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Seattle Sounders FC v Houston Dynamo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 29 October 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627

USA-MLS results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Seattle Sounders FC win
31.2%
model 32.1%
Draw
29.0%
model 29.4%
Houston Dynamo win
39.9%
model 38.5%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 13.8%
  2. 0-1 11.2%
  3. 0-0 10.3%
  4. 1-0 9.9%
  5. 1-2 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.541.5% Under 2.558.5%
BTTS yes48.2% BTTS no51.8%
Seattle Sounders FC 1+66.9% Seattle Sounders FC 2+30.3%
Houston Dynamo 1+71.0% Houston Dynamo 2+35.1%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.24. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
60/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Under 2.5 goals
Over/Under · usually 40%
57.3% fair odds 1.75
strong signal · 1220 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Seattle Sounders FC not to win to nil
Win to nil · usually 79%
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Houston Dynamo carry the stronger rating, 1561 Elo against 1458.
  • Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Houston Dynamo have an estimated 39.9% win probability, against 31.2% for Seattle Sounders FC and 29.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.11 for Seattle Sounders FC and 1.24 for Houston Dynamo.

Why Seattle Sounders FC

Nothing in the data singles out Seattle Sounders FC.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.0%. A combined 2.34 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.11 to 1.24. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Houston Dynamo can win

Houston Dynamo carry the stronger rating, 1561 Elo against 1458. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Seattle Sounders FC, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Houston Dynamo, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Seattle Sounders FC: 42% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Houston Dynamo: 49% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Houston Dynamo are the model's most likely outcome at 39.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.8%. Confidence 60/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

333 sports channels, playing now →

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.11–1.24 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.09–1.15 1-1 14% 39% 46%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo to win 36.5% 36.3% 30.0% 1.21× 2.75
Seattle Sounders FC to win 33.3% 30.4% 45.3% 0.67× 3.29
Draw 30.2% 30.4% 24.8% 1.22× 3.29
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo & not both score 22.4% 21.8% 12.1% 1.81× 4.59
Seattle Sounders FC & not both score 20.3% 21.8% 21.1% 1.03× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 18.9% 18.0% 19.2% 0.94× 5.56
Houston Dynamo & both teams score 14.1% 13.3% 18.0% 0.74× 7.54
Seattle Sounders FC & both teams score 13.0% 13.3% 24.4% 0.54× 7.54
Draw & not both score 11.4% 13.3% 5.8% 2.31× 7.54
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo & under 3.5 29.1% 26.1% 18.8% 1.38× 3.84
Seattle Sounders FC & under 3.5 26.7% 26.1% 28.4% 0.92× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 25.4% 26.0% 16.0% 1.63× 3.84
Draw & under 3.5 25.4% 26.0% 16.0% 1.63× 3.84
Houston Dynamo & over 1.5 24.9% 21.6% 23.7% 0.91× 4.63
Seattle Sounders FC & over 1.5 22.4% 21.6% 37.2% 0.58× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 18.9% 18.0% 19.2% 0.94× 5.55
Houston Dynamo & under 2.5 18.7% 18.0% 9.6% 1.88× 5.55
Houston Dynamo & over 2.5 17.8% 18.0% 20.5% 0.88× 5.55
Seattle Sounders FC & under 2.5 17.2% 18.0% 14.4% 1.25× 5.56
Seattle Sounders FC & over 2.5 16.1% 18.0% 31.0% 0.58× 5.56
Draw & under 1.5 11.4% 12.8% 5.8% 2.23× 7.79
Houston Dynamo & under 1.5 11.6% 12.8% 6.4% 2.00× 7.79
Seattle Sounders FC & under 1.5 10.9% 12.8% 8.2% 1.56× 7.79
Houston Dynamo & over 3.5 7.5% 7.9% 11.3% 0.70× 12.63
Seattle Sounders FC & over 3.5 6.5% 7.9% 17.0% 0.47× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 4.8% 4.8% 8.9% 0.54× 20.81
Draw & over 3.5 4.8% 4.8% 8.9% 0.54× 20.81
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo (1UP) 51.1% 52.3% — — 1.91
Seattle Sounders FC (1UP) 48.2% 43.9% — — 2.28
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo (2UP) 36.5% 37.3% — — 2.68
Seattle Sounders FC (2UP) 33.3% 30.3% — — 3.30
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 40.3% 41.8% — — 2.39
Houston Dynamo to win 2nd half 32.1% 34.0% — — 2.94
Seattle Sounders FC to win 2nd half 27.6% 26.1% — — 3.83
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo under 1.5 in 2nd half 84.7% 84.2% — — 1.19
Houston Dynamo under 0.5 in 2nd half 50.1% 52.4% — — 1.91
Houston Dynamo over 0.5 in 2nd half 49.9% 47.6% — — 2.10
Houston Dynamo over 1.5 in 2nd half 15.3% 15.8% — — 6.34
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC under 1.5 in 2nd half 87.2% 88.7% — — 1.13
Seattle Sounders FC under 0.5 in 2nd half 53.8% 55.0% — — 1.82
Seattle Sounders FC over 0.5 in 2nd half 46.2% 45.0% — — 2.22
Seattle Sounders FC over 1.5 in 2nd half 12.8% 11.3% — — 8.88
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo (+2.5) 95.9% 96.3% 89.4% 1.08× 1.04
Houston Dynamo (+1.5) 86.6% 88.5% 76.8% 1.15× 1.13
Houston Dynamo (+0.5) 66.7% 68.7% 54.7% 1.26× 1.46
Seattle Sounders FC (+0.5) 63.5% 63.0% 70.0% 0.90× 1.59
Houston Dynamo (-0.5) 36.5% 37.0% 30.0% 1.24× 2.70
Seattle Sounders FC (-0.5) 33.3% 31.3% 45.3% 0.69× 3.19
Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5) 13.4% 11.5% 23.2% 0.50× 8.67
Seattle Sounders FC (-2.5) 4.1% 3.7% 10.6% 0.35× 27.08
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo to concede 66.2% 72.3% 82.3% 0.88× 1.38
Houston Dynamo clean sheet 33.8% 27.7% 17.7% 1.57× 3.61
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo clean sheet in 1st half 62.7% 64.7% — — 1.55
Houston Dynamo to concede in 1st half 37.3% 35.3% — — 2.83
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo clean sheet in 2nd half 53.8% 54.5% — — 1.84
Houston Dynamo to concede in 2nd half 46.2% 45.5% — — 2.20
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo under 6.5 corners 80.9% 81.4% — — 1.23
Houston Dynamo over 2.5 corners 75.5% 76.0% — — 1.32
Houston Dynamo under 5.5 corners 70.4% 71.6% — — 1.40
Houston Dynamo over 3.5 corners 59.3% 57.2% — — 1.75
Houston Dynamo under 4.5 corners 56.7% 57.2% — — 1.75
Houston Dynamo over 4.5 corners 43.3% 42.8% — — 2.34
Houston Dynamo under 3.5 corners 40.7% 42.8% — — 2.34
Houston Dynamo over 5.5 corners 29.6% 28.4% — — 3.52
Houston Dynamo under 2.5 corners 24.5% 24.0% — — 4.17
Houston Dynamo over 6.5 corners 19.1% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo under 3.5 goals 97.0% 97.5% 94.0% 1.04× 1.03
Houston Dynamo under 2.5 goals 89.0% 87.8% 83.3% 1.05× 1.14
Houston Dynamo over 0.5 goals 68.4% 68.0% 73.3% 0.93× 1.47
Houston Dynamo under 1.5 goals 68.0% 68.0% 61.2% 1.11× 1.47
Houston Dynamo over 1.5 goals 32.0% 32.0% 38.8% 0.82× 3.13
Houston Dynamo under 0.5 goals 31.6% 32.0% 26.7% 1.20× 3.13
Houston Dynamo over 2.5 goals 11.0% 12.2% 16.7% 0.73× 8.21
Houston Dynamo over 3.5 goals 3.0% 2.5% 6.0% 0.42× 39.82
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo under 1.5 in 1st half 92.2% 93.9% — — 1.07
Houston Dynamo under 0.5 in 1st half 63.1% 63.3% — — 1.58
Houston Dynamo over 0.5 in 1st half 36.9% 36.8% — — 2.72
Houston Dynamo over 1.5 in 1st half 7.8% 6.1% — — 16.43
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo scores equally in both 42.5% 43.6% — — 2.29
Houston Dynamo scores more in 2nd half 36.1% 37.3% — — 2.68
Houston Dynamo scores more in 1st half 21.4% 21.8% — — 4.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC (away no bet) 52.4% 51.7% 64.6% 0.80× 1.94
Draw (away no bet) 47.6% 48.3% 35.4% 1.37× 2.07
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo even goals 55.0% 56.9% 53.6% 1.06× 1.76
Houston Dynamo odd goals 45.0% 43.1% 46.4% 0.93× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 91.1% 91.3% — — 1.10
Both halves over 1.5 goals 8.9% 8.7% — — 11.56
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 52.8% 50.9% — — 1.96
Both halves under 1.5 goals 47.2% 49.1% — — 2.04
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 45.3% 46.0% — — 2.17
Houston Dynamo to score 2+ in a row 25.7% 24.9% — — 4.02
Seattle Sounders FC to score 2+ in a row 23.4% 19.5% — — 5.12
Either team to score 3+ in a row 13.3% 12.2% — — 8.21
Houston Dynamo to score 3+ in a row 7.3% 5.5% — — 18.18
Seattle Sounders FC to score 3+ in a row 6.2% 5.5% — — 18.27
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC corners (+3.5) 88.8% 84.5% — — 1.18
Seattle Sounders FC corners (+2.5) 83.0% 79.8% — — 1.25
Seattle Sounders FC corners (+1.5) 75.5% 74.8% — — 1.34
Houston Dynamo corners (+3.5) 74.0% 70.8% — — 1.41
Houston Dynamo corners (+2.5) 65.0% 65.9% — — 1.52
Houston Dynamo corners (+1.5) 54.8% 52.4% — — 1.91
Seattle Sounders FC corners (-1.5) 45.2% 47.6% — — 2.10
Seattle Sounders FC corners (-2.5) 35.0% 34.1% — — 2.93
Seattle Sounders FC corners (-3.5) 26.0% 29.2% — — 3.42
Houston Dynamo corners (-1.5) 24.6% 25.2% — — 3.97
Houston Dynamo corners (-2.5) 17.0% 20.2% — — 4.95
Houston Dynamo corners (-3.5) 11.2% 15.5% — — 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 38.9% 34.0% — — 2.94
12+ corners 31.7% 33.2% — — 3.01
9-11 corners 29.5% 31.2% — — 3.21
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 76.1% 76.6% — — 1.31
Over 7.5 corners 71.3% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 68.3% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 61.1% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 59.3% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 50.7% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 49.3% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 40.7% 42.1% — — 2.37
Under 8.5 corners 38.9% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 11.5 corners 31.7% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 7.5 corners 28.7% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 23.9% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 14.1% 11.5% 10.4% 1.11× 8.71
0-0 11.4% 11.5% 5.8% 2.00× 8.72
0-1 11.6% 11.5% 6.4% 1.79× 8.71
1-0 10.9% 11.5% 8.2% 1.39× 8.72
0-2 7.1% 7.4% 3.3% 2.26× 13.51
1-2 7.7% 7.4% 7.7% 0.97× 13.51
2-1 7.2% 7.4% 10.0% 0.74× 13.51
2-0 6.3% 7.4% 6.3% 1.17× 13.51
3-0 2.3% 1.7% 4.2% 0.41× 58.31
3-1 2.6% 1.7% 4.8% 0.35× 58.30
3-2 1.5% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.31
3-3 0.6% 1.7% 2.6% 0.66× 58.32
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.7% 2.54× 58.32
4-0 0.6% 1.7% 1.2% 1.38× 58.32
4-1 0.7% 1.7% 2.4% 0.72× 58.32
4-2 0.4% 1.7% 1.6% 1.09× 58.32
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2.17× 58.32
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.5% 3.80× 58.32
Any other score 1.2% 1.7% 4.7% 0.36× 58.31
0-3 2.7% 1.7% 1.8% 0.95× 58.30
0-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.8% 2.17× 58.31
1-3 2.9% 1.7% 3.4% 0.51× 58.30
1-4 0.8% 1.7% 1.4% 1.27× 58.31
2-2 4.2% 1.7% 6.1% 0.28× 58.30
2-3 1.6% 1.7% 2.6% 0.66× 58.31
2-4 0.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.01× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo (2nd half DNB) 53.7% 54.7% — — 1.83
Seattle Sounders FC (2nd half DNB) 46.3% 45.3% — — 2.21
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC leading at HT (DNB) 50.4% 55.9% — — 1.79
Houston Dynamo leading at HT (DNB) 49.6% 44.1% — — 2.27
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC or Houston Dynamo (12) 69.8% 69.6% 75.2% 0.93× 1.44
Houston Dynamo or draw (X2) 66.7% 69.6% 54.7% 1.27× 1.44
Seattle Sounders FC or draw (1X) 63.5% 63.7% 70.0% 0.91× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC or draw at HT 74.6% 74.6% — — 1.34
Houston Dynamo or draw at HT 74.2% 74.5% — — 1.34
Seattle Sounders FC or Houston Dynamo at HT 51.2% 48.5% — — 2.06
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo or draw (1UP) 66.7% 76.3% — — 1.31
Seattle Sounders FC or draw (1UP) 63.5% 71.7% — — 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo or draw in 2nd half 72.4% 73.9% — — 1.35
Seattle Sounders FC or draw in 2nd half 67.9% 66.0% — — 1.52
Seattle Sounders FC or Houston Dynamo in 2nd half 59.7% 58.2% — — 1.72
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 68.7% 68.4% — — 1.46
Neither half drawn 31.3% 31.6% — — 3.16
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo (DNB) 52.3% 50.9% 39.8% 1.28× 1.97
Seattle Sounders FC (DNB) 47.7% 49.1% 60.2% 0.82× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo to score first 45.6% 45.8% — — 2.19
Seattle Sounders FC to score first 43.0% 41.7% — — 2.40
No goal scored 11.4% 9.6% — — 10.44
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 54.0% 51.3% 38.7% 1.33× 1.95
Both teams to score 46.0% 48.7% 61.3% 0.79× 2.05
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 47.2% 44.3% 29.5% 1.50× 2.26
Both score & over 2.5 31.9% 34.6% 51.1% 0.68× 2.89
Both score & under 2.5 14.1% 12.4% 10.4% 1.19× 8.08
Not both score & over 2.5 6.8% 8.3% 9.2% 0.90× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 90.5% 89.0% 79.5% 1.12× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 9.5% 11.0% 20.5% 0.54× 9.08
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 76.7% 75.1% — — 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 23.3% 24.9% — — 4.02
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 66.0% 63.2% — — 1.58
Both score 2nd half only 20.1% 21.1% — — 4.73
Both score 1st half only 10.7% 10.7% — — 9.33
Both score in both halves 3.2% 4.9% — — 20.52
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 86.1% 84.8% — — 1.18
Both teams to score by HT 13.9% 15.2% — — 6.58
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 55.5% 56.9% — — 1.76
A goal in each half 44.5% 43.1% — — 2.32
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.3% 47.2% 43.0% 1.10× 2.12
0-1 goals 33.9% 30.7% 20.2% 1.52× 3.25
4-6 goals 18.0% 20.2% 33.0% 0.61× 4.94
7+ goals 0.8% 1.8% 4.1% 0.45× 54.48
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo to score exactly 1 36.4% 35.9% 34.6% 1.04× 2.78
Houston Dynamo to score exactly 0 31.6% 33.8% 26.7% 1.27× 2.96
Houston Dynamo to score exactly 2 21.0% 22.3% 22.2% 1.00× 4.49
Houston Dynamo to score 3+ 11.0% 12.9% 16.7% 0.77× 7.77
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC to score exactly 1 36.7% 35.5% 31.1% 1.14× 2.81
Seattle Sounders FC to score exactly 0 33.8% 32.6% 17.7% 1.84× 3.07
Seattle Sounders FC to score exactly 2 19.9% 18.8% 26.4% 0.71× 5.32
Seattle Sounders FC to score 3+ 9.7% 10.4% 25.0% 0.41× 9.64
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 48.8% 51.5% — — 1.94
Seattle Sounders FC leading at HT 25.8% 25.5% — — 3.93
Houston Dynamo leading at HT 25.4% 25.4% — — 3.93
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo -1: 1 63.5% 62.6% — — 1.60
Houston Dynamo -1: X 21.0% 23.5% — — 4.25
Houston Dynamo -1: 2 15.5% 17.5% — — 5.72
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo (0:1) 66.7% 65.2% 54.7% 1.19× 1.53
Draw (0:1) 19.8% 17.8% 22.2% 0.80× 5.61
Seattle Sounders FC (0:1) 13.4% 13.7% 23.2% 0.59× 7.29
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo (0:2) 86.6% 87.1% 76.8% 1.13× 1.15
Draw (0:2) 9.4% 7.7% 12.7% 0.60× 13.04
Seattle Sounders FC (0:2) 4.1% 3.8% 10.6% 0.35× 26.66
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo (0:3) 95.9% 96.6% 89.4% 1.08× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 3.1% 2.4% 6.7% 0.36× 42.00
Seattle Sounders FC (0:3) 1.0% 2.4% 4.1% 0.59× 42.10
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo (0:4) 99.0% 98.1% 95.9% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.8% 1.2% 2.0% 0.60× 81.81
Seattle Sounders FC (0:4) 0.2% 1.2% 2.1% 0.57× 81.88
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC (1:0) 63.5% 65.3% 70.0% 0.93× 1.53
Draw (1:0) 21.0% 21.7% 17.1% 1.26× 4.61
Houston Dynamo (1:0) 15.5% 17.1% 13.0% 1.32× 5.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC (2:0) 84.5% 84.6% 87.0% 0.97× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 10.5% 10.3% 8.6% 1.20× 9.73
Houston Dynamo (2:0) 4.9% 2.3% 4.5% 0.51× 43.62
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 44.8% 45.8% — — 2.19
Halves equal 29.2% 26.3% — — 3.81
1st half highest scoring 26.0% 26.2% — — 3.81
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC to concede 68.4% 66.7% 73.3% 0.91× 1.50
Seattle Sounders FC clean sheet 31.6% 33.3% 26.7% 1.25× 3.00
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC clean sheet in 1st half 63.1% 63.2% — — 1.58
Seattle Sounders FC to concede in 1st half 36.9% 36.8% — — 2.72
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC clean sheet in 2nd half 50.1% 52.5% — — 1.91
Seattle Sounders FC to concede in 2nd half 49.9% 47.5% — — 2.10
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC over 2.5 corners 85.3% 86.2% — — 1.16
Seattle Sounders FC over 3.5 corners 73.0% 71.9% — — 1.39
Seattle Sounders FC under 6.5 corners 67.0% 66.7% — — 1.50
Seattle Sounders FC over 4.5 corners 59.1% 57.5% — — 1.74
Seattle Sounders FC under 5.5 corners 54.7% 52.6% — — 1.90
Seattle Sounders FC over 5.5 corners 45.3% 47.4% — — 2.11
Seattle Sounders FC under 4.5 corners 40.9% 42.5% — — 2.35
Seattle Sounders FC over 6.5 corners 33.0% 33.3% — — 3.00
Seattle Sounders FC under 3.5 corners 27.0% 28.1% — — 3.56
Seattle Sounders FC under 2.5 corners 14.7% 13.8% — — 7.25
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC under 3.5 goals 97.5% 96.4% 90.6% 1.06× 1.04
Seattle Sounders FC under 2.5 goals 90.3% 92.2% 75.0% 1.23× 1.09
Seattle Sounders FC under 1.5 goals 70.4% 74.2% 48.7% 1.52× 1.35
Seattle Sounders FC over 0.5 goals 66.2% 67.9% 82.3% 0.83× 1.47
Seattle Sounders FC under 0.5 goals 33.8% 32.1% 17.7% 1.81× 3.12
Seattle Sounders FC over 1.5 goals 29.6% 25.8% 51.3% 0.50× 3.88
Seattle Sounders FC over 2.5 goals 9.7% 7.8% 25.0% 0.31× 12.81
Seattle Sounders FC over 3.5 goals 2.5% 3.6% 9.4% 0.39× 27.58
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC under 1.5 in 1st half 92.0% 94.7% — — 1.06
Seattle Sounders FC under 0.5 in 1st half 62.7% 64.5% — — 1.55
Seattle Sounders FC over 0.5 in 1st half 37.3% 35.6% — — 2.81
Seattle Sounders FC over 1.5 in 1st half 8.0% 5.3% — — 18.92
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC scores equally in both 44.2% 41.7% — — 2.40
Seattle Sounders FC scores more in 2nd half 32.9% 33.3% — — 3.01
Seattle Sounders FC scores more in 1st half 22.9% 21.1% — — 4.75
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo (home no bet) 54.7% 51.5% 54.7% 0.94× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 45.3% 48.5% 45.3% 1.07× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC even goals 55.7% 55.3% 51.0% 1.08× 1.81
Seattle Sounders FC odd goals 44.3% 44.7% 49.0% 0.91× 2.24
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 39.7% 38.9% — — 2.57
HT 1-0 18.4% 18.6% — — 5.38
HT 0-1 18.1% 18.6% — — 5.38
HT 1-1 8.6% 6.9% — — 14.52
HT 0-2 4.2% 2.4% — — 42.13
HT 2-0 4.3% 2.4% — — 42.12
Any other HT score 2.3% 2.4% — — 42.25
HT 1-2 2.0% 2.4% — — 42.27
HT 2-1 2.0% 2.4% — — 42.27
HT 2-2 0.5% 2.4% — — 42.37
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 20.4% 21.5% — — 4.65
Houston Dynamo at HT / Houston Dynamo at FT 19.2% 16.8% — — 5.96
Seattle Sounders FC at HT / Seattle Sounders FC at FT 18.6% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / Houston Dynamo at FT 15.2% 16.7% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Seattle Sounders FC at FT 13.1% 12.7% — — 7.89
Seattle Sounders FC at HT / Draw at FT 5.2% 6.0% — — 16.54
Houston Dynamo at HT / Draw at FT 4.6% 3.5% — — 28.85
Seattle Sounders FC at HT / Houston Dynamo at FT 2.0% 3.5% — — 28.95
Houston Dynamo at HT / Seattle Sounders FC at FT 1.6% 3.5% — — 28.96
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo to score last 45.6% 46.2% — — 2.16
Seattle Sounders FC to score last 43.0% 40.1% — — 2.50
No goal scored 11.4% 9.0% — — 11.14
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 88.6% 91.5% — — 1.09
Houston Dynamo to lead by 1 at any time 51.1% 50.6% — — 1.98
Seattle Sounders FC to lead by 1 at any time 48.2% 44.3% — — 2.26
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 37.8% 34.8% — — 2.87
Houston Dynamo to lead by 2 at any time 20.0% 19.5% — — 5.14
Seattle Sounders FC to lead by 2 at any time 17.8% 14.8% — — 6.74
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 11.3% 10.6% — — 9.45
Houston Dynamo to lead by 3 at any time 6.1% 6.6% — — 15.10
Seattle Sounders FC to lead by 3 at any time 5.1% 6.6% — — 15.14
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC most corners 55.9% 55.6% — — 1.80
Houston Dynamo most corners 33.8% 34.4% — — 2.90
Corners level 10.4% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.9% 87.4% 83.4% 1.05× 1.14
1-4 goals 81.0% 83.4% 73.2% 1.14× 1.20
1-3 goals 69.8% 68.8% 57.4% 1.20× 1.45
2-6 goals 65.3% 68.8% 75.9% 0.91× 1.45
2-5 goals 63.5% 63.3% 69.0% 0.92× 1.58
2-4 goals 58.5% 59.1% 58.7% 1.01× 1.69
1-2 goals 49.9% 48.4% 34.2% 1.42× 2.06
2-3 goals 47.3% 48.4% 43.0% 1.13× 2.06
3-6 goals 37.9% 39.2% 56.3% 0.70× 2.55
3-5 goals 36.0% 39.2% 49.4% 0.79× 2.55
3-4 goals 31.1% 35.2% 39.1% 0.90× 2.84
4-6 goals 18.0% 18.8% 33.0% 0.57× 5.31
4-5 goals 16.1% 18.8% 26.2% 0.72× 5.31
5-6 goals 6.8% 8.9% 17.2% 0.51× 11.26
7+ goals 0.8% 2.5% 4.1% 0.63× 39.23
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Houston Dynamo never behind 40.4% 48.6% — — 2.06
Seattle Sounders FC never behind 37.5% 44.2% — — 2.26
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.0% 50.9% 50.5% 1.01× 1.97
Even number of goals 52.0% 49.1% 49.5% 0.99× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 58.1% 57.9% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 41.9% 42.1% — — 2.38
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 54.1% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 45.9% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 97.3% 95.4% 89.1% 1.07× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 92.3% 92.3% 78.8% 1.17× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 88.6% 87.6% 94.3% 0.93× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 81.2% 82.3% 63.0% 1.31× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 66.1% 66.3% 79.8% 0.83× 1.51
Under 2.5 goals 61.3% 61.7% 39.8% 1.55× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 38.7% 38.3% 60.2% 0.64× 2.61
Under 1.5 goals 33.9% 33.7% 20.2% 1.67× 2.97
Over 3.5 goals 18.8% 17.7% 37.0% 0.48× 5.65
Under 0.5 goals 11.4% 12.4% 5.8% 2.16× 8.07
Over 4.5 goals 7.7% 7.7% 21.2% 0.36× 12.93
Over 5.5 goals 2.7% 4.6% 10.9% 0.42× 21.83
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.2% 97.2% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 97.2% 97.2% 87.8% 1.11× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 91.4% 92.4% 74.8% 1.23× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 76.5% 75.9% 51.8% 1.46× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 53.3% 51.9% 74.9% 0.69× 1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 46.7% 48.1% 25.1% 1.92× 2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 23.5% 24.1% 48.2% 0.50× 4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 8.6% 7.6% 25.2% 0.30× 13.18
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 2.8% 2.8% 12.2% 0.23× 35.60
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.8% 2.8% 4.4% 0.64× 35.66
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 93.3% 92.9% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 76.1% 78.1% — — 1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half 60.3% 63.3% — — 1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half 39.7% 36.7% — — 2.73
Over 1.5 in 1st half 23.9% 21.9% — — 4.57
Over 2.5 in 1st half 6.7% 7.1% — — 14.01
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 85.5% 85.2% — — 1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 72.8% 77.8% — — 1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 62.1% 61.4% — — 1.63
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 37.9% 38.6% — — 2.59
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 27.2% 22.2% — — 4.51
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 14.5% 14.8% — — 6.77
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC not to score in both halves 82.8% 84.3% — — 1.19
Houston Dynamo not to score in both halves 81.6% 84.3% — — 1.19
Houston Dynamo to score in both halves 18.4% 15.7% — — 6.36
Seattle Sounders FC to score in both halves 17.2% 15.7% — — 6.38
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 46.0% 50.6% 61.3% 0.83× 1.97
Only Houston Dynamo scores 22.4% 22.2% 12.1% 1.84× 4.50
Only Seattle Sounders FC scores 20.3% 22.2% 21.1% 1.05× 4.50
Neither team scores 11.4% 11.0% 5.8% 1.92× 9.07
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 27.4% 24.9% 19.7% 1.26× 4.02
Exactly 1 goals 22.5% 22.6% 14.5% 1.55× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 19.9% 17.5% 23.3% 0.75× 5.73
Exactly 0 goals 11.4% 12.1% 5.8% 2.11× 8.26
Exactly 4 goals 11.1% 12.1% 15.9% 0.76× 8.26
Exactly 5 goals 5.0% 4.5% 10.4% 0.43× 22.32
6 or more goals 2.7% 4.5% 10.9% 0.41× 22.36
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 39.7% 37.3% — — 2.68
1 goal in 1st half 36.4% 37.2% — — 2.69
2 goals in 1st half 17.1% 15.7% — — 6.37
3+ goals in 1st half 6.7% 7.1% — — 14.01
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 37.9% 39.8% — — 2.51
1 goal in 2nd half 34.9% 34.0% — — 2.94
No goals in 2nd half 27.2% 29.1% — — 3.44
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC not to win both halves 92.8% 94.2% — — 1.06
Houston Dynamo not to win both halves 91.8% 94.1% — — 1.06
Houston Dynamo to win both halves 8.2% 5.9% — — 17.06
Seattle Sounders FC to win both halves 7.2% 5.8% — — 17.13
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC to win neither half 53.8% 54.4% — — 1.84
Houston Dynamo to win neither half 50.8% 54.3% — — 1.84
Houston Dynamo to win either half 49.2% 45.7% — — 2.19
Seattle Sounders FC to win either half 46.2% 45.6% — — 2.19
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC not to win to nil 79.8% 78.2% 78.9% 0.99× 1.28
Houston Dynamo not to win to nil 77.6% 78.1% 87.9% 0.89× 1.28
Houston Dynamo to win to nil 22.4% 21.9% 12.1% 1.81× 4.57
Seattle Sounders FC to win to nil 20.3% 21.8% 21.1% 1.04× 4.58
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 30.2% 27.7% 24.8% 1.12× 3.61
Houston Dynamo by 1 21.0% 24.1% 17.1% 1.41× 4.15
Seattle Sounders FC by 1 19.8% 17.1% 22.2% 0.77× 5.87
Houston Dynamo by 2 10.5% 11.8% 8.6% 1.37× 8.51
Seattle Sounders FC by 2 9.4% 7.2% 12.7% 0.56× 13.90
Houston Dynamo by 3+ 4.9% 2.7% 4.5% 0.60× 36.82
Seattle Sounders FC by 3+ 4.1% 2.7% 10.6% 0.26× 36.84
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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