Sarpsborg FK v Lillestrom — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 22 November 2026 · NOR-Eliteserien · 2627

NOR-Eliteserien results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Sarpsborg FK

18:15 UTC

Lillestrom

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 655h before kick-off

Sarpsborg FK win

43.1%

model 40.2%

Draw

27.4%

model 27.0%

Lillestrom win

29.5%

model 32.8%

432730

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.8%
2-1 8.8%
1-0 8.7%
1-2 7.8%
0-1 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	51.4%	Under 2.5	48.6%
BTTS yes	56.0%	BTTS no	44.0%
Sarpsborg FK 1+	76.4%	Sarpsborg FK 2+	42.4%
Lillestrom 1+	72.3%	Lillestrom 2+	36.8%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.29. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

78/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Under 3.5 goals

Over/Under · usually 61%

71.9% fair odds 1.39

moderate signal · 1675 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Lillestrom (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 72%

83.5% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Sarpsborg FK carry the stronger rating, 1518 Elo against 1487.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Sarpsborg FK have an estimated 43.1% win probability, against 29.5% for Lillestrom and 27.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.45 for Sarpsborg FK and 1.28 for Lillestrom.

Why Sarpsborg FK

Sarpsborg FK carry the stronger rating, 1518 Elo against 1487.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.4%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.45 to 1.28. Draws run at 20% in this competition.

Why Lillestrom can win

Nothing in the data singles out Lillestrom.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Sarpsborg FK, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Lillestrom, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Sarpsborg FK: 46% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 16.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Lillestrom: 54% possession, 13.6 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Sarpsborg FK are the model's most likely outcome at 43.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.8%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	402733	1.45–1.29	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	372835	1.34–1.30	1-1 13%	49%	55%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK to win	37.2%	36.3%	49.0%	0.74×	2.75
Lillestrom to win	35.2%	36.3%	31.3%	1.16×	2.75
Draw	27.6%	27.9%	19.9%	1.40×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK & not both score	19.4%	18.0%	24.1%	0.75×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	19.8%	18.0%	15.0%	1.20×	5.56
Sarpsborg FK & both teams score	17.8%	18.0%	25.1%	0.72×	5.56
Lillestrom & not both score	18.2%	18.0%	14.8%	1.22×	5.56
Lillestrom & both teams score	16.9%	18.0%	16.8%	1.07×	5.57
Draw & not both score	7.8%	8.3%	5.2%	1.61×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK & over 1.5	28.4%	26.1%	41.2%	0.63×	3.84
Sarpsborg FK & under 3.5	26.5%	26.0%	28.0%	0.93×	3.84
Lillestrom & over 1.5	26.7%	26.0%	26.4%	0.99×	3.84
Lillestrom & under 3.5	25.2%	26.0%	19.4%	1.34×	3.84
Sarpsborg FK & over 2.5	22.0%	21.6%	34.7%	0.62×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	21.0%	21.6%	14.5%	1.49×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	21.0%	21.6%	14.5%	1.49×	4.63
Lillestrom & over 2.5	20.7%	21.6%	21.5%	1.00×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.8%	18.0%	15.0%	1.20×	5.55
Sarpsborg FK & under 2.5	15.2%	18.0%	14.5%	1.24×	5.56
Lillestrom & under 2.5	14.5%	12.8%	10.1%	1.27×	7.79
Sarpsborg FK & over 3.5	10.8%	12.8%	21.2%	0.60×	7.79
Lillestrom & over 3.5	10.0%	7.9%	12.2%	0.65×	12.62
Sarpsborg FK & under 1.5	8.8%	7.9%	8.0%	0.99×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	7.8%	7.9%	5.2%	1.53×	12.63
Lillestrom & under 1.5	8.5%	7.9%	5.2%	1.53×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.6%	7.9%	5.7%	1.39×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.6%	7.9%	5.7%	1.39×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK (1UP)	54.0%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Lillestrom (1UP)	52.2%	52.3%	—	—	1.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK (2UP)	37.2%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Lillestrom (2UP)	35.2%	37.2%	—	—	2.69

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	36.6%	36.4%	—	—	2.74
Lillestrom to win 2nd half	32.1%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
Sarpsborg FK to win 2nd half	31.3%	34.0%	—	—	2.94

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lillestrom under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.6%	84.0%	—	—	1.19
Lillestrom over 0.5 in 2nd half	54.2%	52.5%	—	—	1.90
Lillestrom under 0.5 in 2nd half	45.8%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Lillestrom over 1.5 in 2nd half	18.4%	16.0%	—	—	6.27

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK under 1.5 in 2nd half	82.1%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Sarpsborg FK over 0.5 in 2nd half	53.5%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Sarpsborg FK under 0.5 in 2nd half	46.5%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Sarpsborg FK over 1.5 in 2nd half	17.9%	17.6%	—	—	5.68

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lillestrom (+2.5)	93.8%	92.1%	85.5%	1.08×	1.09
Lillestrom (+1.5)	82.8%	82.6%	72.0%	1.15×	1.21
Sarpsborg FK (+0.5)	64.8%	63.0%	68.7%	0.92×	1.59
Lillestrom (+0.5)	62.8%	62.9%	51.0%	1.23×	1.59
Sarpsborg FK (-0.5)	37.2%	37.1%	49.0%	0.76×	2.70
Lillestrom (-0.5)	35.2%	37.0%	31.3%	1.18×	2.70
Sarpsborg FK (-1.5)	17.2%	17.4%	28.0%	0.62×	5.74
Sarpsborg FK (-2.5)	6.2%	7.9%	14.5%	0.54×	12.71

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lillestrom to concede	73.9%	76.7%	80.3%	0.96×	1.30
Lillestrom clean sheet	26.1%	23.3%	19.7%	1.18×	4.29

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lillestrom clean sheet in 1st half	56.1%	56.4%	—	—	1.77
Lillestrom to concede in 1st half	43.9%	43.6%	—	—	2.29

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lillestrom to concede in 2nd half	53.5%	54.5%	—	—	1.84
Lillestrom clean sheet in 2nd half	46.5%	45.5%	—	—	2.20

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lillestrom over 2.5 corners	83.7%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Lillestrom over 3.5 corners	71.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Lillestrom under 6.5 corners	68.8%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Lillestrom over 4.5 corners	56.8%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Lillestrom under 5.5 corners	56.9%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Lillestrom under 4.5 corners	43.2%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Lillestrom over 5.5 corners	43.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Lillestrom over 6.5 corners	31.2%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Lillestrom under 3.5 corners	29.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Lillestrom under 2.5 corners	16.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lillestrom under 3.5 goals	95.7%	97.5%	93.5%	1.04×	1.03
Lillestrom under 2.5 goals	85.7%	87.8%	82.6%	1.06×	1.14
Lillestrom over 0.5 goals	72.7%	71.8%	71.0%	1.01×	1.39
Lillestrom under 1.5 goals	62.7%	63.2%	63.0%	1.00×	1.58
Lillestrom over 1.5 goals	37.3%	36.8%	37.0%	0.99×	2.72
Lillestrom under 0.5 goals	27.3%	28.2%	29.0%	0.97×	3.55
Lillestrom over 2.5 goals	14.3%	12.2%	17.4%	0.70×	8.19
Lillestrom over 3.5 goals	4.3%	2.5%	6.5%	0.39×	39.75

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lillestrom under 1.5 in 1st half	90.4%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Lillestrom under 0.5 in 1st half	59.5%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Lillestrom over 0.5 in 1st half	40.5%	37.6%	—	—	2.66
Lillestrom over 1.5 in 1st half	9.6%	6.1%	—	—	16.26

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lillestrom scores equally in both	39.5%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Lillestrom scores more in 2nd half	38.3%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Lillestrom scores more in 1st half	22.3%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK (away no bet)	57.4%	57.3%	71.1%	0.81×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	42.6%	42.7%	28.9%	1.47×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lillestrom even goals	53.7%	52.6%	52.9%	1.00×	1.90
Lillestrom odd goals	46.3%	47.4%	47.2%	1.00×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	86.3%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	13.7%	12.2%	—	—	8.21

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	62.4%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals	37.6%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	53.8%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Sarpsborg FK to score 2+ in a row	30.7%	28.9%	—	—	3.47
Lillestrom to score 2+ in a row	29.1%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.0%	16.2%	—	—	6.19
Sarpsborg FK to score 3+ in a row	9.6%	5.6%	—	—	18.00
Lillestrom to score 3+ in a row	8.7%	5.5%	—	—	18.07

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK corners (+3.5)	82.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Lillestrom corners (+3.5)	77.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Sarpsborg FK corners (+2.5)	75.6%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Lillestrom corners (+2.5)	70.2%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Sarpsborg FK corners (+1.5)	67.4%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Lillestrom corners (+1.5)	61.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Sarpsborg FK corners (-1.5)	38.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Lillestrom corners (-1.5)	32.6%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Sarpsborg FK corners (-2.5)	29.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Lillestrom corners (-2.5)	24.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Sarpsborg FK corners (-3.5)	22.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Lillestrom corners (-3.5)	17.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	42.7%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
0-8 corners	29.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
9-11 corners	28.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	79.2%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 8.5 corners	70.7%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	65.8%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 9.5 corners	61.5%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 11.5 corners	57.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 10.5 corners	51.9%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 10.5 corners	48.1%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 11.5 corners	42.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 9.5 corners	38.5%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 12.5 corners	34.2%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 8.5 corners	29.3%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	20.8%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.2%	11.5%	9.6%	1.20×	8.71
0-1	8.5%	7.4%	5.2%	1.43×	13.51
1-0	8.8%	7.4%	8.0%	0.92×	13.51
0-0	7.8%	7.4%	5.2%	1.43×	13.51
1-2	8.1%	7.4%	6.2%	1.19×	13.51
2-1	8.3%	7.4%	9.8%	0.75×	13.51
0-2	6.0%	7.4%	5.2%	1.43×	13.51
2-0	6.4%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.51
2-2	5.4%	7.4%	4.4%	1.68×	13.51
0-3	2.6%	1.7%	3.6%	0.47×	58.30
0-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.5%	3.31×	58.31
1-3	3.5%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
1-4	1.1%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.31
2-3	2.4%	1.7%	3.6%	0.47×	58.31
2-4	0.8%	1.7%	1.3%	1.32×	58.31
3-0	2.9%	1.7%	4.1%	0.41×	58.30
3-1	3.7%	1.7%	6.2%	0.28×	58.30
3-2	2.4%	1.7%	3.6%	0.47×	58.31
3-3	1.1%	1.7%	1.0%	1.65×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.31×	58.32
4-0	1.0%	1.7%	3.6%	0.47×	58.31
4-1	1.3%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.31
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	1.3%	1.32×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.5%	3.31×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.31×	58.32
Any other score	2.3%	1.7%	7.3%	0.24×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lillestrom (2nd half DNB)	50.6%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Sarpsborg FK (2nd half DNB)	49.4%	45.6%	—	—	2.19

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK leading at HT (DNB)	53.4%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
Lillestrom leading at HT (DNB)	46.6%	43.8%	—	—	2.28

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK or Lillestrom (12)	72.4%	72.1%	80.1%	0.90×	1.39
Sarpsborg FK or draw (1X)	64.8%	63.7%	68.7%	0.93×	1.57
Lillestrom or draw (X2)	62.8%	63.7%	51.0%	1.25×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK or draw at HT	74.1%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
Lillestrom or draw at HT	70.3%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Sarpsborg FK or Lillestrom at HT	55.6%	57.4%	—	—	1.74

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK or draw (1UP)	64.8%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Lillestrom or draw (1UP)	62.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lillestrom or draw in 2nd half	68.7%	66.0%	—	—	1.51
Sarpsborg FK or draw in 2nd half	67.9%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Sarpsborg FK or Lillestrom in 2nd half	63.4%	63.6%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.9%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	36.1%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK (DNB)	51.4%	50.9%	61.0%	0.83×	1.97
Lillestrom (DNB)	48.6%	49.1%	39.0%	1.26×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK to score first	46.8%	45.8%	—	—	2.18
Lillestrom to score first	45.3%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
No goal scored	7.8%	7.6%	—	—	13.18

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.5%	51.3%	56.5%	0.91×	1.95
Not both teams to score	45.5%	48.7%	43.5%	1.12×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	41.4%	41.6%	47.2%	0.88×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	37.6%	38.5%	29.3%	1.31×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	13.2%	12.4%	9.6%	1.29×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	7.9%	8.3%	14.5%	0.57×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.5%	85.6%	83.4%	1.03×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.5%	14.4%	16.6%	0.87×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.8%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.2%	26.4%	—	—	3.78

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	58.0%	60.1%	—	—	1.66
Both score 2nd half only	24.1%	21.3%	—	—	4.70
Both score 1st half only	12.8%	10.8%	—	—	9.30
Both score in both halves	5.2%	6.7%	—	—	14.84

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.1%	83.4%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	17.9%	16.6%	—	—	6.02

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	52.8%	52.7%	—	—	1.90
A half without a goal	47.2%	47.3%	—	—	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.5%	47.2%	43.8%	1.08×	2.12
4-6 goals	25.5%	26.6%	35.5%	0.75×	3.76
0-1 goals	25.2%	26.6%	17.9%	1.49×	3.76
7+ goals	1.9%	1.8%	3.4%	0.55×	54.38

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lillestrom to score exactly 1	35.4%	35.9%	34.2%	1.05×	2.79
Lillestrom to score exactly 0	27.3%	27.4%	29.0%	0.95×	3.65
Lillestrom to score exactly 2	23.0%	22.3%	19.9%	1.12×	4.49
Lillestrom to score 3+	14.3%	12.9%	17.4%	0.74×	7.75

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK to score exactly 1	35.1%	35.5%	28.2%	1.26×	2.81
Sarpsborg FK to score exactly 0	26.1%	26.5%	19.7%	1.35×	3.77
Sarpsborg FK to score exactly 2	23.6%	23.3%	25.9%	0.90×	4.29
Sarpsborg FK to score 3+	15.3%	18.8%	26.7%	0.70×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	44.4%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Sarpsborg FK leading at HT	29.7%	25.6%	—	—	3.91
Lillestrom leading at HT	25.9%	25.5%	—	—	3.93

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK -1: 2	62.8%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Sarpsborg FK -1: X	20.0%	17.5%	—	—	5.71
Sarpsborg FK -1: 1	17.2%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lillestrom (0:1)	62.8%	61.5%	51.0%	1.20×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	20.0%	17.8%	21.2%	0.84×	5.61
Sarpsborg FK (0:1)	17.2%	17.8%	28.0%	0.64×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lillestrom (0:2)	82.8%	83.0%	72.0%	1.15×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.1%	11.0%	13.7%	0.80×	9.11
Sarpsborg FK (0:2)	6.2%	7.7%	14.5%	0.53×	13.07

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lillestrom (0:3)	93.8%	92.7%	85.5%	1.08×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.4%	2.4%	7.0%	0.34×	41.95
Sarpsborg FK (0:3)	1.8%	2.4%	7.8%	0.31×	42.06

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lillestrom (0:4)	98.2%	98.1%	92.2%	1.06×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.4%	1.2%	4.7%	0.26×	81.75
Sarpsborg FK (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	3.4%	0.36×	81.85

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK (1:0)	64.8%	65.3%	68.7%	0.95×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	19.3%	17.1%	14.8%	1.16×	5.84
Lillestrom (1:0)	15.9%	17.1%	16.8%	1.01×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK (2:0)	84.1%	84.6%	83.2%	1.02×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	10.4%	10.3%	9.1%	1.13×	9.73
Lillestrom (2:0)	5.5%	6.4%	8.0%	0.79×	15.68

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.0%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
1st half highest scoring	26.5%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	26.5%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK to concede	72.7%	73.0%	71.0%	1.03×	1.37
Sarpsborg FK clean sheet	27.3%	27.0%	29.0%	0.93×	3.71

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK clean sheet in 1st half	59.5%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Sarpsborg FK to concede in 1st half	40.5%	37.6%	—	—	2.66

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK to concede in 2nd half	54.2%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Sarpsborg FK clean sheet in 2nd half	45.8%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK over 2.5 corners	86.1%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Sarpsborg FK over 3.5 corners	74.5%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Sarpsborg FK under 6.5 corners	64.4%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Sarpsborg FK over 4.5 corners	61.1%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Sarpsborg FK under 5.5 corners	52.3%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Sarpsborg FK over 5.5 corners	47.7%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Sarpsborg FK under 4.5 corners	38.9%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Sarpsborg FK over 6.5 corners	35.6%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Sarpsborg FK under 3.5 corners	25.5%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Sarpsborg FK under 2.5 corners	13.9%	13.8%	—	—	7.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK under 3.5 goals	95.2%	96.4%	87.6%	1.10×	1.04
Sarpsborg FK under 2.5 goals	84.7%	82.2%	73.3%	1.12×	1.22
Sarpsborg FK over 0.5 goals	73.9%	74.2%	80.3%	0.92×	1.35
Sarpsborg FK under 1.5 goals	61.1%	63.6%	47.7%	1.33×	1.57
Sarpsborg FK over 1.5 goals	38.9%	36.4%	52.3%	0.70×	2.75
Sarpsborg FK under 0.5 goals	26.1%	25.8%	19.7%	1.31×	3.88
Sarpsborg FK over 2.5 goals	15.3%	17.8%	26.7%	0.67×	5.62
Sarpsborg FK over 3.5 goals	4.8%	3.6%	12.4%	0.29×	27.48

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK under 1.5 in 1st half	88.5%	90.2%	—	—	1.11
Sarpsborg FK under 0.5 in 1st half	56.1%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
Sarpsborg FK over 0.5 in 1st half	43.9%	43.8%	—	—	2.28
Sarpsborg FK over 1.5 in 1st half	11.5%	9.8%	—	—	10.23

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK scores equally in both	39.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Sarpsborg FK scores more in 2nd half	36.2%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Sarpsborg FK scores more in 1st half	24.8%	21.1%	—	—	4.73

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lillestrom (home no bet)	56.0%	56.4%	61.1%	0.92×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	44.0%	43.6%	38.9%	1.12×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK even goals	53.4%	50.8%	53.9%	0.94×	1.97
Sarpsborg FK odd goals	46.6%	49.2%	46.1%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	33.5%	33.6%	—	—	2.98
HT 1-0	19.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 0-1	17.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.39
HT 1-1	10.2%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 2-0	5.6%	6.9%	—	—	14.57
HT 0-2	4.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.11
Any other HT score	3.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.16
HT 2-1	2.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.21
HT 1-2	2.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.23
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.35

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK at HT / Sarpsborg FK at FT	21.6%	21.6%	—	—	4.64
Lillestrom at HT / Lillestrom at FT	18.9%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	17.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Lillestrom at FT	13.9%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Sarpsborg FK at FT	13.5%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Sarpsborg FK at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.1%	—	—	16.53
Lillestrom at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
Sarpsborg FK at HT / Lillestrom at FT	2.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.93
Lillestrom at HT / Sarpsborg FK at FT	2.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.94

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK to score last	46.9%	46.3%	—	—	2.16
Lillestrom to score last	45.3%	46.2%	—	—	2.16
No goal scored	7.8%	7.6%	—	—	13.18

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.2%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Sarpsborg FK to lead by 1 at any time	54.0%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Lillestrom to lead by 1 at any time	52.2%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	44.6%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Sarpsborg FK to lead by 2 at any time	23.1%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Lillestrom to lead by 2 at any time	21.6%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.0%	14.8%	—	—	6.76
Sarpsborg FK to lead by 3 at any time	7.9%	6.7%	—	—	15.02
Lillestrom to lead by 3 at any time	7.1%	6.6%	—	—	15.05

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK most corners	48.3%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Lillestrom most corners	41.9%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	9.8%	8.4%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.9%	87.4%	87.0%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.3%	78.7%	73.1%	1.08×	1.27
2-6 goals	73.0%	72.3%	79.0%	0.92×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.6%	68.8%	74.4%	0.93×	1.45
1-3 goals	64.8%	63.3%	56.5%	1.12×	1.58
2-4 goals	62.0%	63.3%	60.4%	1.05×	1.58
2-3 goals	47.5%	48.4%	43.8%	1.11×	2.06
3-6 goals	47.4%	48.4%	58.3%	0.83×	2.06
3-5 goals	44.0%	43.6%	53.6%	0.81×	2.29
1-2 goals	42.9%	43.6%	33.7%	1.29×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.4%	39.2%	39.6%	0.99×	2.55
4-6 goals	25.5%	30.2%	35.5%	0.85×	3.31
4-5 goals	22.1%	24.5%	30.8%	0.79×	4.09
5-6 goals	11.0%	14.8%	18.9%	0.78×	6.76
7+ goals	1.9%	2.6%	3.4%	0.76×	39.19

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK never behind	39.9%	44.4%	—	—	2.26
Lillestrom never behind	38.2%	44.3%	—	—	2.26

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.3%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.97
Even number of goals	51.7%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.8%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	44.2%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.8%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.2%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.8%	92.3%	92.0%	1.00×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.2%	92.3%	94.8%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	87.1%	87.6%	78.0%	1.12×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	74.8%	72.5%	82.1%	0.88×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	72.6%	72.5%	61.4%	1.18×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	50.7%	52.5%	38.6%	1.36×	1.90
Over 2.5 goals	49.3%	47.5%	61.4%	0.77×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	27.4%	27.5%	38.6%	0.71×	3.64
Under 1.5 goals	25.2%	27.5%	17.9%	1.54×	3.64
Over 4.5 goals	12.9%	12.4%	22.0%	0.56×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	7.8%	7.7%	5.2%	1.49×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	5.2%	7.7%	8.0%	0.96×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.1%	97.2%	96.5%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.3%	92.4%	90.7%	1.02×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	84.9%	81.1%	73.6%	1.10×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	66.2%	67.5%	77.5%	0.87×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	65.0%	61.9%	50.0%	1.24×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	35.0%	38.1%	50.0%	0.76×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	33.8%	32.5%	22.5%	1.44×	3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	15.1%	18.9%	26.4%	0.72×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.7%	7.6%	9.3%	0.81×	13.20
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.9%	2.8%	3.5%	0.79×	35.63

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.1%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	69.9%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half	66.5%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	33.5%	31.5%	—	—	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	30.1%	31.4%	—	—	3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.9%	7.4%	—	—	13.58

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.7%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.4%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	54.0%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.0%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.6%	20.5%	—	—	4.89
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.3%	20.4%	—	—	4.90

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lillestrom not to score in both halves	78.0%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Sarpsborg FK not to score in both halves	76.5%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Sarpsborg FK to score in both halves	23.5%	21.6%	—	—	4.62
Lillestrom to score in both halves	22.0%	21.6%	—	—	4.64

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	54.5%	53.8%	56.5%	0.95×	1.86
Only Sarpsborg FK scores	19.4%	16.1%	24.1%	0.67×	6.23
Only Lillestrom scores	18.2%	16.0%	14.8%	1.09×	6.23
Neither team scores	7.8%	7.1%	5.2%	1.38×	14.00

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.6%	24.9%	21.0%	1.18×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	21.9%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	17.3%	17.5%	13.0%	1.35×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.5%	12.1%	16.8%	0.72×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	7.8%	7.6%	5.2%	1.47×	13.14
Exactly 5 goals	7.7%	7.6%	14.2%	0.53×	13.14
6 or more goals	5.2%	7.6%	8.0%	0.95×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.4%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
No goals in 1st half	33.5%	35.8%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	20.2%	21.4%	—	—	4.68
3+ goals in 1st half	9.9%	7.4%	—	—	13.58

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	46.0%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	32.4%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	21.6%	22.9%	—	—	4.37

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lillestrom not to win both halves	91.6%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Sarpsborg FK not to win both halves	90.6%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Sarpsborg FK to win both halves	9.4%	5.9%	—	—	16.98
Lillestrom to win both halves	8.4%	5.9%	—	—	17.05

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarpsborg FK to win either half	51.6%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Lillestrom to win neither half	50.4%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Lillestrom to win either half	49.6%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Sarpsborg FK to win neither half	48.4%	45.7%	—	—	2.19

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lillestrom not to win to nil	81.8%	83.1%	85.2%	0.97×	1.20
Sarpsborg FK not to win to nil	80.6%	83.1%	75.9%	1.09×	1.20
Sarpsborg FK to win to nil	19.4%	16.9%	24.1%	0.70×	5.91
Lillestrom to win to nil	18.2%	16.9%	14.8%	1.15×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.6%	27.9%	19.9%	1.40×	3.59
Sarpsborg FK by 1	20.0%	17.1%	21.2%	0.80×	5.87
Lillestrom by 1	19.3%	17.0%	14.8%	1.15×	5.87
Sarpsborg FK by 2	11.1%	11.8%	13.7%	0.86×	8.51
Lillestrom by 2	10.4%	11.8%	9.1%	1.30×	8.51
Sarpsborg FK by 3+	6.2%	7.2%	14.5%	0.50×	13.92
Lillestrom by 3+	5.5%	7.2%	8.0%	0.89×	13.92