Sassuolo v Juventus — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 6 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 17
On target
2 – 10
Shots in box
2 – 12
xG per shot
0.03 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.20 – +0.09
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sassuolo win
28.1%
Draw
31.7%
Juventus win
40.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sassuolo are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWDWLLLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 18.0 xG
conceded 14
from 15.8 xG
Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWDDWLDWWD last 10
scored 11
from 18.5 xG
conceded 6
from 6.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.06–1.31 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.01–1.61 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 51% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sassuolo 0.20 xGJuventus 2.91 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sassuolo attacking right
Juventus attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Sassuolo |
Sebastian Walukiewicz | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 3' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nemanja Matic |
| 8' |
 Juventus |
Andrea Cambiaso | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 10' |
Sassuolo |
Edoardo Iannoni | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 11' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jonathan Christian David |
| 14' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Sassuolo |
Tarik Muharemovic | 0.00 | Open Play | — | Own Goal | — |
| 23' |
Juventus |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 28' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 30' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jonathan Christian David |
| 33' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 39' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kephren Thuram |
| 47' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Christian David |
| 51' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 58' |
Juventus |
Fabio Miretti | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Christian David |
| 61' |
Juventus |
Fabio Miretti | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jonathan Christian David |
| 62' |
Juventus |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.89 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 65' |
Juventus |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jonathan Christian David |
| 83' |
Sassuolo |
Luca Lipani | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alieu Fadera |
| 83' |
Sassuolo |
Nicholas Pierini | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 85' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nicholas Pierini |
| 87' |
Juventus |
João Mário | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kephren Thuram |
Players
Juventus
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabio Miretti AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Kephren Thuram MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.12 | 0.64 |
| Manuel Locatelli MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Bremer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Teun Koopmeiners DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.58 |
| Michele Di Gregorio GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Kenan Yildiz AMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Andrea Cambiaso DML | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| Jonathan Christian David FW | 78 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1.52 | 0.69 | 2.51 |
| Weston McKennie DMR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.81 |
| João Mário Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Loïs Openda Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vasilije Adzic Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Juan Cabal Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Edon Zhegrova Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Walukiewicz DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrea Pinamonti FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josh Doig DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ismaël Koné MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tarik Muharemovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Edoardo Iannoni MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Armand Lauriente FWL | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Nemanja Matic MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Alieu Fadera Sub | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Kristian Thorstvedt FWR | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Nicholas Pierini Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Luca Lipani Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aster Vranckx Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cas Odenthal Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |