Sassuolo v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 17 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 11
On target
6 – 6
Shots in box
12 – 9
xG per shot
0.20 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.22 – 0.21
Goals − xG
-1.05 – +1.70
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sassuolo win
50.6%
Draw
26.1%
Lecce win
23.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sassuolo are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWDWLLLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 18.0 xG
conceded 14
from 15.8 xG
Lecce are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 9.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDWLWWWLL last 10
scored 9
from 13.1 xG
conceded 12
from 21.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.40–0.85 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.65–1.02 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 52% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sassuolo 3.05 xGLecce 1.30 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sassuolo attacking right
Lecce attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Sassuolo |
Ismaël Koné | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 1' |
 Lecce |
Walid Cheddira | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antonino Gallo |
| 6' |
Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ylber Ramadani |
| 10' |
Sassuolo |
Ismaël Koné | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 13' |
Lecce |
Walid Cheddira | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 19' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pedro Felipe |
| 22' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ulisses García |
| 24' |
Lecce |
Walid Cheddira | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Goal | Lameck Banda |
| 31' |
Lecce |
Walid Cheddira | 0.21 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Danilo Veiga |
| 36' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Walid Cheddira |
| 38' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ismaël Koné |
| 42' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Lecce |
Ylber Ramadani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Sassuolo |
Woyo Coulibaly | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ulisses García |
| 54' |
Sassuolo |
M'Bala Nzola | 0.51 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 56' |
Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lassana Coulibaly |
| 59' |
Sassuolo |
M'Bala Nzola | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 81' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.60 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ulisses García |
| 81' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Luca Lipani |
| 85' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.12 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Ulisses García |
| 86' |
Lecce |
Francesco Camarda | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.23 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 94' |
Lecce |
Konan N’Dri | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
Sassuolo |
Cristian Volpato | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Darryl Bakola |
| 95' |
Lecce |
Nikola Stulic | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Omri Gandelman |
Players
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonino Gallo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| Oumar Ngom DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jamil Siebert DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Tiago Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Lassana Coulibaly AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Ylber Ramadani DMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| Danilo Veiga DR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| Walid Cheddira FW | 82 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.68 | 0.07 | 0.57 |
| Santiago Pierotti AMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Lameck Banda AML | 65 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.04 | 0.30 |
| Gaby Jean Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omri Gandelman Sub | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Francesco Camarda Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Nikola Stulic Sub | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Konan N’Dri Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armand Lauriente FWL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 1.01 |
| Kristian Thorstvedt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| Woyo Coulibaly DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Ulisses García DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.79 | 1.39 |
| Tarik Muharemovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefano Turati GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Pedro Felipe DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.88 |
| Ismaël Koné MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.04 | 0.61 |
| Domenico Berardi FWR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| M'Bala Nzola FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Nemanja Matic MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Andrea Pinamonti Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.94 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Luca Lipani Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.36 |
| Cristian Volpato Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Darryl Bakola Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.53 |
| Christian Frangella Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |