Sassuolo v Fiorentina — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 6 December 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 9
On target
5 – 1
Shots in box
9 – 5
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.92 – 0.89
Goals − xG
+1.36 – -0.21
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sassuolo win
44.5%
Draw
29.9%
Fiorentina win
25.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sassuolo are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWDWLLLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 18.0 xG
conceded 14
from 15.8 xG
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLDWDLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 15
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.48–1.08 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.47–1.40 | 1-1 12% | 55% | 58% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sassuolo 1.64 xGFiorentina 1.21 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sassuolo attacking right
Fiorentina attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rolando Mandragora |
| 8' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 13' |
 Sassuolo |
Cristian Volpato | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Tarik Muharemovic |
| 14' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rolando Mandragora |
| 19' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 23' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Andrea Pinamonti |
| 24' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 25' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sebastian Walukiewicz |
| 27' |
Sassuolo |
Tarik Muharemovic | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cristian Volpato |
| 33' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dodô |
| 43' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 44' |
Sassuolo |
Tarik Muharemovic | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nemanja Matic |
| 45' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nemanja Matic |
| 45' |
Sassuolo |
Tarik Muharemovic | 0.79 | From Corner | — | Goal | Armand Lauriente |
| 50' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 54' |
Fiorentina |
Pablo Marí | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pietro Comuzzo |
| 59' |
Sassuolo |
Walid Cheddira | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 64' |
Sassuolo |
Ismaël Koné | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Cristian Volpato |
| 75' |
Fiorentina |
Cher Ndour | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Dodô |
| 86' |
Fiorentina |
Niccolò Fortini | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolando Mandragora MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.81 | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| Moise Kean FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Pablo Marí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Albert Gudmundsson FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Pietro Comuzzo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| Dodô DMR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| Luca Ranieri DC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Fabiano Parisi DML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Nicolo Fagioli MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| Simon Sohm MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cher Ndour Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Niccolò Fortini Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Roberto Piccoli Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mattia Viti Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Kouamé Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Muharemovic DC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.82 | 0.01 | 0.16 |
| Ismaël Koné MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nemanja Matic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.28 |
| Kristian Thorstvedt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.54 |
| Josh Doig DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Cristian Volpato FWR | 82 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz DR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| Armand Lauriente FWL | 57 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.84 | 0.21 |
| Andrea Pinamonti FW | 57 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| Walid Cheddira Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Alieu Fadera Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Woyo Coulibaly Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicholas Pierini Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |