Sarmiento (Junín) v River Plate — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 4 October 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

Sarmiento (Junín)

17:45 UTC

River Plate

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 634h before kick-off

Sarmiento (Junín) win

29.0%

model 33.4%

Draw

27.5%

model 26.4%

River Plate win

43.5%

model 40.2%

292744

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (555 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.6%
0-1 9.0%
1-2 8.7%
1-0 8.0%
2-1 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	51.3%	Under 2.5	48.7%
BTTS yes	55.7%	BTTS no	44.3%
Sarmiento (Junín) 1+	72.4%	Sarmiento (Junín) 2+	36.9%
River Plate 1+	76.2%	River Plate 2+	42.1%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.44. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

22/100

Data quality

55/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Over 2.5 goals

Over/Under · usually 34%

53.5% fair odds 1.87

strong signal · 1225 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Sarmiento (Junín) (2:0)

Handicap 2:0 · usually 91%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 379 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

River Plate carry the stronger rating, 1565 Elo against 1493.

Risk factors

Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0033 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.

Why the model thinks this

The price

River Plate have an estimated 43.5% win probability, against 29.0% for Sarmiento (Junín) and 27.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.29 for Sarmiento (Junín) and 1.44 for River Plate.

Why Sarmiento (Junín)

Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.5%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.29 to 1.44. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why River Plate can win

River Plate carry the stronger rating, 1565 Elo against 1493.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Sarmiento (Junín), so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for River Plate, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Sarmiento (Junín): 36% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 14.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. River Plate: 59% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 10.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

River Plate are the model's most likely outcome at 43.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.6%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	332640	1.29–1.44	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	322643	1.28–1.52	1-1 12%	53%	57%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate to win	42.8%	43.0%	27.8%	1.55×	2.32
Sarmiento (Junín) to win	31.4%	30.4%	41.7%	0.73×	3.29
Draw	25.7%	27.9%	30.6%	0.91×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate & not both score	21.5%	21.9%	17.2%	1.27×	4.57
River Plate & both teams score	21.3%	21.9%	10.7%	2.05×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	19.3%	17.9%	15.9%	1.12×	5.58
Sarmiento (Junín) & both teams score	16.1%	17.9%	14.1%	1.27×	5.58
Sarmiento (Junín) & not both score	15.3%	17.9%	27.8%	0.65×	5.58
Draw & not both score	6.4%	8.4%	14.8%	0.57×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate & over 1.5	33.9%	30.9%	17.5%	1.76×	3.24
River Plate & under 3.5	28.6%	26.0%	23.6%	1.10×	3.84
River Plate & over 2.5	26.8%	26.0%	13.2%	1.97×	3.84
Sarmiento (Junín) & over 1.5	24.0%	21.7%	27.6%	0.78×	4.62
Sarmiento (Junín) & under 3.5	22.0%	21.7%	34.9%	0.62×	4.62
Sarmiento (Junín) & over 2.5	19.1%	18.0%	18.2%	0.99×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	19.3%	18.0%	15.9%	1.13×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	18.6%	18.0%	28.1%	0.64×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.6%	18.0%	28.1%	0.64×	5.56
River Plate & under 2.5	16.0%	18.0%	14.7%	1.23×	5.56
River Plate & over 3.5	14.2%	12.9%	4.2%	3.03×	7.77
Sarmiento (Junín) & under 2.5	12.3%	12.9%	23.6%	0.54×	7.77
Sarmiento (Junín) & over 3.5	9.5%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.70
River Plate & under 1.5	8.9%	7.9%	10.3%	0.76×	12.70
Sarmiento (Junín) & under 1.5	7.4%	7.9%	14.2%	0.55×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	6.4%	7.9%	14.8%	0.53×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	7.2%	7.9%	2.6%	2.99×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	7.2%	7.9%	2.6%	2.99×	12.70

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate (1UP)	59.3%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Sarmiento (Junín) (1UP)	49.5%	43.4%	—	—	2.30

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate (2UP)	42.8%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
Sarmiento (Junín) (2UP)	31.4%	30.8%	—	—	3.25

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate to win 2nd half	38.0%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
2nd half drawn	34.8%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Sarmiento (Junín) to win 2nd half	27.3%	26.4%	—	—	3.79

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate (+2.5)	95.4%	96.3%	95.0%	1.01×	1.04
River Plate (+1.5)	86.4%	88.5%	82.5%	1.07×	1.13
River Plate (+0.5)	68.6%	68.7%	58.3%	1.18×	1.46
Sarmiento (Junín) (+0.5)	57.2%	57.0%	72.2%	0.79×	1.75
River Plate (-0.5)	42.8%	43.0%	27.8%	1.55×	2.33
Sarmiento (Junín) (-0.5)	31.4%	31.3%	41.7%	0.75×	3.20
Sarmiento (Junín) (-1.5)	13.6%	11.5%	17.5%	0.66×	8.70
Sarmiento (Junín) (-2.5)	4.6%	3.7%	5.0%	0.74×	26.78

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate to concede	72.0%	76.5%	68.1%	1.12×	1.31
River Plate clean sheet	28.0%	23.5%	31.9%	0.74×	4.25

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate clean sheet in 1st half	57.8%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
River Plate to concede in 1st half	42.2%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate over 2.5 corners	83.1%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
River Plate under 6.5 corners	72.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
River Plate over 3.5 corners	69.3%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
River Plate under 5.5 corners	60.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
River Plate over 4.5 corners	53.9%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
River Plate under 4.5 corners	46.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
River Plate over 5.5 corners	39.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
River Plate under 3.5 corners	30.7%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
River Plate over 6.5 corners	27.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
River Plate under 2.5 corners	16.9%	18.6%	—	—	5.37

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate under 3.5 goals	93.1%	92.3%	98.9%	0.93×	1.08
River Plate under 2.5 goals	80.2%	81.4%	93.3%	0.87×	1.23
River Plate over 0.5 goals	78.3%	76.2%	57.6%	1.32×	1.31
River Plate under 1.5 goals	54.9%	53.7%	78.2%	0.69×	1.86
River Plate over 1.5 goals	45.1%	46.3%	21.8%	2.13×	2.16
River Plate under 0.5 goals	21.7%	23.8%	42.4%	0.56×	4.21
River Plate over 2.5 goals	19.8%	18.6%	6.7%	2.80×	5.37
River Plate over 3.5 goals	6.9%	7.7%	1.1%	6.68×	13.05

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate under 1.5 in 1st half	87.5%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
River Plate under 0.5 in 1st half	54.3%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
River Plate over 0.5 in 1st half	45.7%	44.2%	—	—	2.26
River Plate over 1.5 in 1st half	12.5%	11.0%	—	—	9.07

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) (away no bet)	55.0%	51.3%	57.7%	0.89×	1.95
Draw (away no bet)	45.0%	48.7%	42.3%	1.15×	2.05

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate even goals	52.4%	52.8%	58.4%	0.90×	1.89
River Plate odd goals	47.6%	47.2%	41.6%	1.13×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	84.3%	83.0%	—	—	1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.7%	17.0%	—	—	5.90

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	65.5%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.5%	31.6%	—	—	3.16

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	56.9%	55.1%	—	—	1.81
River Plate to score 2+ in a row	36.3%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Sarmiento (Junín) to score 2+ in a row	27.5%	25.0%	—	—	3.99
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.2%	19.4%	—	—	5.15
River Plate to score 3+ in a row	12.7%	12.2%	—	—	8.23
Sarmiento (Junín) to score 3+ in a row	7.9%	5.7%	—	—	17.70

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate corners (+3.5)	89.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
River Plate corners (+2.5)	83.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Sarmiento (Junín) corners (+3.5)	77.5%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
River Plate corners (+1.5)	74.9%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Sarmiento (Junín) corners (+2.5)	68.4%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Sarmiento (Junín) corners (+1.5)	57.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
River Plate corners (-1.5)	42.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
River Plate corners (-2.5)	31.6%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Sarmiento (Junín) corners (-1.5)	25.1%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
River Plate corners (-3.5)	22.5%	25.2%	—	—	3.98
Sarmiento (Junín) corners (-2.5)	16.9%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Sarmiento (Junín) corners (-3.5)	10.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	44.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
9-11 corners	30.0%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
12+ corners	25.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	81.8%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	74.6%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	66.6%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	65.8%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 9.5 corners	55.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	55.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	44.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	44.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 10.5 corners	34.2%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	33.4%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	25.4%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Over 12.5 corners	18.2%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.2%	11.5%	13.4%	0.85×	8.73
0-1	8.9%	7.4%	10.3%	0.72×	13.48
1-2	9.0%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.48
0-2	7.1%	7.4%	4.5%	1.66×	13.48
1-0	7.4%	7.4%	14.2%	0.52×	13.48
2-1	7.5%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.48
0-0	6.4%	7.4%	14.8%	0.50×	13.48
2-2	5.7%	7.4%	2.3%	3.23×	13.48
2-0	4.9%	1.7%	9.5%	0.18×	58.46
0-3	3.6%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.47
0-4	1.4%	1.7%	0.6%	2.98×	58.48
1-3	4.6%	1.7%	2.0%	0.88×	58.46
1-4	1.8%	1.7%	0.3%	4.97×	58.48
2-3	2.9%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.47
2-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.1%	14.91×	58.48
3-0	2.1%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.48
3-1	3.2%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.47
3-2	2.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.48
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.3%	4.97×	58.48
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.1%	14.91×	58.49
4-0	0.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.49×	58.49
4-1	1.0%	1.7%	0.8%	2.13×	58.48
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	0.3%	4.97×	58.49
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	7.45×	58.49
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.45×	58.49
Any other score	2.9%	1.7%	0.9%	1.86×	58.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate leading at HT (DNB)	53.5%	56.1%	—	—	1.78
Sarmiento (Junín) leading at HT (DNB)	46.5%	43.9%	—	—	2.28

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) or River Plate (12)	74.3%	72.1%	69.4%	1.04×	1.39
River Plate or draw (X2)	68.6%	69.6%	58.3%	1.20×	1.44
Sarmiento (Junín) or draw (1X)	57.2%	57.0%	72.2%	0.79×	1.76

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate or draw at HT	73.5%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Sarmiento (Junín) or draw at HT	69.5%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
Sarmiento (Junín) or River Plate at HT	57.1%	56.9%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate or draw (1UP)	68.6%	76.1%	—	—	1.31
Sarmiento (Junín) or draw (1UP)	57.2%	62.7%	—	—	1.60

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate or draw in 2nd half	72.7%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Sarmiento (Junín) or River Plate in 2nd half	65.2%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Sarmiento (Junín) or draw in 2nd half	62.0%	64.0%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.4%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	37.6%	38.3%	—	—	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate (DNB)	57.7%	58.3%	39.9%	1.46×	1.72
Sarmiento (Junín) (DNB)	42.3%	41.7%	60.1%	0.69×	2.40

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate to score first	51.0%	53.8%	—	—	1.86
Sarmiento (Junín) to score first	42.6%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
No goal scored	6.4%	7.5%	—	—	13.39

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	56.7%	54.9%	40.5%	1.36×	1.82
Not both teams to score	43.3%	45.1%	59.5%	0.76×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.5%	41.6%	27.2%	1.53×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	34.8%	34.3%	52.9%	0.65×	2.92
Both score & under 2.5	12.2%	12.3%	13.4%	0.92×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	8.5%	8.4%	6.8%	1.24×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	83.6%	83.1%	94.2%	0.88×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	16.4%	16.9%	5.8%	2.89×	5.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	68.9%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	31.1%	32.3%	—	—	3.09

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	55.6%	59.2%	—	—	1.69
Both score 2nd half only	25.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Both score 1st half only	13.4%	10.7%	—	—	9.31
Both score in both halves	6.0%	6.7%	—	—	14.85

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.7%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	19.3%	17.6%	—	—	5.68

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	55.5%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	44.5%	42.8%	—	—	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.4%	47.4%	47.4%	1.00×	2.11
4-6 goals	28.4%	26.4%	13.3%	1.99×	3.78
0-1 goals	22.8%	22.8%	39.1%	0.58×	4.38
7+ goals	2.4%	1.8%	0.5%	4.00×	54.55

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate to score exactly 1	33.2%	33.8%	35.9%	0.94×	2.96
River Plate to score exactly 2	25.3%	27.4%	15.3%	1.80×	3.65
River Plate to score exactly 0	21.7%	22.4%	42.4%	0.53×	4.46
River Plate to score 3+	19.8%	19.6%	6.7%	2.94×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) to score exactly 1	35.6%	35.6%	36.6%	0.97×	2.81
Sarmiento (Junín) to score exactly 0	28.0%	26.5%	31.9%	0.83×	3.77
Sarmiento (Junín) to score exactly 2	22.7%	23.2%	21.8%	1.07×	4.30
Sarmiento (Junín) to score 3+	13.7%	14.3%	10.0%	1.44×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.9%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
River Plate leading at HT	30.5%	33.6%	—	—	2.97
Sarmiento (Junín) leading at HT	26.5%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate -1: 1	57.2%	56.7%	—	—	1.77
River Plate -1: X	21.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
River Plate -1: 2	21.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate (0:1)	68.6%	65.5%	58.3%	1.12×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	17.8%	17.8%	24.3%	0.73×	5.63
Sarmiento (Junín) (0:1)	13.6%	13.8%	17.5%	0.79×	7.22

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate (0:2)	86.4%	86.9%	82.5%	1.05×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	9.0%	7.7%	12.6%	0.61×	12.94
Sarmiento (Junín) (0:2)	4.6%	3.8%	5.0%	0.75×	26.49

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate (0:3)	95.4%	96.6%	95.0%	1.02×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.3%	2.4%	3.4%	0.69×	42.13
Sarmiento (Junín) (0:3)	1.3%	2.4%	1.7%	1.38×	42.23

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate (0:4)	98.7%	98.1%	98.3%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	1.3%	0.95×	83.64
Sarmiento (Junín) (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	0.6%	2.08×	83.72

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) (1:0)	57.2%	58.1%	72.2%	0.80×	1.72
Draw (1:0)	21.4%	21.8%	18.7%	1.17×	4.59
River Plate (1:0)	21.4%	21.8%	9.2%	2.37×	4.59

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) (2:0)	78.6%	80.4%	90.8%	0.88×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	12.9%	10.4%	6.3%	1.65×	9.63
River Plate (2:0)	8.5%	6.5%	3.0%	2.17×	15.48

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.3%	48.2%	—	—	2.07
1st half highest scoring	26.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	25.0%	24.1%	—	—	4.14

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) to concede	78.3%	76.0%	57.6%	1.32×	1.32
Sarmiento (Junín) clean sheet	21.7%	24.0%	42.4%	0.57×	4.16

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) clean sheet in 1st half	54.3%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Sarmiento (Junín) to concede in 1st half	45.7%	44.2%	—	—	2.26

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) under 6.5 corners	83.6%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Sarmiento (Junín) over 2.5 corners	74.3%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Sarmiento (Junín) under 5.5 corners	73.4%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Sarmiento (Junín) under 4.5 corners	59.5%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Sarmiento (Junín) over 3.5 corners	57.1%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Sarmiento (Junín) under 3.5 corners	42.9%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Sarmiento (Junín) over 4.5 corners	40.5%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Sarmiento (Junín) over 5.5 corners	26.6%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Sarmiento (Junín) under 2.5 corners	25.7%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Sarmiento (Junín) over 6.5 corners	16.4%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) under 3.5 goals	95.9%	96.4%	97.1%	0.99×	1.04
Sarmiento (Junín) under 2.5 goals	86.3%	87.3%	90.0%	0.97×	1.15
Sarmiento (Junín) over 0.5 goals	72.0%	74.2%	68.1%	1.09×	1.35
Sarmiento (Junín) under 1.5 goals	63.6%	63.5%	68.3%	0.93×	1.57
Sarmiento (Junín) over 1.5 goals	36.4%	36.5%	31.7%	1.15×	2.74
Sarmiento (Junín) under 0.5 goals	28.0%	25.8%	31.9%	0.81×	3.87
Sarmiento (Junín) over 2.5 goals	13.7%	12.7%	10.0%	1.28×	7.84
Sarmiento (Junín) over 3.5 goals	4.1%	3.6%	2.9%	1.27×	27.44

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) under 1.5 in 1st half	89.5%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Sarmiento (Junín) under 0.5 in 1st half	57.8%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Sarmiento (Junín) over 0.5 in 1st half	42.2%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
Sarmiento (Junín) over 1.5 in 1st half	10.5%	10.1%	—	—	9.89

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate (home no bet)	62.5%	60.2%	47.5%	1.27×	1.66
Draw (home no bet)	37.5%	39.8%	52.5%	0.76×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) even goals	53.9%	50.6%	55.7%	0.91×	1.98
Sarmiento (Junín) odd goals	46.1%	49.4%	44.3%	1.12×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	31.5%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
HT 0-1	19.1%	18.7%	—	—	5.35
HT 1-0	17.1%	18.6%	—	—	5.36
HT 1-1	10.6%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 0-2	5.9%	7.1%	—	—	14.05
HT 2-0	4.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.36
Any other HT score	4.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.40
HT 1-2	3.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.47
HT 2-1	2.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.49
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.64

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate at HT / River Plate at FT	23.7%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Sarmiento (Junín) at HT / Sarmiento (Junín) at FT	18.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / River Plate at FT	16.1%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.3%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / Sarmiento (Junín) at FT	11.5%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Sarmiento (Junín) at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.0%	—	—	16.72
River Plate at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.73
Sarmiento (Junín) at HT / River Plate at FT	3.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.80
River Plate at HT / Sarmiento (Junín) at FT	1.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.85

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate to score last	51.0%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Sarmiento (Junín) to score last	42.6%	40.1%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	6.4%	7.5%	—	—	13.39

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.6%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
River Plate to lead by 1 at any time	59.3%	55.1%	—	—	1.81
Sarmiento (Junín) to lead by 1 at any time	49.5%	44.0%	—	—	2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	47.3%	44.0%	—	—	2.28
River Plate to lead by 2 at any time	28.0%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
Sarmiento (Junín) to lead by 2 at any time	19.5%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.9%	14.9%	—	—	6.73
River Plate to lead by 3 at any time	10.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Sarmiento (Junín) to lead by 3 at any time	6.2%	6.6%	—	—	15.16

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate most corners	53.7%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Sarmiento (Junín) most corners	35.1%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	11.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.1%	87.4%	84.3%	1.04×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.3%	78.6%	80.0%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.8%	72.4%	60.6%	1.20×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.7%	72.4%	60.0%	1.21×	1.38
1-3 goals	62.8%	63.4%	71.7%	0.88×	1.58
2-4 goals	62.0%	63.4%	55.7%	1.14×	1.58
3-6 goals	50.6%	53.2%	33.5%	1.59×	1.88
2-3 goals	46.4%	48.7%	47.4%	1.03×	2.06
3-5 goals	46.5%	48.7%	32.9%	1.48×	2.06
1-2 goals	40.5%	43.6%	51.5%	0.85×	2.30
3-4 goals	37.8%	39.1%	28.7%	1.37×	2.56
4-6 goals	28.4%	30.2%	13.3%	2.27×	3.31
4-5 goals	24.3%	24.5%	12.7%	1.92×	4.09
5-6 goals	12.8%	14.9%	4.9%	3.02×	6.73
7+ goals	2.4%	2.5%	0.5%	5.56×	39.24

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate never behind	44.1%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
Sarmiento (Junín) never behind	34.3%	35.7%	—	—	2.80

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.1%	50.8%	49.1%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.9%	49.2%	50.9%	0.97×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.1%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	45.0%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.1%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.9%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	93.5%	92.3%	99.0%	0.93×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.6%	92.3%	85.2%	1.08×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.8%	82.4%	94.7%	0.87×	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	77.2%	77.3%	60.9%	1.27×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	69.2%	66.2%	86.4%	0.77×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	53.1%	52.5%	33.8%	1.55×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	46.9%	47.5%	66.2%	0.72×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	30.8%	33.8%	13.6%	2.47×	2.96
Under 1.5 goals	22.8%	22.7%	39.1%	0.58×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	15.2%	17.6%	5.3%	3.34×	5.68
Over 5.5 goals	6.5%	7.7%	1.0%	7.49×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	6.4%	7.7%	14.8%	0.52×	12.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.5%	97.2%	99.5%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.9%	92.5%	98.9%	0.93×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	82.0%	81.1%	94.2%	0.86×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	70.0%	67.4%	46.4%	1.45×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	60.4%	62.1%	82.9%	0.75×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	39.6%	37.9%	17.1%	2.22×	2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	30.0%	32.6%	53.6%	0.61×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	18.0%	18.9%	5.8%	3.29×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.1%	7.5%	1.1%	6.99×	13.27
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.5%	2.8%	0.5%	5.99×	36.16

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.8%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.5%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.7%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	32.3%	30.9%	—	—	3.23
Under 0.5 in 1st half	31.5%	30.9%	—	—	3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.2%	11.0%	—	—	9.13

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.5%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	77.3%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	51.0%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	49.0%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	22.7%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.5%	17.3%	—	—	5.78

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) not to score in both halves	78.2%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
River Plate not to score in both halves	72.6%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
River Plate to score in both halves	27.4%	26.3%	—	—	3.81
Sarmiento (Junín) to score in both halves	21.8%	21.7%	—	—	4.60

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	56.7%	58.4%	40.5%	1.44×	1.71
Only River Plate scores	21.5%	22.3%	17.2%	1.30×	4.48
Only Sarmiento (Junín) scores	15.3%	16.1%	27.8%	0.58×	6.23
Neither team scores	6.4%	7.2%	14.8%	0.49×	13.92

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.2%	22.6%	27.2%	0.83×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	20.3%	1.11×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	16.3%	17.4%	24.4%	0.71×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	15.6%	17.4%	8.5%	2.05×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	8.7%	7.6%	4.4%	1.75×	13.09
6 or more goals	6.5%	7.6%	1.0%	7.40×	13.09
Exactly 0 goals	6.4%	7.6%	14.8%	0.52×	13.09

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	49.0%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	31.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	19.5%	17.3%	—	—	5.78

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) not to win both halves	92.7%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
River Plate not to win both halves	88.3%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
River Plate to win both halves	11.7%	12.0%	—	—	8.30
Sarmiento (Junín) to win both halves	7.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.60

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
River Plate to win either half	56.9%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
Sarmiento (Junín) to win neither half	53.5%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Sarmiento (Junín) to win either half	46.5%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
River Plate to win neither half	43.1%	40.5%	—	—	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) not to win to nil	84.7%	83.1%	72.2%	1.15×	1.20
River Plate not to win to nil	78.5%	78.1%	82.8%	0.94×	1.28
River Plate to win to nil	21.5%	21.9%	17.2%	1.28×	4.56
Sarmiento (Junín) to win to nil	15.3%	16.9%	27.8%	0.61×	5.90

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.7%	27.8%	30.6%	0.91×	3.59
River Plate by 1	21.4%	24.1%	18.7%	1.29×	4.14
Sarmiento (Junín) by 1	17.8%	16.9%	24.3%	0.70×	5.91
River Plate by 2	12.9%	11.8%	6.3%	1.87×	8.48
Sarmiento (Junín) by 2	9.0%	7.3%	12.6%	0.58×	13.78
River Plate by 3+	8.5%	7.3%	3.0%	2.43×	13.78
Sarmiento (Junín) by 3+	4.6%	2.7%	5.0%	0.54×	36.95