Sassuolo v Pisa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 24 November 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 10
On target
7 – 3
Shots in box
14 – 10
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.91
Goals − xG
-0.21 – +0.61
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sassuolo win
50.8%
Draw
30.0%
Pisa win
19.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sassuolo are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWDWLLLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 18.0 xG
conceded 14
from 15.8 xG
Pisa are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 7.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 11.2 xG
conceded 23
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.50–0.85 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.33–1.26 | 1-1 13% | 48% | 53% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sassuolo 2.21 xGPisa 1.39 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sassuolo attacking right
Pisa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Pisa |
M'Bala Nzola | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 5' |
 Sassuolo |
Nemanja Matic | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 14' |
Pisa |
Gabriele Piccinini | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Samuele Angori |
| 15' |
Pisa |
Mehdi Leris | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Idrissa Touré |
| 16' |
Pisa |
Antonio Caracciolo | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Samuele Angori |
| 18' |
Pisa |
Matteo Tramoni | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mehdi Leris |
| 22' |
Pisa |
Matteo Tramoni | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alieu Fadera |
| 31' |
Sassuolo |
Alieu Fadera | 0.16 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 34' |
Sassuolo |
Tarik Muharemovic | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alieu Fadera |
| 39' |
Pisa |
Antonio Caracciolo | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Sassuolo |
Alieu Fadera | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nemanja Matic |
| 46' |
Sassuolo |
Fali Candé | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 51' |
Pisa |
Mehdi Leris | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.68 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ismaël Koné |
| 55' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 60' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 61' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 61' |
Sassuolo |
Woyo Coulibaly | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 63' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Pisa |
Henrik Meister | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Stefano Moreo |
| 67' |
Sassuolo |
Ismaël Koné | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nemanja Matic |
| 69' |
Sassuolo |
Woyo Coulibaly | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 80' |
Pisa |
Henrik Meister | 0.16 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Stefano Moreo |
| 82' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 85' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 86' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 88' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Woyo Coulibaly |
| 90' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 92' |
Sassuolo |
Josh Doig | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Cristian Volpato |
| 94' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.56 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Cristian Volpato |
Players
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Pinamonti FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.94 | 0.00 | 1.06 |
| Kristian Thorstvedt MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.66 | 0.33 | 1.85 |
| Domenico Berardi FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 1.24 |
| Tarik Muharemovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.93 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Nemanja Matic MC | 89 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1.09 |
| Ismaël Koné MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.68 | 0.87 |
| Fali Candé DL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Alieu Fadera FWL | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz DR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Woyo Coulibaly Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.96 |
| Armand Lauriente Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| Josh Doig Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Luca Lipani Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Cristian Volpato Sub | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0.64 |
Pisa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Caracciolo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mehdi Leris ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| Gabriele Piccinini MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrian Semper GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Simone Canestrelli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Idrissa Touré MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Michel Aebischer MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Samuele Angori DL | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| M'Bala Nzola FW | 59 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Matteo Tramoni FW | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Arturo Calabresi DR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Raúl Albiol Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Henrik Meister Sub | 31 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Stefano Moreo Sub | 31 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Malthe Højholt Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Isak Vural Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |