Sassuolo v Internazionale — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 8 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 23
On target
1 – 9
Shots in box
5 – 17
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.78
Goals − xG
-0.73 – +2.22
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sassuolo win
13.0%
Draw
18.4%
Internazionale win
68.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sassuolo are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLLLWDWLDL last 10
scored 15
from 18.8 xG
conceded 20
from 18.9 xG
Internazionale have scored 28 from 28.3 expected and conceded 13 from 12.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDDWWWWDWW last 10
scored 28
from 28.3 xG
conceded 13
from 12.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.85–2.23 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.93–2.25 | 0-2 11% | 61% | 54% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sassuolo 0.73 xGInternazionale 2.78 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sassuolo attacking right
Internazionale attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Sassuolo |
Ismaël Koné | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 4' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 8' |
 Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Thuram |
| 8' |
Internazionale |
Luis Henrique | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Piotr Zielinski |
| 10' |
Internazionale |
Yann Bisseck | 0.28 | From Corner | — | Goal | Federico Dimarco |
| 12' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
Internazionale |
Yann Bisseck | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Petar Sucic |
| 14' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 27' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Federico Dimarco |
| 36' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Piotr Zielinski |
| 37' |
Internazionale |
Piotr Zielinski | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lautaro Martínez |
| 45' |
Sassuolo |
Jay Idzes | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ismaël Koné |
| 48' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yann Bisseck |
| 48' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lautaro Martínez |
| 49' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 52' |
Internazionale |
Manuel Akanji | 0.48 | From Corner | — | Goal | Federico Dimarco |
| 57' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Petar Sucic |
| 61' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 64' |
Internazionale |
Davide Frattesi | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lautaro Martínez |
| 67' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 68' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yann Bisseck |
| 68' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
Internazionale |
Petar Sucic | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Henrique |
| 86' |
Sassuolo |
Tarik Muharemovic | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Internazionale |
Luis Henrique | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 89' |
Internazionale |
Ange-Yoan Bonny | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andy Diouf |
| 90' |
Internazionale |
Manuel Akanji | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Andy Diouf |
Players
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yann Bisseck DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.68 | 0.19 | 0.96 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Federico Dimarco DML | 90 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0.14 | 1.16 | 1.26 |
| Luis Henrique DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.73 |
| Petar Sucic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.43 | 1.06 |
| Yann Sommer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Marcus Thuram FW | 78 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.02 | 0.60 |
| Lautaro Martínez FW | 78 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.21 | 0.58 |
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 1.01 |
| Piotr Zielinski MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| Alessandro Bastoni DC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Davide Frattesi Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Matteo Darmian Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Andy Diouf Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Francesco Pio Esposito Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismaël Koné MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.01 | 0.38 |
| Tarik Muharemovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Kristian Thorstvedt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Andrea Pinamonti FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Josh Doig DL | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Domenico Berardi FWR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Armand Lauriente FWL | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| Nemanja Matic MC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Woyo Coulibaly Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Lipani Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ulisses García Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| M'Bala Nzola Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |