Sassuolo v AC Milan — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 11 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Sassuolo

13:00 UTC

AC Milan

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 797h before kick-off

Sassuolo win

30.6%

model 33.6%

Draw

23.3%

model 24.6%

AC Milan win

46.1%

model 41.8%

312346

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (555 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.5%
1-2 8.9%
0-1 8.4%
2-1 7.8%
1-0 7.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	55.8%	Under 2.5	44.2%
BTTS yes	58.7%	BTTS no	41.3%
Sassuolo 1+	74.5%	Sassuolo 2+	39.6%
AC Milan 1+	78.8%	AC Milan 2+	45.9%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.55. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

94/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Over 2.5 goals

Over/Under · usually 47%

57.7% fair odds 1.73

moderate signal · 1100 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

AC Milan (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 83%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 453 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

AC Milan carry the stronger rating, 1650 Elo against 1538.
AC Milan have created 1.40 xG a match over their last five while Sassuolo have allowed 1.58.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Away from home AC Milan average 0.90 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

AC Milan have an estimated 46.1% win probability, against 30.6% for Sassuolo and 23.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.37 for Sassuolo and 1.55 for AC Milan.

Why Sassuolo

Sassuolo have created 1.80 xG a match over their last five while AC Milan have allowed 1.50. At home Sassuolo average 1.73 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.37 to 1.55. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why AC Milan can win

AC Milan carry the stronger rating, 1650 Elo against 1538. AC Milan have created 1.40 xG a match over their last five while Sassuolo have allowed 1.58. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home AC Milan average 0.90 xG a match.

Key players

Sassuolo's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Kieron Bowie (0.49), Armand Lauriente (0.42), Domenico Berardi (0.39). AC Milan's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Gonçalo Ramos (0.55), Rafael Leão (0.43), Christian Pulisic (0.40).

Availability

1 of Sassuolo's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Sassuolo's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of AC Milan's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of AC Milan's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Sassuolo: 51% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.37 xG a match from set pieces. AC Milan: 51% possession, 12.4 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

AC Milan are the model's most likely outcome at 46.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.5%. Confidence 94/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Sassuolo are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LWDWLLLLWD last 10 scored 13 from 18.0 xG conceded 14 from 15.8 xG

AC Milan are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWDLLWLWWD last 10 scored 11 from 14.0 xG conceded 13 from 15.0 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	342542	1.37–1.55	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	342443	1.44–1.65	1-1 11%	60%	62%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to win	41.8%	43.8%	34.0%	1.29×	2.28
Sassuolo to win	33.6%	29.1%	39.4%	0.74×	3.44
Draw	24.6%	22.2%	26.8%	0.83×	4.51

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan & both teams score	21.7%	22.6%	13.3%	1.70×	4.43
AC Milan & not both score	20.1%	22.6%	20.8%	1.08×	4.43
Draw & both teams score	19.2%	17.8%	18.7%	0.95×	5.63
Sassuolo & both teams score	17.8%	17.8%	16.9%	1.05×	5.63
Sassuolo & not both score	15.8%	17.7%	22.6%	0.78×	5.64
Draw & not both score	5.4%	7.3%	8.2%	0.89×	13.72

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan & over 1.5	33.4%	33.2%	24.6%	1.35×	3.02
AC Milan & under 3.5	27.1%	25.5%	26.6%	0.96×	3.92
AC Milan & over 2.5	26.9%	25.5%	18.1%	1.41×	3.92
Sassuolo & over 1.5	26.2%	25.5%	29.0%	0.88×	3.92
Sassuolo & under 3.5	22.6%	21.5%	29.4%	0.73×	4.65
Sassuolo & over 2.5	21.2%	21.5%	22.5%	0.96×	4.65
Draw & over 1.5	19.2%	17.6%	18.7%	0.94×	5.69
Draw & under 2.5	16.9%	17.6%	19.9%	0.88×	5.69
Draw & under 3.5	16.9%	17.6%	19.9%	0.88×	5.69
AC Milan & under 2.5	14.9%	12.7%	16.0%	0.79×	7.86
AC Milan & over 3.5	14.7%	12.7%	7.4%	1.71×	7.86
Sassuolo & under 2.5	12.4%	12.7%	17.0%	0.75×	7.86
Sassuolo & over 3.5	11.0%	12.7%	10.1%	1.26×	7.87
AC Milan & under 1.5	8.4%	7.5%	9.5%	0.79×	13.40
Draw & over 2.5	7.7%	7.5%	6.9%	1.07×	13.41
Draw & over 3.5	7.7%	7.5%	6.9%	1.07×	13.41
Sassuolo & under 1.5	7.4%	7.5%	10.5%	0.71×	13.41
Draw & under 1.5	5.4%	7.5%	8.2%	0.91×	13.42

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (1UP)	58.9%	62.4%	51.1%	1.22×	1.60
Sassuolo (1UP)	51.9%	52.4%	54.7%	0.96×	1.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (2UP)	41.8%	46.5%	36.5%	1.28×	2.15
Sassuolo (2UP)	33.6%	30.6%	41.0%	0.75×	3.26

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to win 2nd half	38.8%	37.5%	29.5%	1.27×	2.67
2nd half drawn	33.3%	33.8%	35.9%	0.94×	2.96
Sassuolo to win 2nd half	27.8%	27.5%	34.7%	0.79×	3.64

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (+2.5)	94.6%	92.4%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
AC Milan (+1.5)	84.9%	82.4%	83.0%	0.99×	1.21
AC Milan (+0.5)	66.4%	68.9%	60.6%	1.14×	1.45
Sassuolo (+0.5)	58.2%	57.2%	66.0%	0.87×	1.75
AC Milan (-0.5)	41.8%	42.8%	34.0%	1.26×	2.33
Sassuolo (-0.5)	33.6%	31.1%	39.4%	0.79×	3.22
Sassuolo (-1.5)	15.1%	17.6%	17.0%	1.03×	5.67
Sassuolo (-2.5)	5.4%	7.6%	7.6%	1.01×	13.10

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to concede	74.5%	77.2%	71.1%	1.09×	1.30
AC Milan clean sheet	25.5%	22.8%	28.9%	0.79×	4.38

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan clean sheet in 1st half	55.0%	60.1%	58.8%	1.02×	1.66
AC Milan to concede in 1st half	45.0%	39.9%	41.2%	0.97×	2.51

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan under 6.5 corners	83.9%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
AC Milan under 5.5 corners	74.5%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
AC Milan over 2.5 corners	71.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
AC Milan under 4.5 corners	61.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
AC Milan over 3.5 corners	54.1%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
AC Milan under 3.5 corners	45.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
AC Milan over 4.5 corners	38.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
AC Milan under 2.5 corners	29.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
AC Milan over 5.5 corners	25.5%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
AC Milan over 6.5 corners	16.1%	18.6%	—	—	5.37

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan under 3.5 goals	92.8%	92.6%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
AC Milan under 2.5 goals	79.6%	75.4%	88.4%	0.85×	1.33
AC Milan over 0.5 goals	78.8%	75.3%	69.3%	1.09×	1.33
AC Milan under 1.5 goals	54.1%	52.0%	65.4%	0.80×	1.92
AC Milan over 1.5 goals	45.9%	48.0%	34.6%	1.39×	2.08
AC Milan under 0.5 goals	21.2%	24.7%	30.7%	0.80×	4.05
AC Milan over 2.5 goals	20.4%	24.6%	11.6%	2.12×	4.06
AC Milan over 3.5 goals	7.2%	7.4%	2.9%	2.53×	13.60

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan under 1.5 in 1st half	88.4%	87.7%	90.2%	0.97×	1.14
AC Milan under 0.5 in 1st half	55.9%	59.1%	59.0%	1.00×	1.69
AC Milan over 0.5 in 1st half	44.1%	40.9%	41.0%	1.00×	2.45
AC Milan over 1.5 in 1st half	11.6%	12.3%	9.8%	1.25×	8.11

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo (away no bet)	57.8%	59.0%	59.5%	0.99×	1.69
Draw (away no bet)	42.2%	41.0%	40.5%	1.01×	2.44

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan even goals	52.3%	52.4%	55.7%	0.94×	1.91
AC Milan odd goals	47.7%	47.6%	44.3%	1.07×	2.10

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.9%	81.7%	87.2%	0.94×	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.1%	18.3%	12.8%	1.43×	5.47

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	67.7%	65.2%	59.6%	1.09×	1.53
Both halves under 1.5 goals	32.3%	34.8%	40.4%	0.86×	2.87

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	59.0%	59.3%	52.8%	1.12×	1.69
AC Milan to score 2+ in a row	36.5%	37.3%	27.7%	1.35×	2.68
Sassuolo to score 2+ in a row	30.1%	33.8%	31.1%	1.09×	2.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.5%	21.7%	17.3%	1.26×	4.60
AC Milan to score 3+ in a row	12.7%	12.2%	7.7%	1.58×	8.20
Sassuolo to score 3+ in a row	9.1%	7.4%	9.7%	0.76×	13.55

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo corners (+3.5)	85.8%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
AC Milan corners (+3.5)	82.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Sassuolo corners (+2.5)	78.6%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
AC Milan corners (+2.5)	74.7%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Sassuolo corners (+1.5)	69.3%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
AC Milan corners (+1.5)	64.8%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Sassuolo corners (-1.5)	35.2%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
AC Milan corners (-1.5)	30.7%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Sassuolo corners (-2.5)	25.3%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
AC Milan corners (-2.5)	21.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.98
Sassuolo corners (-3.5)	17.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
AC Milan corners (-3.5)	14.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	54.8%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
9-11 corners	26.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	18.8%	22.7%	—	—	4.40

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	86.8%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	81.2%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	73.9%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	65.1%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	56.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	54.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	45.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	43.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	34.9%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 10.5 corners	26.1%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Over 11.5 corners	18.8%	19.3%	—	—	5.18
Over 12.5 corners	13.2%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.5%	11.6%	11.9%	0.98×	8.64
1-2	8.9%	7.3%	7.6%	0.96×	13.74
0-1	8.4%	7.3%	9.5%	0.77×	13.74
2-1	7.8%	7.3%	9.2%	0.79×	13.74
1-0	7.4%	7.3%	10.5%	0.69×	13.75
0-2	6.5%	7.3%	6.7%	1.09×	13.75
2-2	6.1%	7.3%	6.1%	1.20×	13.75
0-0	5.4%	7.3%	8.2%	0.89×	13.75
2-0	5.1%	7.3%	6.7%	1.09×	13.76
1-3	4.6%	1.8%	1.9%	0.95×	55.39
0-3	3.4%	1.8%	3.3%	0.55×	55.42
2-3	3.1%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.43
3-1	3.6%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.42
3-2	2.8%	1.8%	2.9%	0.62×	55.44
Any other score	3.4%	1.8%	2.8%	0.65×	55.42
0-4	1.3%	1.8%	1.0%	1.78×	55.48
1-4	1.8%	1.8%	0.8%	2.38×	55.46
2-4	1.2%	1.8%	0.1%	14.28×	55.48
3-0	2.3%	1.8%	3.4%	0.53×	55.45
3-3	1.4%	1.8%	0.9%	2.04×	55.47
4-1	1.2%	1.8%	1.1%	1.59×	55.48
3-4	0.6%	1.8%	0.3%	7.14×	55.49
4-0	0.8%	1.8%	1.6%	1.10×	55.49
4-2	0.9%	1.8%	0.1%	14.27×	55.49
4-3	0.5%	1.8%	0.3%	7.14×	55.50
4-4	0.2%	1.8%	0.3%	7.13×	55.50

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo leading at HT (DNB)	50.9%	55.0%	50.1%	1.10×	1.82
AC Milan leading at HT (DNB)	49.1%	45.0%	49.9%	0.90×	2.22

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo or AC Milan (12)	75.4%	77.8%	73.2%	1.06×	1.29
AC Milan or draw (X2)	66.4%	70.9%	60.6%	1.17×	1.41
Sassuolo or draw (1X)	58.2%	56.2%	66.0%	0.85×	1.78

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo or draw at HT	71.7%	71.4%	72.6%	0.98×	1.40
AC Milan or draw at HT	70.7%	71.4%	72.5%	0.98×	1.40
Sassuolo or AC Milan at HT	57.6%	58.2%	54.8%	1.06×	1.72

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan or draw (1UP)	66.4%	74.9%	66.3%	1.13×	1.34
Sassuolo or draw (1UP)	58.2%	63.9%	71.3%	0.90×	1.56

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan or draw in 2nd half	72.2%	72.5%	65.3%	1.11×	1.38
Sassuolo or AC Milan in 2nd half	66.7%	66.2%	64.1%	1.03×	1.51
Sassuolo or draw in 2nd half	61.2%	62.5%	70.5%	0.89×	1.60

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.6%	59.4%	64.4%	0.92×	1.68
Neither half drawn	38.4%	40.6%	35.6%	1.14×	2.46

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (DNB)	55.4%	63.0%	46.3%	1.36×	1.59
Sassuolo (DNB)	44.6%	37.0%	53.7%	0.69×	2.70

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to score first	50.3%	53.5%	44.2%	1.21×	1.87
Sassuolo to score first	44.3%	41.5%	47.7%	0.87×	2.41
No goal scored	5.4%	6.2%	8.2%	0.76×	16.12

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.7%	56.8%	48.6%	1.17×	1.76
Not both teams to score	41.3%	43.2%	51.4%	0.84×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	47.2%	45.3%	36.9%	1.23×	2.21
Not both score & under 2.5	32.7%	34.4%	41.0%	0.84×	2.91
Both score & under 2.5	11.5%	11.7%	11.9%	0.99×	8.54
Not both score & over 2.5	8.6%	8.7%	10.5%	0.83×	11.46

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	81.8%	81.2%	86.9%	0.93×	1.23
Both teams to score 2+	18.2%	18.8%	13.1%	1.43×	5.32

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	66.7%	69.4%	74.7%	0.93×	1.44
Both teams to score in 2nd half	33.3%	30.6%	25.3%	1.21×	3.27

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	53.5%	54.9%	63.1%	0.87×	1.82
Both score 2nd half only	26.7%	24.7%	20.5%	1.21×	4.05
Both score 1st half only	13.2%	11.6%	11.7%	0.99×	8.64
Both score in both halves	6.6%	6.5%	4.9%	1.31×	15.45

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.2%	83.1%	83.5%	1.00×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	19.8%	16.9%	16.5%	1.02×	5.92

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	57.1%	55.6%	51.8%	1.07×	1.80
A half without a goal	42.9%	44.4%	48.2%	0.92×	2.25

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.4%	45.9%	48.0%	0.96×	2.18
4-6 goals	30.5%	31.5%	23.5%	1.34×	3.17
0-1 goals	21.2%	22.7%	27.9%	0.82×	4.40
7+ goals	2.9%	2.0%	0.9%	2.21×	51.13

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to score exactly 1	32.9%	33.2%	34.8%	0.95×	3.01
AC Milan to score exactly 2	25.5%	27.0%	23.1%	1.17×	3.70
AC Milan to score exactly 0	21.2%	23.9%	30.7%	0.78×	4.18
AC Milan to score 3+	20.4%	23.9%	11.6%	2.06×	4.18

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo to score exactly 1	34.8%	30.6%	32.3%	0.95×	3.27
Sassuolo to score exactly 0	25.5%	27.0%	28.9%	0.94×	3.70
Sassuolo to score exactly 2	23.8%	23.0%	24.6%	0.93×	4.35
Sassuolo to score 3+	15.8%	18.5%	14.4%	1.28×	5.42

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.4%	41.8%	45.2%	0.92×	2.39
Sassuolo leading at HT	29.3%	28.6%	27.5%	1.04×	3.49
AC Milan leading at HT	28.3%	28.6%	27.4%	1.04×	3.50

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan -1: 1	58.2%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
AC Milan -1: X	21.0%	23.9%	—	—	4.18
AC Milan -1: 2	20.8%	23.9%	—	—	4.18

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (0:1)	66.4%	69.8%	60.6%	1.15×	1.43
Draw (0:1)	18.5%	18.3%	22.5%	0.82×	5.46
Sassuolo (0:1)	15.1%	18.2%	17.0%	1.07×	5.49

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (0:2)	84.9%	83.8%	83.0%	1.01×	1.19
Draw (0:2)	9.7%	7.2%	9.6%	0.75×	13.81
Sassuolo (0:2)	5.4%	7.1%	7.6%	0.94×	14.04

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (0:3)	94.6%	92.7%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	3.8%	2.3%	4.5%	0.51×	42.76
Sassuolo (0:3)	1.6%	2.3%	3.2%	0.73×	43.25

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (0:4)	98.4%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.2%	1.2%	2.3%	0.55×	80.74
Sassuolo (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	1.0%	1.22×	81.16

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo (1:0)	58.2%	57.4%	66.0%	0.87×	1.74
Draw (1:0)	21.0%	22.9%	19.9%	1.15×	4.37
AC Milan (1:0)	20.8%	22.9%	14.1%	1.62×	4.37

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo (2:0)	79.2%	77.9%	85.9%	0.91×	1.28
Draw (2:0)	12.5%	12.1%	8.5%	1.43×	8.26
AC Milan (2:0)	8.3%	6.6%	5.8%	1.14×	15.10

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	50.5%	50.5%	46.6%	1.08×	1.98
1st half highest scoring	25.9%	26.1%	26.8%	0.98×	3.83
Halves equal	23.6%	23.2%	26.8%	0.87×	4.31

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo to concede	78.8%	77.4%	69.3%	1.12×	1.29
Sassuolo clean sheet	21.2%	22.6%	30.7%	0.74×	4.42

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo clean sheet in 1st half	55.9%	59.0%	59.0%	1.00×	1.70
Sassuolo to concede in 1st half	44.1%	41.0%	41.0%	1.00×	2.44

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo under 6.5 corners	81.3%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Sassuolo over 2.5 corners	73.7%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Sassuolo under 5.5 corners	71.3%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Sassuolo under 4.5 corners	58.1%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Sassuolo over 3.5 corners	57.5%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Sassuolo under 3.5 corners	42.5%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Sassuolo over 4.5 corners	41.9%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Sassuolo over 5.5 corners	28.7%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Sassuolo under 2.5 corners	26.3%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Sassuolo over 6.5 corners	18.7%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo under 3.5 goals	95.0%	97.7%	95.5%	1.02×	1.02
Sassuolo under 2.5 goals	84.2%	82.5%	85.6%	0.96×	1.21
Sassuolo over 0.5 goals	74.5%	72.8%	71.1%	1.02×	1.37
Sassuolo under 1.5 goals	60.4%	62.5%	61.1%	1.02×	1.60
Sassuolo over 1.5 goals	39.7%	37.5%	38.9%	0.96×	2.67
Sassuolo under 0.5 goals	25.5%	27.2%	28.9%	0.94×	3.68
Sassuolo over 2.5 goals	15.8%	17.5%	14.4%	1.22×	5.71
Sassuolo over 3.5 goals	5.0%	2.3%	4.5%	0.51×	43.07

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo under 1.5 in 1st half	87.9%	87.8%	90.2%	0.97×	1.14
Sassuolo under 0.5 in 1st half	55.0%	59.9%	58.8%	1.02×	1.67
Sassuolo over 0.5 in 1st half	45.0%	40.1%	41.2%	0.97×	2.50
Sassuolo over 1.5 in 1st half	12.1%	12.2%	9.8%	1.24×	8.21

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (home no bet)	63.0%	61.5%	55.9%	1.10×	1.63
Draw (home no bet)	37.0%	38.5%	44.1%	0.87×	2.60

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo even goals	53.3%	50.3%	56.6%	0.89×	1.99
Sassuolo odd goals	46.7%	49.7%	43.4%	1.14×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.8%	30.4%	34.3%	0.89×	3.29
HT 1-0	18.4%	18.9%	18.3%	1.03×	5.28
HT 0-1	17.9%	18.9%	18.4%	1.03×	5.29
HT 1-1	10.7%	11.2%	10.5%	1.07×	8.95
HT 2-0	5.5%	7.7%	5.6%	1.38×	13.03
HT 0-2	5.2%	7.7%	5.4%	1.41×	13.03
Any other HT score	4.4%	2.5%	3.0%	0.83×	39.75
HT 1-2	3.1%	2.5%	2.5%	0.99×	39.82
HT 2-1	3.2%	2.5%	2.3%	1.11×	39.82
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.5%	0.6%	3.97×	39.95

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan at HT / AC Milan at FT	21.9%	21.4%	19.2%	1.12×	4.67
Sassuolo at HT / Sassuolo at FT	19.9%	16.8%	21.3%	0.79×	5.95
Draw at HT / AC Milan at FT	16.5%	16.8%	13.0%	1.29×	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.1%	12.0%	16.7%	0.72×	8.34
Draw at HT / Sassuolo at FT	11.8%	12.0%	15.8%	0.76×	8.36
Sassuolo at HT / Draw at FT	6.0%	6.6%	4.4%	1.48×	15.25
AC Milan at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.4%	5.9%	0.57×	29.32
Sassuolo at HT / AC Milan at FT	3.4%	3.4%	2.0%	1.69×	29.37
AC Milan at HT / Sassuolo at FT	1.9%	3.4%	2.5%	1.35×	29.43

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to score last	50.3%	53.5%	43.6%	1.23×	1.87
Sassuolo to score last	44.3%	40.4%	48.4%	0.84×	2.47
No goal scored	5.4%	6.2%	8.2%	0.76×	16.12

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.6%	93.8%	91.8%	1.02×	1.07
AC Milan to lead by 1 at any time	58.9%	59.7%	51.1%	1.17×	1.68
Sassuolo to lead by 1 at any time	51.9%	50.9%	54.7%	0.93×	1.96
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.9%	46.2%	42.6%	1.08×	2.17
AC Milan to lead by 2 at any time	27.7%	26.0%	20.1%	1.29×	3.85
Sassuolo to lead by 2 at any time	21.5%	19.8%	22.9%	0.87×	5.06
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.8%	17.7%	14.5%	1.22×	5.66
AC Milan to lead by 3 at any time	10.6%	11.3%	6.3%	1.79×	8.86
Sassuolo to lead by 3 at any time	7.2%	7.0%	8.3%	0.85×	14.20

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo most corners	46.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
AC Milan most corners	41.7%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.0%	87.9%	89.1%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.5%	78.9%	80.7%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	75.9%	78.8%	71.3%	1.10×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.2%	73.6%	69.4%	1.06×	1.36
2-4 goals	61.7%	62.3%	61.0%	1.02×	1.61
1-3 goals	61.2%	62.3%	67.7%	0.92×	1.61
3-6 goals	52.9%	52.3%	46.5%	1.13×	1.91
3-5 goals	48.2%	48.0%	44.6%	1.08×	2.08
2-3 goals	45.4%	48.0%	48.0%	1.00×	2.08
1-2 goals	38.8%	38.9%	44.7%	0.87×	2.57
3-4 goals	38.7%	38.9%	36.1%	1.08×	2.57
4-6 goals	30.5%	34.1%	23.5%	1.45×	2.94
4-5 goals	25.8%	30.4%	21.6%	1.41×	3.29
5-6 goals	14.2%	13.5%	10.5%	1.29×	7.40
7+ goals	2.9%	2.0%	0.9%	2.30×	49.16

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan never behind	42.7%	50.7%	45.3%	1.12×	1.97
Sassuolo never behind	35.7%	45.3%	48.9%	0.93×	2.21

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.1%	51.8%	0.97×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.9%	48.2%	1.03×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.7%	51.9%	56.8%	0.91×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.3%	48.1%	43.2%	1.11×	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.5%	51.7%	51.4%	1.01×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.5%	48.3%	48.6%	0.99×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.6%	93.0%	91.8%	1.01×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.4%	92.9%	97.2%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	82.9%	81.0%	88.8%	0.91×	1.24
Over 1.5 goals	78.8%	78.3%	72.1%	1.09×	1.28
Under 3.5 goals	66.6%	65.5%	75.8%	0.86×	1.53
Over 2.5 goals	55.8%	57.7%	47.2%	1.22×	1.73
Under 2.5 goals	44.2%	42.3%	52.8%	0.80×	2.36
Over 3.5 goals	33.4%	34.5%	24.2%	1.42×	2.90
Under 1.5 goals	21.2%	21.7%	27.9%	0.78×	4.61
Over 4.5 goals	17.1%	19.0%	11.2%	1.69×	5.26
Over 5.5 goals	7.6%	7.1%	2.8%	2.54×	14.18
Under 0.5 goals	5.4%	7.0%	8.2%	0.86×	14.22

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.9%	97.2%	99.1%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.6%	92.7%	97.0%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	79.6%	76.6%	87.1%	0.88×	1.31
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	72.5%	72.1%	62.9%	1.15×	1.39
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	57.0%	55.3%	68.5%	0.81×	1.81
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	43.0%	44.7%	31.5%	1.42×	2.24
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	27.5%	27.9%	37.1%	0.75×	3.58
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	20.4%	23.4%	12.9%	1.81×	4.27
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.4%	7.3%	3.0%	2.40×	13.71
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.1%	2.8%	0.9%	3.09×	35.97

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.4%	88.1%	91.9%	0.96×	1.14
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.2%	68.6%	65.7%	1.05×	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.0%	68.6%	70.8%	0.97×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	33.0%	31.4%	29.2%	1.08×	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.8%	31.4%	34.3%	0.91×	3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.6%	11.9%	8.1%	1.47×	8.41

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.4%	82.1%	77.9%	1.05×	1.22
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	74.7%	76.4%	82.3%	0.93×	1.31
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	48.2%	51.9%	56.8%	0.91×	1.93
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	51.8%	48.1%	43.2%	1.12×	2.08
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	25.3%	23.6%	17.7%	1.34×	4.24
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.6%	17.9%	22.1%	0.81×	5.58

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo not to score in both halves	75.9%	78.0%	76.3%	1.02×	1.28
AC Milan not to score in both halves	72.6%	70.4%	78.8%	0.89×	1.42
AC Milan to score in both halves	27.4%	29.6%	21.2%	1.40×	3.38
Sassuolo to score in both halves	24.1%	22.0%	23.7%	0.93×	4.55

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	58.7%	57.9%	48.6%	1.19×	1.73
Only AC Milan scores	20.1%	22.7%	20.8%	1.09×	4.40
Only Sassuolo scores	15.8%	16.3%	22.6%	0.72×	6.12
Neither team scores	5.4%	6.6%	8.2%	0.81×	15.10

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.0%	21.6%	25.0%	0.86×	4.64
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	21.5%	23.1%	0.93×	4.64
Exactly 4 goals	16.3%	18.5%	13.1%	1.41×	5.39
Exactly 1 goals	15.8%	18.5%	19.8%	0.94×	5.39
Exactly 5 goals	9.5%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.11
6 or more goals	7.6%	7.6%	2.8%	2.74×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	5.4%	7.6%	8.2%	0.93×	13.16

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	51.8%	47.4%	43.2%	1.10×	2.11
1 goal in 2nd half	30.6%	33.1%	34.8%	0.95×	3.02
No goals in 2nd half	17.6%	18.4%	22.1%	0.83×	5.45

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo not to win both halves	91.9%	93.4%	90.3%	1.03×	1.07
AC Milan not to win both halves	89.0%	87.6%	91.4%	0.96×	1.14
AC Milan to win both halves	11.0%	12.4%	8.6%	1.44×	8.07
Sassuolo to win both halves	8.1%	6.6%	9.7%	0.68×	15.04

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to win either half	56.2%	59.4%	48.4%	1.23×	1.68
Sassuolo to win neither half	51.0%	53.9%	47.5%	1.14×	1.86
Sassuolo to win either half	49.0%	46.1%	52.5%	0.88×	2.17
AC Milan to win neither half	43.8%	40.6%	51.6%	0.79×	2.46

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo not to win to nil	84.2%	83.3%	77.4%	1.08×	1.20
AC Milan not to win to nil	79.9%	77.3%	79.2%	0.98×	1.29
AC Milan to win to nil	20.1%	22.7%	20.8%	1.09×	4.40
Sassuolo to win to nil	15.8%	16.7%	22.6%	0.74×	6.00

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.6%	23.8%	26.8%	0.89×	4.21
AC Milan by 1	21.0%	23.7%	19.9%	1.19×	4.22
Sassuolo by 1	18.5%	17.0%	22.5%	0.76×	5.89
AC Milan by 2	12.5%	11.9%	8.5%	1.40×	8.44
Sassuolo by 2	9.7%	7.1%	9.6%	0.74×	14.05
AC Milan by 3+	8.3%	7.1%	5.8%	1.22×	14.08
Sassuolo by 3+	5.4%	7.1%	7.6%	0.93×	14.15