.3%	47.5%	0.89×	2.36
Under 1.5 goals	28.7%	27.6%	25.8%	1.07×	3.62
Over 3.5 goals	23.1%	21.8%	24.6%	0.88×	4.60
Over 4.5 goals	10.1%	11.2%	11.6%	0.96×	8.93
Under 0.5 goals	9.9%	7.1%	6.7%	1.06×	14.12
Over 5.5 goals	3.8%	4.4%	4.6%	0.95×	22.87

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.7%	97.2%	99.3%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.9%	97.2%	95.0%	1.02×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	88.3%	88.1%	86.7%	1.02×	1.14
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	70.8%	72.0%	68.0%	1.06×	1.39
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	60.6%	62.3%	64.9%	0.96×	1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	39.4%	37.7%	35.1%	1.07×	2.65
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	29.2%	28.0%	32.0%	0.88×	3.58
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	11.7%	11.9%	13.3%	0.89×	8.42
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.1%	2.8%	5.0%	0.56×	35.82
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.3%	2.8%	0.7%	4.16×	36.26

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	91.7%	92.2%	—	—	1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half	72.8%	72.4%	—	—	1.38
Over 0.5 in 1st half	63.6%	63.1%	—	—	1.59
Under 0.5 in 1st half	36.4%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
Over 1.5 in 1st half	27.2%	27.6%	—	—	3.63
Over 2.5 in 1st half	8.3%	7.8%	—	—	12.82

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	82.7%	82.1%	—	—	1.22
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	75.6%	80.2%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	57.8%	54.2%	—	—	1.84
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	42.2%	45.8%	—	—	2.18
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	24.4%	19.8%	—	—	5.05
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	17.3%	17.9%	—	—	5.58

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG not to score in both halves	81.5%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
São Paulo not to score in both halves	77.8%	78.1%	—	—	1.28
São Paulo to score in both halves	22.2%	21.9%	—	—	4.57
Atlético-MG to score in both halves	18.5%	18.5%	—	—	5.40

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	50.8%	54.6%	51.7%	1.06×	1.83
Only São Paulo scores	21.6%	22.8%	28.1%	0.81×	4.39
Only Atlético-MG scores	17.7%	16.4%	13.8%	1.19×	6.10
Neither team scores	9.9%	6.7%	6.7%	1.00×	14.94

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	27.1%	24.7%	26.9%	0.92×	4.04
Exactly 3 goals	21.1%	21.5%	23.1%	0.93×	4.64
Exactly 1 goals	18.8%	18.6%	19.2%	0.97×	5.38
Exactly 4 goals	12.9%	12.4%	13.2%	0.94×	8.09
Exactly 0 goals	9.9%	7.6%	6.7%	1.14×	13.10
Exactly 5 goals	6.3%	7.6%	7.2%	1.06×	13.15
6 or more goals	3.8%	4.4%	4.6%	0.95×	22.90

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	42.2%	46.3%	—	—	2.16
1 goal in 2nd half	33.4%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
No goals in 2nd half	24.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG not to win both halves	92.9%	93.4%	—	—	1.07
São Paulo not to win both halves	90.3%	93.3%	—	—	1.07
São Paulo to win both halves	9.7%	6.7%	—	—	14.95
Atlético-MG to win both halves	7.1%	6.6%	—	—	15.11

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG to win neither half	54.1%	54.0%	—	—	1.85
São Paulo to win either half	52.1%	53.9%	—	—	1.85
São Paulo to win neither half	47.9%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
Atlético-MG to win either half	46.0%	46.0%	—	—	2.17

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG not to win to nil	82.3%	83.3%	86.2%	0.97×	1.20
São Paulo not to win to nil	78.4%	77.2%	71.9%	1.07×	1.30
São Paulo to win to nil	21.6%	22.8%	28.1%	0.81×	4.39
Atlético-MG to win to nil	17.7%	16.7%	13.8%	1.21×	5.97

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	29.7%	28.1%	27.2%	1.03×	3.56
São Paulo by 1	20.7%	23.7%	25.9%	0.92×	4.22
Atlético-MG by 1	18.4%	17.0%	14.6%	1.16×	5.89
São Paulo by 2	11.5%	11.8%	14.1%	0.84×	8.44
Atlético-MG by 2	9.2%	7.1%	6.2%	1.15×	14.06
São Paulo by 3+	6.2%	7.1%	9.2%	0.77×	14.13
Atlético-MG by 3+	4.3%	2.8%	3.5%	0.81×	35.16