Sassuolo v Atalanta — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 26
On target
5 – 7
Shots in box
6 – 20
xG per shot
0.26 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
1.38 – 0.19
Goals − xG
+0.19 – -2.75
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sassuolo win
20.5%
Draw
25.5%
Atalanta win
54.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sassuolo are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWDWLLLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 18.0 xG
conceded 14
from 15.8 xG
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLDWLDWWL last 10
scored 11
from 11.9 xG
conceded 12
from 17.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.90–1.62 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.39–1.76 | 1-1 10% | 61% | 62% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sassuolo 1.81 xGAtalanta 3.75 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sassuolo attacking right
Atalanta attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mario Pasalic |
| 9' |
 Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.23 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Ulisses García |
| 10' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 17' |
Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 22' |
Sassuolo |
Ismaël Koné | 0.73 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Armand Lauriente |
| 25' |
Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lazar Samardzic |
| 25' |
Atalanta |
Sead Kolasinac | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Raoul Bellanova |
| 31' |
Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Raoul Bellanova |
| 32' |
Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicola Zalewski |
| 34' |
Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Giorgio Scalvini |
| 38' |
Atalanta |
Raoul Bellanova | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Lorenzo Bernasconi |
| 46' |
Sassuolo |
Tarik Muharemovic | 0.38 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 51' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Davide Zappacosta |
| 54' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kamaldeen Sulemana |
| 57' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arijanet Muric |
| 62' |
Atalanta |
Kamaldeen Sulemana | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Lazar Samardzic |
| 63' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 64' |
Atalanta |
Giorgio Scalvini | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Nicola Zalewski |
| 68' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Armand Lauriente |
| 71' |
Atalanta |
Kamaldeen Sulemana | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Pasalic |
| 71' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.52 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Marten de Roon |
| 77' |
Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nikola Krstovic |
| 79' |
Atalanta |
Giorgio Scalvini | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Pasalic |
| 79' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.53 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Davide Zappacosta |
| 86' |
Atalanta |
Yunus Musah | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lazar Samardzic |
| 87' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Davide Zappacosta |
| 87' |
Atalanta |
Yunus Musah | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Davide Zappacosta |
| 91' |
Atalanta |
Giorgio Scalvini | 0.51 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Mario Pasalic |
| 91' |
Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Davide Zappacosta |
| 92' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marten de Roon |
| 94' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Krstovic |
Players
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazar Samardzic AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 1.10 | 0.11 | 1.34 |
| Giorgio Scalvini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.05 | 1.63 |
| Sead Kolasinac DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 1.47 |
| Marten de Roon MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 2.25 |
| Mario Pasalic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.97 | 2.36 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Berat Gjimshiti DC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Nicola Zalewski AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.44 | 0.98 |
| Gianluca Scamacca FW | 48 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Raoul Bellanova DMR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.54 |
| Lorenzo Bernasconi DML | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.54 |
| Nikola Krstovic Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.81 | 0.06 | 0.87 |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.80 |
| Davide Zappacosta Sub | 42 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0.11 | 1.20 | 1.97 |
| Yunus Musah Sub | 21 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Isak Hien Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismaël Koné MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Kristian Thorstvedt MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Tarik Muharemovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ulisses García DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Woyo Coulibaly DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Nemanja Matic MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Domenico Berardi FWR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.74 | 0.36 |
| Armand Lauriente FWL | 75 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 0.38 |
| Andrea Pinamonti FW | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| M'Bala Nzola Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Lipani Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Edoardo Iannoni Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alieu Fadera Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josh Doig Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |