São Paulo v Corinthians — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 4 November 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627

Brasileirão results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

São Paulo

20:00 UTC

Corinthians

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 225h before kick-off

São Paulo win

39.9%

model 39.9%

Draw

31.1%

model 30.7%

Corinthians win

29.0%

model 29.4%

403129

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 14.4%
1-0 11.6%
0-0 11.4%
0-1 9.4%
2-1 8.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	39.8%	Under 2.5	60.2%
BTTS yes	47.1%	BTTS no	52.9%
São Paulo 1+	71.2%	São Paulo 2+	35.4%
Corinthians 1+	64.4%	Corinthians 2+	27.6%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.03. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

83/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Under 3.5 goals

Over/Under · usually 75%

81.1% fair odds 1.23

moderate signal · 1833 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Corinthians (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 77%

83.6% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out São Paulo.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

São Paulo have an estimated 39.9% win probability, against 31.1% for the draw and 29.0% for Corinthians. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.25 for São Paulo and 1.03 for Corinthians.

Why São Paulo

Nothing in the data singles out São Paulo.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 31.1%. A combined 2.28 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.25 to 1.03. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Corinthians can win

Corinthians carry the stronger rating, 1548 Elo against 1474.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for São Paulo, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Corinthians, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

São Paulo: 56% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Corinthians: 53% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

São Paulo are the model's most likely outcome at 39.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.4%. Confidence 83/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	403129	1.25–1.03	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	393328	1.10–0.88	0-0 15%	32%	40%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo to win	39.2%	36.4%	48.9%	0.74×	2.75
Draw	33.3%	30.4%	27.3%	1.11×	3.29
Corinthians to win	27.5%	27.9%	24.0%	1.16×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo & not both score	26.6%	25.2%	28.1%	0.90×	3.97
Corinthians & not both score	18.3%	18.0%	13.8%	1.30×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	18.1%	18.0%	20.8%	0.86×	5.56
Draw & not both score	15.1%	18.0%	6.7%	2.70×	5.57
São Paulo & both teams score	12.6%	13.3%	21.0%	0.63×	7.54
Corinthians & both teams score	9.3%	8.3%	10.3%	0.81×	11.99

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo & under 3.5	32.8%	30.8%	36.8%	0.84×	3.25
Draw & under 2.5	29.7%	26.1%	20.2%	1.29×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	29.7%	26.1%	20.2%	1.29×	3.84
São Paulo & over 1.5	25.1%	26.0%	36.7%	0.71×	3.84
Corinthians & under 3.5	23.7%	21.6%	18.6%	1.16×	4.63
São Paulo & under 2.5	22.4%	21.6%	21.6%	1.00×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	18.1%	18.0%	20.8%	0.87×	5.55
São Paulo & over 2.5	16.8%	18.0%	27.5%	0.66×	5.56
Corinthians & over 1.5	16.6%	18.0%	17.1%	1.05×	5.56
Corinthians & under 2.5	16.3%	18.0%	11.0%	1.64×	5.56
Draw & under 1.5	15.1%	18.0%	6.7%	2.70×	5.56
São Paulo & under 1.5	14.1%	12.8%	12.4%	1.04×	7.79
Corinthians & under 1.5	11.0%	12.8%	7.0%	1.84×	7.79
Corinthians & over 2.5	11.2%	12.8%	13.2%	0.97×	7.79
São Paulo & over 3.5	6.4%	7.9%	12.2%	0.65×	12.63
Corinthians & over 3.5	3.8%	4.8%	5.6%	0.86×	20.82
Draw & over 2.5	3.6%	4.8%	7.3%	0.66×	20.82
Draw & over 3.5	3.6%	4.8%	7.3%	0.66×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo (1UP)	52.0%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Corinthians (1UP)	41.3%	38.5%	—	—	2.60

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo (2UP)	39.2%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Corinthians (2UP)	27.5%	25.2%	—	—	3.97

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	43.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
São Paulo to win 2nd half	31.3%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
Corinthians to win 2nd half	24.9%	24.4%	—	—	4.09

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians under 1.5 in 2nd half	90.2%	91.5%	—	—	1.09
Corinthians under 0.5 in 2nd half	59.2%	54.5%	—	—	1.84
Corinthians over 0.5 in 2nd half	40.8%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
Corinthians over 1.5 in 2nd half	9.8%	8.5%	—	—	11.75

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo under 1.5 in 2nd half	87.0%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
São Paulo under 0.5 in 2nd half	53.5%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
São Paulo over 0.5 in 2nd half	46.5%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
São Paulo over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.0%	11.3%	—	—	8.86

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians (+2.5)	94.9%	92.1%	90.8%	1.01×	1.09
Corinthians (+1.5)	83.5%	82.6%	76.8%	1.07×	1.21
São Paulo (+0.5)	72.5%	73.7%	76.0%	0.97×	1.36
Corinthians (+0.5)	60.8%	62.9%	51.1%	1.23×	1.59
São Paulo (-0.5)	39.2%	37.1%	48.9%	0.76×	2.70
Corinthians (-0.5)	27.5%	26.3%	24.0%	1.10×	3.80
São Paulo (-1.5)	16.5%	17.4%	23.2%	0.75×	5.74
São Paulo (-2.5)	5.1%	7.9%	9.2%	0.85×	12.72

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians to concede	66.6%	72.3%	79.7%	0.91×	1.38
Corinthians clean sheet	33.4%	27.7%	20.3%	1.36×	3.61

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians clean sheet in 1st half	62.4%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Corinthians to concede in 1st half	37.6%	35.3%	—	—	2.83

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians clean sheet in 2nd half	53.5%	54.5%	—	—	1.84
Corinthians to concede in 2nd half	46.5%	45.5%	—	—	2.20

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians under 6.5 corners	78.8%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Corinthians over 2.5 corners	74.5%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Corinthians under 5.5 corners	68.8%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Corinthians over 3.5 corners	59.1%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Corinthians under 4.5 corners	55.9%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Corinthians over 4.5 corners	44.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Corinthians under 3.5 corners	40.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Corinthians over 5.5 corners	31.2%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Corinthians under 2.5 corners	25.5%	28.4%	—	—	3.53
Corinthians over 6.5 corners	21.2%	24.0%	—	—	4.18

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians under 3.5 goals	98.8%	97.5%	97.9%	1.00×	1.03
Corinthians under 2.5 goals	94.1%	92.4%	90.8%	1.02×	1.08
Corinthians under 1.5 goals	78.2%	76.3%	71.9%	1.06×	1.31
Corinthians over 0.5 goals	58.3%	59.4%	65.4%	0.91×	1.68
Corinthians under 0.5 goals	41.7%	40.6%	34.6%	1.17×	2.47
Corinthians over 1.5 goals	21.8%	23.7%	28.1%	0.85×	4.21
Corinthians over 2.5 goals	5.9%	7.6%	9.2%	0.83×	13.09
Corinthians over 3.5 goals	1.2%	2.5%	2.1%	1.21×	39.91

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians under 1.5 in 1st half	95.1%	95.9%	—	—	1.04
Corinthians under 0.5 in 1st half	70.5%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Corinthians over 0.5 in 1st half	29.5%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Corinthians over 1.5 in 1st half	4.9%	4.1%	—	—	24.61

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians scores equally in both	49.7%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
Corinthians scores more in 2nd half	31.3%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Corinthians scores more in 1st half	19.0%	18.2%	—	—	5.51

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo (away no bet)	54.1%	51.7%	64.2%	0.81×	1.93
Draw (away no bet)	45.9%	48.3%	35.8%	1.35×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians even goals	58.7%	56.9%	54.9%	1.04×	1.76
Corinthians odd goals	41.3%	43.1%	45.1%	0.96×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	93.6%	91.9%	—	—	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	6.4%	8.1%	—	—	12.38

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	53.9%	51.2%	—	—	1.96
Not both halves under 1.5	46.1%	48.9%	—	—	2.05

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	39.6%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
São Paulo to score 2+ in a row	25.0%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Corinthians to score 2+ in a row	17.1%	16.1%	—	—	6.20
Either team to score 3+ in a row	10.7%	12.1%	—	—	8.26
São Paulo to score 3+ in a row	7.0%	5.5%	—	—	18.20
Corinthians to score 3+ in a row	3.8%	2.6%	—	—	38.67

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo corners (+3.5)	89.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
São Paulo corners (+2.5)	84.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
São Paulo corners (+1.5)	78.1%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Corinthians corners (+3.5)	66.1%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Corinthians corners (+2.5)	57.4%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
São Paulo corners (-1.5)	51.9%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Corinthians corners (+1.5)	48.1%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
São Paulo corners (-2.5)	42.6%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
São Paulo corners (-3.5)	33.9%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Corinthians corners (-1.5)	21.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Corinthians corners (-2.5)	15.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Corinthians corners (-3.5)	10.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	40.5%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
0-8 corners	32.6%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	26.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	76.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 8.5 corners	67.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 12.5 corners	67.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	59.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	58.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	50.9%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	49.1%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	41.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	40.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	32.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 12.5 corners	32.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	24.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-0	15.1%	13.8%	6.7%	2.07×	7.24
1-1	14.6%	11.5%	13.7%	0.84×	8.71
1-0	14.1%	11.5%	12.4%	0.93×	8.71
0-1	11.0%	11.5%	7.0%	1.64×	8.72
2-0	8.4%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.51
2-1	7.3%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.51
0-2	5.3%	7.4%	4.1%	1.79×	13.51
1-2	5.8%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.51
0-3	1.6%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.32
1-3	1.7%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.31
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
2-2	3.2%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.30
2-3	0.9%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.31
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
3-0	3.1%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.30
3-1	2.7%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.30
3-2	1.2%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.31
3-3	0.3%	1.7%	1.9%	0.90×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	10.80×	58.32
4-0	0.8%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.31
4-1	0.7%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.32
4-2	0.3%	1.7%	1.0%	1.80×	58.32
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	10.80×	58.32
Any other score	0.7%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo (2nd half DNB)	55.7%	59.2%	—	—	1.69
Corinthians (2nd half DNB)	44.3%	40.8%	—	—	2.45

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo leading at HT (DNB)	59.0%	55.7%	—	—	1.79
Corinthians leading at HT (DNB)	41.0%	44.3%	—	—	2.26

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo or draw (1X)	72.5%	72.1%	76.0%	0.95×	1.39
São Paulo or Corinthians (12)	66.7%	69.6%	72.7%	0.96×	1.44
Corinthians or draw (X2)	60.8%	63.6%	51.1%	1.25×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo or draw at HT	80.3%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
Corinthians or draw at HT	71.6%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
São Paulo or Corinthians at HT	48.1%	51.2%	—	—	1.95

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo or draw (1UP)	72.5%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Corinthians or draw (1UP)	60.8%	71.5%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo or draw in 2nd half	75.1%	75.6%	—	—	1.32
Corinthians or draw in 2nd half	68.7%	66.0%	—	—	1.51
São Paulo or Corinthians in 2nd half	56.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	71.7%	70.4%	—	—	1.42
Neither half drawn	28.3%	29.6%	—	—	3.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo (DNB)	58.7%	58.1%	67.1%	0.87×	1.72
Corinthians (DNB)	41.3%	41.9%	32.9%	1.27×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo to score first	47.2%	45.8%	—	—	2.18
Corinthians to score first	37.7%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
No goal scored	15.1%	16.5%	—	—	6.05

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	59.9%	55.0%	48.3%	1.14×	1.82
Both teams to score	40.1%	45.0%	51.7%	0.87×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	53.9%	47.3%	38.9%	1.22×	2.12
Both score & over 2.5	25.5%	33.3%	38.3%	0.87×	3.01
Both score & under 2.5	14.6%	12.4%	13.7%	0.91×	8.08
Not both score & over 2.5	6.1%	8.3%	9.5%	0.87×	12.08

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	93.5%	89.0%	87.1%	1.02×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	6.5%	11.0%	12.9%	0.85×	9.11

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	80.6%	72.0%	—	—	1.39
Both teams to score in 2nd half	19.4%	28.0%	—	—	3.57

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	71.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Both score 2nd half only	17.3%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Both score 1st half only	9.2%	6.8%	—	—	14.64
Both score in both halves	2.1%	4.8%	—	—	20.75

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	88.7%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	11.3%	14.8%	—	—	6.74

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	61.1%	59.3%	—	—	1.69
A goal in each half	38.9%	40.7%	—	—	2.46

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.1%	47.2%	49.7%	0.95×	2.12
0-1 goals	40.1%	42.2%	25.7%	1.64×	2.37
4-6 goals	13.4%	17.0%	24.3%	0.70×	5.90
7+ goals	0.4%	1.8%	0.6%	2.89×	54.52

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians to score exactly 0	41.7%	37.3%	34.6%	1.08×	2.68
Corinthians to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.9%	37.5%	0.96×	2.78
Corinthians to score exactly 2	16.0%	19.5%	19.0%	1.03×	5.12
Corinthians to score 3+	5.9%	8.5%	9.2%	0.93×	11.72

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.5%	34.3%	1.04×	2.81
São Paulo to score exactly 0	33.4%	32.6%	20.3%	1.60×	3.07
São Paulo to score exactly 2	20.1%	23.3%	27.1%	0.86×	4.30
São Paulo to score 3+	9.9%	10.4%	18.6%	0.56×	9.64

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	52.0%	48.8%	—	—	2.05
São Paulo leading at HT	28.4%	25.6%	—	—	3.91
Corinthians leading at HT	19.7%	16.1%	—	—	6.22

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo -1: 2	60.8%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
São Paulo -1: X	22.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
São Paulo -1: 1	16.5%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians (0:1)	60.8%	61.4%	51.1%	1.20×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	22.7%	24.2%	25.9%	0.94×	4.13
São Paulo (0:1)	16.5%	17.8%	23.2%	0.77×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians (0:2)	83.5%	83.0%	76.8%	1.08×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.4%	11.0%	14.1%	0.78×	9.10
São Paulo (0:2)	5.1%	7.6%	9.2%	0.83×	13.08

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians (0:3)	94.9%	92.7%	90.8%	1.02×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	3.9%	2.4%	6.7%	0.36×	41.97
São Paulo (0:3)	1.3%	2.4%	2.7%	0.88×	42.08

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians (0:4)	98.7%	98.1%	97.3%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	1.7%	0.70×	81.79
São Paulo (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	1.1%	1.10×	81.87

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo (1:0)	72.5%	72.4%	76.0%	0.95×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	17.8%	17.1%	14.6%	1.17×	5.85
Corinthians (1:0)	9.7%	6.9%	9.5%	0.73×	14.46

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo (2:0)	90.3%	94.0%	90.5%	1.04×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	7.3%	6.4%	6.2%	1.03×	15.66
Corinthians (2:0)	2.5%	2.3%	3.5%	0.65×	43.77

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	42.3%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Halves equal	32.3%	32.0%	—	—	3.13
1st half highest scoring	25.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo to concede	58.3%	60.7%	65.4%	0.93×	1.65
São Paulo clean sheet	41.7%	39.3%	34.6%	1.14×	2.54

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo clean sheet in 1st half	70.5%	66.6%	—	—	1.50
São Paulo to concede in 1st half	29.5%	33.4%	—	—	3.00

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo clean sheet in 2nd half	59.2%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
São Paulo to concede in 2nd half	40.8%	45.1%	—	—	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo over 2.5 corners	87.8%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
São Paulo over 3.5 corners	77.9%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
São Paulo over 4.5 corners	66.3%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
São Paulo under 6.5 corners	57.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
São Paulo over 5.5 corners	54.3%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
São Paulo under 5.5 corners	45.7%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
São Paulo over 6.5 corners	42.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
São Paulo under 4.5 corners	33.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
São Paulo under 3.5 corners	22.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
São Paulo under 2.5 corners	12.2%	13.8%	—	—	7.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo under 3.5 goals	97.4%	96.4%	94.3%	1.02×	1.04
São Paulo under 2.5 goals	90.1%	92.2%	81.4%	1.13×	1.09
São Paulo under 1.5 goals	70.0%	74.2%	54.4%	1.36×	1.35
São Paulo over 0.5 goals	66.6%	67.9%	79.7%	0.85×	1.47
São Paulo under 0.5 goals	33.4%	32.1%	20.3%	1.58×	3.12
São Paulo over 1.5 goals	30.0%	25.8%	45.6%	0.57×	3.88
São Paulo over 2.5 goals	9.9%	7.8%	18.6%	0.42×	12.81
São Paulo over 3.5 goals	2.6%	3.6%	5.7%	0.63×	27.57

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo under 1.5 in 1st half	91.8%	94.7%	—	—	1.06
São Paulo under 0.5 in 1st half	62.4%	64.4%	—	—	1.55
São Paulo over 0.5 in 1st half	37.6%	35.6%	—	—	2.81
São Paulo over 1.5 in 1st half	8.2%	5.3%	—	—	18.88

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo scores equally in both	44.0%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
São Paulo scores more in 2nd half	33.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
São Paulo scores more in 1st half	23.0%	21.1%	—	—	4.75

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	54.7%	51.5%	53.3%	0.97×	1.94
Corinthians (home no bet)	45.3%	48.5%	46.7%	1.04×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo even goals	55.6%	55.3%	51.6%	1.07×	1.81
São Paulo odd goals	44.4%	44.7%	48.4%	0.92×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	44.2%	40.3%	—	—	2.48
HT 1-0	20.5%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	15.2%	18.5%	—	—	5.40
HT 1-1	7.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.54
HT 2-0	4.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.08
HT 0-2	2.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.23
HT 2-1	1.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.29
Any other HT score	1.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.29
HT 1-2	1.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.32
HT 2-2	0.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.38

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	24.0%	21.6%	—	—	4.62
São Paulo at HT / São Paulo at FT	22.0%	21.6%	—	—	4.64
Draw at HT / São Paulo at FT	15.7%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Corinthians at HT / Corinthians at FT	13.9%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Corinthians at FT	12.3%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
São Paulo at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
Corinthians at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.86
São Paulo at HT / Corinthians at FT	1.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.97
Corinthians at HT / São Paulo at FT	1.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.97

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo to score last	47.3%	46.3%	—	—	2.16
Corinthians to score last	37.6%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
No goal scored	15.1%	12.6%	—	—	7.96

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	84.9%	88.1%	—	—	1.14
São Paulo to lead by 1 at any time	52.0%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Corinthians to lead by 1 at any time	41.3%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	33.3%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
São Paulo to lead by 2 at any time	20.4%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Corinthians to lead by 2 at any time	13.0%	10.6%	—	—	9.42
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	9.2%	6.7%	—	—	14.96
São Paulo to lead by 3 at any time	6.1%	6.6%	—	—	15.10
Corinthians to lead by 3 at any time	3.1%	1.6%	—	—	62.21

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo most corners	61.4%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
Corinthians most corners	29.7%	31.1%	—	—	3.21
Corners level	8.9%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	83.3%	83.4%	88.7%	0.94×	1.20
1-4 goals	79.9%	78.7%	81.7%	0.96×	1.27
1-3 goals	71.1%	72.3%	68.7%	1.05×	1.38
2-6 goals	59.4%	59.1%	73.8%	0.80×	1.69
2-5 goals	58.3%	59.1%	69.7%	0.85×	1.69
2-4 goals	54.8%	53.2%	62.7%	0.85×	1.88
1-2 goals	53.3%	53.2%	45.9%	1.16×	1.88
2-3 goals	46.1%	48.4%	49.7%	0.98×	2.06
3-6 goals	31.2%	35.2%	47.1%	0.75×	2.84
3-5 goals	30.0%	35.2%	43.0%	0.82×	2.84
3-4 goals	26.6%	30.2%	36.0%	0.84×	3.31
4-6 goals	13.4%	14.8%	24.3%	0.61×	6.75
4-5 goals	12.2%	14.8%	20.2%	0.73×	6.76
5-6 goals	4.6%	2.6%	11.3%	0.23×	39.06
7+ goals	0.4%	2.5%	0.6%	4.01×	39.25

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo never behind	43.5%	48.8%	—	—	2.05
Corinthians never behind	32.9%	36.3%	—	—	2.75

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.6%	50.9%	49.2%	1.03×	1.97
Even number of goals	53.4%	49.1%	50.8%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	60.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	39.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	55.8%	59.0%	—	—	1.69
Odd goals in 2nd half	44.2%	41.0%	—	—	2.44

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	98.4%	95.4%	95.2%	1.00×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	95.0%	92.3%	88.3%	1.05×	1.08
Under 3.5 goals	86.2%	87.6%	75.2%	1.16×	1.14
Over 0.5 goals	84.9%	82.3%	93.3%	0.88×	1.22
Under 2.5 goals	68.4%	66.3%	52.4%	1.27×	1.51
Over 1.5 goals	59.9%	58.7%	74.3%	0.79×	1.71
Under 1.5 goals	40.1%	41.3%	25.7%	1.61×	2.42
Over 2.5 goals	31.6%	33.7%	47.6%	0.71×	2.97
Under 0.5 goals	15.1%	17.7%	6.7%	2.65×	5.65
Over 3.5 goals	13.8%	12.4%	24.8%	0.50×	8.06
Over 4.5 goals	5.0%	7.7%	11.7%	0.66×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	1.6%	4.6%	4.8%	0.96×	21.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.6%	97.2%	99.3%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	98.4%	97.2%	94.9%	1.02×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	94.5%	92.4%	86.5%	1.07×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	83.2%	81.1%	67.9%	1.19×	1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	56.0%	55.8%	35.1%	1.59×	1.79
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	44.0%	44.2%	64.9%	0.68×	2.26
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	16.8%	18.9%	32.1%	0.59×	5.29
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	5.5%	7.6%	13.5%	0.56×	13.20
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	1.6%	2.8%	5.1%	0.55×	35.63
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.4%	2.8%	0.7%	4.23×	35.67

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	94.9%	93.0%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	79.9%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half	55.8%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Under 0.5 in 1st half	44.2%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
Over 1.5 in 1st half	20.1%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Over 2.5 in 1st half	5.1%	7.0%	—	—	14.24

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	89.0%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	67.9%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	67.7%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	32.3%	31.5%	—	—	3.17
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	32.1%	31.5%	—	—	3.18
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	11.0%	14.6%	—	—	6.85

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians not to score in both halves	87.9%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
São Paulo not to score in both halves	82.5%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
São Paulo to score in both halves	17.5%	15.7%	—	—	6.37
Corinthians to score in both halves	12.1%	14.4%	—	—	6.97

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	40.1%	46.5%	51.7%	0.90×	2.15
Only São Paulo scores	26.6%	26.1%	28.1%	0.93×	3.84
Only Corinthians scores	18.3%	16.0%	13.8%	1.16×	6.23
Neither team scores	15.1%	16.0%	6.7%	2.40×	6.24

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	28.3%	24.9%	26.8%	0.93×	4.02
Exactly 1 goals	25.0%	24.9%	19.2%	1.29×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	17.8%	17.5%	23.0%	0.76×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	15.1%	17.4%	6.7%	2.62×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	8.8%	7.6%	13.2%	0.58×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	3.5%	4.5%	7.1%	0.63×	22.35
6 or more goals	1.6%	4.5%	4.8%	0.94×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	44.2%	40.3%	—	—	2.48
1 goal in 1st half	35.7%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
2 goals in 1st half	15.1%	15.7%	—	—	6.39
3+ goals in 1st half	5.1%	7.0%	—	—	14.24

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	35.6%	39.5%	—	—	2.53
2+ goals in 2nd half	32.3%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	32.1%	33.9%	—	—	2.95

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians not to win both halves	95.0%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
São Paulo not to win both halves	90.9%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
São Paulo to win both halves	9.1%	5.9%	—	—	17.00
Corinthians to win both halves	5.0%	5.8%	—	—	17.30

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians to win neither half	60.5%	64.9%	—	—	1.54
São Paulo to win either half	50.6%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
São Paulo to win neither half	49.4%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Corinthians to win either half	39.5%	35.1%	—	—	2.85

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians not to win to nil	81.7%	83.1%	86.2%	0.96×	1.20
São Paulo not to win to nil	73.4%	75.3%	71.9%	1.05×	1.33
São Paulo to win to nil	26.6%	24.7%	28.1%	0.88×	4.05
Corinthians to win to nil	18.3%	16.9%	13.8%	1.23×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	33.3%	27.7%	27.3%	1.02×	3.61
São Paulo by 1	22.7%	24.1%	25.9%	0.93×	4.15
Corinthians by 1	17.8%	17.0%	14.6%	1.17×	5.87
São Paulo by 2	11.4%	11.8%	14.1%	0.83×	8.51
Corinthians by 2	7.3%	7.2%	6.2%	1.16×	13.91
São Paulo by 3+	5.1%	7.2%	9.2%	0.78×	13.92
Corinthians by 3+	2.5%	2.7%	3.5%	0.78×	36.90