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SC Cambuur v PSV Eindhoven — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · NED-Eredivisie · 2627

Eredivisie results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
SC Cambuur win
4.5%
model 3.4%
Draw
6.9%
model 6.8%
PSV Eindhoven win
88.6%
model 89.8%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (6 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 0-4 7.4%
  2. 1-4 7.1%
  3. 0-3 6.9%
  4. 1-3 6.7%
  5. 0-5 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.589.4% Under 2.510.6%
BTTS yes61.2% BTTS no38.8%
SC Cambuur 1+61.8% SC Cambuur 2+25.0%
PSV Eindhoven 1+98.6% PSV Eindhoven 2+92.7%

Expected goals 0.96 – 4.29. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
75/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
93%
★ Best pick
Over 3.5 goals
Over/Under · usually 38%
77.7% fair odds 1.29
strong signal · 1766 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
SC Cambuur not to score in both halves
Score both halves
84.2% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 828 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger rating, 1814 Elo against 1518.
  • Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

PSV Eindhoven have an estimated 88.6% win probability, against 6.9% for the draw and 4.5% for SC Cambuur. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.96 for SC Cambuur and 4.29 for PSV Eindhoven.

Why SC Cambuur

Nothing in the data singles out SC Cambuur.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 6.9%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why PSV Eindhoven can win

PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger rating, 1814 Elo against 1518. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for SC Cambuur, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for PSV Eindhoven, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

SC Cambuur: 53% possession, 15.2 shots a match, 16.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. PSV Eindhoven: 63% possession, 21.6 shots a match, 7.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

PSV Eindhoven are the model's most likely outcome at 88.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-4 at 7.4%. Confidence 75/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 0.96–4.29 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.07–6.22 1-6 6% 97% 66%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven to win 96.4% 96.5% 30.1% 3.20× 1.04
Draw 2.5% 5.0% 25.6% 0.19× 20.13
SC Cambuur to win 1.2% 4.7% 44.4% 0.11× 21.37
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven & both teams score 62.1% 61.7% 17.2% 3.58× 1.62
PSV Eindhoven & not both score 34.2% 29.6% 13.1% 2.26× 3.37
Draw & both teams score 2.3% 4.8% 22.2% 0.22× 20.62
SC Cambuur & both teams score 1.1% 4.8% 21.2% 0.23× 20.66
SC Cambuur & not both score 0.1% 4.8% 23.4% 0.21× 20.69
Draw & not both score 0.1% 4.8% 3.5% 1.38× 20.69
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven & over 1.5 95.9% 96.1% 26.2% 3.67× 1.04
PSV Eindhoven & over 2.5 94.5% 93.0% 20.4% 4.56× 1.08
PSV Eindhoven & over 3.5 89.9% 87.2% 10.4% 8.43× 1.15
PSV Eindhoven & under 3.5 6.5% 7.9% 19.9% 0.40× 12.63
Draw & over 1.5 2.3% 4.8% 22.2% 0.22× 20.82
Draw & over 2.5 1.8% 4.8% 10.7% 0.45× 20.83
Draw & over 3.5 1.8% 4.8% 10.7% 0.45× 20.83
PSV Eindhoven & under 2.5 1.9% 4.8% 9.9% 0.49× 20.83
SC Cambuur & over 1.5 1.1% 4.8% 36.2% 0.13× 20.83
SC Cambuur & over 2.5 1.1% 4.8% 28.9% 0.17× 20.83
SC Cambuur & over 3.5 0.8% 4.8% 17.0% 0.28× 20.83
SC Cambuur & under 3.5 0.4% 4.8% 27.5% 0.17× 20.84
Draw & under 2.5 0.7% 4.8% 15.1% 0.32× 20.83
Draw & under 3.5 0.7% 4.8% 15.1% 0.32× 20.83
PSV Eindhoven & under 1.5 0.4% 4.8% 4.1% 1.17× 20.83
SC Cambuur & under 1.5 0.0% 4.8% 8.4% 0.57× 20.84
SC Cambuur & under 2.5 0.1% 4.8% 15.7% 0.31× 20.84
Draw & under 1.5 0.1% 4.8% 3.5% 1.37× 20.84
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven (1UP) 98.4% 96.1% — — 1.04
SC Cambuur (1UP) 17.6% 22.9% — — 4.37
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven (2UP) 96.4% 96.4% — — 1.04
SC Cambuur (2UP) 3.0% 5.3% — — 18.82
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven to win 2nd half 90.0% 90.0% — — 1.11
2nd half drawn 7.1% 6.6% — — 15.09
SC Cambuur to win 2nd half 2.9% 2.8% — — 35.15
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven over 0.5 in 2nd half 97.4% 94.4% — — 1.06
PSV Eindhoven over 1.5 in 2nd half 87.6% 86.8% — — 1.15
PSV Eindhoven under 1.5 in 2nd half 12.4% 13.2% — — 7.58
PSV Eindhoven under 0.5 in 2nd half 2.6% 5.6% — — 17.73
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur under 1.5 in 2nd half 87.5% 88.4% — — 1.13
SC Cambuur under 0.5 in 2nd half 54.4% 55.2% — — 1.81
SC Cambuur over 0.5 in 2nd half 45.6% 44.8% — — 2.23
SC Cambuur over 1.5 in 2nd half 12.5% 11.6% — — 8.60
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven (+2.5) 99.9% 96.3% 86.8% 1.11× 1.04
PSV Eindhoven (+1.5) 99.7% 96.3% 74.7% 1.29× 1.04
PSV Eindhoven (+0.5) 98.8% 96.3% 55.6% 1.73× 1.04
PSV Eindhoven (-0.5) 96.4% 96.3% 30.1% 3.20× 1.04
SC Cambuur (+0.5) 3.6% 3.7% 69.9% 0.05× 27.07
SC Cambuur (-0.5) 1.2% 3.7% 44.4% 0.08× 27.23
SC Cambuur (-1.5) 0.3% 3.7% 25.3% 0.15× 27.28
SC Cambuur (-2.5) 0.1% 3.7% 13.2% 0.28× 27.30
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven to concede 65.6% 72.3% 83.6% 0.87× 1.38
PSV Eindhoven clean sheet 34.4% 27.7% 16.4% 1.69× 3.61
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven clean sheet in 1st half 63.2% 65.2% — — 1.53
PSV Eindhoven to concede in 1st half 36.8% 34.8% — — 2.87
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven clean sheet in 2nd half 54.4% 55.0% — — 1.82
PSV Eindhoven to concede in 2nd half 45.6% 45.0% — — 2.22
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven over 2.5 corners 85.1% 85.2% — — 1.17
PSV Eindhoven over 3.5 corners 72.6% 71.6% — — 1.40
PSV Eindhoven under 6.5 corners 68.1% 67.6% — — 1.48
PSV Eindhoven over 4.5 corners 58.4% 57.2% — — 1.75
PSV Eindhoven under 5.5 corners 55.7% 57.2% — — 1.75
PSV Eindhoven over 5.5 corners 44.3% 42.8% — — 2.33
PSV Eindhoven under 4.5 corners 41.6% 42.8% — — 2.33
PSV Eindhoven over 6.5 corners 31.9% 32.4% — — 3.09
PSV Eindhoven under 3.5 corners 27.4% 28.4% — — 3.52
PSV Eindhoven under 2.5 corners 14.9% 14.8% — — 6.77
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven over 0.5 goals 99.8% 97.5% 73.2% 1.33× 1.03
PSV Eindhoven over 1.5 goals 98.4% 97.5% 41.9% 2.33× 1.03
PSV Eindhoven over 2.5 goals 94.2% 92.3% 15.1% 6.13× 1.08
PSV Eindhoven over 3.5 goals 85.3% 87.8% 5.6% 15.59× 1.14
PSV Eindhoven under 3.5 goals 14.7% 12.2% 94.4% 0.13× 8.19
PSV Eindhoven under 2.5 goals 5.8% 7.7% 84.9% 0.09× 13.07
PSV Eindhoven under 1.5 goals 1.6% 2.5% 58.1% 0.04× 39.95
PSV Eindhoven under 0.5 goals 0.2% 2.5% 26.8% 0.09× 40.02
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven over 0.5 in 1st half 91.6% 93.9% — — 1.07
PSV Eindhoven over 1.5 in 1st half 70.6% 68.5% — — 1.46
PSV Eindhoven under 1.5 in 1st half 29.4% 31.5% — — 3.18
PSV Eindhoven under 0.5 in 1st half 8.4% 6.1% — — 16.30
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven scores more in 2nd half 58.9% 53.5% — — 1.87
PSV Eindhoven scores more in 1st half 25.0% 26.2% — — 3.82
PSV Eindhoven scores equally in both 16.1% 17.8% — — 5.61
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 67.9% 66.4% 36.5% 1.82× 1.51
SC Cambuur (away no bet) 32.1% 33.6% 63.5% 0.53× 2.98
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven even goals 50.0% 52.6% 57.4% 0.92× 1.90
PSV Eindhoven odd goals 50.0% 47.4% 42.6% 1.11× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves over 1.5 goals 73.0% 76.7% — — 1.30
Not both halves over 1.5 27.0% 23.3% — — 4.28
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 98.4% 98.4% — — 1.02
Both halves under 1.5 goals 1.6% 1.6% — — 63.86
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 97.7% 97.7% — — 1.02
PSV Eindhoven to score 2+ in a row 96.8% 96.8% — — 1.03
Either team to score 3+ in a row 86.9% 89.1% — — 1.12
PSV Eindhoven to score 3+ in a row 86.4% 88.7% — — 1.13
SC Cambuur to score 2+ in a row 11.7% 12.0% — — 8.32
SC Cambuur to score 3+ in a row 1.5% 2.5% — — 39.79
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven corners (+3.5) 85.6% 84.5% — — 1.18
PSV Eindhoven corners (+2.5) 79.0% 74.8% — — 1.34
SC Cambuur corners (+3.5) 77.9% 74.8% — — 1.34
PSV Eindhoven corners (+1.5) 70.7% 70.7% — — 1.41
SC Cambuur corners (+2.5) 69.6% 65.9% — — 1.52
SC Cambuur corners (+1.5) 59.9% 57.1% — — 1.75
PSV Eindhoven corners (-1.5) 40.1% 42.9% — — 2.33
PSV Eindhoven corners (-2.5) 30.4% 34.1% — — 2.93
SC Cambuur corners (-1.5) 29.3% 29.3% — — 3.42
PSV Eindhoven corners (-3.5) 22.1% 25.2% — — 3.97
SC Cambuur corners (-2.5) 21.0% 25.2% — — 3.97
SC Cambuur corners (-3.5) 14.4% 15.5% — — 6.44
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 35.1% 34.0% — — 2.94
0-8 corners 35.1% 34.0% — — 2.94
9-11 corners 29.8% 31.2% — — 3.21
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 74.7% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 12.5 corners 73.1% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 8.5 corners 64.9% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 11.5 corners 64.9% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 55.5% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 54.6% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 45.4% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 44.5% 42.1% — — 2.37
Under 8.5 corners 35.1% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 11.5 corners 35.1% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 12.5 corners 26.9% 27.5% — — 3.64
Under 7.5 corners 25.3% 27.5% — — 3.64
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 2.00
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Any other score 71.7% 72.4% 6.5% 11.06× 1.38
1-4 5.0% 7.4% 2.1% 3.47× 13.51
0-0 0.1% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.32
0-1 0.4% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.32
0-2 1.5% 1.7% 5.9% 0.29× 58.31
0-3 3.0% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.30
0-4 4.7% 1.7% 0.9% 1.88× 58.29
1-0 0.0% 1.7% 8.4% 0.20× 58.32
1-1 0.6% 1.7% 11.7% 0.15× 58.32
1-2 1.6% 1.7% 8.1% 0.21× 58.31
1-3 3.2% 1.7% 2.6% 0.66× 58.30
2-0 0.0% 1.7% 7.5% 0.23× 58.32
2-1 0.3% 1.7% 7.9% 0.22× 58.32
2-2 0.8% 1.7% 8.7% 0.20× 58.31
2-3 1.7% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.31
2-4 2.7% 1.7% 0.5% 3.76× 58.30
3-0 0.0% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.32
3-1 0.1% 1.7% 3.7% 0.47× 58.32
3-2 0.3% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.32
3-3 0.6% 1.7% 2.1% 0.80× 58.32
3-4 1.0% 1.7% 0.6% 2.82× 58.31
4-0 0.0% 1.7% 1.8% 0.94× 58.32
4-1 0.0% 1.7% 3.2% 0.54× 58.32
4-2 0.1% 1.7% 1.2% 1.41× 58.32
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.6% 2.82× 58.32
4-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.2% 11.27× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven (2nd half DNB) 96.9% 96.9% — — 1.03
SC Cambuur (2nd half DNB) 3.1% 3.1% — — 31.87
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven leading at HT (DNB) 94.2% 92.0% — — 1.09
SC Cambuur leading at HT (DNB) 5.8% 8.0% — — 12.46
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven or draw (X2) 98.8% 95.3% 55.6% 1.72× 1.05
SC Cambuur or PSV Eindhoven (12) 97.5% 95.0% 74.4% 1.28× 1.05
SC Cambuur or draw (1X) 3.6% 3.5% 69.9% 0.05× 28.77
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven or draw at HT 94.9% 92.5% — — 1.08
SC Cambuur or PSV Eindhoven at HT 86.6% 88.0% — — 1.14
SC Cambuur or draw at HT 18.4% 18.4% — — 5.42
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven or draw (1UP) 98.8% 99.2% — — 1.01
SC Cambuur or draw (1UP) 17.6% 23.3% — — 4.29
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven or draw in 2nd half 97.1% 97.2% — — 1.03
SC Cambuur or PSV Eindhoven in 2nd half 92.9% 93.4% — — 1.07
SC Cambuur or draw in 2nd half 10.0% 10.0% — — 10.02
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half drawn 80.6% 80.6% — — 1.24
A half drawn 19.4% 19.4% — — 5.15
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven (DNB) 98.8% 96.3% 40.4% 2.38× 1.04
SC Cambuur (DNB) 1.2% 3.7% 59.6% 0.06× 26.78
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven to score first 85.2% 83.2% — — 1.20
SC Cambuur to score first 14.6% 10.5% — — 9.53
No goal scored 0.1% 4.2% — — 23.93
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 65.5% 58.4% 60.3% 0.97× 1.71
Not both teams to score 34.5% 41.6% 39.7% 1.05× 2.40
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 65.0% 50.6% 48.7% 1.04× 1.98
Not both score & over 2.5 32.4% 34.5% 11.1% 3.11× 2.90
Not both score & under 2.5 2.1% 4.6% 28.8% 0.16× 21.87
Both score & under 2.5 0.6% 4.5% 11.7% 0.38× 22.40
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 71.5% 80.4% 80.4% 1.00× 1.24
Both teams to score 2+ 28.5% 19.6% 19.6% 1.00× 5.11
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 55.6% 64.5% — — 1.55
Both teams to score in 2nd half 44.4% 35.5% — — 2.82
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 36.8% 43.7% — — 2.29
Both score 2nd half only 29.4% 27.5% — — 3.64
Both score 1st half only 18.8% 15.1% — — 6.62
Both score in both halves 15.0% 10.7% — — 9.32
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 66.3% 70.0% — — 1.43
Both teams to score by HT 33.7% 30.0% — — 3.33
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 93.4% 93.4% — — 1.07
A half without a goal 6.6% 6.6% — — 15.07
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
7+ goals 54.9% 41.8% 4.1% 10.16× 2.40
4-6 goals 37.6% 35.1% 33.8% 1.04× 2.85
2-3 goals 6.9% 7.6% 46.7% 0.16× 13.14
0-1 goals 0.6% 1.8% 15.7% 0.12× 54.45
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven to score 3+ 94.2% 94.2% 15.1% 6.25× 1.06
PSV Eindhoven to score exactly 2 4.3% 4.6% 26.9% 0.17× 21.77
PSV Eindhoven to score exactly 1 1.4% 4.6% 31.5% 0.14× 21.97
PSV Eindhoven to score exactly 0 0.2% 4.5% 26.8% 0.17× 22.05
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur to score exactly 1 36.7% 35.6% 33.2% 1.07× 2.81
SC Cambuur to score exactly 0 34.4% 32.6% 16.4% 1.98× 3.07
SC Cambuur to score exactly 2 19.6% 18.8% 26.9% 0.70× 5.33
SC Cambuur to score 3+ 9.3% 10.3% 23.7% 0.43× 9.69
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven leading at HT 81.6% 81.6% — — 1.23
Draw at HT 13.4% 12.0% — — 8.32
SC Cambuur leading at HT 5.1% 7.5% — — 13.34
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven -1: 2 91.3% 89.1% — — 1.12
PSV Eindhoven -1: X 5.1% 13.2% — — 7.60
PSV Eindhoven -1: 1 3.6% 3.4% — — 29.46
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven (0:1) 98.8% 99.1% 55.6% 1.78× 1.01
Draw (0:1) 0.8% 5.5% 19.3% 0.28× 18.35
SC Cambuur (0:1) 0.3% 5.4% 25.3% 0.21× 18.48
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven (0:2) 99.7% 94.5% 74.7% 1.26× 1.06
Draw (0:2) 0.3% 3.7% 12.2% 0.31× 26.85
SC Cambuur (0:2) 0.1% 3.7% 13.2% 0.28× 26.86
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven (0:3) 99.9% 96.7% 86.8% 1.11× 1.04
SC Cambuur (0:3) 0.0% 2.4% 5.6% 0.42× 42.19
Draw (0:3) 0.1% 2.4% 7.8% 0.31× 42.19
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven (0:4) 100.0% 98.1% 94.4% 1.04× 1.02
SC Cambuur (0:4) 0.0% 1.2% 3.2% 0.38× 82.10
Draw (0:4) 0.0% 1.2% 2.6% 0.47× 82.10
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven (1:0) 91.3% 92.6% 15.5% 5.96× 1.08
Draw (1:0) 5.1% 6.9% 14.8% 0.47× 14.53
SC Cambuur (1:0) 3.6% 3.3% 69.9% 0.05× 30.53
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven (2:0) 82.3% 84.6% 6.8% 12.35× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 9.0% 6.4% 8.8% 0.72× 15.67
SC Cambuur (2:0) 8.7% 6.4% 84.5% 0.08× 15.67
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 60.3% 60.3% — — 1.66
1st half highest scoring 25.0% 26.2% — — 3.82
Halves equal 14.7% 14.7% — — 6.81
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur to concede 99.8% 98.1% 73.2% 1.34× 1.02
SC Cambuur clean sheet 0.2% 1.9% 26.8% 0.07× 52.39
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur to concede in 1st half 91.6% 91.6% — — 1.09
SC Cambuur clean sheet in 1st half 8.4% 8.4% — — 11.88
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur to concede in 2nd half 97.4% 97.4% — — 1.03
SC Cambuur clean sheet in 2nd half 2.6% 2.6% — — 38.27
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur over 2.5 corners 80.5% 80.9% — — 1.24
SC Cambuur under 6.5 corners 75.5% 76.5% — — 1.31
SC Cambuur over 3.5 corners 65.8% 66.7% — — 1.50
SC Cambuur under 5.5 corners 63.9% 62.3% — — 1.61
SC Cambuur over 4.5 corners 50.3% 52.6% — — 1.90
SC Cambuur under 4.5 corners 49.7% 47.4% — — 2.11
SC Cambuur over 5.5 corners 36.1% 37.7% — — 2.65
SC Cambuur under 3.5 corners 34.2% 33.3% — — 3.01
SC Cambuur over 6.5 corners 24.5% 23.5% — — 4.26
SC Cambuur under 2.5 corners 19.5% 19.1% — — 5.25
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur under 3.5 goals 97.7% 96.4% 89.2% 1.08× 1.04
SC Cambuur under 2.5 goals 90.7% 92.2% 76.3% 1.21× 1.08
SC Cambuur under 1.5 goals 71.1% 74.2% 49.5% 1.50× 1.35
SC Cambuur over 0.5 goals 65.6% 67.9% 83.6% 0.81× 1.47
SC Cambuur under 0.5 goals 34.4% 32.1% 16.4% 1.95× 3.12
SC Cambuur over 1.5 goals 28.9% 25.8% 50.5% 0.51× 3.88
SC Cambuur over 2.5 goals 9.3% 7.8% 23.7% 0.33× 12.87
SC Cambuur over 3.5 goals 2.3% 3.6% 10.8% 0.34× 27.55
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur under 1.5 in 1st half 92.2% 94.7% — — 1.06
SC Cambuur under 0.5 in 1st half 63.2% 64.9% — — 1.54
SC Cambuur over 0.5 in 1st half 36.8% 35.1% — — 2.85
SC Cambuur over 1.5 in 1st half 7.8% 5.3% — — 19.02
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur scores equally in both 44.7% 42.1% — — 2.37
SC Cambuur scores more in 2nd half 32.6% 33.0% — — 3.04
SC Cambuur scores more in 1st half 22.7% 21.2% — — 4.71
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven (home no bet) 97.5% 97.5% 54.1% 1.80× 1.03
Draw (home no bet) 2.5% 2.5% 45.9% 0.05× 39.89
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur even goals 55.9% 55.3% 51.0% 1.08× 1.81
SC Cambuur odd goals 44.1% 44.7% 49.0% 0.91× 2.24
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Any other HT score 45.2% 45.6% — — 2.19
HT 0-2 16.5% 18.6% — — 5.39
HT 0-1 13.2% 11.0% — — 9.07
HT 1-2 7.6% 6.9% — — 14.48
HT 1-1 6.1% 6.9% — — 14.51
HT 0-0 5.3% 6.9% — — 14.52
HT 1-0 2.4% 2.4% — — 42.12
HT 2-2 1.7% 2.4% — — 42.17
HT 2-1 1.4% 2.4% — — 42.19
HT 2-0 0.6% 2.4% — — 42.24
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven at HT / PSV Eindhoven at FT 80.7% 80.7% — — 1.24
Draw at HT / PSV Eindhoven at FT 12.0% 12.6% — — 7.91
SC Cambuur at HT / PSV Eindhoven at FT 3.6% 3.5% — — 28.63
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 1.0% 3.5% — — 28.73
SC Cambuur at HT / Draw at FT 0.8% 3.5% — — 28.74
PSV Eindhoven at HT / Draw at FT 0.7% 3.5% — — 28.74
SC Cambuur at HT / SC Cambuur at FT 0.6% 3.5% — — 28.74
Draw at HT / SC Cambuur at FT 0.4% 3.5% — — 28.75
PSV Eindhoven at HT / SC Cambuur at FT 0.2% 3.5% — — 28.76
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven to score last 84.7% 86.5% — — 1.16
SC Cambuur to score last 15.2% 12.6% — — 7.94
No goal scored 0.1% 4.2% — — 23.93
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 99.9% 95.8% — — 1.04
PSV Eindhoven to lead by 1 at any time 98.4% 95.7% — — 1.05
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 95.7% 95.6% — — 1.05
PSV Eindhoven to lead by 2 at any time 94.1% 92.7% — — 1.08
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 86.0% 91.0% — — 1.10
PSV Eindhoven to lead by 3 at any time 85.6% 90.9% — — 1.10
SC Cambuur to lead by 1 at any time 17.6% 15.0% — — 6.69
SC Cambuur to lead by 2 at any time 3.0% 1.6% — — 61.79
SC Cambuur to lead by 3 at any time 0.5% 1.6% — — 64.25
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven most corners 50.5% 51.7% — — 1.94
SC Cambuur most corners 39.0% 39.3% — — 2.54
Corners level 10.5% 10.4% — — 9.58
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
7+ goals 54.9% 53.2% 4.1% 12.94× 1.88
2-6 goals 44.6% 43.6% 80.4% 0.54× 2.29
3-6 goals 42.5% 43.6% 55.7% 0.78× 2.30
4-6 goals 37.6% 39.2% 33.8% 1.16× 2.55
1-5 goals 29.3% 30.2% 87.5% 0.35× 3.31
2-5 goals 28.8% 30.2% 75.3% 0.40× 3.31
5-6 goals 28.7% 30.2% 16.9% 1.79× 3.31
3-5 goals 26.8% 30.2% 50.7% 0.60× 3.31
4-5 goals 21.9% 24.5% 28.8% 0.85× 4.08
1-4 goals 16.3% 18.8% 75.8% 0.25× 5.31
2-4 goals 15.8% 18.8% 63.6% 0.30× 5.31
3-4 goals 13.8% 14.8% 39.0% 0.38× 6.75
1-3 goals 7.4% 8.9% 58.9% 0.15× 11.26
2-3 goals 6.9% 8.9% 46.7% 0.19× 11.27
1-2 goals 2.5% 2.6% 37.0% 0.07× 39.11
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven never behind 82.3% 80.6% — — 1.24
SC Cambuur never behind 1.5% 3.6% — — 27.73
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.9% 50.9% 48.9% 1.04× 1.96
Even number of goals 50.1% 49.1% 51.1% 0.96× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 50.3% 51.6% — — 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 49.7% 48.4% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 50.6% 51.9% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.4% 48.1% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 99.9% 95.4% 96.5% 0.99× 1.05
Over 1.5 goals 99.4% 95.4% 84.3% 1.13× 1.05
Over 2.5 goals 97.4% 95.4% 59.7% 1.60× 1.05
Over 3.5 goals 92.5% 92.3% 37.7% 2.44× 1.08
Over 4.5 goals 83.6% 82.3% 20.9% 3.95× 1.22
Over 5.5 goals 70.6% 72.5% 9.1% 7.93× 1.38
Under 5.5 goals 29.4% 27.5% 90.9% 0.30× 3.63
Under 4.5 goals 16.4% 17.7% 79.1% 0.22× 5.65
Under 3.5 goals 7.5% 7.7% 62.3% 0.12× 12.94
Under 2.5 goals 2.6% 4.6% 40.3% 0.11× 21.88
Under 1.5 goals 0.6% 4.6% 15.7% 0.29× 21.91
Under 0.5 goals 0.1% 4.6% 3.5% 1.30× 21.92
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 99.4% 97.2% 79.2% 1.23× 1.03
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 97.2% 97.2% 48.3% 2.01× 1.03
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 91.7% 92.4% 25.1% 3.68× 1.08
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 81.1% 81.1% 10.3% 7.84× 1.23
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 65.1% 67.4% 4.3% 15.58× 1.48
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 34.9% 32.6% 95.7% 0.34× 3.07
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 18.9% 18.9% 89.7% 0.21× 5.28
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 8.3% 7.6% 74.9% 0.10× 13.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 2.8% 2.8% 51.7% 0.05× 35.58
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 0.6% 2.8% 20.8% 0.13× 35.64
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half 94.7% 92.8% — — 1.08
Over 1.5 in 1st half 79.0% 78.2% — — 1.28
Over 2.5 in 1st half 55.9% 63.5% — — 1.58
Under 2.5 in 1st half 44.1% 36.5% — — 2.74
Under 1.5 in 1st half 21.0% 21.8% — — 4.59
Under 0.5 in 1st half 5.3% 7.2% — — 13.86
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 98.6% 98.6% — — 1.01
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 92.4% 90.1% — — 1.11
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 79.0% 79.4% — — 1.26
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 21.0% 20.6% — — 4.86
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 7.6% 9.9% — — 10.05
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 1.4% 1.4% — — 71.15
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven to score in both halves 89.2% 85.5% — — 1.17
SC Cambuur not to score in both halves 83.2% 84.4% — — 1.19
SC Cambuur to score in both halves 16.8% 15.6% — — 6.40
PSV Eindhoven not to score in both halves 10.8% 14.5% — — 6.90
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 65.5% 59.8% 60.3% 0.99× 1.67
Only PSV Eindhoven scores 34.2% 33.3% 13.1% 2.55× 3.00
Neither team scores 0.1% 4.6% 3.5% 1.31× 21.84
Only SC Cambuur scores 0.1% 4.6% 23.4% 0.20× 21.84
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
6 or more goals 70.6% 70.6% 9.1% 7.73× 1.42
Exactly 5 goals 13.0% 12.1% 11.9% 1.02× 8.24
Exactly 4 goals 8.9% 7.6% 17.0% 0.45× 13.13
Exactly 3 goals 4.9% 4.5% 22.1% 0.20× 22.37
Exactly 2 goals 2.1% 4.5% 24.8% 0.18× 22.41
Exactly 1 goals 0.4% 4.5% 12.3% 0.36× 22.43
Exactly 0 goals 0.1% 4.5% 3.5% 1.27× 22.44
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
3+ goals in 1st half 55.9% 55.9% — — 1.79
2 goals in 1st half 23.1% 21.5% — — 4.65
1 goal in 1st half 15.7% 15.6% — — 6.42
No goals in 1st half 5.3% 7.2% — — 13.86
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 92.4% 92.4% — — 1.08
1 goal in 2nd half 6.1% 9.7% — — 10.36
No goals in 2nd half 1.4% 1.4% — — 71.15
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur not to win both halves 99.9% 97.3% — — 1.03
PSV Eindhoven to win both halves 73.4% 72.9% — — 1.37
PSV Eindhoven not to win both halves 26.6% 27.1% — — 3.68
SC Cambuur to win both halves 0.1% 2.7% — — 36.73
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven to win either half 98.1% 98.2% — — 1.02
SC Cambuur to win neither half 92.2% 93.3% — — 1.07
SC Cambuur to win either half 7.8% 6.7% — — 15.02
PSV Eindhoven to win neither half 1.9% 1.8% — — 54.98
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur not to win to nil 99.9% 96.3% 76.6% 1.26× 1.04
PSV Eindhoven not to win to nil 65.8% 69.6% 86.9% 0.80× 1.44
PSV Eindhoven to win to nil 34.2% 30.4% 13.1% 2.32× 3.29
SC Cambuur to win to nil 0.1% 3.7% 23.4% 0.16× 26.84
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
PSV Eindhoven by 3+ 82.3% 82.3% 6.8% 12.01× 1.22
PSV Eindhoven by 2 9.0% 7.2% 8.8% 0.81× 13.90
PSV Eindhoven by 1 5.1% 7.2% 14.8% 0.49× 13.92
Draw 2.5% 2.7% 25.6% 0.11× 36.83
SC Cambuur by 1 0.8% 2.7% 19.3% 0.14× 36.88
SC Cambuur by 2 0.3% 2.7% 12.2% 0.22× 36.90
SC Cambuur by 3+ 0.1% 2.7% 13.2% 0.20× 36.90
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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