São Paulo v Vitória — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 11 October 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,060 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-0 13.6%
- 1-1 13.3%
- 0-0 11.2%
- 2-0 11.1%
- 2-1 9.0%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 40.6% | Under 2.5 | 59.4% |
| BTTS yes | 44.4% | BTTS no | 55.6% |
| São Paulo 1+ | 77.6% | São Paulo 2+ | 44.0% |
| Vitória 1+ | 55.7% | Vitória 2+ | 19.6% |
Expected goals 1.49 – 0.81. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out São Paulo.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
São Paulo have an estimated 53.6% win probability, against 27.6% for the draw and 18.8% for Vitória. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.49 for São Paulo and 0.81 for Vitória.
Why São Paulo
Nothing in the data singles out São Paulo.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 27.6%. A combined 2.31 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 27% in this competition.
Why Vitória can win
Nothing in the data singles out Vitória.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for São Paulo, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Vitória, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
São Paulo: 56% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Vitória: 40% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 19.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. São Paulo's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
São Paulo are the model's most likely outcome at 53.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 13.6%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.34–0.74 | 1-0 16% | 35% | 40% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.