Schalke 04 v Mainz 05 — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 October 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 10
On target
3 – 6
Shots in box
7 – 8
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-0.41 – -0.57
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailySchalke 04 win
36.3%
model 36.7%
Draw
21.9%
model 21.9%
Mainz 05 win
41.7%
model 41.4%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 8.9%
- 1-2 8.2%
- 2-1 7.7%
- 2-2 7.2%
- 0-1 5.1%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 69.7% | Under 2.5 | 30.3% |
| BTTS yes | 69.6% | BTTS no | 30.4% |
| Schalke 04 1+ | 82.4% | Schalke 04 2+ | 51.9% |
| Mainz 05 1+ | 84.4% | Mainz 05 2+ | 55.4% |
Expected goals 1.74 – 1.86. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
94/100
Data quality
100/100
Model agreement
94%
★ Best pick
Schalke 04 to concede in 1st half
Home clean sheet 1HT · usually 46%
67.0% fair odds 1.49
strong signal · 549 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Over 0.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT · usually 77%
83.8% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 383 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Away from home Mainz 05 average 3.19 xG a match.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Mainz 05 have an estimated 41.7% win probability, against 36.3% for Schalke 04 and 21.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.74 for Schalke 04 and 1.86 for Mainz 05.
Why Schalke 04
Schalke 04 carry the stronger rating, 1594 Elo against 1526.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 21.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.74 to 1.86. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Mainz 05 can win
Away from home Mainz 05 average 3.19 xG a match.
Key players
Schalke 04's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Junior Adamu (0.51), Adil Aouchiche (0.38), Moussa Sylla (0.35). Mainz 05's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Phillip Tietz (0.63), Sheraldo Becker (0.56), Nadiem Amiri (0.54).
Availability
1 of Schalke 04's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Mainz 05's last eleven are new to the club this window.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Schalke 04: 39% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 16.0 faced, 0.35 xG a match from set pieces. Mainz 05: 50% possession, 19.4 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.67 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-17 14:51 · team_stats 2026-10-17 06:03 · availability 2026-10-17 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Mainz 05 are the model's most likely outcome at 41.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 8.9%. Confidence 94/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Schalke 04 are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 6 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWDLL last 6
scored 4
from 7.4 xG
conceded 7
from 13.5 xG
Mainz 05 are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWLWDWLWLW last 10
scored 22
from 26.3 xG
conceded 18
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.74–1.86 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg | 1.85–2.22 | 1-2 8% | 77% | 75% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.06–2.35 | 2-2 7% | 82% | 79% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 to win | 62.9% | 58.1% | 33.5% | 1.73× | 1.72 |
| Schalke 04 to win | 21.3% | 24.4% | 41.9% | 0.58× | 4.09 |
| Draw | 15.8% | 19.4% | 24.7% | 0.78× | 5.16 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 & both teams score | 48.9% | 43.4% | 18.5% | 2.34× | 2.31 |
| Schalke 04 & both teams score | 17.8% | 18.0% | 22.2% | 0.81× | 5.56 |
| Draw & both teams score | 15.2% | 18.0% | 19.1% | 0.94× | 5.56 |
| Mainz 05 & not both score | 14.0% | 13.3% | 15.2% | 0.87× | 7.53 |
| Schalke 04 & not both score | 3.5% | 4.9% | 19.9% | 0.24× | 20.59 |
| Draw & not both score | 0.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 0.84× | 20.67 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 & over 2.5 | 57.9% | 54.8% | 23.5% | 2.33× | 1.82 |
| Mainz 05 & over 1.5 | 61.0% | 54.5% | 27.8% | 1.96× | 1.83 |
| Mainz 05 & over 3.5 | 48.7% | 45.1% | 14.3% | 3.16× | 2.22 |
| Schalke 04 & over 1.5 | 20.2% | 21.6% | 35.8% | 0.60× | 4.63 |
| Schalke 04 & over 2.5 | 19.1% | 18.0% | 29.9% | 0.60× | 5.56 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 15.2% | 18.0% | 19.1% | 0.94× | 5.56 |
| Schalke 04 & over 3.5 | 14.8% | 12.8% | 20.3% | 0.63× | 7.79 |
| Mainz 05 & under 3.5 | 14.2% | 12.8% | 19.4% | 0.66× | 7.79 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 11.5% | 12.8% | 9.7% | 1.32× | 7.79 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 11.5% | 12.8% | 9.7% | 1.32× | 7.79 |
| Schalke 04 & under 3.5 | 6.6% | 7.9% | 21.7% | 0.37× | 12.62 |
| Mainz 05 & under 2.5 | 5.0% | 4.8% | 10.2% | 0.47× | 20.85 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 4.3% | 4.8% | 15.2% | 0.32× | 20.85 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 4.3% | 4.8% | 15.2% | 0.32× | 20.85 |
| Schalke 04 & under 2.5 | 2.3% | 4.8% | 12.1% | 0.39× | 20.86 |
| Mainz 05 & under 1.5 | 1.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 0.81× | 20.86 |
| Schalke 04 & under 1.5 | 1.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 0.77× | 20.87 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 0.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 0.83× | 20.87 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 (1UP) | 80.1% | 87.0% | 52.3% | 1.66× | 1.15 |
| Schalke 04 (1UP) | 48.4% | 43.8% | 60.2% | 0.73× | 2.28 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 (2UP) | 62.9% | 68.3% | 36.5% | 1.87× | 1.47 |
| Schalke 04 (2UP) | 21.3% | 23.1% | 45.3% | 0.51× | 4.33 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 to win 2nd half | 55.1% | 60.5% | 29.3% | 2.06× | 1.65 |
| 2nd half drawn | 23.1% | 24.1% | 33.6% | 0.72× | 4.15 |
| Schalke 04 to win 2nd half | 21.9% | 24.1% | 37.2% | 0.65× | 4.16 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 over 0.5 in 2nd half | 83.6% | 84.1% | 56.8% | 1.48× | 1.19 |
| Mainz 05 over 1.5 in 2nd half | 53.9% | 52.2% | 20.7% | 2.53× | 1.92 |
| Mainz 05 under 1.5 in 2nd half | 46.1% | 47.8% | 79.3% | 0.60× | 2.09 |
| Mainz 05 under 0.5 in 2nd half | 16.4% | 15.9% | 43.2% | 0.37× | 6.29 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 under 1.5 in 2nd half | 71.7% | 73.7% | 74.3% | 0.99× | 1.36 |
| Schalke 04 over 0.5 in 2nd half | 65.0% | 71.1% | 62.9% | 1.13× | 1.41 |
| Schalke 04 under 0.5 in 2nd half | 35.0% | 28.9% | 37.1% | 0.78× | 3.46 |
| Schalke 04 over 1.5 in 2nd half | 28.3% | 26.3% | 25.7% | 1.02× | 3.81 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 (+2.5) | 95.7% | 96.3% | 88.0% | 1.09× | 1.04 |
| Mainz 05 (+1.5) | 89.6% | 88.5% | 75.3% | 1.18× | 1.13 |
| Mainz 05 (+0.5) | 78.7% | 78.5% | 58.1% | 1.35× | 1.27 |
| Mainz 05 (-0.5) | 62.9% | 63.0% | 33.5% | 1.88× | 1.59 |
| Schalke 04 (+0.5) | 37.1% | 37.1% | 66.5% | 0.56× | 2.70 |
| Schalke 04 (-0.5) | 21.3% | 21.5% | 41.9% | 0.51× | 4.65 |
| Schalke 04 (-1.5) | 10.4% | 11.5% | 24.7% | 0.47× | 8.67 |
| Schalke 04 (-2.5) | 4.3% | 3.7% | 12.0% | 0.31× | 26.98 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 to concede | 85.4% | 86.3% | 79.2% | 1.09× | 1.16 |
| Mainz 05 clean sheet | 14.6% | 13.7% | 20.8% | 0.66× | 7.29 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 to concede in 1st half | 58.2% | 57.7% | 52.1% | 1.11× | 1.73 |
| Mainz 05 clean sheet in 1st half | 41.8% | 42.3% | 47.9% | 0.88× | 2.36 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 to concede in 2nd half | 65.0% | 66.3% | 62.9% | 1.05× | 1.51 |
| Mainz 05 clean sheet in 2nd half | 35.0% | 33.7% | 37.1% | 0.91× | 2.97 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 under 6.5 corners | 83.6% | 81.4% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Mainz 05 over 2.5 corners | 73.6% | 71.6% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Mainz 05 under 5.5 corners | 73.5% | 71.6% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Mainz 05 under 4.5 corners | 59.9% | 57.1% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Mainz 05 over 3.5 corners | 56.5% | 57.1% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Mainz 05 under 3.5 corners | 43.5% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Mainz 05 over 4.5 corners | 40.1% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Mainz 05 over 5.5 corners | 26.5% | 28.4% | — | — | 3.52 |
| Mainz 05 under 2.5 corners | 26.4% | 28.4% | — | — | 3.52 |
| Mainz 05 over 6.5 corners | 16.4% | 18.6% | — | — | 5.37 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 over 0.5 goals | 95.9% | 97.5% | 74.5% | 1.31× | 1.03 |
| Mainz 05 over 1.5 goals | 82.7% | 81.5% | 42.9% | 1.90× | 1.23 |
| Mainz 05 over 2.5 goals | 61.7% | 63.2% | 20.9% | 3.02× | 1.58 |
| Mainz 05 under 3.5 goals | 60.7% | 63.2% | 92.6% | 0.68× | 1.58 |
| Mainz 05 over 3.5 goals | 39.3% | 36.8% | 7.4% | 4.95× | 2.72 |
| Mainz 05 under 2.5 goals | 38.4% | 36.8% | 79.1% | 0.47× | 2.72 |
| Mainz 05 under 1.5 goals | 17.3% | 18.5% | 57.1% | 0.33× | 5.39 |
| Mainz 05 under 0.5 goals | 4.1% | 2.5% | 25.5% | 0.10× | 39.90 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 over 0.5 in 1st half | 74.8% | 68.9% | 45.6% | 1.51× | 1.45 |
| Mainz 05 under 1.5 in 1st half | 60.0% | 62.3% | 85.7% | 0.73× | 1.60 |
| Mainz 05 over 1.5 in 1st half | 40.0% | 37.7% | 14.3% | 2.64× | 2.66 |
| Mainz 05 under 0.5 in 1st half | 25.2% | 31.1% | 54.4% | 0.57× | 3.21 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 scores more in 2nd half | 47.6% | 48.0% | 36.6% | 1.31× | 2.08 |
| Mainz 05 scores more in 1st half | 29.4% | 26.9% | 24.0% | 1.12× | 3.71 |
| Mainz 05 scores equally in both | 23.0% | 21.7% | 39.5% | 0.55× | 4.60 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 (away no bet) | 57.5% | 57.4% | 62.9% | 0.91× | 1.74 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 42.5% | 42.6% | 37.1% | 1.15× | 2.35 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 even goals | 50.1% | 52.6% | 53.6% | 0.98× | 1.90 |
| Mainz 05 odd goals | 49.9% | 47.4% | 46.4% | 1.02× | 2.11 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 51.2% | 55.2% | 24.6% | 2.24× | 1.81 |
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 48.8% | 44.8% | 75.4% | 0.59× | 2.23 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 92.4% | 91.6% | 72.5% | 1.26× | 1.09 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 7.6% | 8.4% | 27.5% | 0.31× | 11.90 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 86.0% | 88.2% | 66.7% | 1.32× | 1.13 |
| Mainz 05 to score 2+ in a row | 71.2% | 71.7% | 34.5% | 2.08× | 1.39 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 49.9% | 46.2% | 29.3% | 1.58× | 2.16 |
| Mainz 05 to score 3+ in a row | 40.4% | 38.6% | 12.5% | 3.09× | 2.59 |
| Schalke 04 to score 2+ in a row | 38.1% | 36.5% | 42.6% | 0.86× | 2.74 |
| Schalke 04 to score 3+ in a row | 12.1% | 12.0% | 17.8% | 0.68× | 8.30 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 corners (+3.5) | 87.3% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Mainz 05 corners (+3.5) | 81.5% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Schalke 04 corners (+2.5) | 80.4% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Mainz 05 corners (+2.5) | 73.1% | 70.8% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Schalke 04 corners (+1.5) | 71.3% | 70.7% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Mainz 05 corners (+1.5) | 62.7% | 61.9% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Schalke 04 corners (-1.5) | 37.3% | 38.1% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Mainz 05 corners (-1.5) | 28.7% | 29.3% | — | — | 3.42 |
| Schalke 04 corners (-2.5) | 26.9% | 29.3% | — | — | 3.42 |
| Mainz 05 corners (-2.5) | 19.6% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.94 |
| Schalke 04 corners (-3.5) | 18.5% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.94 |
| Mainz 05 corners (-3.5) | 12.7% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.45 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 50.0% | 45.2% | — | — | 2.21 |
| 9-11 corners | 28.7% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.21 |
| 12+ corners | 21.3% | 25.6% | — | — | 3.90 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 85.1% | 83.1% | — | — | 1.20 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 78.7% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 70.6% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 61.5% | 63.2% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 60.9% | 63.2% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 50.0% | 53.2% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 50.0% | 46.8% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 39.1% | 36.8% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 38.5% | 36.8% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 29.4% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 21.3% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 14.9% | 16.9% | — | — | 5.91 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.1% | — | — | 2.00 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any other score | 25.1% | 19.4% | 5.8% | 3.37× | 5.15 |
| 1-2 | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 1.11× | 13.50 |
| 1-3 | 6.3% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 1.57× | 13.50 |
| 1-4 | 5.0% | 7.4% | 1.7% | 4.44× | 13.50 |
| 2-2 | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 1.11× | 13.50 |
| 2-3 | 6.0% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 2.71× | 13.50 |
| 2-4 | 4.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.62× | 58.29 |
| 0-2 | 3.1% | 1.7% | 4.4% | 0.39× | 58.30 |
| 0-3 | 3.3% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 0.59× | 58.30 |
| 0-4 | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.13× | 58.30 |
| 1-0 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 6.2% | 0.28× | 58.31 |
| 1-1 | 3.7% | 1.7% | 9.6% | 0.18× | 58.30 |
| 2-0 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 6.1% | 0.28× | 58.31 |
| 2-1 | 3.6% | 1.7% | 7.1% | 0.24× | 58.30 |
| 3-0 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 0.63× | 58.32 |
| 3-1 | 2.3% | 1.7% | 6.1% | 0.28× | 58.31 |
| 3-2 | 3.6% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 0.49× | 58.30 |
| 3-3 | 3.9% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 0.60× | 58.30 |
| 3-4 | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.03× | 58.30 |
| 4-0 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 0.49× | 58.32 |
| 4-1 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 0.81× | 58.31 |
| 4-2 | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.61× | 58.31 |
| 4-3 | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.88× | 58.31 |
| 4-4 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.77× | 58.31 |
| 0-0 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 5.8% | 0.30× | 58.32 |
| 0-1 | 1.9% | 1.7% | 5.9% | 0.29× | 58.31 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 (2nd half DNB) | 71.6% | 69.9% | 44.1% | 1.59× | 1.43 |
| Schalke 04 (2nd half DNB) | 28.4% | 30.1% | 55.9% | 0.54× | 3.32 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 leading at HT (DNB) | 67.1% | 74.3% | 44.3% | 1.68× | 1.35 |
| Schalke 04 leading at HT (DNB) | 32.9% | 25.7% | 55.7% | 0.46× | 3.89 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 or Mainz 05 (12) | 84.2% | 80.6% | 75.3% | 1.07× | 1.24 |
| Mainz 05 or draw (X2) | 78.7% | 75.6% | 58.1% | 1.30× | 1.32 |
| Schalke 04 or draw (1X) | 37.1% | 41.9% | 66.5% | 0.63× | 2.39 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 or draw at HT | 76.2% | 79.4% | 63.1% | 1.26× | 1.26 |
| Schalke 04 or Mainz 05 at HT | 72.4% | 75.1% | 66.1% | 1.14× | 1.33 |
| Schalke 04 or draw at HT | 51.4% | 47.3% | 70.7% | 0.67× | 2.11 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 or draw (1UP) | 80.1% | 88.4% | 64.7% | 1.37× | 1.13 |
| Schalke 04 or draw (1UP) | 48.4% | 52.9% | 73.7% | 0.72× | 1.89 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 or draw in 2nd half | 78.1% | 75.9% | 62.8% | 1.21× | 1.32 |
| Schalke 04 or Mainz 05 in 2nd half | 76.9% | 75.9% | 66.4% | 1.14× | 1.32 |
| Schalke 04 or draw in 2nd half | 44.9% | 39.5% | 70.7% | 0.56× | 2.53 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half drawn | 55.7% | 58.5% | 46.2% | 1.27× | 1.71 |
| A half drawn | 44.3% | 41.5% | 53.8% | 0.77× | 2.41 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 (DNB) | 74.7% | 71.6% | 44.5% | 1.61× | 1.40 |
| Schalke 04 (DNB) | 25.3% | 28.4% | 55.5% | 0.51× | 3.53 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 to score first | 62.0% | 64.7% | 43.2% | 1.50× | 1.55 |
| Schalke 04 to score first | 37.4% | 32.6% | 51.2% | 0.64× | 3.07 |
| No goal scored | 0.6% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 0.72× | 23.99 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 81.9% | 67.9% | 59.5% | 1.14× | 1.47 |
| Not both teams to score | 18.1% | 32.1% | 40.5% | 0.79× | 3.11 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 78.2% | 67.0% | 50.1% | 1.34× | 1.49 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 10.3% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 0.96× | 8.10 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 7.9% | 8.3% | 27.8% | 0.30× | 12.05 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 3.7% | 4.7% | 9.6% | 0.49× | 21.26 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 52.6% | 53.3% | 79.4% | 0.67× | 1.88 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 47.4% | 46.7% | 20.6% | 2.26× | 2.14 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 54.3% | 54.7% | 35.0% | 1.56× | 1.83 |
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 45.7% | 45.3% | 65.0% | 0.70× | 2.21 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 25.8% | 27.6% | 51.2% | 0.54× | 3.63 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 30.7% | 26.3% | 28.3% | 0.93× | 3.80 |
| Both score in both halves | 23.7% | 20.8% | 6.8% | 3.05× | 4.80 |
| Both score 1st half only | 19.9% | 15.2% | 14.0% | 1.09× | 6.57 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 56.4% | 57.5% | 79.3% | 0.72× | 1.74 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 43.6% | 42.5% | 20.7% | 2.06× | 2.35 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 84.3% | 82.4% | 67.6% | 1.22× | 1.21 |
| A half without a goal | 15.7% | 17.6% | 32.4% | 0.54× | 5.69 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-6 goals | 49.8% | 47.2% | 40.1% | 1.18× | 2.12 |
| 7+ goals | 25.2% | 26.6% | 4.1% | 6.49× | 3.76 |
| 2-3 goals | 21.4% | 22.9% | 38.5% | 0.59× | 4.37 |
| 0-1 goals | 3.7% | 1.8% | 17.6% | 0.10× | 54.31 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 to score 3+ | 61.7% | 50.5% | 20.9% | 2.41× | 1.98 |
| Mainz 05 to score exactly 2 | 21.0% | 22.3% | 22.2% | 1.01× | 4.48 |
| Mainz 05 to score exactly 1 | 13.2% | 12.8% | 31.7% | 0.41× | 7.78 |
| Mainz 05 to score exactly 0 | 4.1% | 4.6% | 25.5% | 0.18× | 21.77 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 to score 3+ | 30.3% | 32.5% | 27.6% | 1.18× | 3.08 |
| Schalke 04 to score exactly 1 | 28.1% | 26.6% | 28.7% | 0.93× | 3.76 |
| Schalke 04 to score exactly 2 | 27.0% | 26.6% | 23.2% | 1.14× | 3.76 |
| Schalke 04 to score exactly 0 | 14.6% | 14.3% | 20.8% | 0.69× | 6.98 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 leading at HT | 48.6% | 52.7% | 29.3% | 1.80× | 1.90 |
| Draw at HT | 27.6% | 24.9% | 33.9% | 0.73× | 4.02 |
| Schalke 04 leading at HT | 23.8% | 20.6% | 36.9% | 0.56× | 4.85 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 -1: 2 | 44.7% | 42.8% | — | — | 2.34 |
| Mainz 05 -1: 1 | 37.1% | 37.4% | — | — | 2.67 |
| Mainz 05 -1: X | 18.1% | 17.5% | — | — | 5.73 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 (0:1) | 78.7% | 73.9% | 58.1% | 1.27× | 1.35 |
| Draw (0:1) | 10.9% | 13.7% | 17.3% | 0.79× | 7.31 |
| Schalke 04 (0:1) | 10.4% | 13.7% | 24.7% | 0.55× | 7.31 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 (0:2) | 89.6% | 87.1% | 75.3% | 1.16× | 1.15 |
| Draw (0:2) | 6.1% | 7.7% | 12.9% | 0.60× | 13.03 |
| Schalke 04 (0:2) | 4.3% | 3.8% | 12.0% | 0.31× | 26.56 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 (0:3) | 95.7% | 96.6% | 88.0% | 1.10× | 1.04 |
| Draw (0:3) | 2.8% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 0.47× | 42.11 |
| Schalke 04 (0:3) | 1.5% | 2.4% | 7.1% | 0.33× | 42.16 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 (0:4) | 98.5% | 98.1% | 92.9% | 1.06× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 1.1% | 1.2% | 5.0% | 0.24× | 82.12 |
| Schalke 04 (0:4) | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 0.53× | 82.19 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 (1:0) | 44.7% | 43.3% | 17.1% | 2.53× | 2.31 |
| Schalke 04 (1:0) | 37.1% | 37.7% | 66.5% | 0.57× | 2.65 |
| Draw (1:0) | 18.1% | 17.1% | 16.5% | 1.03× | 5.85 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 (2:0) | 55.3% | 62.0% | 82.9% | 0.75× | 1.61 |
| Mainz 05 (2:0) | 28.0% | 23.8% | 7.3% | 3.27× | 4.20 |
| Draw (2:0) | 16.7% | 15.7% | 10.0% | 1.57× | 6.36 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 51.5% | 50.4% | 47.3% | 1.07× | 1.99 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 30.9% | 29.0% | 26.0% | 1.12× | 3.44 |
| Halves equal | 17.6% | 19.6% | 26.9% | 0.73× | 5.10 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 to concede | 95.9% | 95.3% | 74.5% | 1.28× | 1.05 |
| Schalke 04 clean sheet | 4.1% | 4.7% | 25.5% | 0.18× | 21.48 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 to concede in 1st half | 74.8% | 68.1% | 45.6% | 1.49× | 1.47 |
| Schalke 04 clean sheet in 1st half | 25.2% | 31.9% | 54.4% | 0.59× | 3.13 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 to concede in 2nd half | 83.6% | 83.8% | 56.8% | 1.47× | 1.19 |
| Schalke 04 clean sheet in 2nd half | 16.4% | 16.2% | 43.2% | 0.38× | 6.17 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 over 2.5 corners | 78.4% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Schalke 04 under 6.5 corners | 78.5% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Schalke 04 under 5.5 corners | 67.3% | 66.7% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Schalke 04 over 3.5 corners | 62.9% | 62.2% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Schalke 04 under 4.5 corners | 53.1% | 52.6% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Schalke 04 over 4.5 corners | 46.9% | 47.4% | — | — | 2.11 |
| Schalke 04 under 3.5 corners | 37.1% | 37.8% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Schalke 04 over 5.5 corners | 32.7% | 33.3% | — | — | 3.01 |
| Schalke 04 under 2.5 corners | 21.6% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
| Schalke 04 over 6.5 corners | 21.5% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 under 3.5 goals | 87.1% | 87.3% | 88.5% | 0.99× | 1.15 |
| Schalke 04 over 0.5 goals | 85.4% | 87.3% | 79.2% | 1.10× | 1.15 |
| Schalke 04 under 2.5 goals | 69.7% | 68.0% | 72.4% | 0.94× | 1.47 |
| Schalke 04 over 1.5 goals | 57.3% | 58.7% | 50.7% | 1.16× | 1.71 |
| Schalke 04 under 1.5 goals | 42.7% | 41.3% | 49.3% | 0.84× | 2.42 |
| Schalke 04 over 2.5 goals | 30.3% | 32.0% | 27.6% | 1.16× | 3.12 |
| Schalke 04 under 0.5 goals | 14.6% | 12.8% | 20.8% | 0.61× | 7.84 |
| Schalke 04 over 3.5 goals | 12.9% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 1.10× | 7.85 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 under 1.5 in 1st half | 78.2% | 77.2% | 80.5% | 0.96× | 1.30 |
| Schalke 04 over 0.5 in 1st half | 58.2% | 57.4% | 52.1% | 1.10× | 1.74 |
| Schalke 04 under 0.5 in 1st half | 41.8% | 42.6% | 47.9% | 0.89× | 2.35 |
| Schalke 04 over 1.5 in 1st half | 21.8% | 22.8% | 19.5% | 1.17× | 4.38 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 scores more in 2nd half | 39.0% | 37.9% | 38.1% | 0.99× | 2.64 |
| Schalke 04 scores equally in both | 31.4% | 33.1% | 36.6% | 0.90× | 3.02 |
| Schalke 04 scores more in 1st half | 29.6% | 27.9% | 25.4% | 1.10× | 3.59 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 (home no bet) | 79.9% | 78.2% | 57.6% | 1.36× | 1.28 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 20.1% | 21.8% | 42.4% | 0.51× | 4.59 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 even goals | 51.1% | 50.7% | 52.5% | 0.97× | 1.97 |
| Schalke 04 odd goals | 48.9% | 49.3% | 47.5% | 1.04× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any other HT score | 21.0% | 24.3% | 6.7% | 3.64× | 4.11 |
| HT 0-1 | 14.5% | 10.9% | 16.6% | 0.66× | 9.16 |
| HT 1-1 | 12.7% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 1.12× | 9.18 |
| HT 0-0 | 10.5% | 10.9% | 22.9% | 0.47× | 9.20 |
| HT 0-2 | 10.0% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 1.52× | 9.20 |
| HT 1-0 | 9.2% | 7.0% | 19.5% | 0.36× | 14.38 |
| HT 1-2 | 8.7% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 1.99× | 14.39 |
| HT 2-1 | 5.5% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 1.63× | 14.44 |
| HT 2-0 | 4.0% | 2.4% | 9.6% | 0.25× | 41.96 |
| HT 2-2 | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.74× | 41.98 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 at HT / Mainz 05 at FT | 41.8% | 42.4% | 20.4% | 2.08× | 2.36 |
| Draw at HT / Mainz 05 at FT | 15.2% | 16.7% | 9.9% | 1.69× | 5.97 |
| Schalke 04 at HT / Schalke 04 at FT | 12.9% | 12.7% | 28.3% | 0.45× | 7.88 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 6.4% | 6.0% | 13.7% | 0.44× | 16.69 |
| Draw at HT / Schalke 04 at FT | 6.0% | 6.0% | 10.6% | 0.56× | 16.70 |
| Schalke 04 at HT / Mainz 05 at FT | 5.9% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 1.64× | 16.71 |
| Schalke 04 at HT / Draw at FT | 5.0% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 0.66× | 28.66 |
| Mainz 05 at HT / Draw at FT | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 0.59× | 28.68 |
| Mainz 05 at HT / Schalke 04 at FT | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.04× | 28.75 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 to score last | 61.9% | 62.3% | 44.4% | 1.40× | 1.61 |
| Schalke 04 to score last | 37.5% | 38.9% | 50.0% | 0.78× | 2.57 |
| No goal scored | 0.6% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 0.72× | 23.99 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 99.4% | 95.8% | 94.2% | 1.02× | 1.04 |
| Mainz 05 to lead by 1 at any time | 80.1% | 87.1% | 52.3% | 1.67× | 1.15 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 75.3% | 77.9% | 55.9% | 1.39× | 1.28 |
| Mainz 05 to lead by 2 at any time | 56.6% | 55.0% | 23.6% | 2.33× | 1.82 |
| Schalke 04 to lead by 1 at any time | 48.4% | 44.5% | 60.2% | 0.74× | 2.25 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 42.7% | 39.1% | 25.5% | 1.53× | 2.56 |
| Mainz 05 to lead by 3 at any time | 35.0% | 30.0% | 10.0% | 2.99× | 3.34 |
| Schalke 04 to lead by 2 at any time | 20.7% | 19.7% | 33.1% | 0.59× | 5.08 |
| Schalke 04 to lead by 3 at any time | 7.7% | 6.7% | 15.7% | 0.43× | 14.87 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 most corners | 48.8% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Mainz 05 most corners | 39.4% | 39.3% | — | — | 2.54 |
| Corners level | 11.7% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.60 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-6 goals | 71.1% | 72.4% | 78.5% | 0.92× | 1.38 |
| 3-6 goals | 63.2% | 63.4% | 58.9% | 1.08× | 1.58 |
| 1-5 goals | 59.2% | 59.1% | 83.2% | 0.71× | 1.69 |
| 2-5 goals | 56.1% | 59.1% | 71.3% | 0.83× | 1.69 |
| 4-6 goals | 49.8% | 48.5% | 40.1% | 1.21× | 2.06 |
| 3-5 goals | 48.2% | 48.5% | 51.7% | 0.94× | 2.06 |
| 1-4 goals | 41.6% | 43.6% | 72.1% | 0.60× | 2.29 |
| 2-4 goals | 38.6% | 39.2% | 60.2% | 0.65× | 2.55 |
| 4-5 goals | 34.8% | 35.2% | 32.9% | 1.07× | 2.84 |
| 5-6 goals | 32.6% | 35.2% | 18.4% | 1.92× | 2.84 |
| 3-4 goals | 30.7% | 35.2% | 40.7% | 0.87× | 2.84 |
| 7+ goals | 25.2% | 30.2% | 4.1% | 7.38× | 3.31 |
| 1-3 goals | 24.4% | 24.5% | 50.4% | 0.49× | 4.08 |
| 2-3 goals | 21.4% | 24.5% | 38.5% | 0.64× | 4.08 |
| 1-2 goals | 11.0% | 14.8% | 31.6% | 0.47× | 6.75 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 never behind | 51.0% | 62.7% | 39.8% | 1.58× | 1.59 |
| Schalke 04 never behind | 19.3% | 18.6% | 47.7% | 0.39× | 5.38 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 50.0% | 50.9% | 45.2% | 1.13× | 1.96 |
| Even number of goals | 50.0% | 49.1% | 54.8% | 0.90× | 2.04 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 50.6% | 51.6% | 52.4% | 0.98× | 1.94 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 49.4% | 48.4% | 47.6% | 1.02× | 2.07 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 50.2% | 51.9% | 52.9% | 0.98× | 1.93 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 49.8% | 48.1% | 47.1% | 1.02× | 2.08 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 99.4% | 95.4% | 94.2% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 96.3% | 95.4% | 82.4% | 1.16× | 1.05 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 88.4% | 87.6% | 62.8% | 1.39× | 1.14 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 75.0% | 72.5% | 44.0% | 1.65× | 1.38 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 59.8% | 58.6% | 88.8% | 0.66× | 1.71 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 57.8% | 58.6% | 22.3% | 2.63× | 1.71 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 42.2% | 41.4% | 77.7% | 0.53× | 2.42 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 40.2% | 41.4% | 11.2% | 3.68× | 2.42 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 25.0% | 27.5% | 56.0% | 0.49× | 3.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 11.6% | 12.4% | 37.2% | 0.33× | 8.07 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.7% | 4.6% | 17.6% | 0.26× | 21.91 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 0.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 0.79× | 21.96 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 96.0% | 97.2% | 78.1% | 1.24× | 1.03 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 86.6% | 86.7% | 54.2% | 1.60× | 1.15 |
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 70.4% | 72.4% | 95.6% | 0.76× | 1.38 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 69.8% | 67.4% | 28.5% | 2.37× | 1.48 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 51.3% | 51.9% | 87.4% | 0.59× | 1.93 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 48.7% | 48.1% | 12.6% | 3.81× | 2.08 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 30.3% | 32.6% | 71.5% | 0.46× | 3.07 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 29.6% | 27.6% | 4.4% | 6.26× | 3.62 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 13.4% | 13.3% | 45.8% | 0.29× | 7.53 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 4.0% | 2.8% | 21.9% | 0.13× | 35.64 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 89.5% | 89.1% | 77.1% | 1.16× | 1.12 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 65.8% | 68.5% | 41.3% | 1.66× | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 60.9% | 63.1% | 84.7% | 0.75× | 1.58 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 39.1% | 36.9% | 15.4% | 2.40× | 2.71 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 34.2% | 31.5% | 58.7% | 0.54× | 3.17 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 10.5% | 10.9% | 22.9% | 0.48× | 9.15 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 94.3% | 91.2% | 84.8% | 1.08× | 1.10 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 77.8% | 79.5% | 55.8% | 1.43× | 1.26 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 54.4% | 52.7% | 27.1% | 1.95× | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 45.6% | 47.3% | 72.9% | 0.65× | 2.11 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 22.2% | 20.5% | 44.2% | 0.46× | 4.88 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 5.7% | 8.8% | 15.2% | 0.58× | 11.33 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 to score in both halves | 62.5% | 63.7% | 28.0% | 2.28× | 1.57 |
| Schalke 04 not to score in both halves | 62.1% | 63.6% | 64.1% | 0.99× | 1.57 |
| Schalke 04 to score in both halves | 37.9% | 36.4% | 35.9% | 1.01× | 2.75 |
| Mainz 05 not to score in both halves | 37.5% | 36.3% | 72.0% | 0.50× | 2.75 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 81.9% | 76.0% | 59.5% | 1.28× | 1.32 |
| Only Mainz 05 scores | 14.0% | 11.0% | 15.2% | 0.73× | 9.07 |
| Only Schalke 04 scores | 3.5% | 4.6% | 19.9% | 0.23× | 21.71 |
| Neither team scores | 0.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 0.79× | 21.84 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 or more goals | 40.2% | 37.6% | 11.2% | 3.35× | 2.66 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 17.6% | 17.5% | 11.2% | 1.55× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 17.2% | 17.5% | 21.9% | 0.80× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 13.5% | 12.1% | 19.0% | 0.64× | 8.25 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 7.9% | 7.6% | 19.7% | 0.39× | 13.12 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 3.1% | 4.5% | 12.0% | 0.37× | 22.43 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 0.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 0.77× | 22.47 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 39.1% | 37.3% | 15.4% | 2.43× | 2.68 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 26.7% | 28.4% | 26.1% | 1.09× | 3.52 |
| 1 goal in 1st half | 23.7% | 21.5% | 35.9% | 0.60× | 4.65 |
| No goals in 1st half | 10.5% | 10.8% | 22.9% | 0.47× | 9.23 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 77.8% | 74.2% | 55.8% | 1.33× | 1.35 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 16.4% | 16.6% | 29.2% | 0.57× | 6.02 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 5.7% | 9.0% | 15.2% | 0.59× | 11.16 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 not to win both halves | 94.8% | 94.2% | 83.9% | 1.12× | 1.06 |
| Mainz 05 not to win both halves | 73.2% | 72.7% | 90.7% | 0.80× | 1.38 |
| Mainz 05 to win both halves | 26.8% | 27.3% | 9.3% | 2.95× | 3.66 |
| Schalke 04 to win both halves | 5.2% | 5.8% | 16.1% | 0.36× | 17.32 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 to win either half | 76.9% | 79.6% | 49.4% | 1.61× | 1.26 |
| Schalke 04 to win neither half | 59.5% | 59.1% | 41.9% | 1.41× | 1.69 |
| Schalke 04 to win either half | 40.5% | 40.9% | 58.1% | 0.70× | 2.45 |
| Mainz 05 to win neither half | 23.1% | 20.4% | 50.6% | 0.40× | 4.91 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 not to win to nil | 96.5% | 96.1% | 80.1% | 1.20× | 1.04 |
| Mainz 05 not to win to nil | 86.0% | 88.1% | 84.8% | 1.04× | 1.14 |
| Mainz 05 to win to nil | 14.0% | 11.9% | 15.2% | 0.78× | 8.42 |
| Schalke 04 to win to nil | 3.5% | 3.9% | 19.9% | 0.20× | 25.77 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 by 3+ | 28.0% | 27.9% | 7.3% | 3.83× | 3.59 |
| Mainz 05 by 1 | 18.1% | 17.0% | 16.5% | 1.03× | 5.87 |
| Mainz 05 by 2 | 16.7% | 17.0% | 10.0% | 1.70× | 5.87 |
| Draw | 15.8% | 17.0% | 24.7% | 0.69× | 5.87 |
| Schalke 04 by 1 | 10.9% | 11.7% | 17.3% | 0.68× | 8.52 |
| Schalke 04 by 2 | 6.1% | 7.2% | 12.9% | 0.56× | 13.90 |
| Schalke 04 by 3+ | 4.3% | 2.7% | 12.0% | 0.23× | 36.70 |
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Schalke 04 0.41 xGMainz 05 1.57 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Schalke 04 attacking right
Mainz 05 attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 0' |
Mainz 05 |
Sheraldo Becker | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jae-Sung Lee |
| 0' |
Mainz 05 |
Sheraldo Becker | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 5' |
 Schalke 04 |
Kenan Karaman | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Timo Becker |
| 15' |
Schalke 04 |
Adrian Gantenbein | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Schalke 04 |
Adrian Gantenbein | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Anthony Caci |
| 31' |
Mainz 05 |
Sheraldo Becker | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 34' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sheraldo Becker |
| 48' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Phillip Tietz |
| 62' |
Schalke 04 |
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
Mainz 05 |
Sheraldo Becker | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Schalke 04 |
Satoshi Tanaka | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kenan Karaman |
| 76' |
Schalke 04 |
Hasan Kuruçay | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Robin Gosens |
| 77' |
Schalke 04 |
Kenan Karaman | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Junior Adamu |
| 80' |
Schalke 04 |
Soufiane El-Faouzi | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Schalke 04 |
Hee-Chan Hwang | 0.18 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Maximilian Wöber |
| 85' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kaishu Sano |
| 88' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kaishu Sano |
Players
Mainz 05
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Tietz FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.07 | 0.69 |
| Philipp Mwene DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kaishu Sano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Kacper Potulski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefan Posch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Danny da Costa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Caci DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| Alexander Schwolow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nadiem Amiri MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Sheraldo Becker FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.74 | 0.11 | 0.82 |
| Jae-Sung Lee MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.28 | 0.46 |
| Ransford Königsdörffer Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Paul Nebel Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eric Martel Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lennard Maloney Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Silvan Widmer Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Schalke 04
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satoshi Tanaka MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Kenan Karaman AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Hasan Kuruçay DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Soufiane El-Faouzi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Timo Becker DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| Loris Karius GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Robin Gosens DML | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Nikola Katic DC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adil Aouchiche AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrian Gantenbein DMR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Edin Dzeko FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hee-Chan Hwang Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Junior Adamu Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Maximilian Wöber Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| Vitalie Becker Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |