Sassuolo v Como — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 17 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 12
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
6 – 5
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.22 – 0.19
Goals − xG
+0.65 – +0.41
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sassuolo win
17.9%
Draw
21.2%
Como win
60.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sassuolo are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WLWDWLLLLW last 10
scored 13
from 16.6 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.87–1.85 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.99–1.84 | 0-1 11% | 54% | 53% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sassuolo 1.35 xGComo 0.59 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sassuolo attacking right
Como attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | M'Bala Nzola |
| 4' |
 Como |
Nico Paz | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Maxence Caqueret |
| 11' |
Sassuolo |
Woyo Coulibaly | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 24' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Álvaro Morata |
| 30' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ivan Smolcic |
| 31' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 33' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacobo Ramón |
| 36' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alberto Moreno |
| 41' |
Sassuolo |
Cristian Volpato | 0.20 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | M'Bala Nzola |
| 43' |
Sassuolo |
M'Bala Nzola | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Armand Lauriente |
| 46' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Goal | Ivan Smolcic |
| 51' |
Sassuolo |
M'Bala Nzola | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Stefano Turati |
| 56' |
Sassuolo |
Cristian Volpato | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 59' |
Sassuolo |
Tarik Muharemovic | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 66' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.16 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Máximo Perrone |
| 71' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 72' |
Como |
Máximo Perrone | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
Como |
Marc-Oliver Kempf | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nico Paz |
| 87' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tarik Muharemovic |
| 90' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nico Paz |
Players
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Paz AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| Jacobo Ramón DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Alberto Moreno DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Álvaro Morata FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Lucas Da Cunha DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Assane Diao AMR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ivan Smolcic DR | 48 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| Martin Baturina AML | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Maxence Caqueret DMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Tasos Douvikas Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Máximo Perrone Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| Mergim Vojvoda Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.25 |
| Jesús Rodriguez Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolas Kühn Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armand Lauriente FWL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.57 | 0.85 |
| Kristian Thorstvedt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.65 |
| Tarik Muharemovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Woyo Coulibaly DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Ismaël Koné MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Stefano Turati GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nemanja Matic MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| M'Bala Nzola FW | 78 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.54 | 0.32 | 0.86 |
| Cristian Volpato FWR | 66 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Alieu Fadera Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrea Pinamonti Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Luca Lipani Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |