Sassuolo v AC Milan — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 3 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 7
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
10 – 2
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-0.25 – -0.29
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sassuolo win
25.2%
Draw
24.6%
AC Milan win
50.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sassuolo are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWDWLLLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 18.0 xG
conceded 14
from 15.8 xG
AC Milan are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLWLWWD last 10
scored 11
from 14.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.99–1.52 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.06–1.72 | 1-1 11% | 53% | 54% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sassuolo 2.25 xGAC Milan 0.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sassuolo attacking right
AC Milan attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Armand Lauriente |
| 6' |
Sassuolo |
M'Bala Nzola | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 16' |
Sassuolo |
Ulisses García | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | M'Bala Nzola |
| 17' |
 AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastian Walukiewicz |
| 26' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | M'Bala Nzola |
| 35' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 47' |
AC Milan |
Alexis Saelemaekers | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
AC Milan |
Zachary Athekame | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 49' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ulisses García |
| 50' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.95 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 54' |
Sassuolo |
M'Bala Nzola | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Woyo Coulibaly |
| 61' |
AC Milan |
Ardon Jashari | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Zachary Athekame |
| 69' |
Sassuolo |
Cristian Volpato | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luca Lipani |
| 75' |
Sassuolo |
M'Bala Nzola | 0.19 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 80' |
AC Milan |
Zachary Athekame | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Pulisic |
| 85' |
AC Milan |
Strahinja Pavlovic | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Zachary Athekame |
| 92' |
AC Milan |
Christian Pulisic | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
AC Milan
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strahinja Pavlovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Mike Maignan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Gabbia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrien Rabiot MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Estupiñán DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Ardon Jashari MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Rafael Leão FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Alexis Saelemaekers DMR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Youssouf Fofana MC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christopher Nkunku FW | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zachary Athekame Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| Christian Pulisic Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Santiago Giménez Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Fikayo Tomori DC | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuele Ricci Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristian Thorstvedt MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1.55 | 0.12 | 2.11 |
| Ulisses García DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.15 | 1.01 |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.93 |
| Ismaël Koné MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Stefano Turati GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Tarik Muharemovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| M'Bala Nzola FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.08 | 0.62 |
| Armand Lauriente FWL | 87 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.34 | 0.97 |
| Domenico Berardi FWR | 62 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.95 | 1.75 |
| Woyo Coulibaly Sub | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.50 |
| Nemanja Matic MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Luca Lipani Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.55 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Cristian Volpato Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Andrea Pinamonti Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alieu Fadera Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |