Sassuolo v Torino — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 August 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 10
On target
7 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 8
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.34
Goals − xG
+0.45 – -0.50
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sassuolo win
48.5%
Draw
24.6%
Torino win
26.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sassuolo are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWDWLLLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 18.0 xG
conceded 14
from 15.8 xG
Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLWLDLLW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 15
from 17.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.60–1.12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.64–1.36 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 60% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sassuolo 1.55 xGTorino 1.50 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sassuolo attacking right
Torino attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Sassuolo |
Simone Cinquegrano | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Josh Doig |
| 6' |
 Torino |
Che Adams | 0.26 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 10' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Vasilije Adzic |
| 10' |
Sassuolo |
Vasilije Adzic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Darryl Bakola |
| 12' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 17' |
Sassuolo |
Cristian Volpato | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nemanja Matic |
| 18' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Darryl Bakola |
| 23' |
Sassuolo |
Kieron Bowie | 0.09 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cristian Volpato |
| 27' |
Sassuolo |
Kieron Bowie | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Darryl Bakola |
| 27' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 30' |
Torino |
Gvidas Gineitis | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Che Adams |
| 31' |
Sassuolo |
Cristian Volpato | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Vasilije Adzic |
| 37' |
Sassuolo |
Kieron Bowie | 0.58 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 40' |
Torino |
Saúl Coco | 0.34 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Kian Fitz-Jim |
| 46' |
Torino |
Pietro Comuzzo | 0.35 | Open Play | — | Goal | Alessio Cacciamani |
| 47' |
Sassuolo |
Cristian Volpato | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vasilije Adzic |
| 49' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cristian Volpato |
| 51' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kieron Bowie |
| 54' |
Sassuolo |
Simone Cinquegrano | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cristian Volpato |
| 56' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Niccolò Fortini |
| 57' |
Torino |
Alessio Cacciamani | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Sassuolo |
Nemanja Matic | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vasilije Adzic |
| 64' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 77' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.10 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | Fedde Leysen |
| 82' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 92' |
Torino |
Kian Fitz-Jim | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Saúl Coco |
| 93' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 93' |
Torino |
Zakaria Aboukhlal | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pietro Comuzzo |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pietro Comuzzo DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.04 | 0.48 |
| Saúl Coco DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.02 | 0.57 |
| Nikola Vlasic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.26 | 0.99 |
| Alessio Cacciamani DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.35 | 0.70 |
| Kian Fitz-Jim MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.34 | 0.57 |
| Diego Mascardi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Che Adams FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 0.46 |
| Giovanni Simeone FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Niccolò Fortini DR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.55 |
| Gvidas Gineitis MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Eray Cömert DC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Emirhan Ilkhan Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ardian Ismajli Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zakaria Aboukhlal Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Sandro Kulenovic Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Duván Zapata Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armand Lauriente FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.58 | 1.08 |
| Simone Cinquegrano DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Nemanja Matic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.26 |
| Darryl Bakola MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.45 |
| Fedde Leysen DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kieron Bowie FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.73 | 0.06 | 0.70 |
| Josh Doig DL | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.64 |
| Cristian Volpato FWR | 63 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| Vasilije Adzic MC | 63 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| Kristian Thorstvedt Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Benjamín Domínguez Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rafael Obrador Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Domenico Berardi Sub | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| Luca Lipani Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |