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São Paulo v Remo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 28 November 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627

Brasileirão results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
São Paulo win
51.1%
model 51.3%
Draw
26.7%
model 26.3%
Remo win
22.2%
model 22.5%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.5%
  2. 1-0 10.0%
  3. 2-1 9.7%
  4. 2-0 9.3%
  5. 0-0 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.551.3% Under 2.548.7%
BTTS yes53.8% BTTS no46.2%
São Paulo 1+81.4% São Paulo 2+50.1%
Remo 1+64.8% Remo 2+28.1%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.05. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Remo under 6.5 corners
Away corners O/U
81.4% fair odds 1.23
moderate signal · 10339 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
São Paulo not to win both halves
Win both halves
83.4% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 588 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out São Paulo.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

São Paulo have an estimated 51.1% win probability, against 26.7% for the draw and 22.2% for Remo. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.68 for São Paulo and 1.04 for Remo.

Why São Paulo

Nothing in the data singles out São Paulo.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.7%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Remo can win

Nothing in the data singles out Remo.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for São Paulo, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Remo, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

São Paulo: 56% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Remo: 47% possession, 15.2 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

São Paulo are the model's most likely outcome at 51.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.5%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.68–1.05 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.68–1.01 1-1 13% 50% 53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo to win 52.0% 51.5% 48.9% 1.05× 1.94
Draw 26.4% 27.9% 27.3% 1.02× 3.58
Remo to win 21.6% 24.5% 24.0% 1.02× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo & not both score 28.7% 25.2% 28.1% 0.90× 3.97
São Paulo & both teams score 23.3% 21.8% 21.0% 1.04× 4.58
Draw & both teams score 18.5% 18.0% 20.8% 0.86× 5.56
Remo & both teams score 10.8% 13.3% 10.3% 1.29× 7.54
Remo & not both score 10.8% 13.3% 13.8% 0.96× 7.54
Draw & not both score 7.9% 8.3% 6.7% 1.25× 12.01
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo & over 1.5 41.6% 40.2% 36.7% 1.10× 2.49
São Paulo & under 3.5 35.1% 34.9% 36.8% 0.95× 2.87
São Paulo & over 2.5 32.0% 30.7% 27.5% 1.12× 3.25
São Paulo & under 2.5 20.1% 21.6% 21.6% 1.00× 4.63
Draw & under 2.5 20.5% 21.6% 20.2% 1.07× 4.63
Draw & under 3.5 20.5% 21.6% 20.2% 1.07× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 18.5% 18.0% 20.8% 0.87× 5.56
São Paulo & over 3.5 16.9% 18.0% 12.2% 1.47× 5.56
Remo & over 1.5 15.8% 18.0% 17.1% 1.05× 5.56
Remo & under 3.5 16.3% 18.0% 18.6% 0.97× 5.56
Remo & over 2.5 12.3% 12.8% 13.2% 0.97× 7.79
São Paulo & under 1.5 10.4% 12.8% 12.4% 1.04× 7.79
Remo & under 2.5 9.3% 7.9% 11.0% 0.72× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 7.9% 7.9% 6.7% 1.19× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 5.9% 7.9% 7.3% 1.08× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 5.9% 7.9% 7.3% 1.08× 12.63
Remo & under 1.5 5.8% 7.9% 7.0% 1.13× 12.63
Remo & over 3.5 5.4% 7.9% 5.6% 1.43× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo (1UP) 66.0% 70.0% — — 1.43
Remo (1UP) 39.4% 34.3% — — 2.92
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo (2UP) 52.0% 55.0% — — 1.82
Remo (2UP) 21.6% 23.6% — — 4.24
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo to win 2nd half 42.2% 41.8% — — 2.39
2nd half drawn 35.8% 36.2% — — 2.77
Remo to win 2nd half 22.0% 24.1% — — 4.15
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo under 1.5 in 2nd half 87.7% 86.8% — — 1.15
Remo under 0.5 in 2nd half 54.7% 52.8% — — 1.90
Remo over 0.5 in 2nd half 45.3% 47.2% — — 2.12
Remo over 1.5 in 2nd half 12.3% 13.2% — — 7.59
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo under 1.5 in 2nd half 75.2% 75.0% — — 1.33
São Paulo over 0.5 in 2nd half 61.5% 62.8% — — 1.59
São Paulo under 0.5 in 2nd half 38.5% 37.2% — — 2.69
São Paulo over 1.5 in 2nd half 24.8% 25.0% — — 4.00
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo (+2.5) 87.5% 88.5% 90.8% 0.97× 1.13
São Paulo (+0.5) 78.4% 78.5% 76.0% 1.03× 1.27
Remo (+1.5) 71.2% 73.6% 76.8% 0.96× 1.36
São Paulo (-0.5) 52.0% 52.4% 48.9% 1.07× 1.91
Remo (+0.5) 48.0% 47.6% 51.1% 0.93× 2.10
São Paulo (-1.5) 28.8% 26.4% 23.2% 1.14× 3.79
Remo (-0.5) 21.6% 21.5% 24.0% 0.90× 4.65
São Paulo (-2.5) 12.5% 11.5% 9.2% 1.25× 8.67
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo to concede 81.3% 81.5% 79.7% 1.02× 1.23
Remo clean sheet 18.7% 18.5% 20.3% 0.91× 5.41
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo to concede in 1st half 51.3% 50.5% — — 1.98
Remo clean sheet in 1st half 48.7% 49.5% — — 2.02
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo to concede in 2nd half 61.5% 61.3% — — 1.63
Remo clean sheet in 2nd half 38.5% 38.7% — — 2.58
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo under 6.5 corners 80.8% 81.4% — — 1.23
Remo over 2.5 corners 72.7% 71.6% — — 1.40
Remo under 5.5 corners 71.1% 71.6% — — 1.40
Remo under 4.5 corners 58.4% 57.2% — — 1.75
Remo over 3.5 corners 56.7% 57.2% — — 1.75
Remo under 3.5 corners 43.3% 42.8% — — 2.33
Remo over 4.5 corners 41.6% 42.8% — — 2.33
Remo over 5.5 corners 28.9% 28.4% — — 3.52
Remo under 2.5 corners 27.3% 28.4% — — 3.52
Remo over 6.5 corners 19.2% 18.6% — — 5.37
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo under 3.5 goals 98.1% 97.5% 97.9% 1.00× 1.03
Remo under 2.5 goals 91.9% 92.3% 90.8% 1.02× 1.08
Remo under 1.5 goals 73.4% 71.8% 71.9% 1.00× 1.39
Remo over 0.5 goals 63.4% 63.2% 65.4% 0.97× 1.58
Remo under 0.5 goals 36.6% 36.8% 34.6% 1.06× 2.72
Remo over 1.5 goals 26.6% 28.2% 28.1% 1.00× 3.55
Remo over 2.5 goals 8.1% 7.7% 9.2% 0.83× 13.05
Remo over 3.5 goals 1.9% 2.5% 2.1% 1.21× 39.97
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo under 1.5 in 1st half 93.8% 93.8% — — 1.07
Remo under 0.5 in 1st half 66.9% 69.9% — — 1.43
Remo over 0.5 in 1st half 33.1% 30.1% — — 3.32
Remo over 1.5 in 1st half 6.2% 6.2% — — 16.25
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo scores equally in both 46.0% 48.1% — — 2.08
Remo scores more in 2nd half 33.7% 33.3% — — 3.01
Remo scores more in 1st half 20.2% 21.8% — — 4.60
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo (away no bet) 66.4% 66.3% 64.2% 1.03× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 33.6% 33.7% 35.8% 0.94× 2.97
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo even goals 56.7% 56.9% 54.9% 1.04× 1.76
Remo odd goals 43.3% 43.1% 45.1% 0.96× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 85.7% 87.8% — — 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 14.3% 12.2% — — 8.17
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 63.3% 57.6% — — 1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals 36.7% 42.4% — — 2.36
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 55.9% 55.0% — — 1.82
São Paulo to score 2+ in a row 42.4% 38.7% — — 2.59
Either team to score 3+ in a row 20.8% 19.6% — — 5.11
Remo to score 2+ in a row 18.9% 16.2% — — 6.16
São Paulo to score 3+ in a row 16.7% 16.2% — — 6.17
Remo to score 3+ in a row 4.3% 2.6% — — 38.23
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo corners (+3.5) 93.6% 89.6% — — 1.12
São Paulo corners (+2.5) 90.3% 89.6% — — 1.12
São Paulo corners (+1.5) 85.7% 84.5% — — 1.18
São Paulo corners (-1.5) 65.1% 65.9% — — 1.52
São Paulo corners (-2.5) 56.6% 57.1% — — 1.75
Remo corners (+3.5) 51.9% 52.4% — — 1.91
São Paulo corners (-3.5) 48.1% 47.6% — — 2.10
Remo corners (+2.5) 43.4% 42.9% — — 2.33
Remo corners (+1.5) 34.9% 34.1% — — 2.93
Remo corners (-1.5) 14.3% 15.5% — — 6.45
Remo corners (-2.5) 9.7% 10.4% — — 9.59
Remo corners (-3.5) 6.4% 10.4% — — 9.60
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 51.7% 45.2% — — 2.21
9-11 corners 24.3% 25.7% — — 3.90
0-8 corners 24.0% 25.7% — — 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 83.0% 80.7% — — 1.24
Over 8.5 corners 76.0% 76.6% — — 1.31
Over 9.5 corners 68.2% 67.8% — — 1.47
Over 10.5 corners 60.0% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 12.5 corners 56.4% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 11.5 corners 51.7% 53.1% — — 1.88
Under 11.5 corners 48.3% 46.9% — — 2.13
Over 12.5 corners 43.6% 42.1% — — 2.38
Under 10.5 corners 40.0% 42.1% — — 2.38
Under 9.5 corners 31.8% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 8.5 corners 24.0% 23.4% — — 4.27
Under 7.5 corners 17.0% 19.3% — — 5.17
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.6% 11.5% 13.7% 0.84× 8.72
1-0 10.4% 11.5% 12.4% 0.93× 8.72
2-0 9.6% 7.4% 9.4% 0.79× 13.51
2-1 9.7% 7.4% 10.8% 0.69× 13.51
0-0 7.9% 7.4% 6.7% 1.11× 13.51
0-1 5.8% 7.4% 7.0% 1.06× 13.51
1-2 5.8% 7.4% 6.2% 1.20× 13.51
3-0 5.4% 7.4% 4.8% 1.55× 13.51
3-1 5.4% 7.4% 4.0% 1.87× 13.51
2-2 4.9% 1.7% 5.6% 0.31× 58.29
0-2 3.5% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.30
0-3 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 0.98× 58.31
0-4 0.3% 1.7% 1.1% 1.54× 58.32
1-3 1.9% 1.7% 2.1% 0.83× 58.31
1-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.3% 5.40× 58.32
2-3 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 0.98× 58.31
2-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 5.40× 58.32
3-2 2.7% 1.7% 2.9% 0.60× 58.30
3-3 0.9% 1.7% 1.9% 0.90× 58.31
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 10.80× 58.32
4-0 2.2% 1.7% 1.1% 1.54× 58.31
4-1 2.3% 1.7% 2.1% 0.83× 58.31
4-2 1.1% 1.7% 1.0% 1.80× 58.31
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 5.40× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 10.80× 58.32
Any other score 3.2% 1.7% 2.5% 0.68× 58.30
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo (2nd half DNB) 65.7% 66.5% — — 1.50
Remo (2nd half DNB) 34.3% 33.5% — — 2.99
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo leading at HT (DNB) 68.0% 74.3% — — 1.35
Remo leading at HT (DNB) 32.0% 25.7% — — 3.89
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo or draw (1X) 78.4% 75.5% 76.0% 0.99× 1.32
São Paulo or Remo (12) 73.6% 72.1% 72.7% 0.99× 1.39
Remo or draw (X2) 48.0% 48.5% 51.1% 0.95× 2.06
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo or draw at HT 81.8% 83.9% — — 1.19
Remo or draw at HT 61.3% 60.9% — — 1.64
São Paulo or Remo at HT 57.0% 57.7% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo or draw (1UP) 78.4% 83.8% — — 1.19
Remo or draw (1UP) 48.0% 53.4% — — 1.87
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo or draw in 2nd half 78.0% 75.9% — — 1.32
São Paulo or Remo in 2nd half 64.2% 63.8% — — 1.57
Remo or draw in 2nd half 57.8% 58.2% — — 1.72
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 62.3% 61.3% — — 1.63
Neither half drawn 37.7% 38.7% — — 2.59
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo (DNB) 70.6% 71.3% 67.1% 1.06× 1.40
Remo (DNB) 29.4% 28.7% 32.9% 0.87× 3.49
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo to score first 57.6% 62.2% — — 1.61
Remo to score first 34.5% 27.9% — — 3.58
No goal scored 7.9% 7.5% — — 13.42
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 52.6% 51.3% 51.7% 0.99× 1.95
Not both teams to score 47.4% 48.7% 48.3% 1.01× 2.05
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 40.0% 38.5% 38.3% 1.01× 2.60
Not both score & under 2.5 37.3% 38.4% 38.9% 0.99× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 12.6% 12.4% 13.7% 0.91× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 10.2% 12.4% 9.5% 1.30× 8.09
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 86.7% 85.6% 87.1% 0.98× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 13.3% 14.4% 12.9% 1.12× 6.95
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 71.8% 73.6% — — 1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half 28.2% 26.4% — — 3.79
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 59.3% 60.0% — — 1.67
Both score 2nd half only 23.5% 21.0% — — 4.76
Both score 1st half only 12.4% 10.8% — — 9.28
Both score in both halves 4.7% 5.0% — — 20.13
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 82.8% 83.1% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 17.2% 16.9% — — 5.93
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 53.8% 53.0% — — 1.89
A half without a goal 46.3% 47.0% — — 2.13
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.7% 47.2% 49.7% 0.95× 2.12
4-6 goals 26.2% 26.6% 24.3% 1.10× 3.76
0-1 goals 24.2% 22.9% 25.7% 0.89× 4.36
7+ goals 2.0% 1.8% 0.6% 2.90× 54.33
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo to score exactly 0 36.6% 35.9% 34.6% 1.04× 2.78
Remo to score exactly 1 36.8% 35.9% 37.5% 0.96× 2.78
Remo to score exactly 2 18.5% 19.6% 19.0% 1.03× 5.11
Remo to score 3+ 8.1% 8.6% 9.2% 0.93× 11.69
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo to score exactly 1 31.4% 32.6% 34.3% 0.95× 3.07
São Paulo to score exactly 2 26.3% 26.5% 27.1% 0.98× 3.77
São Paulo to score 3+ 23.6% 23.3% 18.6% 1.26× 4.29
São Paulo to score exactly 0 18.7% 18.8% 20.3% 0.92× 5.33
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 43.0% 42.3% — — 2.36
São Paulo leading at HT 38.7% 39.1% — — 2.56
Remo leading at HT 18.2% 16.1% — — 6.22
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo -1: 2 48.0% 46.9% — — 2.13
São Paulo -1: 1 28.8% 26.5% — — 3.77
São Paulo -1: X 23.2% 23.5% — — 4.25
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo (0:1) 48.0% 46.2% 51.1% 0.90× 2.17
São Paulo (0:1) 28.8% 27.0% 23.2% 1.17× 3.70
Draw (0:1) 23.2% 24.2% 25.9% 0.94× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo (0:2) 71.2% 75.6% 76.8% 0.98× 1.32
Draw (0:2) 16.3% 15.3% 14.1% 1.08× 6.56
São Paulo (0:2) 12.5% 11.0% 9.2% 1.19× 9.10
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo (0:3) 87.5% 90.6% 90.8% 1.00× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 8.0% 5.8% 6.7% 0.87× 17.22
São Paulo (0:3) 4.5% 2.4% 2.7% 0.88× 42.03
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo (0:4) 95.6% 98.1% 97.3% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 3.1% 1.2% 1.7% 0.70× 81.82
São Paulo (0:4) 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.10× 82.02
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo (1:0) 78.4% 78.6% 76.0% 1.03× 1.27
Draw (1:0) 13.5% 12.7% 14.6% 0.87× 7.87
Remo (1:0) 8.1% 6.9% 9.5% 0.73× 14.47
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo (2:0) 91.9% 94.0% 90.5% 1.04× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 5.9% 6.4% 6.2% 1.03× 15.69
Remo (2:0) 2.2% 2.3% 3.5% 0.65× 43.75
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 46.5% 48.7% — — 2.05
Halves equal 26.8% 26.2% — — 3.82
1st half highest scoring 26.7% 26.2% — — 3.82
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo to concede 63.4% 63.7% 65.4% 0.97× 1.57
São Paulo clean sheet 36.6% 36.3% 34.6% 1.05× 2.75
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo clean sheet in 1st half 66.9% 70.2% — — 1.42
São Paulo to concede in 1st half 33.1% 29.8% — — 3.36
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo clean sheet in 2nd half 54.7% 52.9% — — 1.89
São Paulo to concede in 2nd half 45.3% 47.1% — — 2.12
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo over 2.5 corners 93.1% 89.2% — — 1.12
São Paulo over 3.5 corners 86.6% 86.2% — — 1.16
São Paulo over 4.5 corners 78.1% 76.5% — — 1.31
São Paulo over 5.5 corners 68.4% 66.7% — — 1.50
São Paulo over 6.5 corners 58.2% 57.5% — — 1.74
São Paulo under 6.5 corners 41.8% 42.5% — — 2.35
São Paulo under 5.5 corners 31.6% 33.3% — — 3.01
São Paulo under 4.5 corners 21.9% 23.5% — — 4.26
São Paulo under 3.5 corners 13.4% 13.8% — — 7.27
São Paulo under 2.5 corners 6.9% 10.8% — — 9.30
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo under 3.5 goals 91.1% 92.2% 94.3% 0.98× 1.08
São Paulo over 0.5 goals 81.3% 82.2% 79.7% 1.03× 1.22
São Paulo under 2.5 goals 76.4% 77.7% 81.4% 0.95× 1.29
São Paulo under 1.5 goals 50.1% 53.2% 54.4% 0.98× 1.88
São Paulo over 1.5 goals 49.9% 46.8% 45.6% 1.03× 2.14
São Paulo over 2.5 goals 23.6% 22.3% 18.6% 1.20× 4.49
São Paulo under 0.5 goals 18.7% 17.8% 20.3% 0.88× 5.62
São Paulo over 3.5 goals 8.9% 7.8% 5.7% 1.36× 12.85
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo under 1.5 in 1st half 83.7% 83.9% — — 1.19
São Paulo over 0.5 in 1st half 51.3% 50.3% — — 1.99
São Paulo under 0.5 in 1st half 48.7% 49.7% — — 2.01
São Paulo over 1.5 in 1st half 16.3% 16.1% — — 6.20
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo scores more in 2nd half 39.6% 37.9% — — 2.64
São Paulo scores equally in both 34.0% 33.2% — — 3.01
São Paulo scores more in 1st half 26.4% 27.8% — — 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 55.0% 51.4% 53.3% 0.97× 1.94
Remo (home no bet) 45.0% 48.6% 46.7% 1.04× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo even goals 51.8% 50.7% 51.6% 0.98× 1.97
São Paulo odd goals 48.2% 49.3% 48.4% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 32.7% 33.2% — — 3.01
HT 1-0 23.3% 24.3% — — 4.11
HT 0-1 12.9% 11.0% — — 9.10
HT 1-1 9.6% 6.9% — — 14.43
HT 2-0 8.4% 6.9% — — 14.44
Any other HT score 4.4% 2.4% — — 41.92
HT 2-1 3.4% 2.4% — — 41.99
HT 0-2 2.6% 2.4% — — 42.04
HT 1-2 1.9% 2.4% — — 42.08
HT 2-2 0.7% 2.4% — — 42.16
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo at HT / São Paulo at FT 31.9% 32.3% — — 3.10
Draw at HT / São Paulo at FT 17.6% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 16.6% 16.8% — — 5.96
Remo at HT / Remo at FT 11.1% 12.6% — — 7.92
Draw at HT / Remo at FT 8.9% 6.1% — — 16.39
São Paulo at HT / Draw at FT 5.2% 6.1% — — 16.50
Remo at HT / Draw at FT 4.6% 3.5% — — 28.80
Remo at HT / São Paulo at FT 2.6% 3.5% — — 28.88
São Paulo at HT / Remo at FT 1.6% 3.5% — — 28.91
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo to score last 57.7% 56.4% — — 1.77
Remo to score last 34.4% 32.6% — — 3.07
No goal scored 7.9% 7.5% — — 13.42
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 92.1% 92.7% — — 1.08
São Paulo to lead by 1 at any time 66.0% 69.4% — — 1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 47.4% 44.4% — — 2.25
Remo to lead by 1 at any time 39.4% 34.8% — — 2.88
São Paulo to lead by 2 at any time 35.0% 29.9% — — 3.35
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 18.0% 14.9% — — 6.71
São Paulo to lead by 3 at any time 14.8% 10.6% — — 9.47
Remo to lead by 2 at any time 12.6% 10.5% — — 9.51
Remo to lead by 3 at any time 3.2% 1.6% — — 61.85
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo most corners 73.0% 70.6% — — 1.42
Remo most corners 20.0% 25.8% — — 3.87
Corners level 7.0% 8.3% — — 12.00
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.6% 87.4% 88.7% 0.99× 1.14
1-4 goals 78.7% 78.7% 81.7% 0.96× 1.27
2-6 goals 73.8% 72.4% 73.8% 0.98× 1.38
2-5 goals 70.3% 72.3% 69.7% 1.04× 1.38
1-3 goals 63.9% 63.3% 68.7% 0.92× 1.58
2-4 goals 62.4% 63.3% 62.7% 1.01× 1.58
3-6 goals 48.2% 48.5% 47.1% 1.03× 2.06
2-3 goals 47.7% 48.5% 49.7% 0.98× 2.06
3-5 goals 44.6% 43.6% 43.0% 1.01× 2.29
1-2 goals 42.0% 43.6% 45.9% 0.95× 2.29
3-4 goals 36.7% 39.2% 36.0% 1.09× 2.55
4-6 goals 26.2% 30.2% 24.3% 1.24× 3.31
4-5 goals 22.6% 24.5% 20.2% 1.21× 4.09
5-6 goals 11.4% 14.8% 11.3% 1.31× 6.76
7+ goals 2.0% 2.6% 0.6% 4.02× 39.17
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo never behind 52.7% 62.3% — — 1.60
Remo never behind 26.1% 29.9% — — 3.34
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.7% 50.9% 49.2% 1.03× 1.96
Even number of goals 52.3% 49.1% 50.8% 0.97× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.7% 57.6% — — 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 44.3% 42.4% — — 2.36
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.9% 51.9% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.1% 48.1% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 94.5% 92.3% 95.2% 0.97× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 92.1% 92.3% 93.3% 0.99× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 86.6% 87.6% 88.3% 0.99× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 75.8% 77.3% 74.3% 1.04× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 71.9% 72.5% 75.2% 0.96× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 50.1% 52.5% 47.6% 1.10× 1.90
Under 2.5 goals 49.9% 47.5% 52.4% 0.91× 2.11
Over 3.5 goals 28.1% 27.5% 24.8% 1.11× 3.63
Under 1.5 goals 24.2% 22.7% 25.7% 0.88× 4.40
Over 4.5 goals 13.4% 12.4% 11.7% 1.06× 8.06
Under 0.5 goals 7.9% 7.7% 6.7% 1.16× 12.94
Over 5.5 goals 5.5% 7.7% 4.8% 1.62× 12.96
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.0% 97.2% 99.3% 0.98× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 94.0% 92.4% 94.9% 0.97× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 84.3% 81.1% 86.5% 0.94× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 67.5% 67.5% 64.9% 1.04× 1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 63.9% 61.9% 67.9% 0.91× 1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 36.1% 38.1% 32.1% 1.19× 2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 32.5% 32.5% 35.1% 0.93× 3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 15.7% 18.9% 13.5% 1.40× 5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 6.0% 7.6% 5.1% 1.48× 13.18
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.1% 2.8% 0.7% 4.24× 35.61
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 89.6% 89.1% — — 1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half 68.9% 68.6% — — 1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half 67.3% 68.5% — — 1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half 32.7% 31.5% — — 3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half 31.1% 31.4% — — 3.18
Over 2.5 in 1st half 10.4% 10.9% — — 9.16
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 79.4% 79.7% — — 1.25
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 78.6% 79.7% — — 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 53.5% 53.3% — — 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 46.5% 46.7% — — 2.14
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 21.4% 20.3% — — 4.93
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 20.6% 20.3% — — 4.94
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo not to score in both halves 85.0% 85.4% — — 1.17
São Paulo not to score in both halves 68.4% 70.1% — — 1.43
São Paulo to score in both halves 31.6% 29.9% — — 3.35
Remo to score in both halves 15.0% 14.6% — — 6.83
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 52.6% 53.8% 51.7% 1.04× 1.86
Only São Paulo scores 28.7% 26.0% 28.1% 0.93× 3.84
Only Remo scores 10.8% 11.0% 13.8% 0.80× 9.07
Neither team scores 7.9% 7.1% 6.7% 1.07× 14.03
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 25.7% 24.9% 26.8% 0.93× 4.02
Exactly 3 goals 22.0% 22.6% 23.0% 0.98× 4.43
Exactly 1 goals 16.3% 17.5% 19.2% 0.91× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 14.7% 12.1% 13.2% 0.92× 8.25
Exactly 0 goals 7.9% 7.6% 6.7% 1.14× 13.14
Exactly 5 goals 7.9% 7.6% 7.1% 1.07× 13.14
6 or more goals 5.5% 7.6% 4.8% 1.60× 13.15
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.2% 37.3% — — 2.68
No goals in 1st half 32.7% 35.7% — — 2.80
2 goals in 1st half 20.7% 21.4% — — 4.66
3+ goals in 1st half 10.4% 10.8% — — 9.25
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 46.5% 44.7% — — 2.24
1 goal in 2nd half 32.1% 33.7% — — 2.97
No goals in 2nd half 21.4% 22.6% — — 4.43
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo not to win both halves 95.9% 97.2% — — 1.03
São Paulo not to win both halves 83.4% 83.9% — — 1.19
São Paulo to win both halves 16.6% 16.1% — — 6.19
Remo to win both halves 4.1% 2.8% — — 35.32
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
São Paulo to win either half 64.4% 65.0% — — 1.54
Remo to win neither half 63.9% 65.0% — — 1.54
Remo to win either half 36.1% 35.0% — — 2.86
São Paulo to win neither half 35.6% 35.0% — — 2.86
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo not to win to nil 89.2% 88.1% 86.2% 1.02× 1.14
São Paulo not to win to nil 71.3% 75.3% 71.9% 1.05× 1.33
São Paulo to win to nil 28.7% 24.7% 28.1% 0.88× 4.05
Remo to win to nil 10.8% 11.9% 13.8% 0.86× 8.43
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 26.4% 27.9% 27.3% 1.02× 3.59
São Paulo by 1 23.2% 24.1% 25.9% 0.93× 4.15
São Paulo by 2 16.3% 17.0% 14.1% 1.21× 5.87
Remo by 1 13.5% 11.8% 14.6% 0.80× 8.51
São Paulo by 3+ 12.5% 11.8% 9.2% 1.28× 8.51
Remo by 2 5.9% 7.2% 6.2% 1.16× 13.91
Remo by 3+ 2.2% 2.7% 3.5% 0.78× 36.86
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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